Community Infrastructure Fund Cif 2 Postwick Hub Full

Community Infrastructure Funding CIF 2 Postwick Hub Full Business Case

COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE FUND CIF 2

POSTWICK HUB

FULL BUSINESS CASE

NORFOLK COUNTY COUNCIL

OCTOBER 2008

CONTENTS

Project Summary Information 1 Overview 1 Project Plan 2 Promoter Information 3 NATA Appraisal Summary Table 5

1 Scheme Description 1-1 1.1 Background 1-2 1.2 Postwick Hub - Preferred Scheme 1-3

2 Strategic Case 2-1 2.1 Background information 2-1 2.2 Scheme objectives 2-8 2.3 Scheme history and development 2-9 2.4 Strategic Fit 2-12

3 Value for Money Case 3-1 3.1 Introduction 3-1 3.2 Capital Costs 3-1 3.3 Operating Costs 3-3 3.4 Cost Benefit Analysis 3-4 3.5 New Approach to Appraisal Assessment 3-1 3.6 NATA Supporting Analyses 3-30

4 Delivery Case 4-34 4.1 Strategic Project Governance 4-34 4.2 Project Delivery and Staffing 4-37 4.3 Project Programme 4-39 4.4 Park & Ride 4-40 4.5 Risk Management 4-41 4.6 Stakeholder and Community Engagement 4-41

5 Commercial Case 5-1 5.1 Preferred procurement route 5-1 5.2 Risk share 5-5 5.3 Contract monitoring 5-6

5.4 Council’s experience 5-6

6 Financial Case 6-1 6.1 Detailed cost breakdowns 6-1 6.2 Independent verification of costs 6-4 6.3 Inflation 6-4 6.4 Quantified Risk Assessment 6-5 6.5 Optimism Bias 6-5 6.6 Funding 6-5 6.7 Summary of Funding Package 6-6 6.8 Revenue Funding 6-6

LIST OF APPENDICES

Appendix 1A Figure 1.1

Appendix 2A Figure 2.1

Appendix 3A Modelling Appendix 3B Environment Worksheets Appendix 3C Safety Worksheets Appendix 3D Economy Worksheets Appendix 3E Accessibility Worksheets Appendix 3F Integration Worksheets Appendix 3G Appraisal Summary Table Appendix 3H Distribution and Equity

Appendix 4A Summary of Senior Responsible Officer's Experience Appendix 4B Programme for Scheme Delivery Appendix 4C Risk Registers Appendix 4D Letters of support Appendix 4E Timetable of communication with statutory bodies

Appendix 6A Growth Point Funding Announcement

ii Community Infrastructure Funding CIF 2 Postwick Hub Full Business Case

Project Summary Information

Overview

Project Title

Postwick Hub Major Scheme

Location Map

The project location is just to the north of the A47 dual carriageway on the east perimeter of Norwich.

Summary Description

S1 Project Summary Information Community Infrastructure Funding CIF 2 Postwick Hub Full Business Case

Scheme Objectives

• Improve the operation of this overcapacity trunk road junction • Remove a Highways Agency “Article 14 Direction of Refusal” for allocated employment development at Broadland Business Park • Release land to the north of Dussindale Park for 600 new houses • To provide additional jobs at Broadland Business Park and support the continued success of the Norwich economy • To co-locate housing and jobs to encourage sustainable commuting • Remove substantial numbers of car trips into Norwich city centre by providing 500 extra spaces at the Postwick Park & Ride

Total Bid for CIF Funding

The total bid for CIF funding including allowance for risk and inflation up to implementation, but excluding optimism bias, is £21million. Quarterly payments are anticipated in line with the expenditure profile below.

Project Plan

Programme

The planning and design phase of the project commenced in May 2008. Design work will continue following the submission of the Full Business Case to ensure that the scheme can be delivered as planned in the event that the bid is successful.

The construction phase of the project is programmed to commence in October 2009 and for completion in March 2011. Please see section 4 of this document for details.

Project governance

The project is governed by a Project Board including senior representatives of Norfolk County Council. Section 4 of this document provides full details of project governance arrangements.

Planning process

The successful delivery of this project is reliant on receiving planning approval in May 2009.

Key milestones

Payments are anticipated on a quarterly basis commencing at the end of the first quarter after construction.

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Expenditure Profile

Quarterly Spend Profile Postwick Junction Cost element Preliminaries Site clearance Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011

PRELIMINARIES £446,534.14 £446,534.14 £446,534.14 £446,534.14 £446,534.14 £446,534.14 SITE CLEARANCE £38,430.38 FENCING £23,726.25 £23,726.25 SAFETY FENCING £12,817.53 £12,817.53 DRAINAGE £270,697.04 £270,697.04 £270,697.04 EARTHWORKS £54,618.94 £54,618.94 £54,618.94 £54,618.94 PAVEMENTS £768,680.25 £768,680.25 KERBS AND FOOTWAYS £35,582.05 £35,582.05 TRAFFIC SIGNS AND ROAD MARKINGS £255,499.75 £255,499.75 LIGHTING £100,770.00 £100,770.00 STRUCTURES £1,884,000.00 £1,884,000.00 £1,884,000.00 LANDSCAPING £5,137.12 £5,137.12 £5,137.12 ACCOMMODATION WORKS £146,975.95 £146,975.95 £146,975.95 STATUTORY SERVICES * £606,229.48 £606,229.48 QRA £652,362.25 £652,362.25 £652,362.25 £652,362.25 ECI FEE £204,178.22 £204,178.22 £204,178.22 £204,178.22 £204,178.22 £204,178.22 LAND £440,000.00

£2,651,487.93 £3,219,287.02 £4,118,620.07 £2,989,183.90 £2,899,234.29 £1,859,857.00

£2,770,804.88 £3,364,154.94 £4,497,636.08 £3,264,263.55 £3,166,036.33 £2,031,010.34

Park and ride site £1,000,000.00 £1,000,000.00

Total CIF Bid £3,770,804.88 £4,364,154.94 £4,497,636.08 £3,264,263.55 £3,166,036.33 £2,031,010.34

Rounded Quarterly submission figures £3,750,000.00 £4,350,000.00 £4,500,000.00 £3,200,000.00 £3,200,000.00 £2,000,000.00

Promoter Information

Legal structure for delivery

The scheme is promoted by Norfolk County Council.

The Park and Ride element of the scheme will be delivered by Norfolk County Council’s Planning and Transportation Strategic Partnership with Mott MacDonald and May Gurney under the existing contractual arrangements. The junction improvements will be delivered by the contractor appointed to construct the Northern Distributor Road, the tenders for which are currently under review.

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Partners’ involvement

Partner Role and Relationship with Responsibilities other partners

Norfolk County Council Local transport authority. Local Strategic Senior responsible Partnership Contractual owner for project. relationships with Mott MacDonald and May Gurney.

Mott MacDonald Professional services Contractual partnership strategic partner. Input relationship with Norfolk to scheme appraisal, County Council design and contract administration.

