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Company Research TRUE CORPORATION Company Research March 3, 2020 TRUE CORPORATION BUY (TRUE TB/ TRUE.BK) Target price Bt4.90 (+49.4%) Price Bt3.28 Sharp correction is unjustified The sharp correction in the share price over the past six months suggest the negatives have been priced-in, including the core loss in 4Q19. We also expect TRUE to book losses this year, but the magnitude would be shallower than in 2019, underpinned by rising revenue. This could be a share price Phatipak NAVAWATANA catalyst. We continue to recommend a BUY rating with a TP of Bt4.9. Fundamental investment analyst on securities +662 659 7000 ext 5003 Minimal guidance for 2020 [email protected] At the analyst briefing yesterday, TRUE presented a recap of 4Q19 performance and earnings prospects for FY20 following its winning bids for 5G spectra in mid- February. We left the meeting with a neutral view as the message is in line with our view. The key takeaways were as follows: (1) TRUE gave a rough guidance Key data Unit for revenue, earnings and capex trend in 2020. Following successful marketing 12M high/ low (Bt) 6.8/ 3.2 strategies for both mobile and FBB implemented in 4Q19, the firm expects Market cap (Btm/ USDm) 109,448/ 3,484 services revenue to grow faster this year than +3.9% in 2019. TRUE also expects 3M avg. daily turnover (Btm/ USDm) 389.2/ 12.7 costs to rise at a slower pace than revenue because cost control remains a Free float (%) 67.0 Issued shares (m shares) 33,368 priority. Capex had peaked in 2018, and 2020 capex would be the same as 2019 Major shareholders: % despite the rollout in 5G. (2) TRUE expects 5G adoption in Thailand to take off in 1) Charoen Pokphand Gro 18.2 late 2021 when 5G-enabled handsets are more affordable. (3) TRUE assured 2) China Mobile Interna 18.0 3) Ubs Ag/Hong Kong 9.0 there is little risk of a cash call as there is little capex pressure and payment terms for 5G licenses are favorable currently. Stock price performance (Bt) TRUE (pt) Our FY20F earnings more conservative than market estimate 7.0 SET (RHS) 1,850 1,800 We expect TRUE to book a smaller Bt83m core loss this year, compared with 6.0 Bt384m core loss in 2019. Consensus estimate indicate the market expects 1,750 5.0 Bt1.65b profit. The discrepancy could be in the costs, especially marketing 1,700 expenses which TRUE did little to control over the past two years. The 5G 4.0 1,650 1,600 advantage appears slim because adoption will be slow this year. 3.0 1,550 Maintain BUY rating, TP Bt4.9 2.0 1,500 The sharp correction in the share price over the past six months suggests the poor Mar-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 4Q/FY19 results have been priced-in. The anticipated smaller loss this year could Unit ytd 1M 3M 12M Total return (%) (28.7) (12.8) (24.4) (30.7) be a near-term share price catalyst. Total return vs SET (%) (13.4) (1.3) (9.8) (12.1) Financial Summary Krungsri vs Bloomberg consensus Year to 31 Dec Unit 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Unit (+) (=) (-) Revenue (Btm) 135,490 136,972 138,074 141,429 143,207 Bloomberg (Cnt.) 9 8 8 consensus Revenue growth (%) 8.6 1.1 0.8 2.4 1.3 Unit KSS BB %diff EBITDA (Btm) 30,807 33,589 31,447 27,114 28,932 Target price (Bt) 4.9 4.3 13.0 EBITDA growth (%) 22.9 9.0 (6.4) (13.8) 6.7 2020F net profit (Btm) (83) 1,751 (104.8) Profit, core (Btm) (3,496) (4,365) (384) (83) 1,666 2021F net profit (Btm) 1,666 2,168 (23.2) Profit growth, core (%) nm 25 nm (78) (2,102) Profit, reported (Btm) 2,323 7,035 5,636 (83) 1,666 Profit growth, reported (%) nm 202.9 (19.9) (101.5) (2,102.5) Earnings revision EPS, core (Bt) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 Bloomberg Unit 2020F 2021F EPS growth, core (%) nm nm nm (78.3) (2,102.5) 1M (%) (37.22) (23.37) DPS (Bt) 0.03 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.02 3M (%) (39.77) (29.77) P/E, core (x) nm nm (285.0) (1,315.8) 65.7 ytd (%) (39.77) (29.77) P/BV, core (x) 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 Krungsri ROE (%) (2.7) (3.3) 0.2 (0.1) 1.2 From last report (%) 0.00 0.00 Dividend yield (%) 0.9 3.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities FCF yield (%) 1.4 3.7 0.6 0.5 1.3 Disclaimer: This publication constitutes information disclosed to the public and believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All opinions, suggestions, or projections are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as an inducement for the sale or purchase of securities. Amendments to this publication may be made without prior notice. Investors are urged to exercise caution in making a decision to 1 invest in any securities. Company Update | TRUE March 3, 2020 P/E Band EV/EBITDA Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities Peer table Market PE EPS EV/EBITDA Div Yld ROE Share Price Cap (x) (%growth) (x) (%) (%) Performance BB Ticker Name US$ 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 20F 1M 3M 6M YTD Thailand TRUE TB TRUE CORP PCL 3,483 NA 65.7 NA NA 7.2 6.6 0.0 (0.1) (12.8) (24.4) (48.8) (28.7) ADVANC TB ADVANCED INFO SERVICE P 18,688 17.8 17.2 NA 3.3 8.0 7.6 4.2 45.4 (3.2) (4.6) (13.4) (7.3) DTAC TB TOTAL ACCESS 2,713 14.2 16.0 251.3 (11.4) 5.4 5.2 4.7 23.2 (19.1) (30.4) (42.6) (32.4) INTUCH TB INTOUCH HOLDINGS PCL 5,485 13.5 13.0 15.1 3.5 12.4 12.4 5.8 34.1 (3.6) (5.3) (16.0) (6.1) THCOM TB THAICOM PCL 102 NA NA (94.6) (12.7) 1.0 1.1 1.1 (1.0) (22.8) (25.5) (40.9) (24.4) Average (simple) 15.1 28.0 57.2 (4.3) 6.8 6.6 3.2 20.3 Regional VOC AU VOCUS GROUP LTD 1,358 19.6 18.3 210.8 7.6 8.9 8.4 0.0 4.4 (1.5) 6.4 4.4 16.8 728 HK CHINA TELECOM CORP LTD-H 30,796 10.2 10.0 0.0 2.3 2.7 2.6 4.2 6.1 (2.6) 0.3 (16.1) (7.8) 941 HK CHINA MOBILE LTD 161,353 10.6 10.5 (10.2) 1.3 2.7 2.6 5.2 9.9 (4.5) 3.3 (5.5) (6.4) 215 HK HUTCHISON TELECOMM 886 20.4 24.7 (21.3) (17.1) NA NA 3.7 2.8 0.7 (7.1) 9.2 (8.9) 762 HK CHINA UNICOM HONG KONG 24,584 14.0 11.6 20.9 21.1 1.8 1.7 2.8 3.8 (4.4) (6.7) (20.4) (14.9) ISAT IJ INDOSAT TBK PT 797 NA NA (191.7) (26.1) 3.6 3.3 0.0 (13.1) (8.7) (30.6) (43.8) (28.2) TLKM IJ TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA 23,924 16.5 14.7 14.6 11.8 6.0 5.5 4.7 19.7 (9.5) (12.9) (22.0) (13.4) TBIG IJ TOWER BERSAMA 1,686 27.0 24.2 25.5 11.7 11.6 10.7 2.7 24.6 (8.6) (7.8) (12.0) (13.8) BHARTI IN BHARTI AIRTEL LTD 39,109 NA NA (1,979.5) (139.5) 11.7 9.3 0.3 (13.3) 4.4 13.1 49.6 13.8 BHIN IN BHARTI INFRATEL LTD 5,568 12.7 12.6 27.6 0.1 5.4 5.1 6.6 22.3 (11.8) (17.9) (13.0) (13.7) IDEA IB VODAFONE IDEA LTD 1,389 NA NA (49.0) (58.6) 9.2 6.4 0.0 (107.1) (33.7) (55.1) (34.8) (43.2) RCOM IB RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS 27 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA (4.1) (16.5) (18.4) (18.4) AXIATA MK AXIATA GROUP BERHAD 8,852 29.2 25.9 (13.1) 12.9 6.1 5.9 2.7 7.0 (5.6) (4.0) (19.6) (1.9) DIGI MK DIGI.COM BHD 7,510 21.8 21.4 0.9 2.2 11.3 11.1 4.6 218.4 (4.0) (12.3) (19.1) (9.0) T MK TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD 3,288 16.0 16.3 36.3 (1.7) 4.8 4.8 3.2 10.7 (4.9) (3.2) (2.1) (3.9) GLO PM GLOBE TELECOM INC 4,726 10.2 10.9 8.8 (7.2) 4.6 4.5 5.9 27.5 (4.8) (9.1) (10.4) (10.9) TEL PM PLDT INC 4,184 8.7 8.7 30.1 (0.3) 5.0 4.8 7.1 19.8 (1.4) (7.7) (15.6) (0.6) M1 SP M1 LTD NA NA NA (16.2) (13.4) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ST SP SINGAPORE 35,022 18.2 15.6 (13.5) 16.5 13.3 13.4 6.0 7.3 (9.7) (13.9) (5.1) (11.6) STH SP STARHUB LTD 1,880 16.6 17.2 (11.7) (3.3) 7.0 7.1 5.6 36.5 4.9 7.1 15.3 6.3 030200 KS KT CORP 5,163 8.7 7.6 14.5 13.7 2.4 2.3 4.8 5.1 (7.1) (12.3) (13.3) (12.8) 032640 KS LG UPLUS CORP 4,711 11.3 9.5 13.2 18.7 2.9 2.8 3.2 6.8 (3.0) (5.5) (2.7) (9.5) 017670 KS SK TELECOM 14,101 11.5 8.0 63.7 44.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 6.3 (9.4) (14.0) (13.0) (12.6) 2412 TT CHUNGHWA TELECOM CO LTD 27,839 26.7 27.5 (4.5) (2.8) 11.0 11.0 3.7 8.4 0.0 (4.4) (1.8) (1.8) 4904 TT FAR EASTONE TELECOMM CO 7,038 25.3 28.2 (4.0) (10.5) 9.0 8.9 5.1 12.0 (5.2) (11.4) (11.2) (9.8) Average (simple) 16.5 18.5 (57.8) (4.7) 6.7 6.3 3.6 15.5 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Krungsri securities Krungsri Securities Research 2 Company Update | TRUE March 3, 2020 Financial statement Profit and Loss Statement FY December 31 Unit 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Total revenue (Btm) 109,216 118,781 124,719 135,490 136,972 138,074 141,429 143,207 Cost of goods sold (Btm) 76,918 86,176 95,599 101,866 101,693 (105,785) 107,447 113,566 Gross profit (Btm) 23,040 28,204 29,120 33,624 35,280 32,289 29,312 31,486 SG&A (Btm) 23,103 23,596 29,611 32,985 35,283 (27,054) 28,286 28,641 Other income (Btm) 148 142 442 533 313 320 313 313 Interest expense (Btm) 4,988 2,897 4,672 5,917 5,012 (7,491) 5,115 5,250 Pre-tax profit (Btm) (5,747) 1,853 (1,908) (8,744) (4,953) (1,936) (4,026) (2,343) Corporate tax (Btm) 0 251 490 1,316 (935) 54 0 0 Equity a/c profits (Btm) 1,000 1,414 (7) 3,154 3,790 2,880 3,943 4,022 Minority interests (Btm) 89 (11) 7 (13) (13) 14 (14) (14) Core profit (Btm) (2,706) 65 (2,138) (3,496) (4,365) (384) (83) 1,666 Extra-ordinary items (Btm) 4,000 1,722 (676) 5,819 11,401 6,020 0 0 Net Profit (Btm) 1,294 4,412 (2,814) 2,323 7,035 5,636 (83) 1,666 EBITDA (Btm) 17,219 22,110 25,071 30,807 33,589 31,447 27,114 28,932 Core EPS (Bt) (0.11) 0.00 (0.06) (0.10) (0.13) (0.01) (0.00) 0.05 Net EPS (Bt) 0.05 0.18 (0.11) 0.09 0.29 0.17 (0.00) 0.07 DPS (Bt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.02 Balance Sheet FY December 31 Unit 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Total current assets (Btm) 84,301 77,807 122,678 117,812 124,692 137,170 138,952 140,335 Total long-term assets (Btm) 156,340 206,654 327,184 348,152 371,470 406,050 445,165 486,977 Total assets (Btm) 240,079 283,525 448,960 465,311 495,569 543,220 584,117 627,312 Total current liabilities (Btm) 110,305 112,226 160,844 197,803 204,260 118,716 118,716 118,716 Total long-term liabilities (Btm) 33,137 55,522 156,389 56,722 68,054 129,051
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