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Information Technology14may21 IT Services Q4FY21 Result Review May 15, 2021 Strong growth momentum in key sectors… Quick Pointers: PL Universe . Demand Environment remains strong, Strong deal wins across companies. Companies Rating CMP (Rs) TP (Rs) . Margin headwinds arriving from supply side constraints will be easily absorbed by 1) Strong revenue growth, 2) Better pricing for CX & digital deals, 3) Focus TCS BUY 3,052 3,636 on offshoring & 4) Pyramid optimization. Infosys BUY 1,316 1,632 Wipro BUY 498 500 . We like TCS, INFY, Wipro in large caps & Coforge, MTCL & LTTS in midcap HCL Tech BUY 910 1,010 space. Tech M BUY 952 1,132 L&T Infotech BUY 3,598 4,415 Tier-1 IT Services’ revenue growth in 4QFY21 was tad lower at 3.7% QoQ USD Mindtree BUY 2,104 2,567 as compared to previous two quarters. 3 out of 5 tier-1 IT companies reported Mphasis BUY 1,789 1,935 miss on revenue estimates. However, we still continue to be confident of COFORGE BUY 3,357 3,762 strong demand environment and miss is only due to moderation of revenue Persistent BUY 2,278 2,344 growth post 2 quarters of strong growth. Revenue growth was led by strong Zensar BUY 271 290 demand momentum in BFSI and sustained recovery in manufacturing & retail L&T Tech. BUY 2,540 3,006 sectors. Communications vertical was weak for all companies. Management Cyient BUY 775 825 commentary across board indicated record high deal pipeline and broad- Source: Company, PL based demand environment characterized by (1) cost take-out and transformation led outsourcing or lift-shift-transform deals and (2) digital and cloud adoption led deals. Consecutive quarters of record hiring(freshers) also indicate strong optimism in demand. Strong hiring trend will continue in FY22. IT companies may face supply side disruptions due to ongoing second COVID wave in India, but are managing these pressures through 1) cross- skilling under-utilized talent and 2) diversifying delivery to near shore and offshore centers outside India. We believe that that headwinds of supply side can be partially offset by levers such as 1) pyramid optimization, 2) increase in offshoring 3) controlling attrition and 4) leverage from revenue growth. Given strong demand for talent to serve all-time high order book and scarcity of digitally skilled talent, we need to watch out for supply side pressures. We continue to remain positive on the Indian IT Sector as we believe sector will continue to trade at higher multiples well supported by 1) improving visibility (strong deal wins, faster ramp up), 2) sustained margins 3) improving FCF and 4) improving demand environment across verticals. TCS, Infosys are our top picks. We believe that TCS has the ability to gain market share while managing supply side pressures. We are also impressed by turnaround in Wipro. In midcap our pecking order is MTCL, Coforge, LTI, Mphasis & LTTS-Cyient in ER&D space. Aniket Pande [email protected] | 91-22-66322300 Aditi Patil [email protected] | May 15, 2021 1 IT Services TCS led the Tier 1 pack with highest . Largely in-line revenues for Tier 1; beat in revenues for Tier 2: Revenue growth of 5% QoQ USD in 4Q led by growth for Tier 1 companies was largely in-line (TCS) or slight miss (Infy, market share gains and ramp up of Postbank and Prudential deals. HCLT, TechM) in our estimates. Wipro was an exception with positive surprise in revenue growth of +3.9% QoQ USD (Ple: +3.5%). For Infy, sequential volume growth of 4.6% was highest in the past decade for this quarter, but it was largely offshore led. In HCLT, growth was modest (+3% QoQ USD) due to softness in ER&D and seasonal drag in Products & Platforms. Among Tier 2 