May Gurney Works strategic partner. Contractual partnership Input to design through relationship with Norfolk ECI. Cost estimation, County Council construction planning, construction of scheme.

Breakdown of total funding

Funding source Postwick Park & Ride TOTAL Junction

CIF £19,000,000 £2,000,000 £21,000,000

Norwich Growth Point £3,489,672 £3,489,672

NCC £623,724 £623,724

TOTAL £19,623724 £5,489,672 £25,113,396

Interests in major assets to be acquired or enhanced under the project

Completion of the proposed scheme will further enhance the existing Park & Ride site

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Risks

The County Council recognises the importance of the project and the fact that some of the risks have potential to impact Norfolk County Council at a corporate level. Norfolk County Council procedures are followed to recognise projects that have such potential and monitor risks at Corporate and Departmental level. The risks managed at Departmental level are monitored on a monthly basis and scored as either: R - poor progress needs escalation, B - some progress needs some review, or G - good progress/ on schedule. If a risk is 'scored' as R then it needs to be escalated to the Corporate level. The allocation of risk, is based on the principle that risk is placed with the party best placed to manage or mitigate that risk should it transpire.

NCC has drawn up a detailed risk register for both components for the CIF project, which can be found in Appendix 4C. In the case of the Park & Ride scheme, our strategic partners, who will be responsible for design and delivery, have been fully involved in the preparation of the risk register, with responsibilities designated accordingly. For Postwick Junction, NCC has developed its own quantified risk register, but following appointment, the preferred contractor will become part of the team and work with NCC to update and maintain the quantified risk register. Decisions will then be made on the risk share mechanism between the contractor and NCC to ensure that the proposed allocation provides value for money to the Council.

Stakeholder Analysis

The County Council recognises the necessity for successful interaction with the wide range of stakeholders and the involvement of the surrounding community throughout the before and throughout project implementation. Section 4.6 of this document identifies various stakeholder interests, highlights consultation already undertaken and future engagement plans.

NATA Appraisal Summary Table

The NATA Appraisal Summary Table can be viewed in Appendix 3G.

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Integration Worksheet

Additional housing that is fully 1600 dependent on transport scheme

Previously Developed Land Currently in Total Derelict Vacant (PDL) use Hectares developed None None None None

Urban New Non-PDL1 Total Infill Extension Settlement Hectares developed* 64.3 64.3 None None

*This is gross ie includes roads and open space within the development

Dwelling Size** Total 3+ Bedroom 2 Bed 1 Bed Number of dwellings 1600 Number of "affordable" dwellings 640

**Not yet known

Value of other subsidies supporting None developments

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1 Scheme Description

1.1 Introduction

The Postwick Hub Scheme is key part of the overall Norwich Northern Distributor Road (NDR) project. In turn, the NDR is the The Postwick key piece of major infrastructure necessary to secure Hub Scheme implementation of the agreed Norwich Area Transportation forms part of Strategy (NATS). Implementation of NATS is an essential the wider strategy to component for the successful delivery of the significant growth develop the in jobs and housing planned for the Norwich Area in the period Norwich area to 2021 and beyond. and is endorsed by key players.

Although the Postwick Hub Scheme has been designed to overcome existing constraints that are inhibiting residential and employment growth in the area, the overall growth in the Norwich area also needs to be considered. When the current constraints in the Postwick area have been removed there will still be the issue of dealing with growth in trips resulting from 33,000 new dwellings and 35,000 new jobs that the Norwich area is expected to accommodate up to 2021, as well as general growth in trip making. The Norwich Area Transportation Strategy (NATS) in conjunction with the Joint Core Strategy (JCS) is designed to deal with this issue and a key element of NATS is the provision of a Northern Distributor Road (NDR). In addition to removing the constraints in the Postwick area, the improved A47 junction will provide a suitable starting point for this road. A Local Transport Plan/Regional Funding Allocation, Major Scheme Business Case was recently submitted for this road and is currently being assessed by the Department for Transport.

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The Greater Norwich Development Partnership (GNDP), made up of Norwich City Council, Norfolk County Council, Broadland District Council, South Norfolk Council and the Broads Authority, has been set up to meet the challenges of co-ordinating and delivering the planned growth in the Norwich Area. Together these local authorities are preparing the JCS.

The strategic significance of the Postwick Hub Scheme and the NDR is endorsed by all key partners including the Greater Norwich Development Partnership (GNDP), East of England Development Agency (EEDA) and East of England of Regional Assembly (EERA).

1.1 Background

1.1.1 Options considered

Work was undertaken by Norfolk County Council and Mott MacDonald during the period 2002-2004 to assess transportation interventions considered as part of the review of A Northern the NATS. The long list of interventions initially identified was Distributor distilled into a smaller number of strategy options combining the Road option most effective interventions with complementary measures, and was chosen to provide a key a strategic assessment of these options made following (as far element to as possible under the circumstances) Guidance on Multi Modal deliver the Studies (GOMMMS), and subsequently WebTAG, methodology. NATS objectives.

In total six strategy options were appraised. Three included an NDR, two focussed on public transport and one was based on encouraging modal shift. This work was summarised in the NATS Options Assessment Report (October 2004).

All Options were assessed against the NATS objectives. Consultations with Statutory Environmental bodies (SEBs) and further work on identifying probable environmental impacts was undertaken by the County Council.

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The preferred option chosen included an NDR, with a suite of complementary measures made possible by the freeing up of capacity on the existing road network. This option would help alleviate many of the problems and issues currently highlighted within the NATS area, in particular; congestion on the outer ring road; access to the airport; and accommodation of future housing requirements. It also provides a strategic transport link to north Norfolk via the east of Norwich.

As part of the demonstrating value for money for the Major Scheme Business Case for the NDR, based on the original NATS options, the following alternatives were assessed: NDRNDR was was assessedassessed • Next Best Option which would offer a lower cost alternative; againstagainst several several • Low Cost Option, which comprises a single carriageway and alternativesalternatives to to ensureensure it it utilises the existing infrastructure as far as possible; offeredoffered value value • Public Transport Alternative, bringing together all previous forfor money. money. work on public transport for Norwich in light of current developments in technology and legislation proposed in the Local Transport Bill in searching for an option that would offer a viable alternative to the road

1.2 Postwick Hub - Preferred Scheme

The preferred Postwick Hub Scheme comprises an improvement to the A47/A1042 trunk road junction together with a 500 space extension to the Postwick Park & Ride site. A plan of the new junction arrangement showing the location of the Park & Ride extension is shown in Fig 1.1 in Appendix 1 A. There are other elements to the overall Postwick Hub Scheme and these are described below. However, the bid for CIF2 funding is just for the junction improvement and the extension.

