VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

PRELIMINERARY FACT FINDING MISSION:

THE UNITED NATIONS COUNTRY TEAM OF

PREPARED BY HUMANITARIAN FUTURES PROGRAMME KING’S COLLEGE LONDON DRAFT REPORT FOR CIRCULATION– SEPTEMBER 2009

VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

Executive Summary

Overview Preliminary Findings and Recommenda‐ tions The complexities, interrelationships, and dimensions of hu‐ manitarian threats over the next two decades will require an The HFP’s work with the UNCT in Venezuela was guided by a approach for anticipating and responding to crises that is sig‐ similar premise to other UNCTs assessed by the HFP. This nificantly different from that of the present. The greater the premise is based on the belief that a UN country system of agility and the more attention given to systematically thinking the future will need to have the capacity to understand and to along the lines of “what if” and to innovation and to collabo‐ address issues that relate to a confluence of shocks and is‐ ration, the more readily will organizations be able to antici‐ sues, short and long‐term. Additionally, in contexts that are as pate and adapt to what may occur. uncertain and politically challenging as Venezuela, the UN will The overarching objective of the Humanitarian Futures Pro‐ need to be able to adjust its approach to programming and gramme (HFP) is to assist organizations to prepare for an in‐ adapt its frameworks for change accordingly, in order for it to creasingly complex humanitarian future. Towards this end, remain relevant and to demonstrate added‐value. the HFP works with a wide range of governmental, inter‐ Due to the rapidly changing and complex nature of the na‐ governmental and non‐governmental organizations to en‐ tional context and the preliminary nature and short time hance their capacities to anticipate and address the main driv‐ frame of the mission, the HFP team is cautious about drawing ers of vulnerability, on the one hand, and opportunities to any definitive conclusions or making a set of “prescriptive” offset such vulnerabilities, on the other. recommendations on the way forward. The HFP Mission was undertaken at the request of the UN That said, overall, the HFP team believes that the UN country Resident Coordinator with the aim of identifying opportuni‐ team in Venezuela is well positioned to serve as a pioneer and ties for how the UN Country Team (UNCT) can strengthen its a role model within the region and the broader UN system own capacity and that of Venezuela to anticipate and respond for: to future humanitarian threats and crisis drivers. The mission was conducted by a two person HFP team (Joanne Burke, • How the UN can effectively support governments with Philipp Shonrock) during the period of 27 July through 10 Au‐ high capacity to address both short‐term shocks and gust 2009, visiting and the State of Merida. The mis‐ long‐term threats in a systematic, coherent and for‐ sion included a series of group meetings, individual key infor‐ ward looking manner, mant interviews and the completion of the HFP question‐ naire: Organizational Self‐Assessment Tools (OSAT). • How the strengthening of futures capacities can en‐ hance the UN’s own added‐value in middle‐income A total of 41 people were interviewed during the mission of countries with complex humanitarian contexts, whom 22 were UN staff. Additionally, two focus groups were conducted. External participants included representatives • How to develop creative working models and relation‐ from the Government, donors, academia and the scientific ships within a very complex and polarized political en‐ and technical community. Given that the private sector and vironment. non‐governmental organizations do not have active humani‐ This report consists of eight preliminary findings and ten sce‐ tarian roles in Venezuela, they were not targeted to partici‐ narios for strengthening futures capacities. They are formu‐ pate in the discussions. lated around the following four HFP capacities:

• Long‐term strategic thinking and planning

• Systematic information gathering and synthesis • Adaptation and innovation • Collaboration, networks and partnerships

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Capacities for Long‐term Strategic Thinking and “futures test” the UNDAF against one or more long‐term crisis Planning drivers. The exercise would serve as a type of audit to help identify which UNDAF objectives and which UN programmes Preliminary Finding 1: In 2008, the United Nations Develop‐ can incorporate a futures perspective. ment Assistance Framework (UNDAF) was signed by the Gov‐ Scenario 2: Undertake a futures capacity audit of one UN ernment for the period 2009‐2013. Venezuela has not re‐ programme ported on its progress and achievements of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in the last four years, nor has it A scenarios planning exercise could be organized with one or been forthcoming in providing any matching funds for the more UN organizations or with the UNETE. The purpose of UNDAF’s implementation. There is a concern that the neces‐ the exercise would be to test a specific crisis driver for one of sary ownership for the UNDAF’s implementation is lacking on the five UNDAF objectives. Such an exercise would need to be the part of the Government. The general nature of the UN‐ undertaken in collaboration with key external partners, per‐ DAF per se does not provide for a clearly articulated vision for haps organized at the State or municipal level. change that can be measured against systematically tested crisis drivers. Nor is there a common set of principles for the Scenario 3: Futures capacities training for the UNCT UNDAF’s implementation; one that guides the work of all the UN organizations against which targets, outcomes and impact The UN could develop a training module to build capacities on could be measured and resources allocated. The UN needs to future humanitarian threats. The training could be designed have a clear message (or set of messages) that “brand” the around core competencies for long‐term strategic thinking, UN’s role and work in Venezuela. information gathering and analysis, strategy and operational alignment, and innovation and collaboration. The UN would Preliminary Finding 2: The top six crisis drivers identified in then have a package of tools that it could adapt and use in the the OSAT Questionnaire included: increasing numbers of ur‐ context of its own work. ban poor, climate induced disasters, water access, collapse of state structures, declining food availability, and resource scar‐ Scenario 4: Redesign the UN Venezuela’s webpage city driven by conflict. The potential for interstate conflict The website can help to “brand” the UN’s work in Venezuela. was also cited. Given that up to 80% of Venezuela’s popula‐ It could be more user‐friendly in terms of language and navi‐ tion resides in urban contexts and that up to 75% of its food is gation. The information could be better tailored to an exter‐ imported, crisis risks associated with these drivers, along with nal audience that needs to understand what the UN system climate change, need to be very well mainstreamed into the does in Venezuela and whom it partners with. The webpage UNDFAF’s implementation. could include a futures section that speaks directly to the Preliminary Finding 3: Current programming and funding UN’s work and partnership with the Government to address cycles do not allow for systematically thinking about and plan‐ long‐term threats and crisis. ning for the future. There is a high degree of speculation Capacities for Systematic Information Gathering about “what might happen” in the future. However, planning processes do not include regular monitoring of future crisis and Analysis drivers as the basis for forecasting or for developing plans to Preliminary Finding 4: The current context in Venezuela is specifically mitigate impact. Responding to the immediate is, not considered to be conducive to systematic and transparent no doubt, important. But, working in a complex environment information gathering, exchange and dissemination. The gen‐ also means that the UN’s work needs to be guided by plan‐ eral feeling was that the UN’s own internal capacity for crisis ning models and frameworks for change that are sensitive to trend monitoring, analysis and forecasting is weak. Having context and highly attuned to what the future may bring. good evidence of risk and threats is essential in order to an‐ Scenario 1: Undertake a futures capacity audit of the UNCT’s ticipate and plan for long‐term crisis drivers that could have Programme negative humanitarian consequences. The UN’s work with the National Institute of Statistics serves as a good example A scenario planning exercise could be a first step to both of the UN’s added‐value in the area of information and strengthen the UN’s capacity to understand and to anticipate knowledge management and as a good model for internal UN long‐term threats in a systematic way. The exercise would