peers, Coforge/Mindtree/Cyient reported strong revenue growth of +7%/5.1%/6% QoQ USD. LTI also reported strong revenue growth of 4.6% QoQ USD led by faster ramp up of large $204 mn Injazat deal. TCS among Tier 1 and Coforge / Cyient / Mindtree among Tier 2 led sequential growth QoQ Growth (USD) Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Infosys 2.3% 2.5% 1.0% -1.4% -2.4% 6.1% 6.2% 2.8% TCS 1.6% 0.6% 1.3% -2.5% -7.1% 7.2% 5.1% 5.0% Wipro -1.8% 0.5% 2.2% -1.0% -7.3% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% HCL Tech 3.8% 5.2% 2.3% 0.0% -7.4% 6.4% 4.4% 3.0% Tech M -1.6% 3.2% 5.1% -4.3% -6.8% 4.8% 3.4% 1.6% Total (Top-5) 1.3% 2.0% 1.9% -1.8% -6.1% 6.1% 4.9% 3.7% LTI 0.8% 2.0% 8.4% 3.9% -4.8% 3.6% 5.8% 4.6% Mindtree 0.8% 2.6% 1.5% 1.2% -9.1% 3.2% 4.9% 5.1% Mphasis 1.8% 2.6% 4.3% 0.6% -4.5% 7.2% 2.0% 2.5% LTTS 1.4% 2.1% 0.7% -2.0% -12.5% 4.1% 6.8% 3.9% Coforge 0.4% 7.3% 1.7% 2.3% -9.4% 10.5% 3.8% 7.0% Persistent 1.1% 4.9% 3.1% -1.8% 3.1% 3.9% 7.4% 4.6% Cyient -5.2% 4.9% -5.5% -3.9% -12.5% 3.4% 4.7% 6.0% Source: Company, PL Infosys among Tier 1 and Persistent / Coforge among Tier 2 led YoY USD revenue growth YoY Growth (USD) Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Infosys 10.6% 9.9% 8.6% 4.5% -0.32% 3.18% 8.42% 13.01% TCS 8.6% 5.8% 6.4% 0.9% -7.77% -1.69% 2.08% 10.01% Wipro 2.5% 2.0% 2.4% -0.1% -5.73% -2.76% -1.14% 3.80% HCL Tech 15.0% 18.4% 15.6% 11.6% -0.34% 0.84% 2.89% 6.01% Tech M 1.9% 5.7% 7.3% 2.1% -3.22% -1.69% -3.27% 2.70% Total (Top-5) 8.5% 8.1% 7.8% 3.4% -4.21% -0.33% 2.66% 8.44% LTI 11.4% 10.7% 13.7% 15.9% 9.5% 11.2% 8.5% 9.1% Mindtree 9.4% 10.0% 9.4% 6.3% -4.2% -3.6% -0.4% 3.5% Mphasis 10.5% 10.6% 12.4% 9.7% 2.9% 7.4% 5.1% 7.0% LTTS 14.8% 11.7% 7.3% 2.1% -11.8% -10.1% -4.6% 1.1% Coforge 10.9% 12.5% 12.2% 12.2% 1.2% 4.2% 6.3% 11.2% Persistent -3.2% 6.2% 7.1% 7.4% 9.5% 8.4% 12.9% 20.3% Cyient -2.6% -2.8% -6.0% -9.7% -16.6% -17.8% -8.9% 0.5% Source: Company, PL May 15, 2021 2 IT Services Sequential CC revenue growth led by TCS (among Tier 1) & Coforge (among Tier 2) QoQ constant currency revenue growth (%) Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 TCS 2.8% 3.3% 1.0% -1.2% -6.3% 4.8% 4.1% 4.2% Infosys 2.2% 1.5% 0.3% -0.8% -2.0% 4.0% 5.3% 2.0% Wipro -0.7% 1.1% 1.8% 0.4% -7.5% 2.0% 3.4% 3.0% HCL Tech 4.2% 6.0% 2.1% 0.8% -7.2% 4.5% 4.4% 2.5% Tech Mahindra -1.0% 4.1% 4.1% -3.3% -6.3% 2.9% 2.8% 0.7% LTI 1.0% 2.4% 8.3% 4.7% -4.7% 2.3% 5.3% 4.4% Mphasis 2.0% 3.1% 4.0% 1.5% -4.6% 6.0% 1.6% 2.0% Coforge 4.0% 4.1% 2.0% 3.0% -6.8% 8.1% 3.3% 5.1% LTTS 1.3% 2.5% 0.6% -1.0% -12.7% 2.9% 6.6% 3.8% Source: Company, PL Strong YoY CC revenue performance led by Infosys & LTI YoY constant currency revenue growth (%) Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 TCS 12.5% 10.6% 8.4% 6.8% 6.8% 3.0% -3.2% 0.4% 5.9% Infosys 12.2% 12.4% 11.4% 9.5% 6.4% 1.5% 2.2% 6.6% 9.6% Wipro 6.4% 5.6% 3.8% 3.2% 2.6% -4.40% -3.4% -2.0% 0.5% HCL Tech 15.4% 17.1% 20.5% 16.4% 13.5% 1.0% -0.4% 1.1% 2.6% LTI 17.5% 12.9% 11.9% 14.2% 17.4% 10.6% 10.5% 7.4% 7.1% Mphasis 12.6% 11.5% 11.6% 12.6% 11.1% 3.8% 6.7% 4.3% 4.9% LTTS 20.0% 15.2% 11.9% 7.5% 3.4% -10.9% -10.6% -5.2% -0.6% Source: Company, PL BFS was one of the verticals resilient Growth was broad-based led by BFSI and Manufacturing: For Tier 1 IT to Covid impact. Accelerated . adoption of digital technologies to companies, BFSI showed sustained strong demand momentum across the cater to increased online transactions pack with growth of +5.3% QoQ USD. Infosys management mentioned and healthy core modernization large demand continues to be strong in areas such as customer experience, front to deals have contributed to strong growth recovery.
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