Junction Only the junction The junction layout is also shown on plan Fig 1.1 and was improvement developed as part of the detailed design for the Norwich and Park & Ride extension Northern Distributor Road. Alternative junction layouts were of the Postwick assessed using traffic modelling techniques and based on origin Hub Scheme and destination survey information from autumn 2006. The form the CIF2 bid. proposed layout is one of fifteen that were examined. This was found to be the only one which could satisfactorily cope with future traffic levels taking into account the planned growth.

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Park & Ride

The Postwick Park & Ride site lies to the south of the Postwick Junction and has 525 car parking spaces and is shown on Fig 1.1. It regularly reaches capacity by late morning, which means that currently people who might choose to use Park & Ride if spaces were available are probably adding to traffic on the rest of the network. In view of this there is no scope for the present site to accommodate additional trips from any planned growth in the east of Norwich.

A recent study of Park & Ride provision around Norwich considered the adequacy of existing sites and the need for expansion, either by provision of additional sites or expansion of increase parking provision at existing sites. One conclusion was that sites need one thousand car parking spaces to break even economically.

The 500 space extension to the existing Postwick Park & Ride forms part of a new site which may include other civic amenities. If these developments do not go ahead to the same timescales, the Park & Ride extension will be accessed via the existing site access. However, in the longer term it is envisaged that the Park & Ride extension will be accessed via a new dedicated roundabout.

In conjunction with the other development uses, the Park & Ride extension site will also provide pedestrian and cycle facilities along a green corridor which will link nearby villages to the Park & Ride and on to the new and existing employment areas nearby. The capital costs of developing these other aspects will be met by GNDP Growth Point funding.

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Other aspects

Other aspects of the overall Postwick Hub Scheme, although not part of the bid for capital funding are described below.

• ‘Pump prime’ the establishment of a community based sustainable travel group to co-ordinate and implement, over an initial 3 year period, workplace travel planning and personalised travel advice for the homes and business in the Postwick Growth Hub area.

• Feasibility study into the introduction of public transport priority measures at the two ‘key’ junctions along the radial route into the city centre. The first at the A1042 / A1242 Yarmouth Road / Pound Lane junction (currently mini- roundabout junction with significant congestion and delays to traffic in peak periods including Park & Ride services) and A1242 Foundry Bridge junction adjacent Norwich Rail Station (and bus interchange) that also experiences significant congestion and delays affecting all road users including the significant number of bus services that serve the Rail Station and the adjacent Riverside leisure, retail and housing area.

These sustainable transport initiatives are being pursued by the GNDP using growth point revenue funding.

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2 Strategic Case

2.1 Background information

2.1.1 Geography and demographics

The proposed Postwick Hub Scheme comprises an improvement to the A47/A1042 trunk road junction together with a 500 space extension to the Postwick Park & Ride site. It is located in the district of Broadland to the east of Norwich. Norwich is one of the largest The population of the Norwich Policy Area (NPA) is 230,000. and important However as a result of the growth it is required to urban areas in accommodate, as set out in the East of England Plan it is East England, with further expected to rise to 280,000 by 2025. expansion predicted. Norwich serves a large rural hinterland and exerts a powerful strategic economic and social and cultural influence over the surrounding market towns and villages and is one of the largest urban areas in the East of England. It is an important focus in the Eastern region for a range of services, housing, the administrative and operational headquarters of a number of large organisations. As well as a large employment centre, Norwich is also a major retail destination and is regarded as one of the top ten retail centres in the UK in terms of the quality and range of facilities. Norwich is a medieval city retaining many features of historic importance including a street pattern that is not particularly suited to motor vehicles.

Outside Norwich to the east and northeast are The Broads, a world renowned wetland area with National Park status, which uniquely for any city in Britain, extend into the heart of Norwich. To the west are the Brecks, while the North Norfolk coast is an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. These environmental resources of national and international importance add to the unique and special qualities of the wider Norwich area and its surroundings.

The Greater Norwich area is a national Growth Point and the East of England Plan projects that the area will grow by at least 33,000 dwellings and 35,000 jobs by 2021. The Greater Norwich Development Partnership (GNDP), made up of Norwich City Council, Norfolk County Council, Broadland District Council, South Norfolk Council and the Broads Authority, has been set up to meet the challenges of co-ordinating and delivering this growth.

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2.1.2 Existing travel patterns

The primary function of the A47 Norwich Southern Bypass is as a trunk road catering for long distance trips. However, it is also Postwick Junction well used as a distributor road for local traffic. In view of this provides there is a dominant movement through the Postwick junction access to/from bringing traffic off the bypass to employment and residential the A47, on the east of areas on the eastern fringe of Norwich. This is in addition to Norwich... commuting and shopping/leisure trips to Norwich from the east and Great Yarmouth, which includes trips going to the Postwick Park & Ride site. Conversely the junction also carries all the trips that are generated by the housing and employment areas in this part of Norwich and using it to access the trunk road to other parts of Norwich and beyond.

2.1.3 Existing highway network

The existing Postwick junction was built in 1994 as part of the A47 Norwich Southern Bypass and links the trunk road to the eastern side of Norwich. It gives direct access to Broadland Business Park, the Postwick Park & Ride site and the A1042 Yarmouth Road, which links through to the Norwich outer Ring … linking to a Business Park, Road to the west. Park & Ride site and the Yarmouth Road. The junction is a simple ‘dumb bell’ arrangement with slip roads on and off the trunk road leading to two roundabouts linked by a single carriageway bridge over the A47 trunk road. The northern roundabout, which has been improved already to cater for development, is connected to the A1042 Yarmouth Road towards Norwich and to Broadland Way, the business park road leading north. Both these roads are dual carriageways.

The southern roundabout gives access to the Postwick Park & Ride site to the south. The diverge slip road off the A47 from the east, is considerably longer than the other three slip roads and includes a section of single carriageway over much of its length to provide access to Postwick village and Brundall.

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2.1.4 Existing public transport provision

The majority of bus services in Norwich run on radial routes into the city centre and out to provide cross-city links. These offer good frequencies in the built up area. Most bus services operate during the day and evenings, with only one operating 24 hours a The Norwich day. This is on the route that links the Norfolk and Norwich bus service offer city University Hospital and the University of East Anglia to the centre and railway station via Norwich city centre. There is a new bus cross-city station in Norwich city centre, built as part of a £10m major links. Park & Ride schemes project that included improved public transport links between the are a key bus and railway stations. The main interchange points for aspect of the onward bus or pedestrian journeys in the city are on-street in public transport Castle Meadow, St Stephens Street and at Anglia Square, and system. off-street at the bus and railway stations.

Outside of the built up area there are services to the market towns but these run on much lower frequencies. A key aspect of public transport/parking provision for Norwich is Park & Ride. There are 6 Park & Ride sites around Norwich, providing almost 5,000 spaces and a bus service frequency of approximately every 8-10 minutes between 0700 and 1900 Monday to Saturday.