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collaboration. also serve to capitalize on the UN’s convening role and its role in promoting dialogue between scientists, policy makers and Preliminary Finding 5: There is a lack of systematization of programmers. Having a Futures Group could also serve to humanitarian experience, including the experience of the UN. bring in resources that few UN organizations would have the If another event were to occur in Venezuela, some of the capacity to develop internally. same internal UN coordination problems that occurred in Var‐ gas in 1999 would be likely to resurface. Currently, Venezuela Capacities for Adaptation, Innovation and does not count with any central information platform whose Collaboration function is to collect, systematize and make accessible the rich array of research, good practice and information re‐ Preliminary Finding 6: Working successfully in an uncertain sources that are available in the country on humanitarian, risk and complex landscape requires flexibility and agility and the and crisis threats. Nor is research on future crisis drivers un‐ ability to programme to this changing context. Many UN or‐ dertaken. Venezuela has a high capacity to respond after a ganizations have good capacity to work adaptively and inno‐ hazardous event. The UN needs to rethink its disaster role to vatively. However, in terms of how these capacities apply to be more oriented to prevention and risk reduction. the UN’s humanitarian work, the findings are less clear. Scenario 5: Establish a platform for humanitarian informa‐ Preliminary Finding 7: The UN organizations have invested in tion and for research on long‐term crisis drivers. working more inclusively and collaboratively and the Resident Through the UNETE the UN could establish an information Coordinator’s efforts in furtherance of this were acknowl‐ portal that serves as a central repository where information edged. That said, the different organizations work more inde‐ on crisis and humanitarian risks can be organized, stored. ac‐ pendently relating mainly with their own counterparts. The cessed and disseminated. The web platform could also serve UNETE is the main inter‐agency mechanism with potential for as a widely accessible portal to promote exchange and net‐ strengthening the UN’s collaboration for its humanitarian working on future crisis drivers. It could be structured in a work and futures capacity. Now, the UNETE lacks resources way that taps into information services within the broader UN and has limited external outreach or visibility. system and makes that available. Preliminary Finding 8: There are few opportunities for di‐ Scenario 6: Establish a futures early warning system verse actors to engage in dialogue and to debate humanitar‐ ian and crisis risk issues. The UN is well regarded for having a A “Futures Early Warning system” would strengthen the UN’s neutral, convening role. External actors want the UN do more internal capacity to anticipate long term future threats and of this type of work. External stakeholders also want the UN opportunities. The purpose of the system would be to iden‐ to help with making information available, providing tools for tify and analyze factors in the future that may impact on the crisis management, particularly for early warning and for use UN’s work and the communities it serves in a positive and at the community level. Information produced by the UN negative way. The system would use horizon scanning and would be considered to have a high degree of analytical inde‐ trend monitoring, linking with sectors outside the traditional pendence. humanitarian and development contacts, including the mili‐ tary, sciences, the technological and corporate sectors. Scenario 8: Create a capacity development initiative for ur‐ ban crisis issues Scenario 7: Establish a Futures Group Through the UNDAF the UNCT can create a pilot capacity de‐ The UN could establish a Futures Group comprised of natural velopment initiative to support the Government to have a and social scientists, principally from academic and research more coherent approach for addressing urban crisis, disaster centers and organizations. These individuals could inform the risk and human vulnerability issues and through a futures UN’s work to monitor and integrate future crisis trends and lens. The results of the pilot could be applied to other high drivers into its ongoing work, and to identify emerging tech‐ risk urban contexts and help inform the UN’s humanitarian nologies or new innovations to support strategic program‐ role in middle‐income and urban contexts. ming. Collaborating in this way with external actors would

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Scenario 9: Make south‐south and triangular cooperation a cross‐cutting element for the UN’s humanitarian and futures crisis drivers work.

South‐south cooperation is already a successfully tried and tested strategy of the UN and is an approach to which the Government, for the most part, is receptive. Venezuela could benefit from having stronger links with expertise in the region for addressing risk and crises threats in a futures sensitive way. Additionally, Venezuela is an emerging donor country for humanitarian assistance and has expertise and experience that would be of benefit to other countries inside and outside the region. The UN needs to make south‐south and triangular cooperation as a core and cross‐cutting element of the UN’s future humanitarian work.

Scenario 10: Undertake an inter‐agency, futures crisis drivers project

The UN could undertake an inter‐agency project to see how such joint activities can be developed. A project could be de‐ signed in the context of the work for UNDAF objective five that already calls for an inter‐agency approach. Some exam‐ ples could be to develop a joint futures oriented project with the National Institute of Statistics, the UN’s work with the Ministry of Gender, UNHCR and OIM’s border work with dis‐ placed persons. UNDP’s disaster risk reduction work in Me‐ rida or its work in the Sustainable Local Human Development Project could also have promising potential for an inter‐ agency initiative.

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Acknowledgements

The Humanitarian Futures Programme team would like to thank the United Nations Resident Coordinator, Mr. David McLachlan‐Karr and his colleagues for the assistance and gen‐ erous support that they provided. We wish to give special thanks to the representatives of the UN organizations who contributed meaningfully to our visit and to this report. In particular we wish to convey our gratitude to Carlos Sanchez, Ricardo Petit, Luisana Montoya, Eduardo Caldera Petit and all the other staff at UNDP for making us feel so welcome and for all help during our mission. Also, thanks to Delia Martinez of UNICEF for organizing the focus group meeting with the Min‐ istry of Education.

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Table of Contents

Foreword...... ?

Executive Summary ...... ?

Acknowledgements ...... ?

Table of Contents ...... ?

Section I: Introduction ...... ?

Section II: Overview of the Context ...... ?

Section III: Preliminary Findings...... ?

Section IV: Scenarios for Strengthening Futures Crisis Capacity...... ?

Conclusion ...... ?

Annexes

A – Terms of Reference for HFP mission to Venezuela ...... ?

B – List of Interviewees ...... ?

C – Newspaper Article: HFP visit to the State of Merida ...... ?

D – Scenarios planning information ...... ?

E – Futures Group Information...... ?

F – Glossary of Terms ...... ?

Images ...... ?

End Notes ...... ?

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Section I: Introduction This report summarizes the findings of a preliminary fact find‐ secondary levels. ing mission by the Humanitarian Futures Programme (HFP) of • Crisis risk management and humanitarian assistance. King’s College, London to Venezuela, 27 July ‐7 August, 2009. The mission was undertaken by a team of two at the request The UN country team in Venezuela includes the Office of the of the UN Resident Coordinator. Venezuela is the sixth mis‐ Resident Coordinator, UNDP, UNFPA, UNICEF, PAHO/WHO, sion that the HFP has undertaken with the United Nations FAO, OIM, UNHCR, UNIFEM, UNAIDS, UNDSS, UNU‐BIOLAC country teams: Central Africa Republic (2007), the Philippines and UNESCO. The HFP team met with representatives of all (2007), Ecuador (2007), Tajikistan (2008) and the Comoros the UN organizations, with the exception of UNAIDS, UNU and (2009). UNESCO.

The purpose of the Venezuela mission was to identify oppor‐ The UN system itself is in a period of transition with the immi‐ tunities for how the UN Country Team can strengthen its own nent departure of the Resident Coordinator, the foreseen capacity and that of Venezuela to anticipate and respond to departures of the Resident Representatives for FAO and for future humanitarian threats and crisis drivers. In keeping UNHCR later this year, and the pending approval by the Gov‐ with the request of the Resident Coordinator the brief for the ernment of the credentials for the new Resident Coordinator. mission was broad, looking at issues of existing and potential UNDP is also facing an imminent workforce reduction which human vulnerability. These issues were analyzed from a fu‐ could have negative implications for its capacity in the event tures perspective, in the context of the UNDAF and the UN’s of a crisis event. development, human rights and humanitarian assistance During the two‐week mission, 27 July ‐7 August, the following work. To a lesser extent these same issues were assessed with activities were undertaken: selected Government’s counterparts. Up to 80% of the popu‐ lation of Venezuela is estimated to live in urban areas. During • Two briefing meetings and a key informant interview the mission this emerged as an important lens for the analysis with the UN Resident Coordinator of future crisis risks and human vulnerability. • Key informant and group interviews with 22 UN per‐ The timing for the HFP mission coincides with the implemen‐ sonnel, 19 representatives of government, academic tation of the UNDAF which was signed with the Ministry of and scientific community, donors and partners Popular Power for Development and Planning, for the period • Two focus group meetings, Ministry of Education in of 2009‐2013. The singing of the UNDAF was the successful Caracas and in the State of Merida. result of more than two years of negotiation. The UNDAF • Completion of a Spanish “lite”version of the HFP Or‐ identifies five broad areas for cooperation that correspond ganizational Assessment Questionnaire (OSAT) with a directly to national development priorities and to the Govern‐ total of 15 returned (13 UN staff, 2 external partners) ment of Venezuela’s own National Development Plan for the period of 2007‐2013. These five priorities include: • Meeting with the UN Disaster Management thematic group (UNETE) • Promotion and protection of human rights, with an • Two day field mission to the state of Merida to meet emphasis on vulnerable and marginalized populations. with personnel of UNDP’s project on Urban Risk Man‐ • Reduction of maternal and child mortality, the preven‐ agement Planning for the Municipality of Antonio Pinto tion of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted dis‐ Salinas eases, with an emphasis on sexual and reproductive This report includes four sections. Following this introduction, rights. Section II provides some general observations on the crisis • Poverty reduction, social injustice and strengthening of context in Venezuela and the UN’s role. the national information system and local community participation. Section III summarizes the preliminary findings from the dis‐ cussions and the completion of the OSAT “lite”. • Capacity development with a focus on school educa‐ tion and elimination of gender barriers for primary and Section IV makes a set of recommendations in the form of

