Read the Conference Report of the 159Th Bergedorf

159th bergedorf round table Berlin, 26 – 28 June 2015 cooperation along the new silk road Körber Foundation International Affairs August 2015 Cooperation along the new Silk Road Executive Summary • For the time being, China’s new Silk Road constitutes a broad conceptual framework for enhanced cooperation between the countries involved in the initiative, which still lacks precisely defined standards, regulations, and structures. Proponents point out that the new Silk Road will provide mutual benefits for everyone involved and that it provides for cooperation “on an equal footing.” In contrast, critics argue that the initiative is a means of enforcing economic and political interests. • The EU should more clearly define its (economic) policy objectives in the context of the new Silk Road. The EU needs to move from a “fast follower” to a “first mover” on cooperation with China if the new Silk Road is to reflect European interests. • In view of the fraught state of current European-Russian relations, the conflict in Ukraine could have a negative impact on cooperation in the framework of the new Silk Road. • Although increased connectivity along the new Silk Road facilitates freight transport, it also increases the mobility of terrorist groups and organized criminals. In order to counter these threats, states along the new Silk Road will have to intensify inter- governmental cooperation and better utilize existing multilateral forums. The new Silk Road: More than just a Narrative? A number of participants welcomed the Chi- A number of participants stressed that the nese initiative to deepen economic coopera- new Silk Road represented little more than tion along the new Silk Road. However, they a narrative, as it continued to lack precisely argued that the aim and substance of Presi- defined standards, regulations, and struc- dent Xi Jinping’s 2013 initiative remained elu- tures. They also cau- sive. As had been the case with the historical tioned against treat- “The new Silk Road is Silk Road, the new Silk Road comprised a net- ing the initiative as little more than a com- work of transport lanes and trade routes link- a parallel model to prehensive conceptual ing China and Europe economically, politi- - the Eurasian Econom framework that can be cally, and culturally. The 11,000 km-long new ic Union or other re- deployed as desired.” Silk Road consisted of a land route reaching gional integrational from China through Central Asia, and Russia projects. Instead, they to the EU. In addition, its maritime corridor viewed the new Silk Road as a comprehensive would link South and East Asia to the Middle conceptual framework that could be deployed East, Europe and Africa. as desired, and that provided enough space Conference Report 1 159 th bergedorf round table for existing institutions. Moreover, the new integration. The EU was said to favor “coop- Silk Road illustrated a gradual change in Chi- erative integration,” Russia, in contrast, was nese foreign policy as it represented China’s promoting “assertive cooperation”, whereas answer to demands that the country accept a China was primarily interested in “economic higher level of inter- penetration.” “The parties compris- national responsibility. ing the new Silk Road The Chinese partici- initiative are involved pants repeatedly high- ‘on an equal footing.’” lighted the initiative’s From Economic Integration flexibility and inclu- to Political Cooperation? siveness. Unlike the European Union, they argued, the new Silk Several participants stressed that Central Road was open to all interested states that Asia’s location meant that it was well placed pursued common interests in the areas of to act as a site of enhanced economic coop- infrastructure, trade, and investment. No one eration between China, Russia, and Europe would be excluded, and cooperation would due to the shared economic interests of these be based “on an equal footing.” They also countries. emphasized that there would be no formal Beijing was viewed as particularly interest- founding treaty. ed in the region’s natural resources. At the Nevertheless, some Western participants same time, the region acted as a market for were skeptical, and questioned whether Bei- Chinese exports, especially due to its loca- jing was pursuing a hidden agenda. They ex- tion “on China’s doorstep.” The region also pressed concern that China might use the offered promising investment opportunities, new Silk Road to strengthen its economic and and large-scale projects in Central Asia could political influence. At the same time, the partly absorb the overcapacity of China’s in- Western participants frastructure sector. In addition, the partici- underlined that func- pants argued that China was using the new “Is China pursuing a tioning economic co- Silk Road to develop poorer regions of West- ‘hidden agenda’ with operation not only re- ern China with the aim of furthering politi- the new Silk Road?” quired mutual trust, cal stabilization. Furthermore, China