Specifically, in relation to the immediate vicinity of the scheme, there are 6 buses per hour from Norwich serving the Dussindale Park residential area during the daytime. These services are well used and two bus companies compete for these passengers. However, during evenings and Sundays the services are hourly and require financial support. Services from Norwich to Broadland Business Park are also run by two competing operators. Between them there are 6 buses per hour during the peak periods, dropping to 4 per hour at other times. There are no evening services to Broadland Business Park and no service to it from the rural areas outside of Norwich. In addition, the Postwick Park & Ride uses the contra flow bus service (outbound in the morning and inbound in the evening) to bring Norwich Union/Aviva employees from the city centre to their call centre on Broadland Business Park.

2.1.5 Transport problems

The Postwick junction is presently operating close to its capacity and at times this causes congestion and delay and queuing which can affect the operation of the A47 trunk road. Any further development in the area that impacts upon the junction will mean that it would be operating over capacity with increased levels of congestion and delay.

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The Highways Agency’s main concern is the capacity of the two Further demand on diverge slip roads and potential queuing onto the A47. At peak Postwick periods queues can form on these slip roads with present levels Junction will of traffic. With the west bound off slip, there is some capacity on exceed its current the single carriageway section to accommodate some queuing. capacity. However, any increase in flow onto the eastbound off slip road Queuing on resulting from further development, is likely to result in the the trunk road is likely during regular incidences of queuing onto the trunk road itself. busy periods. The Postwick Park & Ride in many ways is a victim of its own success. Patronage levels are such that it is often operating at or close to full capacity. There is also the allied issue of accessibility to Broadland Business Park for rural dwellers which is affecting recruitment and retention of staff. Parking is limited on the business park and an expansion of the Park & Ride would provide a facility for people who, because they do not have walking, cycling or public transport an option, need to drive. If there were extra spaces, they could leave their car at the Park & Ride site and walk, cycle or take a shuttle bus. The overall plan for the area includes enhancing the walking and cycling facilities between the Park & Ride site and the business park. These types of arrangement would be managed via Postwick Park workplace travel plans that the council is helping businesses to & Ride currently set up. Set criteria would need to be met to ensure that the Park operates at full & Ride expansion is not just a displaced car park for the capacity. business park that encourages more car travel. Providing additional spaces could The additional Park & Ride spaces created would also provide relieve city the opportunity for people on the eastern side of Norwich who centre traffic. are presently driving to Norwich and adding to general traffic levels, congestion and delay, as well as putting pressure on city centre car parks. The Norwich Area Transportation Strategy (NATS) has a policy to encourage long stay at Park & Rides and thus freeing up city centre car parks for short stay shoppers and visitors. So, by providing 500 additional spaces at Postwick Park & Ride, substantial numbers of commuter vehicles could be removed from Norwich city centre freeing up space for essential trips or reallocation to public transport, cycling and walking modes.

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The provision of tourist coach parking in Norwich city centre is a problem and it is the intention to provide dedicated coach parking bays at the expanded Park & Ride site. Facilities at the site will also be provided to encourage cycle and ride which is popular at some of the other Norwich Park & Rides. The option of park and cycle would also be possible, particularly bearing in mind the planned walking and cycling improvements on the routes leading to the business park.

2.1.6 Transport related problems

The Highways Agency has recognised these transport issues and is using its powers to protect the A47 trunk road from this problem. In view of this Phase 2 of Broadland Business Park cannot be developed as the HA would impose an “Article 14 Developing Direction of Refusal”. This is an important piece of employment Phase 2 of Broadland land that needs to be developed to help deliver the planned Business Park growth in housing and jobs in the Norwich area. A recent would result in employment study by Arup confirmed that Broadland Business the HA imposing an ‘Article 14 Park Phase 2 is an appropriate employment site and that further Direction of employment land is required which could be provided by a third Refusal’ if no phase of expansion. Such further expansion beyond the Phase improvements were made to 2 area would be possible with the proposed new junction layout Postwick as it creates access to a new area to the west of Broadland Junction. Way.

In addition to the “Article 14 Direction of Refusal” issue, another constraint that is inhibiting the development of Phase 2 of Broadland Business Park is the cost of the site access road. This road as shown in the Local Plan needs to extend northwards beyond the employment site to bypass a narrow railway overbridge on a 90 degree bend. The cost of this infrastructure currently exceeds the value in the employment land. However, if this Phase 2 employment land is provided in conjunction with 600 new houses to the north of Dussindale Park, there would be sufficient value to provide the link. Such a development, known as Brook Farm, is currently being None of the proposed by the developers of Broadland Business Park as proposed development shown in Fig 2.1 located in Appendix 2 A can proceed without The conclusion is that none of the proposed development in this improvements to Postwick area can proceed without a significant improvement to the junction. Postwick junction and there is insufficient value in these developments to provide the improvement.

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2.1.7 Future problems

Although the Postwick Hub Scheme has been designed to overcome existing constraints that are inhibiting residential and employment growth in the area, the overall growth in the Norwich area needs to be considered. When the current constraints in the Postwick area have been removed there will still be the issue of dealing with growth in trips resulting from The Postwick 33,000 new dwellings and 35,000 new jobs that the Norwich Hub also accommodates area is expected to accommodate up to 2021, as well as the wider general growth in trip making. The Norwich Area Transportation growth of Strategy (NATS) in conjunction with the Joint Core Strategy Norwich, including the (JCS) is designed to deal with this issue and a key element of Northern NATS is the provision of a Northern Distributor Road (NDR). In Distributor addition to removing the constraints in the Postwick area, the Road. improved A47 junction will provide a suitable starting point for this road. A Local Transport Plan/Regional Funding Allocation, Major Scheme Business Case was recently submitted for this road and is currently being assessed by the Department for Transport.

The Greater Norwich Development Partnership is currently preparing the Joint Core Strategy for the Norwich area and Postwick Hub NATS will deliver the transport element of this. The JCS seeks will contribute to accommodate the housing growth on sustainable brownfield to diverting sites but of necessity will need to use predominantly the more traffic flow away from accessible and sustainable greenfield locations. One key built up areas greenfield housing location which features in all the emerging of Norwich. options is the North East of Norwich which will provide at least 10,000 dwellings. Proposals to form an eco town at Rackheath will contribute to this. Despite enhanced public transport provision as part of the strategy for the area, there will be new car trips generated by this new development. This will add to the general underlying growth in trips, broadly in line with national trends, that we are seeing in the peripheral parts of the Norwich built up area. This is a particular issue for the northern parts of the built up area of Norwich and the NDR in conjunction with the Postwick Hub Scheme will enable long distance trips to access the trunk road network without needing to pass through the built up area and the centre of Norwich.

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In advance of the construction of the NDR, the Postwick Hub Scheme could enable some of these 10,000 dwellings to be Postwick Hub constructed around Salhouse Road to the north of the Brook could enable Farm housing proposals. The JCS consultation identifies 10,000 Salhouse Road as the potential route for a Bus Rapid Transit dwellings before system to the City Centre and it also requires safe and direct construction of cycle, pedestrian and orbital bus services that serve Broadland the NDR Business Park. These requirements suggest that land between Salhouse Road and Plumstead Road will provide important options for development and transport infrastructure.