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future scenarios, short and long‐term. The scenarios speak to what the UN system itself can do to enhance its own thinking and practice to more effectively integrate long‐term humani‐ tarian threats into its organizational processes. A second set of scenarios offers ideas on actions that can be taken through the UNDAF to strengthen Venezuela’s capacity to address future crises.

Adjoining annexes include the TOR for the Venezuela mission, a list of participants interviewed, the Merida newspaper arti‐ cle on the HFP visit, and information on two of the HFP’s basic tools: Scenarios Planning and Futures Groups.

The HFP team is cautious about drawing any definitive conclu‐ sions or making a set of “prescriptive” recommendations in this report. This is due to the complexity of the national con‐ text, the preliminary nature and short‐time frame of the mis‐ sion, the small sample size of interviews and limited number of completed OSAT questionnaires.

The report should be seen as a starting point for further dis‐ cussion on how the UN can make the future more immediate in its own work and how capacities for anticipation, adapta‐ tion, collaboration and innovation can be strengthened. The report emphasizes ways that capacities can be strengthened through the execution of the UNDAF.

The HFP team believes that UN country team in Venezuela is well positioned to serve as a pioneer and a model within the region and, for that matter, the broader UN system for:

• How the UN can effectively support governments with high capacity to address both short‐term shocks and long term threats in a systematic, co‐ herent and forward looking manner and,

• How the strengthening of futures capacities can enhance the UN’s own added‐value in middle‐ income countries with complex humanitarian con‐ texts. • How to develop creative working models and rela‐ tionships within a very complex and polarized po‐ litical environment.

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Section II: Venezuela in a Crisis Context and the UN’s Role General Observations in the middle of execution without any explanation. During the HFP mission the Minister for Health was The HFP team found it easy to engage participants in discuss‐ replaced, thirty radio and media stations were shut ing future challenges that could have humanitarian conse‐ down and the Venezuelan ambassador to Colombia quences in Venezuela. UN personnel and other stakeholders was recalled. This constantly uncertain political dy‐ readily shared their perceptions on current and future crisis namic makes for a highly complex and challenging en‐ threats and the impact that these challenges may have on vironment within which the UN system needs to posi‐ their work in the future. Participants also freely shared their tion its development, human rights and humanitarian perceptions on capacity requirements to effectively address assistance work. those complexities. These reflections are summarized below • The last major disaster event to occur in Venezuela in the form of observations: was in 1999 –the floods and landslides in where • The context and landscape in Venezuela is politically an estimated 30,000 people were killed. Humanitarian sensitive, increasingly centralized, and polarized. Cur‐ issues are a high priority of the UN. One of the five rently there are 27 designated ministries comprised of UNDAF objectives is to address humanitarian threats more than 600 agencies. Increasingly Government and issues through an inter‐agency approach. The functions are being centralized and the private and UNCT has an active UNETE which meets monthly, productive sectors are being nationalized. The last chaired by UNDP. At the national level, the UN has had round of elections in 2008 resulted in 17 states won by difficulty establishing an ongoing working relationship candidates supporting the Government, with six states with the Office of Civil Protection (OCP). While Vene‐ taken by the opposition. Within Caracas itself, 3 of the zuela is reported to have good capacity for prepared‐ 5 municipalities are held by the opposition. Were a ness and response, in terms of performance its capac‐ humanitarian event to occur in any areas held by the ity is also influenced by the current, changing political opposition, this political polarization and fragmenta‐ dynamic. tion would further exacerbate the situation. • There is a high degree of speculation about what may • The Government has shown a lack of consistent in‐ happen in the future. In respect to crisis, the UN and volvement with and commitment towards many inter‐ Government’s emphasis has been on known natural national initiatives (e.g. Kyoto Protocol, Paris Declara‐ hazard events and contingencies, floods, earthquakes, tion, etc.). Venezuela’s preference and priority is to drought and, more recently, on the potential for a pan‐ work bilaterally, with partner countries that share a demic. When probed, a number of other crisis drivers common political vision, such as Cuba, Nicaragua, Bo‐ were identified, particularly those related to risks in livia and Ecuador and further afield Russia and Libya. urban contexts. The potential for convergence of the Venezuela has started to assume a donor role for hu‐ different urban crisis risks is high, e.g. earthquake, in‐ manitarian assistance, providing aid following natural creasing street violence, high inflation, poverty and disasters in the Andean region, the Caribbean and Af‐ income disparity, poor infrastructure, lack of access to rica. However, this assistance has been provided out‐ water and electricity, lack of employment. This conver‐ side the international disaster architecture. The multi‐ gence applies to both large and smaller urban areas. lateral agenda appears to be losing its relevance with a But, it does not seem that it is really being discussed. diminishing and unclear role for the international com‐ • The different UN organizations recognize the benefits munity in Venezuela. Understandably, this is of con‐ for the UN to have a “unified” image and message that cern. clearly summarizes its added‐value and promotes its • The UN’s work is regularly and negatively impacted by achievements. External stakeholders, particularly the shifting within ministries and chronic transfer and those in Government, do not have a high level of un‐ turnover of personnel in Government at all levels, of‐ derstanding on the UN system’s role in Venezuela. In ten with little to no notice. Projects are often stopped fact, in some cases, the opinion expressed about the

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Section III: Preliminary Findings A. Future crisis drivers from the Government for the UNDAF’s implementation and Venezuela has not reported in the last four years on its The following eight preliminary findings relate specifically to achievements for the MDGs. futures‐capacity which are organized around four broad HFP capacities: The UN organizations do not have a common approach for the UNDAF’s implementation. Participants cited many good 1. Capacity for longer‐term strategic thinking and examples of principles that could serve as the basis for devel‐ planning oping commonality, e.g. give preference to working with 2. Systematic information gathering and synthesis states and municipalities rather than the institutional or na‐ tional level, or have a common emphasis on south‐south and 3. Adaptation and Innovation triangular cooperation, etc. This could then be reflected in 4. Collaboration, networks and partnerships annual, organizational workplans, against which targets and outcomes could be measured and resources mobilized or allo‐ The findings include seven graphs derived from the OSAT cated. As one participant noted, “It is important to be strate‐ questionnaires, completed by 13 UN personnel. For logistical gic about what you try to do with the Government as it is easy reasons only 2 OSAT’s were returned from external stake‐ for things to fail.” holders. Thus, the findings speak primarily to the UN’s capac‐ ity to address future humanitarian challenges and, secondar‐ The UN also needs a clear message that “brands” the UN’s ily, to that of the Government. role and promotes its work in a Venezuela. This could elevate the UN’s external image and its added‐value. The recently Summary: Preliminary Finding 1 created UNCT webpage for Venezuela (www.onu.org.ve) is an Long‐term strategies that define clear end states and change excellent resource which could be easily modified to serve as outcomes for the future that can readily translate into a co‐ a key outreach and advocacy mechanism for a broad external herent message on the UN’s role and added value need to audience. be formulated. Summary: Preliminary Finding 2 The MDGs serve as the optimal strategic framework for the Future crisis drivers considered to be of high importance UN’s programme in Venezuela. A comprehensive Common need to be better reflected in organizational policies and Country Assessment exercise in 2006 provided the foundation operational activities and overall capacity needs to be for the formulation of the UNDAF for the period of 2009‐ strengthened. 2013. For the UNDAF’s formulation, UN colleagues focused on ensuring that the five objectives directly aligned with the Gov‐ Key informant interviews and the OSAT questionnaire can‐ ernment’s own development plan for this same period. vassed perceptions on the most important drivers of future crisis in Venezuela. The general and organizational nature of the UNDAF per se does not provide for a clearly articulated vision for change The top crisis drivers prioritized in the OSAT include: that can be monitored and tested against systematically iden‐ tified future crisis drivers. The UNDAF could be strengthened 1. Increasing numbers of urban poor by having an overarching and clearly articulated vision for 2. Climate induced disasters change contextualized to Venezuela which incorporates 3. Water access threats from future crisis drivers. 4. Collapse of state structures The five UNDAF objectives are conceived to be consistent 5. Declining food availability with Government priorities. However several participants questioned the extent to which there is Government owner‐ 6. Resource scarcity driven conflict ship of the UNDAF. There have not been any matching funds