sought but also a minimum to counter rebalancing by the US towards the level of symmetry. Importantly, the states Asia-Pacific by orienting itself more strongly along the new Silk Road were viewed as dif- to the West. Finally, the participants main- fering substantially in terms of population tained that China’s attempts to connect East size, economic power and trade volume. The and West underscored its character as zhong Western participants also questioned wheth- guo (“the Middle Land”). er China – as an economic and political heav- Given Russia’s fraught (economic) relations yweight – would actually permit all of its with the EU, Russian participants viewed the partners to co-determine the rules governing new Silk Road as a welcome alternative. They cooperation. also underscored the Eurasian Economic One participant viewed China, Russia and Union (EEU) as a complementary institution the EU as proposing competing models of to the initiative and emphasized possibilities 2 Conference Report Cooperation along the new Silk Road for cooperation in infrastructure, transport, ments could lead Central Asia to establish it- energy, and investment. However, one par- self as a competitive alternative to the East ticipant pointed out that Russia, Belarus, and Asian boom regions. Some participants even Kazakhstan, as members of the EEU, were re- believed that cooperation on technical issues sponsible for about one third of global protec- might result in deeper cooperation on other tionist measures. This point was said to dem- issues and even lead to onstrate the challenges that Russia would the development of “So far, cooperation have to overcome if it were to move towards free trade areas. How- between the countries China in terms of economic openness. ever, this seemed un- along the new Silk Several participants called on the EU to likely in the near fu- Road has been re- more clearly define its (economic) policy ob- ture. stricted to technical jectives regarding the new Silk Road. They ar- The Shanghai Coop- questions.” gued that if the EU wanted to be viewed as eration Organization a more attractive and serious partner in the (SCO) was viewed as region, then it needed a Central Asia strate- the most useful existing format for current gy that went beyond soft policy issues. More- economic cooperation and integration in Cen- over, in terms of cooperation with China, the tral Asia. Nevertheless, its role was in need of EU would have to change its strategy and be- clarification to avoid competition with other come a “first mover” instead of a “fast fol- organizations, as this would be counterpro- lower” to ensure the initiative reflected its ductive. Some participants were concerned interests. that the founding of the New Development So far, cooperation between the countries Bank by the BRICS states, and the Asian In- along the new Silk Road was said to have frastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), would been restricted to technical questions, such result in increased competitive pressure – as harmonizing standards, developing more even though a number of Western states had flexible rules of origin, and improving coop- decided to participate in the AIIB against the eration on customs regulations and access to position of the United States. public procurement. In the long-term, however, new perspectives were developing and this was particularly the case for Central Asia. The construction of value chains of geopoliti- cal relevance was highlighted as an example. The participants stressed that these develop- Conference Report 3 159 th bergedorf round table The Conflict in Ukraine: parency regarding their respective goals and An Obstacle to Cooperation? interests in the Ukraine conflict. One participant maintained that although President What are the implications of the conflict in Putin had proven himself a competent tac- Ukraine for cooperation between Russia, Chi- tician, he could hardly be considered a fore- na, and European states in terms of the new sighted strategist, as his acts were barely cal- Silk Road? Some participants feared that in culable to outsiders. This was also reflected the long term the conflict would have a neg- in the current situation in eastern Ukraine ative effect on cooperation between these where President Putin was said to be treat- countries. Other participants pointed out that ing the separatists as useful instruments that Russia and Europe had maneuvered them- could be deployed at will. The support of the selves into a dead end during the course of Kremlin, however, was neither boundless nor the conflict in Ukraine and that it was time unconditional and Moscow was seen as hav- to begin a dialogue that went “beyond the cri- ing made no previous attempts to establish sis.” They pointed out that cooperation was coherence between the largely uncoordinat- needed on issues associated with low politics, ed separatist groups. as these could build confidence and hence pave the way to rapprochement between Rus- sia and Europe.

Load more