There is also an aspiration in the existing Broadland Local Plan Additional dwellings for a link road from a housing allocation in Sprowston (north of could create a Salhouse Road) to Broadland Business Park. This link road coherent would go a long way to provide the infrastructure to fulfil the JCS transport network within requirement for orbital bus movement, cycling and walking. the local area. Taking the current proposals into account the only element of this link that will be missing is between Salhouse Road and Plumstead Road. This could be provided by housing development in this area.

In response to the development of the Joint Core Strategy much of the land in the North East Sector has been put forward for inclusion in a new sustainable community. These representations include almost all the land to the north-east of the Brook Farm proposal between Salhouse Road and Plumstead Road. The proposals indicate how the missing element of the link road could be provided. Although a large part of this area is subject to local environmental designations and may therefore contribute to strategic green infrastructure, up to around 40 hectares could have development potential. Consequently there is scope for over 1,000 dwellings in this area alone. The current Postwick Hub proposals would provide significant stimulus to this development potential and the crucial link to employment opportunities.

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For the growth in jobs, the JCS seeks to develop and expand The existing employment locations including the employment land improvements around the Postwick Hub Scheme. Overall, there is a fear that to the transport the take up of allocated employment land by existing and new network employers may not happen due to transport constraints. This created by fear has been expressed by the Shaping Norfolk’s Future Postwick Hub will attract (Transport Forum) which is the Sub-Regional Economic future Partnership for Norfolk and is business led. The Postwick Hub employers. Scheme seeks to remove these constraints on the eastern fringe of Norwich.

2.2 Scheme objectives

In view of this analysis, the specific objectives of the Postwick Hub Scheme are to:

• Improve the operation of this overcapacity trunk road junction • Remove a Highways Agency “Article 14 Direction of Refusal” for allocated employment development at Broadland Business Park • Release land to the north of Dussindale Park for 600 new houses • Unlocking growth for another 10,000 houses, • Provide additional jobs at Broadland Business Park and support the continued success of the Norwich economy • Co-locate housing and jobs to encourage sustainable commuting • Remove substantial numbers of car trips into Norwich city centre by providing 500 extra spaces at the Postwick Park & Ride

In relation to these objectives the scheme is likely to impact upon the following Local Transport Plan (LTP) targets and National Indicators.

• Traffic levels entering Norwich city centre (LTP6) • Resolution of declared AQMA’s in Norwich (LTP 8) • Road safety casualty reduction (NI 47 and 48) • Public transport patronage (NI 177) • Accessibility (NI 175) • Bus services running on time (NI 178)

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2.3 Scheme history and development

2.3.1 The Greater Norwich Development Partnership

2.3.2 Programme of Development 2008-11

The GNDP was invited to submit a Programme of Development (POD) in autumn 2007. This POD set out the rationale for The Postwick housing and economic growth and the key project areas for Hub Scheme which Department for Communities and Local Government was originally devised to (DCLG) funding is sought for the period 2008-11 to deliver the meet the infrastructure requirements to begin fulfilling the projected housing and housing and jobs growth for Greater Norwich. This was economic growth effectively a bid for government money, from a funding stream objectives of being made available to Growth Areas and Growth Points the POD. nationally.

It was within this POD that the Postwick Hub Scheme was first devised. The document stated:

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The project brings forward sustainable housing and employment growth on the eastern edge of Norwich by addressing and existing constraint at a ‘key’ Trunk Road junction, supported by an extended Park & Ride facility and community based Sustainable Travel Group. The project supports the current Local Plan’s second phase of Broadland Business Park and could, if confirmed through the Joint Core Strategy and site allocation process, open up significant growth opportunities that would deliver 2-3,000 jobs and 400 additional houses on land adjacent to this strategic employment site on the eastern edge of Norwich. Growth in the eastern sector of Greater Norwich is constrained by the capacity of existing transport infrastructure. If the constraints can be overcome then significant expansion of the existing housing and business parks on the eastern side of Norwich can be realised. The A47 (Trunk Road) Postwick Interchange is of significant importance to the development of the Greater Norwich area. It is an important transport node on the eastern edge of Norwich at the point where the main radial route to the city joins the Trunk Road network. It provides opportunities for car users to switch to buses for journeys to the City Centre, Rail and Bus Stations via the County Council’s Park & Ride facility. The Northern Distributor Road is also proposed to join the Trunk Road network at the Postwick Interchange.

2.3.3 The Norwich Area Transportation Strategy

The latest version of the Norwich Area Transportation Strategy (NATS) was agreed in 2004. This built on the successful elements of the previous strategy such as long stay parking restraint and the provision of Park & Ride. The process was overseen by a Member steering group drawn from the Norfolk County Council, Norwich City Council, Broadland District and South Norfolk Council and the adopted strategy was endorsed by all four authorities.

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2.3.4 Norwich Area Transportation Strategy – Key Elements

The transport strategy has been designed to help deliver the growth that will happen within the Norwich Area and address the problems, such as congestion. The strategy will ensure that Norwich develops as a sustainable urban community, with a transport system that meets its needs. The strategy promotes travel choice, recognising the need to maintain the economic health of the Norwich Area, and does not propose radical restrictions on vehicular access. It carries forward the previous NATS aims to policy of accommodating the growth in number of trips by provide the means other than the car. NATS will achieve this through necessary promotion and improvements of other modes, including public transport strategy to transport. enable the growth of A Northern Distributor Road (NDR) has been identified as an Norwich, of important element to enable growth within and around Norwich. which the NDR is a key This new road will be delivered in conjunction with traffic element. management measures in residential roads and minor rural roads around the north of Norwich, to lock in the benefits. Alongside this, improvements to public transport will be made focussing in particular on the core bus routes into the city centre.

The pedestrian dominated area will be extended within the city centre. Initially traffic management schemes will be implemented on a number of essential pedestrian routes, and in the longer term through traffic will be removed from the city centre. This is likely to be achievable only with further improvements to the Inner Ring Road and delivery of the NDR.

A Road Hierarchy will be identified. This will put priority where it is most needed, for example to pedestrians in the city centre and traffic on the main roads. Congestion will be tackled through improving efficiency of the road network and intensive implementation of soft measures.

Further expansion of Park & Ride will be considered, taking into account usage and further potential demand.

2.3.5 Postwick Hub and NATS

Both of the key elements of the Postwick Hub Scheme, the The Postwick improvement to the A47/A1042 trunk road junction and the 500 Hub Scheme contributes to space extension to the Postwick Park & Ride site, are in line the aim NATS with the NATS strategy.