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Figure 1: summarizes the top crisis drivers in terms of their perceived importance, as well as their probability and im‐

pact. Increasing urban poverty ranks as the highest future crisis driver. This is consistent with the information provided in the key informant inter‐ views that highlighted the urban composition of Vene‐ zuela. Climate change is seen to be a serious threat, despite the lack of concurrence by the Government on the relevance

of climate change to Vene‐ Figure 1 zuela.

The findings on crisis drivers stimulate several questions: • To what extent was the UNDAF’s formulation informed by these different crisis drivers?

• To what extent can the drivers be integrated into implementation strategies for the five UNDAF objectives? • What would need to change in order for this to occur?

Figure 2: Climate change induced disas‐ ters rank the highest in terms of their future probability and impact. While the relationship between climate in‐ duced disasters, increasing urban pov‐ erty and human vulnerability was not explored in great depth during the mis‐ sion; further analysis on these linkages would be useful. Two additional areas for further study could be a) the extent to which disaster risks are integrated into the UN’s climate change work, e.g. UNDP’s Global Environment Facility, FAO, and/or b) the potential to which UNDAF priority five should specifically have disaster risk reduction issues due to climate change as one of its focus Figure 2 areas.

Other future crisis drivers that were identified in the key informant interviews include: potential for interstate conflict; fire; chemical and tech‐ nical accidents associated with the oil and chemical sectors; lack of a national job creation/employment scheme for the graduating university population; an economic base that is over‐dependent on oil; the absence of growth oriented industrial and food production sectors; land ten‐ ure issues; rapidly escalating levels of urban crime and violence; the high population growth rate of the urban poor including teenagers; the lack of investment in internal infrastructure such as the electricity sector; brain drain.

Displaced populations and the potential for increased migration due to climate issues, human security threats and disasters were reported to be two “silent” but potentially powerful future crisis drivers. On the part of Government officials, the crisis drivers they identified ranked earth‐ quakes as the first (including tsunamis), followed by human security and declining food availability.

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Figure 3

Figures 3 and 4: For the majority of the crisis drivers, capacity is considered to be lower than their perceived importance. The capacity to re‐ spond to threats from climate changed induced disasters was ranked the highest. This could be a positive reflection on the UNETE’s recent pre‐ paredness work, though this has focused more on known contingencies e.g. floods and earthquakes. The perception that there is high capacity to address climate induced disasters could also reflect the fact that environmental issues, including climate change, is a major thrust of UNDP’s and FAO’s work. OIM and UNHCR both work with conflict displaced populations in the border areas. They noted that security issues and in‐ creased migration due to climate change could very well impact their future work and have capacity implications for their organizations.

Figure 4: Climate change induced disasters rank as the crisis driver for which there is high capacity and which is incorporated into organizational policy and opera‐ tional planning. The nature of

the crisis drivers suggest that any efforts to enhance capacity to

address the drivers need to be conceived in a way that takes into account their changing nature and their inter‐relationship to one another, from a technical, economic, social and political perspective. This would help to devise integrated solutions to complex issues such as lack of access to water and food in a highly urbanized context. It would, however, necessitate, that the crisis drivers are well inte‐

grated into policy and planning frameworks and operational Summary: Preliminary Finding 3 Figure 4 processes. 14 VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

Summary: Preliminary Finding 3 Summary: Preliminary Finding 4

Short‐term planning frameworks do not provide incentives Current capacity for systematic trend analysis and informa‐ for or adequate space for staff to plan for the future or for tion gathering needs to be strengthened to anticipate and the long‐term. plan for longer‐term, future crisis drivers.

Anticipation is the ability of organizations to look ahead and to identify and understand threats and opportunities on the horizon. Two contrasting views were expressed about antici‐ pation. One view was skeptical about the value of trying to plan for the long‐term in an environment that is in constant flux and change. A second opinion was that in a complex envi‐ ronment such as Venezuela, the UN needs to think very stra‐ tegically and have the capacity to address vulnerability issues from a holistic and from a futures perspective.

The graph below suggests that that there is a lack of dedi‐ cated time for planning for the future. Current planning and funding cycles, along with a perceived need to respond to the immediate are not conducive to promoting strategic thinking Figure 6 and the type of long‐term planning (5 years or more) that working effectively in a highly complex environment, in fact, demands. Currently, there is a high discrepancy between the time needed and the actual time that is available to do long‐term, On the part of Government it was noted that its own short‐ futures orientated planning. There needs to be a better bal‐ term planning frameworks do not allow for managing more ance between a focus on the “here and now” and more long‐ cumulative disasters that can occur. For example, heavy rains term, strategic thinking and planning. can easily generate a humanitarian crisis for which the Gov‐ ernment does not necessarily have in place the required plan‐ The correlation between long‐term planning and having good ning or crisis management measures. Lack of access to avail‐ evidence of crisis threats was understood by those inter‐ able information on risks and improvised and weak response viewed. There was a general feeling that the UN’s own inter‐ roles at the State level were of concern to the external techni‐ nal capacity is weak for trend monitoring and analysis and for cal experts that were interviewed. anticipating longer‐term crisis drivers that could lead to major humanitarian crises.

The current context in Venezuela is not conducive to trans‐ parent information gathering, exchange and dissemination. The Government’s current position does appear to place a high value on information reliability and transparency. Poor intra and inter‐ministerial coordination mechanisms foster compartmentalization of information, a lack of dialogue and poor communication. Overall the dissemination of informa‐ tion was reported to be problematic and that which is pro‐ duced is not considered to be reliable. Note was made that in 2006 the Ministry of Interior stopped publishing figures and that the second report on progress for the MDGs has not been produced (it was due in 2005). These factors make it difficult for the UN to establish acceptable benchmarks and to measure impact. Figure 5

