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Trend Analysıs of Temperature: a Case Study of Aegean Regıon, Turkey

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Trend Analysıs of Temperature: a Case Study of Aegean Regıon, Turkey International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) ISSN (Online): 2319-7064 Index Copernicus Value (2015): 78.96 | Impact Factor (2015): 6.391 Trend Analysıs of Temperature: A Case Study of Aegean Regıon, Turkey Bacanlı U.G.1, Tanrıkulu A.2 Abstract: Climate change was expected to have great impacts. The effects of climate change have direct implications on temperature regimes. The aim objective of this study was to investigate the trends of monthly and annual mean temperature datas of Aegean Region in Turkey. For this purpose used the 35 stations. These data sets were trend analyzed.To determine trends of datas non-parametric Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho, Sen method and parametric linear regression methods were used.The difference in monthly and annual changes were examined. Annual average temperature analyzes showed an increasing tendency in general, with an average trend of 85% in all methods. Monthly average temperature analyzes showed increasing temperature trends in May, June, July, August, September and October. In generaly, no significant trends have been observed outside of these months. The average rate of increase in ownership among these stations is 71%. Results of the temperature data trend show a general increasing trend. This results were indicator of effects of climate change and drought in Aegean Region. After the operating, managing and planning of water resources in the region should be taken into consideration of this effects of climate change and drought. Keywords: Linear regression, Mann-Kendall, Precipitation, Sen’s, Temperature, Trend analysis, Turkey 1. Introduction in Catalonia (NE Spain)by Serra et al. (2010).The results indicated generalized increasing annual trends of daily Tmax Continuously increasing human activities affect the andTmin (0.5 °C/decade). Severalperiods with an composition of the atmosphere to a significant extent. The outstanding number of stations showing significant positive sensitivity of Earth's climate depends on the future time trends are detected and analyzed duringthe spring and greenhouse-gas-induced warming.The increasing of summer seasons both for daily Tmax and Tmin. The only concentration of the long-lived greenhouse gases in the period with a relevant number of significantnegative trends atmosphere leads to global warming (Friedli et al., 1986; is detected in February for daily Tmin, thus implying a Lorius et al., 1990). The effects of global warming are significant increasing trend of DTR during this shortwinter evident from observations of increases in global average air period.Trends in daily maximum and minimum extreme and ocean temperatures (Viola et al., 2014).Global surface temperature indices have been analysed for 28 weather temperature has increased by about 0.3–0.6°C since the late stations in South Africa byKruger and Sekele (2012). The 19th century and about 0.2–0.3°C over the last 40 years in general result observed that warm extremes increased and the 20th century (Houghton et al., 1995). cold extremes decreased for all of the weather stations. However trends varied on a regional basis, both in Local and regional long-term temperature records are used magnitude and statistical significance.Safeeq et al. (2013) in climate variability investigations. Trends analysis examined trends in minimum and maximum temperatures in becomes the most commonly used technique to represent the the Oahu-Hawaii during the period of past 39(1969–2007) effect of the climate variability in regional and local basis and 25 (1983–2007) years. Trend in diurnal temperature (Kadıoglu, 1997).In climate assessment studies, trends are range (DTR) showed a decline during the past 39 years with statistical fundamental tools in the detection of climate a stronger decreasingtrend during the recent 25 years. variability. In the regarding the analysis of temperature Extreme temperature indices showed a general warming trends present from past to present many studies have been during the past 39 years.There has been significant increase carried out and maintained.Some of these are as follows. in tropical and warm nights at the two urban stations.Trends in maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature Karl et al. (1993) analysed monthly mean maximum and (Tmin) and mean temperature (Tmean) have been analysed minimum temperatures from countries comprising 37% of from 1961 to 2004 for 35 stations in the Godavari River the global landmass. They found that the minimum basin in Southern Peninsular India by Jhajharia et al.