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2.3.6 Taking NATS forward

The implementation of NATS will involve responding to new challenges as they emerge. In particular the development of the The JCS JCS for the Greater Norwich area with increased levels of considers the growth will need to be addressed. In view of this work is Postwick Hub currently underway to determine what particular schemes and Scheme to be essential. measures will be implemented on the ground. The issue of how to bring about a step change in public transport provision to cater for the additional housing and jobs growth will be key. What has become apparent from the JCS work is how important and indeed essential the Postwick Hub Scheme is in serving the currently envisaged levels of housing and jobs growth.

2.4 Strategic Fit

2.4.1 Integration worksheet

Based on the proposals set out by the developers of Broadland The Postwick Business Park (weblink to their public consultation Hub Scheme http://brookfarmthorpe.com/ ) and the rationale outlined in could enable provision of section 2.1.6, there are 600 dependent houses associated with 1,600 houses the Brook Farm development. In addition, ,a further 1,000 before houses could be provided on 40 Ha to the north of Salhouse construction of the NDR. Road. It is therefore assumed that a total of 1,600 houses could be directly unlocked by the Postwick Hub Scheme in advance of the construction of the NDR.

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2.4.2 Integration – Scheme-dependent housing Additional housing that is fully 1600 dependent on transport scheme

Previously Developed Land Currently in Total Derelict Vacant (PDL) use Hectares developed None None None None

Urban New Non-PDL1 Total Infill Extension Settlement Hectares developed* 64.3 64.3 None None

*This is gross ie includes roads and open space within the development

Dwelling Size** Total 3+ Bedroom 2 Bed 1 Bed Number of dwellings 1600 Number of "affordable" dwellings 640

**Not yet known

Value of other subsidies supporting None developments Evidence base for dependency: This is set out in section 2.1.6 of this document.

2.4.3 Alignment with Government, Regional and Local objectives

The objectives and outcomes of implementing the Postwick Hub Scheme, as part of the NATS strategy have been considered for The Postwick their alignment with Government, regional and local objectives. Hub Scheme meets local, For each strategy or initiative the goals and objectives are regional and shown down the side of a table and the Postwick Hub Scheme national objectives across the top. Where a strategic fit exists, text is objectives. provided to show the link. This has been carried out for the following strategies or initiatives and the results are shown in the Strategic Fit Tables.

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Towards a Sustainable Transport System Improve the Remove a Highways Release land to the To provide To co-locate housing Remove substantial operation of this Agency “Article 14 north of Dussindale additional jobs at and jobs to numbers of car trips overcapacity trunk Direction of Refusal” Park for 600 Broadland Business encourage into Norwich city Postwick Hub road junction for allocated identified new Park and support sustainable centre by providing objectives employment houses the continued commuting 500 extra spaces at development at success of the the Postwick Park & Broadland Business Norwich economy Ride Park TaSTS goals Competitivenes Will mean faster and Will enable economic Scheme will allow Will assist recruitment Will help free up s and easier access for development that will new businesses to as commuting costs A1042 and city centre productivity businesses at the benefit local and set up on allocated can be kept to a for essential trips Broadland Business national economy employment land minimum Park and St Andrews Business Park Climate Change Will locate new Should reduce Could remove homes adjacent to dependency on car significant vehicle new jobs and reduce commuting mileage from the the need to travel network Safety, security Reduced congestion Health benefits will Health benefits will and will mean less stress accrue to people who accrue to people who health for motorists and may walk or cycle to work walk or cycle to work improve air quality from the new homes from the new homes Quality of life More pleasant Will reduce Will provide local Will reduce commuting journeys for all commuting times and employment times and give people modes give people more opportunities more leisure time leisure time avoiding the need to travel Social equity Reduced congestion Over a third of the Will provide local Will provide local will benefits public new homes provided employment employment transport journeys as will be affordable opportunities opportunities avoiding well as car journeys avoiding the need to the need to travel travel

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Eddington Report Improve the Remove a Highways Release land to the To provide To co-locate Remove substantial operation of this Agency “Article 14 north of Dussindale additional jobs at housing and jobs to numbers of car trips overcapacity trunk Direction of Park for 600 Broadland Business encourage into Norwich city road junction Refusal” for identified new Park and support sustainable centre by providing Postwick Hub allocated houses the continued commuting 500 extra spaces at objectives employment success of the the Postwick Park & development at Norwich economy Ride Broadland Business Park Eddington Report Recommendations Improving the Will improve the Will improve the Will help free up performance of efficiency of the transport network by A1042 and city centre existing transport existing junction internalising some for essential trips networks trips associated with the growth so they don’t impact on the wider network Congested and Norwich is a growing Norwich is a growing Norwich is a growing Allows Norwich to growing city city needing to city needing to city needing to “grow” in a catchments; and the accommodate accommodate accommodate sustainable way and key interurban unprecedented levels unprecedented levels unprecedented levels protects access to the corridors and the of housing and jobs of housing growth of jobs growth wider trunk road key international growth network gateways

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Meet economic and Scheme is relatively Enables some of the Allows Norwich to Could remove environmental small and will tackle a economic goals of the “grow” in a significant vehicle goals. Congestion pinch point on the Norwich area to be sustainable way mileage from the and environmental network achieved network pricing. High returns, including smaller schemes tackling pinch points

Policy process The scheme was needs to be identified as part of rigorous and the “Growth Area” systematic ie process and was define the problem, featured in the consider range of Programme of options Development that and ensure was devised to spending is address development focused on best constraints policies.

Government to ensure the delivery system ready to meet challenges

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The regional economic strategy has been developed to take into account these five principles.

• Living within environmental limits – responding to the effects of climate change and ensuring environmental protection of our region represent a profound challenge for the economic development of the East of England .As set out in the Stern Review18 and the draft Climate Change Bill, the need to address this principle is embedded within the goals of the strategy, and summarised at the end of each goal chapter. • Ensuring a strong, healthy and just society – the region benefits from having different communities and cultures within its population. However, barriers exist which prevent some communities accessing all the opportunities that are available to them. This principle recognises that the region can only achieve its full potential when the strengths of all communities are realised. This principle is an integral part of achieving the vision of the regional economic strategy and issues related to it are summarised at the end of each goal chapter. • Achieving a sustainable economy – the regional economic strategy, by definition focuses on this principle, upon which the eight goals and sub-regional and sectoral sections are based. • Promoting good governance – the regional economic strategy has been developed with close reference to other regional strategies and complements the continuing development of the integrated regional strategy and the East of England Plan. The accompanying draft delivery framework also reflects the increasingly established relationships between the key players within the region and with major external stakeholders. The regional economic strategy will provide a sound basis for subsequent detailed regional action planning to be delivered by key agencies across the region. Further detail on this principle is addressed in the delivery framework of this strategy. • Using sound science responsibly – the principle of using a sound evidence base to inform policy and decision-making is clear throughout the strategy development process. The regional economic strategy is accompanied by a robust evidence base which assesses the viability of each of the priorities within the strategy.