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That said, the UN has very successfully forged a strong work‐ good practice, and information resources that are available in ing relationship with the National Institute of Statistics to help the country for humanitarian, risk and crisis threats. Also, modernize the information and knowledge management sys‐ there does there appear to be any systematic research under‐ tem and to support the implementation of its Strategic Plan, taken to better understand future crisis drivers. The lack of a 2009‐2013. This work involves several UN organizations in‐ central, reliable mechanism contributes to and further exacer‐ cluding UNDP, PAHO, UNIFEM, and FAO. This relationship bates perceived problems related to duplication of effort, provides a good example of inter‐agency collaboration and reinventing the wheel, compartmentalization of information, how the UN can “brand” its image. and an overall lack of dialogue and exchange between differ‐ ent key stakeholders. The respective UN organizations have their own information sources and networks. Many have strong links with well es‐ Venezuela’s high disaster response capacity and reluctance to tablished scientific and technical resources within the country accept “outside” assistance, suggests that the UN may want and the region. All the UN organizations interviewed noted to rethink its disaster role to be more oriented to prevention the strength of the UN’s convening role and its unique ability and risk reduction and less to response. Several participants to provide a neutral space for dialogue on important issues advocated that the UN should fill the information repository without politicizing them. gap for humanitarian and futures crisis matters, recognizing that capacity and resource issues for this would need to be The limitations to more robust trend analysis and monitoring secured. were perceived to be: short‐term planning frameworks, lack of incentives, competition between UN organizations, lack of Summary: Preliminary Finding 6 capacity, lack of networking outside one’s own community or UN organizations demonstrate a high capacity for innovation thematic area, lack of matching funds from the Government and for adaptation as core competencies for working effec‐ for the UNDAF’s implementation. tively in a complex environment. Summary: Preliminary Finding 5 Adaptation relates to the ability of organizations to act once a Information on crisis drivers and humanitarian threats threat has been identified and to modify direction in response within Venezuela and the UN is not well systematized, easily to changing environments. Innovation is the capacity to iden‐ accessible or sufficiently shared. tify and take on new ideas from a wide range of sources that have the potential to provide solutions to new and changing In the HFP meeting with the UNETE participants commented threats. This includes not only technologies but also new on the fact that there is a lack of systematization of the UN’s types of processes, approaches and systems. own humanitarian experience. The lack of harmonization of different organizational disaster plans was given as one exam‐ Several UN organizations spoke about their capacity to adapt ple of this fragmentation of the UN’s crisis experience. Citing to the changing and unpredictable landscape. The key to the UN’s response to the Vargas floods, the view was that if working successfully is to be agile, flexible and to be able to another event were to occur the UN would be likely to experi‐ programme to context. The organizations that work in crisis ence the same internal coordination problems as they did in issues spoke to the how their emergencies work actually 1999. UNETE members were also of the view that if a major helped them to work more flexibly and innovatively. Several hazard event were to occur in Venezuela, the UN’s relief and emphasized the need to stay focused on the UN’s mission and response role would probably be limited. Similar to the Var‐ the need to do this in a way that appears to be consistent gas event, the Government will be very selective about the with Government priorities. The following “good practices” support it will accept from the UN, due to its own high capac‐ for innovation and adaptation were shared: ity and to political reasons. Innovations and Adaptations Currently, Venezuela does not count with any central infor‐ • Work on a small scale, not too big, not at too high a mation platform or repository whose function is to collect, level, not regionally. Think small and think local. systematize and make accessible the rich array of research, • Work with middle ranking government representatives,

16 VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

lated work. It would also be useful to identify how technology their personnel turnover is not as constant as high rank‐ does and could support the UN to be innovative in its humani‐ ing officials tarian work. • Maintain a low profile in your work but maintain a high profile for what you are doing by promoting successes Collaboration and evidence of what works. Summary: Preliminary Finding 7 • Keep a good paperwork trail of what’s been done so when new counterparts or authorities are appointed The UN needs to strengthen its internal collaboration in or‐ they can be easily briefed and brought up to speed. der to address the challenges of the future. • Cultivate and maintain an extensive network of informal and technical contacts at multiple levels; relationships Being collaborative means being able to work with a range of are of utmost importance in areas where you seek to actors to jointly address future crises. Collaboration can in‐ deliver services and with your counterpart ministry. volve different kinds of relationships from sharing information or expertise to joint programming or pooling of resources. • Focus on key issues but in a manner that does not be‐ come political. There are many good examples of the UN’s internal collabora‐ • Consistently show a willingness to collaborate as an tion for programming. These include, the UN’s work with the equal partner and if this requires being pro‐active and National Institute of Statistics for gender and for knowledge lobbying with the Government –you need to do it. management; the inter‐agency composition of the UNETE and • Have clear change objectives about what will be done. joint programme initiatives for UNDAF priority 5; and the har‐ • Be attentive to where and with whom you work. monization of annual workplanning and budgeting processes by UNDP, UNIFEM and UNFPA. Steps are also underway to • Give emphasis to south‐south approaches and triangular have common administrative services to increase cost‐ cooperation that will capitalize on the capacity that re‐ effectiveness. The RC’s efforts to strengthen UN collaboration sides in Venezuela. were noted. • Take advantage of emergent opportunities ‐“when the Ministry of Health called WHO/PAHO to help with the While there is an openness to collaborate on the part of the swine flu –they were ready to help.” UN organizations, this capacity needs to be strengthened in order for the UNCT to work in a more futures oriented way for The factors that constrained working effectively in the current its humanitarian work. This could start with the harmoniza‐ context included: perceived lack of compatibility of the UN’s tion of the different disaster plans, including their alignment organizational mandate with Government’s priorities; compe‐ with the UN’s overall disaster response plan. tition between UN organizations and differences in capacity Summary: Preliminary Finding 8 and resources; lack of guidance from headquarters on the UN’s development and humanitarian role in middle income External stakeholders would like to see the UN assume a countries; lack of sensitivity at headquarters on what it re‐ stronger role in building relationships and providing tool for quires to work in highly complex political context; lack of re‐ crisis management for use at the local level wards and incentives for risk taking, adaptation and innova‐ tion; lack of feedback and systematization of what works in External partners felt that UN could assume a stronger role in practice; dependence on programming and change models building partnerships, networking and collaboration. In the that do not readily adapt to contexts that are complex and current climate of low transparency for information gather‐ less predictable. ing, dissemination and exchange, there is a need for tools for early warning on crisis management and for information to be In respect to how the UN’s capacity for innovation and adap‐ produced with a degree of analytical independence. tation translates to its humanitarian work and to addressing future crisis drivers, the findings are less clear. Further analy‐ The current climate is also not conducive to setting up mutual sis could identify how the UN’s capacity for working flexibly cooperation frameworks between national and sub‐national and with agility can apply to its crisis and humanitarian re‐ actors, where there is high need. These relationships are criti‐

17 VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

cal to foster the emergence of stronger consent, commitment and credibility, and to build trust among peers around com‐ mon crisis issues and concerns.

The UN has made repeated overtures to collaborate with the Office of Civil Protection (OCP). That said the prevailing view was that the UN and OCP do not have a strong working rela‐ tionship at the national level. At the same time, one partici‐ pant commented “you cannot wait until something happens to establish a relationship with your key counterpart”, sug‐ gesting that the UN needs to be more pro‐active with OCP and more strategic about the collaboration. In the HFP meet‐ ings with OCP in Caracas and Merida staff expressed a high level of receptivity to working with the UN, particularly for Philipp Shonrock (left) HFP, Marilin Machego‐ Ingeomin, Luis Diaz‐ earthquake preparedness. Director OCP, Marisol Uzcategui‐ Ingeomin, Ricardo Petit‐ UNDP.

Figure 7

Figure 7: In the future, UN organizations feel that they will work more with NGOs and Red Cross, regional organizations, acade‐ mia and Government. The increased collaboration with NGOs could reflect the Government’s preference to work through volun‐ tary and community organizations and the potential for the UN to work more closely with these actors, e.g. firefighters. The graph also shows that some think that there will be a decreased level of collaboration with the Government in the future, as well as with internet based groups and with the private sector. Currently, the private sector does not seem to be well positioned in Venezuela. This may account for its low ranking as a future collaborating partner for the UN’s humanitarian work. Academics interviewed were very receptive to working more closely with the UN.