(2013). temperature increased over the period 1951–1990 by 0.84°C About 60% (45%) of the stations exhibited increasing trends (0.56°C) compared to only 0.28°C (0.33°C) increase in in Tmax (Tmin) in different durations. Results of tests of maximum temperatures.Kruger and Shongwe (2004) studied spatial and temporal homogeneity of trends by the Van Belle trends in South African temperaturesfor the period 1960 to and Hughes method showed that trends in temperature over 2003. A total of 23 stations showed positive trends in their the Godavari basin were not homogeneous for different annual mean maximum temperature series. Monthly trends months or at different stations.Almazroui etal. examined on of average annual temperatures showed large differences in 13 annual extreme indices for Saudi Arabia, using trend between stations,and for each station between months, observations from 27 surface stations with high-quality data but similar tendencies in trend between months were found for the period 1981–2010. The findings show that 92/89% of to exist for stations closeby and also for groups of stations the stations displayed a significant increase in the annual on a regional basis.Daily maximum and minimum occurrence of warm days/nights and 96/93% revealed a temperatures, Tmax and Tmin, and diurnal temperature significant decrease for the occurrence of cool days/nights range, DTR, are analyzed to detect significant daily time (Almazroui etal., 2014). Panda and Kumar (2014) analysed trends for the period 1975–2004for 37 temperature stations trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall and Volume 6 Issue 7, July 2017 www.ijsr.net Licensed Under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY Paper ID: ART20175255 DOI: 10.21275/ART20175255 431 International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) ISSN (Online): 2319-7064 Index Copernicus Value (2015): 78.96 | Impact Factor (2015): 6.391 temperature on the subdivision and regional scale for the northeast India. Trend analysis of rainfall data series for 1871–2008 did not show any clear trend for the region as a whole, although there are seasonal trends for some seasons and for some hydro-meteorological subdivisions. Similar analysis for temperature data showed that all the four temperature variables (maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures and temperature range) had rising trend. In this study, the temperature in the35stations of the Aegean Region for the period of the longest period1950-2015 and the shortest period 1971-2015 were analyzed statistically in different time series including averages of yearlyand monthly pattern. These data sets were trend analyzed by using linear regression analysis, Mann-Kendal, Rho and Sen’s methods. The difference in monthly and annual changes were examined. The work to be done here will provide significant contributions to the water resources of this region which are important for Turkey as agricultural. Figure 1: Aegean Region 2. Study Area and Data The dataset used in this study includes annual and monthly The Aegean region extends over an area of approximate (Tmean) temperature variable, recorded at 35 stations of the 85.000 km2, which is nearly 11% of the total geographical TurkishState Meteorological Service (TSMS) over the area of Turkey. The Aegean Region is one of the 7 longest period1950–2015 (Table 1).Missing temperature geographical regions of Turkey. It is bordered by the Aegean data at a station for time periodwere filled by the average Sea andlocated in western Turkey (Figure 1).The Aegean values of the nearest stations. Monthly average data of coastal plain has an exceptionally mild climate. The Aegean Tmean of all the 35 stations of the Aegean region are given region has perpendicular mountains to its shores and many in Table 2, which shows that the average mean temperature valleys between them. Although some of the provinces varies from 0.060C at Bolvadin the month of January to inland show also characteristics of continental climate 28.790C at Milas in the month of July (DMI). (Erinç, 1957; Bacanli, 2011). Table 1: Raingauge Stations in the Aegean Regions Volume 6 Issue 7, July 2017 www.ijsr.net Licensed Under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY Paper ID: ART20175255 DOI: 10.21275/ART20175255 432 International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) ISSN (Online): 2319-7064 Index Copernicus Value (2015): 78.96 | Impact Factor (2015): 6.391 Table 2: Monthly average data of Raingauge Stations in the Aegean Regions Station Name Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Now Dec Acıpayam 2.18 3.40 6.78 11.25 16.21 20.93 24.51 24.13 19.51 13.72 7.60 3.75 Afyon 0.32 1.65 5.16 10.27 14.83 18.89 21.98 21.70 17.56 12.06 6.64 2.33 Akhisar 6.16 7.28 9.85 14.56 19.79 24.58 27.12 26.80 22.50 16.93 11.32 7.79 Aydın 8.23 9.32 11.83 15.85 20.87 25.85 28.41 27.61 23.46 18.40 13.29 9.65 Bergama 6.69 7.58 9.88 14.26 19.58 24.42 26.86 26.42 22.46 17.29 12.12 8.55 Bodrum 11.40 11.60 13.25 16.54 20.89 25.65 28.24 28.10 24.56 20.23 16.14 12.95 Bolvadin 0.06 1.45 5.35 10.13 14.94 19.14 22.58 22.27 17.72 12.03 6.20 2.04 Bornova 8.08 8.67 10.94 15.11 20.30 25.38 27.93 27.22 22.91 17.99 12.97 9.85 Çeşme 9.36 9.82 11.75 15.19 19.56 23.88 25.82 25.57 22.49 18.32 14.11 11.07 Datça 12.20 12.29 13.93 16.73 20.93 25.29 27.73 27.91 25.10 21.00 16.88 13.81 D.
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