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A large part of the role of the EEDA is working with other regional bodies to ensure we develop clear priorities for improving regional economic performance. This enables regional challenges to be addressed and opportunities to be fully exploited. A shared understanding helps those responsible for economic decision-making to work together more effectively with common goals and accepted priorities for regional development.

To ensure that these priorities for improving regional economic performance are shared, EEDA works with a range of partners and stakeholders to produce the regional economic strategy (often referred to as the RES).

The regional economic strategy sets out the East of England's economic objectives and how it can achieve them. The current version was published in December 2004. During the last year, we have been reviewing progress and developing a new strategy for the East of England for 2008-31.

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Regional Economic Strategy Improve the Remove a Highways Release land to the To provide To co-locate Remove substantial operation of this Agency “Article 14 north of Dussindale additional jobs at housing and jobs to numbers of car trips overcapacity trunk Direction of Park for 600 Broadland Business encourage into Norwich city road junction Refusal” for identified new Park and support sustainable centre by providing Postwick Hub allocated houses the continued commuting 500 extra spaces at objectives employment success of the the Postwick Park & development at Norwich economy Ride Broadland Business Park Regional Economic Strategy The ideas economy Improves the operation Improves the Minimises the need to Enables a more • Enterprise and efficiency of the performance of the travel for commuting efficient commuting • Innovation junction and trunk road region's businesses purposes which is an mode and provides • Digital economy and encourages inefficient use of better use of the enterprise which is resources existing transport • Resource important both for job network efficiency creation and productivity growth An adaptive Contributes to the Facilitates housing Provides infrastructure Can overcome the Contributes to the economy effectiveness and growth, including to support investment barrier to economic effectiveness and • Skills efficiency of the affordable housing in locations critical to participation by giving efficiency of the • Inclusion transport network which is essential to the further certain groups better transport network by • Transport support economic development of the access to offering PARK & RIDE growth region’s economic for the journey to • Places employment prosperity opportunities Norwich

The specialised A headline ambition Norwich and its economy for the RES is to hinterland and the • Spatial focus improve the urban sub-region is • Sectoral focus connectivity of Norwich an ‘engine of growth’ to key national, whose performance regional and local will increasingly drive markets through regional economic improved transport growth. infrastructure 2-19

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Improve the Remove a Highways Release land to the To provide To co-locate Remove substantial operation of this Agency “Article 14 north of Dussindale additional jobs at housing and jobs to numbers of car trips overcapacity trunk Direction of Park for 600 Broadland Business encourage into Norwich city road junction Refusal” for identified new Park and support sustainable centre by providing Postwick Hub allocated houses the continued commuting 500 extra spaces at objectives employment success of the the Postwick Park & development at Norwich economy Ride Broadland Business Park

The open economy • International presence • Regional presence

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EERA Regional Spatial Strategy

The East of England Plan or 'RSS', which was published in May 2008, sets out the regional strategy for planning and development in the East of England to the year 2021. It covers economic development, housing, the environment, transport, waste management, culture, sport and recreation, mineral extraction and more.

The RSS has a key role in contributing to the sustainable development of the region. It sets out policies which address the needs of the region and key sub-regions. These policies provide a development framework for the next 15 to 20 years that will influence the quality of life, the character of places and how they function, and informs other strategies and plans. A major feature of RSS is that it identifies the significant investment that will be needed in social, environmental, economic and transport facilities ('infrastructure') if it is to achieve its desired results. That investment will come from a variety of sources, including central and local government funding and private developer funding.

A key factor in the success of the NDR is to demonstrate how the scheme contributes to both local and regional objectives. This includes not only transport objectives, but also wider environmental and economic objectives

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The East of England Plan - Regional Spatial Strategy /Regional Transport Strategy (RSS/RTS) Improve the Remove a Highways Release land to the To provide To co-locate Remove substantial operation of this Agency “Article 14 north of Dussindale additional jobs at housing and jobs to numbers of car trips overcapacity trunk Direction of Park for 600 Broadland Business encourage into Norwich city road junction Refusal” for identified new Park and support sustainable centre by providing Postwick Hub allocated houses the continued commuting 500 extra spaces at objectives employment success of the the Postwick Park & development at Norwich economy Ride Broadland Business Park East of England Plan Objectives To reduce the Will provide housing in a Could encourage a Will enable more region’s impact on, low flood risk area reduced demand for commuting and leisure and exposure to, commuting trips by trips to be made by the effects of car PARK & RIDE climate change… To address Housing Provides 600 new Shortages in the houses on an urban region by: extension site To realise the Provides additional Better access to jobs economic potential jobs to help realise the means that people can of the region and its growth ambitions of realise or improve their people the East of England economic potential Plan To improve the A more efficient Possibility of reduced Provides greater quality of life for the junction will give rise to commuting gives rise choices in access to people of the region time savings for those to more leisure time Norwich who travel through the junction and along the trunk road To improve and Will encourage Will encourage conserve the sustainable forms of sustainable forms of region’s travel travel environment

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Greater Norwich Development Partnership - Joint Core Strategy Improve the Remove a Highways Release land to the To provide To co-locate Remove substantial operation of this Agency “Article 14 north of Dussindale additional jobs at housing and jobs to numbers of car trips overcapacity trunk Direction of Park for 600 Broadland Business encourage into Norwich city road junction Refusal” for identified new Park and support sustainable centre by providing Postwick Hub allocated houses the continued commuting 500 extra spaces at objectives employment success of the the Postwick Park & development at Norwich economy Ride Broadland Business Park JCS Spatial objectives To involve as many people as possible in new planning policy To be a place where people feel safe in their communities To encourage the Could encourage Could encourage more development of walking and cycling Cycle and Ride and healthy and active between homes and perhaps Park and lifestyles jobs Cycle to the new employment opportunities To allocate enough Enables allocated Enables the provision of land for housing, employment land to some 240 affordable and affordable be developed and houses housing, in the most provided additional sustainable employment land settlements To promote It is likely that the economic growth additional employment and diversity and land will offer a diverse provide a wide range of employment range of local jobs opportunities

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within Broadland, Norwich and South Norfolk for existing and future residents To make sure Better walking cycling It is likely that the The additional Park & people have ready and PT links should additional employment Ride capacity will access to services make getting to existing land will offer a range improve access to services easier, of new services services in Norwich especially for those without access to the private car. To allow people to develop to their full potential by providing educational facilities to support the needs of a growing population. To protect, manage The additional Park & and enhance the Ride capacity could natural, built and reduce trips to Norwich historic by car and so help to environment, protect its built and including key historic environment landscapes, natural resources and areas of natural habitat or nature conservation value. To minimise the Will provide housing in a The additional Park & contributors to low flood risk area Ride capacity could climate change and reduce trips to Norwich address its impact. by car and so reduce CO2 emissions To enhance Scheme provides Scheme provides Scheme provides infrastructure infrastructure to infrastructure to infrastructure to enable provision to meet facilitate essential facilitate essential additional jobs growth the needs of housing and jobs housing growth within the NPA 2-24

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existing and future growth populations. To reduce the need Will encourage to travel. sustainable walking and cycling trips between homes and jobs To positively protect and enhance Norwich’s individual character and unique cultural infrastructure.