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Section IV: Scenarios for Enhancing Futures Crisis Capacity

The following ten recommendations are for the consideration (perhaps the UNETE) tasked with selecting and researching of the UN RC and the UNCT. The HFP team offers these sce‐ the crisis drivers, designing and implementing the exercise, narios to stimulate further thinking and dialogue within the and coordinating follow‐up. UNCT for on how to strengthen futures capacities. Any ap‐ 2. Conduct a futures audit of one or more UN organiza‐ proach to strengthening futures capacity will likely be an in‐ tions and their key counterparts cremental one, consisting of a mix of short and long‐term interventions. For any of the proposed scenarios, the HFP is A scenarios planning exercise could also be organized with available to work in a partnership capacity with the UN. one or more UN organizations or, for that matter, the UNETE. The exercise could be undertaken with the participation of The scenarios comprise three types of actions: key Government counterparts and other partners. It would • Those that strengthen the UN’s internal capac‐ test out a specific crisis driver and its potential impact, e.g. ity to make long‐term humanitarian threats disaster risk/climate change and food security or crisis drivers more immediate in the context of its own work. related to youth or for displaced populations, etc. (Recommendations: 1, 3,4,6,7), The exercise could be organized at the State or municipal • Those that strengthen collaboration between level. The outcomes from the scenario exercise could be the the UN, Government and other key counter‐ formulation of strategies and measures that the UN and its parts within the context of ongoing pro‐ partners can take to better address long‐term crisis drivers in grammes and/or relationships the context of their joint work. The exercise should be guided (Recommendations: 2, 9,) by the work of a multi‐stakeholder planning group. • New initiatives to strengthen Venezuela’s ca‐ 3. Futures capacities training for the UNCT pacity to better address long‐term crisis threats and humanitarian gaps (Recommendations 5, 8) A training module on humanitarian futures could build capaci‐ Capacities for Strategic Thinking and Long‐term ties for strategic thinking on longer–term humanitarian Planning Capacity threats. The training could be designed around core compe‐ tencies for long‐term strategic thinking, information analysis,

enhanced collaboration and innovative practices. The training 1. Conduct a futures audit of the UNCT could be developed in a way that produces a tools package A first and easy step to strengthen the UN’s capacity to antici‐ that UN organizations can then adapt and use in the context pate long‐term threats in a systematic way is a scenarios plan‐ of their own work, including how to design and run futures ning exercise. The purpose of the exercise would be to scenarios exercises. “futures test” the UNDAF against one or more of the long‐ 4. Redesign the UN Venezuela’s webpage term crisis drivers identified during the HFP mission, e.g. hu‐ man security and vulnerability in the event of a major earth‐ The webpage can benefit from a redesign to be a more user‐ quake in an urban context. friendly portal in terms of language, graphics and navigation. The webpage could showcase the UN’s partnerships, its col‐ Scenario planning can support organizations to plan for uncer‐ laboration with Government and the capacity that resides in tainty by testing assumptions and strategic priorities against a Venezuela. In fact, the webpage could include a futures sec‐ range of possible futures. The scenario exercise would include tion that speaks to the UN’s partnership with Venezuela to an assessment of what the UN is currently doing to address address long‐term crisis threats. the specific crisis drivers and what it could be doing in the future, including the formulation of follow‐up strategies.

The UNCT can form a small inter‐agency planning group

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Capacities for Information Gathering and Analysis 6. Establish a futures early warning system

5. Establish a platform for humanitarian information and Having a “Futures Early Warning System” would strengthen long‐term crisis drivers the UN’s capacity to anticipate long‐term future threats and opportunities. This could be coordinated through the Infor‐ A web‐portal was felt to be the best way of publicizing the mation Platform (Recommendation 5), drawing on expertise different initiative processes and results. This proposed infor‐ from within the UN organization, within Venezuela and the mation system to be developed and maintained by UNETE. region. The purpose of the system would be to identify and analyze factors that may impact on the UN’s work and the The information platform framework is based on improving communities it serves in the future, in a positive or a negative the information sharing, planning, prioritizing and coordina‐ way. The system would use horizon scanning and trend moni‐ tion of crisis management initiatives, in order to meet the toring, scanning sectors outside the traditional humanitarian demands of the different stakeholders within Venezuela. The and development would include military, sciences, techno‐ key national stakeholders are: government, public institu‐ logical and the corporate sector. tions, universities, civil society organizations, media and the general public. All stakeholders would be able to use the in‐ formation platform as an input for their activities. The data The system could be designed in a way that draws upon con‐ may be drawn from all types of sources but they should com‐ ventional models and methods for early warning and futures plement one of the following topics: methodology, up to a two decade perspective. It needs to incorporate an effective system of prioritization, communica‐ Themes: risk identification and assessment on poverty, tion of issues and clear dissemination of information for effec‐ crisis drivers research, urban vulnerability and tive decision making and strategy‐operational alignment. The risk issues, governance and risk reduction, risk system could be guided, in part, by the Futures Group (see reduction and sustainable development, the the next scenario). economic impact of disasters, preparedness, response and recovery for specific hazard and 7. Establish a Futures Group crisis threats, innovation for crisis management and humanitarian assistance, gender and risk The UN could establish a Futures Group comprised of natural reduction, etc. and social scientists, principally from academic and research centers and organizations. These individuals could inform the Tools: collection, organization, peer review and access UN’s work to better monitor and integrate future crisis trends to tools, techniques, instruments and method‐ and drivers into its ongoing work and to identify emerging ologies that have been produced by different technologies or new innovations to support strategic plan‐ organizations, e.g. risk assessment, vulnerability ning. Collaborating in this way with external actors capitalizes reduction, programming to context, community on the UN’s convening role and its role in promoting dialogue. resilience and preparedness, mainstreaming of It would also help to elevate the UN’s public image and to risk and crisis drivers into development pro‐ bring in resources that few UN organizations would have the gramming, simulations and scenario planning capacity to develop internally that will be necessary to ad‐ tools, technology for crisis management, inno‐ dress long‐term, complex and uncertain future issues. vative practices, etc.

Dialogue: forums to showcase national and sub‐national Capacities for Adaptation, Innovation and experiences in Venezuela, dialogue processes Collaboration between scientists, technical personnel and humanitarian policy makers and planners to 8. Create a capacity development pilot for urban future discuss futures crisis issues’ good practice fo‐ crisis drivers rums to share innovative practices for crisis management. This could be a pilot activity at the State or municipal level to

20 VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

test out an approach for how the Government can enhance issue of longer‐term vulnerability. An inter‐agency project its capacity to holistically address urban risk issues. The work could look at disaster risk issues in the context of the UN’s would need to be undertaken through some form of an inter‐ work with the National Institute of Statistics or the Ministry of institutional coordination mechanism, existing or new, in part‐ Gender. Or, a promising opportunity might be with UNDP’s nership with key actors in Venezuela. The findings from this Sustainable Local Development work in 13 States, focusing on pilot could then be scaled up to other urban areas in Vene‐ income generation and the prevention of violence with low‐ zuela and could inform the UN’s humanitarian work in urban, income women and men. middle‐income contexts. A joint project could present the UN organizations with an Activities within the pilot could include: organizational capac‐ opportunity to see how such inter‐agency activities could be ity assessment for urban risk crisis drivers, organizational and developed. The project could serve as a pilot to test out an cross‐organizational training on the four HFP capacities, multi‐ inter‐agency approach for addressing crisis drivers in a futures stakeholder dialogue forums for developing urban risk reduc‐ oriented way that makes effective use of the resources and tion strategies and/or developing implementation plans for expertise of the UN system. risk reduction policy frameworks, south–south cooperation, organizational network strengthening, etc. UNDP’s Capacity Development Group in Panama could be a potential partner for this work.

9. Make south–south and triangular cooperation a cross‐ cutting element of the UN’s humanitarian and futures crisis drivers work.

South–south cooperation is already a successfully tried and tested strategy of the UN and one that is viewed favorably, for the most part, by the Government. Venezuela could bene‐ fit from greater access to the expertise and good practices of others in the region for crisis and risk management. For exam‐ ple, Cuba is perceived as a role model by Venezuela and is well regarded for its preparedness system. Venezuela could also benefit from the experience of other countries that are signatories to the Hyogo Framework for Action and that have good national disaster risk reduction programmes with an urban focus, e.g. Bangladesh, India, China, etc.

This scenario would make south‐south and triangular coop‐ eration a key element of UNDAF Objective 5. UNISDR in Pa‐ nama could be approached to assist with this work. This could strengthen the UN’s leadership role and capacity for south‐ south cooperation for humanitarian and risk related issues.

10. Undertake an inter‐agency futures crisis drivers project

Within the context of its work to implement UNDAF Objective 5 the UNCT, through the UNETE, and under UNDP’s leader‐ ship, could jointly undertake a futures oriented project on an

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Annex A: TOR for the HFP Mission to Venezuela Introduction: Yet, in noting such examples, the issue is not to predict the future, but to assess the capacity of institutions to anticipate At the invitation of the UN Resident Coordinator in Venezuela, what might be. In other words, governments like all with hu‐ the Humanitarian Futures Programme, King’s College, Lon‐ manitarian roles and responsibilities need to have effective don, has been invited to undertake a study of future humani‐ anticipatory capacities to be sensitive to factors that might tarian threats that might affect Venezuela and the efforts that create disasters in the future and also that might mitigate the Government of Venezuela is making to address such their impacts. In a related vein, they, too, must have the ca‐ threats. In requesting this study, the UN Resident Coordinator pacity to be adaptive, or, in other words to be able to readily hopes to identify ways in which the UN Country Team can adjust humanitarian prevention, preparedness and response support the long‐term disaster crisis mitigation efforts of the programmes and policies to new types of humanitarian crises Government. and means to offset them. Background: IAP in the Venezuelan context The Humanitarian Futures Programme [HFP], King’s College, HFP has been requested to undertake a preliminary analysis London, through its multi‐donor funded project, the Inte‐ of the long‐term humanitarian concerns and issues of rele‐ grated Action Programme [IAP], has worked with UN Country vant ministries and departments of the Government of Vene‐ Teams in Africa, South America, South Asia and the Far East to zuela. The overall objective of this initiative is to determine strengthen their capacities to anticipate and prepare for long‐ ways in which the UNCT might be able to support Govern‐ term humanitarian threats. In so doing, the IAP assumes that ment efforts to deal with potential long‐term threats that central to anticipating and preparing to deal with long‐term could create large‐scale humanitarian crises within the coun‐ humanitarian crises are the governments of vulnerable coun‐ try within a decade and a half timeframe. tries. At the same time, the IAP also assumes that UNCTs, in assisting governments, should benefit far more from the UN Specific Objectives system as a whole, and towards this end the IAP has worked 1) in discussions with relevant Government ministries and closely with the Inter‐Agency Standing Committee [IASC] and departments, to identify those potential humanitarian its members. threats which could generate substantial disasters and It is in this context that the UN Resident Coordinator has in‐ emergencies for a significant portion of the Venezuelan vited HFP to undertake a preliminary mission to ascertain the population, or the region, within a fifteen year time long‐term humanitarian crisis concerns of the Government of frame;

Venezuela and the measures that the Government is taking to 2) to review with appropriate authorities how such po‐ anticipate and prepare for such crises. tential humanitarian crisis drivers are currently identi‐

Venezuela is prone to a wide range of potential humanitarian fied and monitored. This objective would also involve communities of natural and social scientists as well as threats, and the Government has taken determined measures to address these. Yet, in light of the demands of the immedi‐ other bodies that influence the Government’s percep‐ ate, there may be issues which the Government needs to con‐ tion of long‐term humanitarian threats; sider that have longer‐term humanitarian implications. In part 3) based on #2 above, to develop an understanding about the source of such potential threats may fall well outside the how Government and related authorities are preparing ability of the Government to address. In this category pan‐ for such long‐term humanitarian threats. This objective demics are a case in point. In part potential threats may not also includes an effort to see how present Government have been recognised for their humanitarian consequences, prevention and preparedness initiatives relate to its and in this category large‐scale systems collapse arising out of perceptions of long‐term humanitarian threats; cyber failures is a case in point. 4) to explore the regional dimensions of major humani‐

22 VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

tarian threats, and the linkage between prevention and threats and the role of the UNCT in supporting its ef‐ preparedness initiatives within Venezuela and the ca‐ forts, HFP would be able to assist by providing appro‐ pacity of the Government to support disaster manage‐ priate documentation, based primarily on the prelimi‐ ment and disaster risk reduction in a regional context; nary assessment report.

5) in collaboration with relevant Government ministries Project Outcomes and departments as well as with relevant authorities, to identify possible humanitarian crisis threats that are 1) Based upon this preliminary assessment, it is hoped not incorporated into the Government’s prevention that the following outcomes would result: and preparedness plans and programmes. In so doing, [a] agreement on ways that the UNCT could assist to suggest possible synergies between on‐going Gov‐ the Government of Venezuela to identify and ernment plans and programmes and new types of hu‐ monitor long‐term humanitarian threats; manitarian threats;

6) based upon the preliminary analysis outlined in #1‐4, [b] adjustment wherever feasible of present UNCT above, to determine in collaboration with UNCT mem‐ programmes and projects to strengthen crisis pre‐ bers the relationship between HFP’s initial findings and vention and preparedness both in the immediate the on‐going programmes and projects of UNCT mem‐ and longer‐term; bers. It is assumed that this exercise will clarify possible [c] proposals on ways that new UNCT initiatives ways that the work of the UNCT could be adjusted to could address long‐term crisis prevention and pre‐ meet the identified long‐term humanitarian prevention paredness. and preparedness needs of the Government.

Project Objectives Methodology

1) The principal output of the proposed preliminary as‐ 1) The methodology for the preliminary assessment sessment will be a report which identifies: would be based principally upon in‐depth interviews with relevant Government ministries and departments. [a] perceived long‐term crisis threats; Further interviews would be undertaken with other bodies, including relevant scientific and social scientific [b] Government prevention and preparedness ac‐ research institutes and non‐governmental organisa‐ tivities already underway that relate to addressing tions; such threats, both within Venezuela and the re‐ gion; 2) In parallel with the interview process, HFP would un‐ dertake a preliminary desk‐top study intended to iden‐ [c] long‐term threats that may need to be consid‐ tify major works that identify present and future crisis ered by the Government; threats that pertain to Venezuela;

[d] UNCT programmes and projects that directly or 3) A tailored version of the HFP’s Organisational Self‐ indirectly support on‐going Government preven‐ Assessment Tool [OSAT] will be distributed to an iden‐ tion and preparedness activities; tified group of UNCT members and Government offi‐ cials to be completed during the course of the mission; [e] possible ways that UNCT programmes and pro‐ 4) The HFP preliminary assessment process will initially jects – now and in the future – could help the Gov‐ involve a two week mission to Venezuela to undertake ernment to deal with potential humanitarian interviews and to distribute the OSAT. HFP will rely threats not incorporated in present Government almost entirely upon the office of the UN Resident Co‐ plans; ordinator for appointments with relevant Government 2) Should the Government of Venezuela wish to hold a ministries and departments as well as with members of follow‐up workshop to explore the issue of future crisis the UNCT.

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Annex B: List of Interviewees

Key informant interviews, UNETE Meeting and OSAT completion

Agency Name Position/ Title OSAT KII UNETE Meeting 1 UNDP David McLachlan‐Karr Resident Coordinator

2 UNDP Carlos Sanchez Programme Officer, Disasters x x

3 UNDP Ricardo Petit Programme Officer, Environment

4 UNDP Alberto Fuenmayor Programme Officer, Information x x

5 UNDP Rosa Paredes Human Development Officer x

6 UNDP Yves Sassenrath Deputy Resident Representative

7 PAHO/WHO Jorge J. Jenkins Chief of Mission x

8 PAHO/WHO Jackeline Sanchez x x

9 UNICEF Amanda Martin Acting Chief of Mission x

10 UNICEF Ives Cunill Operations Official x

11 UNICEF Delia Martinez Adolescents Official x x x

12 FAO Francisco Roberto Arias Milla Representative/Chief of Mission x x

13 FAO Carlos Miguel Mendoza Assistant Representative x

14 FAO Maria Elisa Centeno Lugo Programme Assistant x x

15 FAO Victor Urbina Operations Manager x

16 OIM Marisol Fuves Chief of Mission x x x

17 UNHCR John Fredrikson Regional Representative x

18 UNHCR Enrique Ochoa Regional Programme Officer x

19 UNHCR Rosalina Carmeno Programme Officer, Local Development x x

20 UNFPA Jesus E. Robles V. Auxiliary Representative x

21 UNDSS Eduardo Zubillaga Local Security Advisor x x x

22 UNDSS Tim Mitchell Head, Local Security x

23 UNDSS Andreina Carrillo Local Security Assistant x x

24 Virginia Jimenez Diaz UNDP Consultant, Geography and Risk x Management 25 Geographic Alicia Moreau Climatologist (retired) x Institute 26 European Union Mark Fiedrich First Secretary x

Table cont. over page 24 VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

Table continued...

27 European Union Paolo Oberti Cooperation, Operations Sector x

28 Second Secretary, Political Affairs x British Embassy Michael Groves 29 INAMEH‐IDEA Hector Fuenmayor x (Hydro/Met) 30 FM Center Caterina Valentino Journalist x

31 Ministry of Envi‐ Sergio Rodriguez Vice‐Minister x ronment 32 University of Cen‐ Abraham Salcedo and Maria Researchers and Professors x tral Venezuela Teresa Martelo 33 INGEOMIN Avilio Lavarca President x

34 INGEOMIN Maryln Machego Coordinator, Science Mission x

35 Mayor B Ludmila Gomez Office of Security Management, Chacao x

36 FUNVISIS Daniel Moreno Chief of Documentation & Information x

37 FUNVISIS Antonio Aguilar Professor, Seismic Prevention x

38 FUNVISIS Juan Luis Guzman Expert x

39 FUNVISIS Niurka Vizcaya Sociologist x

40 UNDP consultant Mayor Alcadia de Santa Cruz de Mora x

41 Office of Civil Luis Diaz Director x Protection

Focus Group, 4 August, 2009, Caracas

FUNVISIS, Bomberos, Ministerio de Educacion, Protecion Civil, Corpovargas, Ministerio de Ambiente, Sociedad Venezolana de Tecnicos Superiores, Universitarios en Manejo de Emergencias and Accion Contra Desastres (SOVETSUMEACD).

Focus Group, 10 August, 2009, Merida

Fundacite, Universidad de los Andes, Gobernacion de Merida, Ingeomin, Proteccion Civil.

25 VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

Annex C: Newspaper Article on Philipp’s Visit to Merida

PHILIPP SCHONROCK: "PREVENIR DESDE EL FU‐ Cruz Roja Internacional. TURO LO QUE PUEDE VENIR" Es importante recordar que en Venezuela el crecimiento po‐ El profesor Philipp Schonrock, representante de la misión pre‐ blacional se ha desarrollado de manera desordenada y poco liminar del Programa Futuros Humanitarios del Kingś College regulada y una de las consecuencias que esto acarrea es que de Londres, visitó la ciudad de Mérida para sostener un en‐ más del 80 % de la población vive sobre una franja estrecha cuentro en Fundacite‐Mérida con instituciones, actores y conocida como el sistema de fallas principal de Venezuela, estudiantes ligados al tema de la Gestión de Riesgo. integrada por la falla de Bocono, el sistema de fallas de San Durante la sesión de trabajo participaron y expusieron sus Sebastian y el sistema de fallas del Pilar. Todas nuestras prin‐ experiencias los representantes de las siguientes insti‐ cipales ciudades están colocadas sobre ese sistema de fallas, tuciones: Fundación para el Desarrollo de la Ciencia y la Tec‐ con la excepción de . Es por ello que se están lle‐ nología de Mérida, Fundacite Mérida; Centro de Investigación vando a cabo esfuerzos coordinados tanto de instituciones en Gestión Integral de Riesgos, Cigir; Fundación Venezolana de Investigaciones Sismológicas, Funvisis; Fundación para la Prevención del Riesgo Sismico, Fundapris, Universidad de los Andes, ULA; Instituto Universitario Tecnológico de Ejido, Iute, Comision Regional de Educación Preventiva Escolar, Crepe, Oficina de Proyectos de la Gobernación del estado Mérida, así como estudiantes ligados al tema.

Schonrock fue invitado a Venezuela por el coordinador resi‐ dente de las Naciones Unidas en Venezuela, para conocer las experiencias locales con miras a apoyar futuras iniciativas que se puedan generar en Venezuela frente a temas humanitarios, tanto desastres naturales como desastres tecnológicos, en la busqueda de cómo se puede prevenir mejor desde el futuro.

El profesor Schonrock, quien lleva dos semanas en el país, refirió acerca de su visita “Estamos haciendo un trabajo de públicas como de organizaciones no gubernamentales para contextualización de información, para escuchar las voces despertar mayor conciencia en la población sobre la impor‐ vivas de Venezuela que trabajan en la gestión de riesgos, tancia de la gestión de riesgos y la acción humanitaria para aprender de ellos sobre sus mejores prácticas e intercambiar atender eficazmente los posibles desastres tanto naturales información a todos los niveles. Buscamos conocer cuales pudieran ser futuros escenarios de trabajo para Naciones Uni‐ como tecnológicos. das y también para Venezuela”.

El Programa Futuros Humanitarios está diseñado para poten‐ ciar las capacidades de anticipación y adaptación de las or‐ ganizaciones que son responsables de prevenir, prepararse para y responder a las crisis humanitarias. El objetivo superior es ayudar a las organizaciones que intervienen en respuestas humanitarias a ser más eficaces al responder a futuras crisis más complejas. El Programa es apoyado por un creciente número de auspiciadores bilaterales, multilaterales, no guber‐ namentales y del sector corporativo, trabajan en Africa, Asia Pacifico, Europa del Este y Latinoamerica, apoyados por la

26 VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

Annex D: Description of Futures Scenario Planning

Joanne do a summary from doc and shared drive and insert here

27 VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

Annex E: Information on the Futures Group

Joanne do a summary from doc and shared drive and insert here

28 VENEZUELA – Mission Report September 2009

Annex F: Glossary of Terms BCPR Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recov‐ UNFPA UN Population Fund ery UNHCR UN High Commissioner for Refugees DRR Disaster Risk Reduction UNICEF United Nations International Children’s FAO UN Food and Agriculture Organisation Emergency Fund

FG Futures Group UNISDR UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction GEF Global Environment Facility UNOCHA UN Office for Coordination of Humanitar‐ HFP Humanitarian Futures Programme ian Affairs MDGs Millennium Development Goals

NGO Non‐Governmental Organisation

OCP Office of Civil Protection

OIM Office of International Migration

OSAT Organisational Self‐ Assessment Tool

PAHO/WHO Pan American Health Organisation/ World Health Organisation

RC (UN) Resident Coordinator UN System

TOR’s Terms of Reference

UNAIDS Joint UN Programme on HIV/AIDS

UNCT United Nations Country Team

UNDAF United Nations Development Assistance Framework

UN DMT UN Disaster Management Team

UNDP United Nations Development Pro‐ gramme

UNDP/CDG UNDP/Capacity Development Group

UNDSS UN Department of Safety and Security

UNESCO UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation

UNETE UN Technical and Emergency Team

UNIFEM UN Development Fund for Women

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If you would like more information about the Humanitarian Futures Programme, please contact our offices on +44 (0)20 7848 2869, and speak to one of our HFP team members.

Alternatively contact us at info@humanitarian futures.org, or go to our website at www.humanitraianfutures.org

If you would prefer to write to us, please do so via the Programme Co‐ ordinator:

Humanitarian Futures Programme School of Science and Public Policy King’s College London 138‐142 Strand London