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Norwich Area Transportation Strategy (NATS) Improve the Remove a Highways Release land to the To provide To co-locate Remove substantial operation of this Agency “Article 14 north of Dussindale additional jobs at housing and jobs to numbers of car trips overcapacity trunk Direction of Park for 600 Broadland Business encourage into Norwich city road junction Refusal” for identified new Park and support sustainable centre by providing Postwick Hub allocated houses the continued commuting 500 extra spaces at objectives employment success of the the Postwick Park & development at Norwich economy Ride Broadland Business Park NATS Themes Accessibility Provides sustainable Provides more Park & access to jobs and Ride opportunities facilities for residents and reduces traffic on of new housing in the A1042 to benefit area essential trips

Congestion Minimises congestion Likely to remove car and delays for all trips from A1042 as

modes of transport by the switch to PARK & improving the RIDE efficiency of the transport network Environmment and Encourages walking Could remove pollution and cycling between significant vehicle new housing and new mileage from the

jobs network Safety Maximises safety and security for everyone.

Minimises the number

and severity of road traffic accidents

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Economic vitality Scheme provides Scheme provides Scheme provides infrastructure to infrastructure to infrastructure to facilitate essential facilitate essential facilitate essential housing and jobs housing and jobs housing and jobs growth growth growth

Liveability and Provides 240 Reduces social Maximises transport community affordable houses exclusion through choice for all

transport solutions travellers by providing

and promotes equal additional PARK & access to jobs, goods RIDE and services

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Norfolk Local Transport Plan (LTP) Improve the Remove a Highways Release land to the To provide To co-locate Remove substantial operation of this Agency “Article 14 north of Dussindale additional jobs at housing and jobs to numbers of car trips overcapacity trunk Direction of Park for 600 Broadland Business encourage into Norwich city road junction Refusal” for identified new Park and support sustainable centre by providing Postwick Hub allocated houses the continued commuting 500 extra spaces at objectives employment success of the the Postwick Park & development at Norwich economy Ride Broadland Business Park LTP Strategic Aims Deliver sustainable Scheme provides New housing is as an Additional jobs are Trips associated with Trips to Norwich from growth infrastructure to urban extension provided in the most housing and jobs can new housing can facilitate essential and sustainable location be made by choose PARK & RIDE sustainable housing sustainable modes and jobs growth Improve Improves access to Improves strategic accessibility key services, facilities accessibility into and opportunities Norfolk Reduce congestion Reduces the number and severity of congestion incidents Improves journey time reliability Protect and Encourages a modal Could remove enhance the shift significant vehicle environment mileage from the network especially on the A1042 Improve road safety Should minimise the number and severity of road accidents

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Norfolk Ambition – The Community Strategy for Norfolk 2003- 2023 Improve the Remove a Highways Release land to the To provide To co-locate Remove substantial operation of this Agency “Article 14 north of Dussindale additional jobs at housing and jobs to numbers of car trips overcapacity trunk Direction of Park for 600 Broadland Business encourage into Norwich city road junction Refusal” for identified new Park and support sustainable centre by providing Postwick Hub allocated houses the continued commuting 500 extra spaces at objectives employment success of the the Postwick Park & development at Norwich economy Ride Broadland Business Park Norfolk Ambition Key Themes 1 Inclusive and Provides jobs and Provides better Provides better diverse services adjacent to access to access, especially by eachother employment sustainable modes, to opportunities all city centre activities 2 Healthy and well Helps people make Improves the local healthier lifestyle environment where choices by providing traffic is removed sustainable transport alternatives 3 Safe Improves the local environment where road safety is improved 4 Knowledgeable A diverse range of and skilled uses are proposed on the employment land 5 Active and Provides accessible Provides accessible engaged jobs jobs particularly for those in the new housing

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6 Environmentally Encourages responsible sustainable transport choices in the Norwich area 7 Creative 8 Economically Allows new thriving businesses to establish and prosper by removing blockages to economic development 9 Accessible and Provides 240 Helps to provide well-housed affordable new homes better employment opportunities for residents of the new homes

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• Department for Transport - Towards a Sustainable Transport System (October 2007) • Department for Transport - The Eddington Transport Study Report (December 2006) • East of England Development Agency - Regional Economic Strategy for the East of England 2008-2031 • Government Office for the East of England - East of England Plan - The Revision to the Regional Spatial Strategy for the East of England (May 2008) • Greater Norwich Development Partnership – Draft Joint Core Strategy • Norfolk County Council – Norwich Area Transportation Strategy • Norfolk County Council Local Transport Plan 2006-11 March 2006) • Norfolk County Strategic Partnership – Norfolk Ambition - sustainable community strategy for Norfolk 2003-2023 (March 2008)

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3 Value for Money Case

3.1 Introduction

The Value for Money Case presents the economic evaluation of the Postwick Hub Scheme. The evaluation has been carried out in accordance with guidance issued by the Department for Transport (DfT) as follows:

• Community Infrastructure Fund: Round 2 Full Business Case Guidance

The evaluation is • Transport Analysis Guidance (WebTAG) in accordance with CIF and The assessment was carried out using the DfT’s Transport WebTAG Guidance. Users Benefit Appraisal Software TUBA (v1.7) using vehicle/passenger trips, trip distance and trip time matrices from the SATURN highway model. The model was developed for the Norwich Area Transport Study (NATS) and has recently been updated as part of the appraisal of the Norwich Northern Distributor Road (NDR) scheme.

This section of the MSBC also presents the wider appraisal of the proposed scheme against the DfT’s five key objectives (Environment, Safety, Economy, Accessibility and Integration) in the form of an Appraisal Summary Table.

3.2 Capital Costs

Capital costs for construction and land were estimated based on the outline design and local rates. Costs are assumed to be incurred over a two year period from 2009/10 to 2010/11

The rates used in the cost assessment are for the third quarter Costs were based on local rates of 2007; an annual inflation factor of 4.5% is used to take these over a two year up to the year of expenditure. This factor reflects a general period with an inflation factor of 2.5% and an additional 2% to reflect higher inflation factor of 4.5%. rates of construction inflation. Preparatory costs for the Postwick CIF scheme are assumed to be funded from elsewhere (some £500k is to be sourced from Growth Point funding). Thus the CIF bid does not include any bid for reimbursement of preparatory costs. In addition, Optimism Bias, which reflects uncertainty in scheme cost estimates and is applied at a rate of 25% to the costs input to the economic appraisal (see Section 3.4.4) is being claimed as part of the funding bid but is shown in the table as part of the overall scheme cost estimate. 3-1 Value for Money Case

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Risk registers for the Postwick Hub Scheme have been prepared. This clearly sets out potential obstacles, their likelihood of occurrence, the severity of impact and the measures that will be put in place to manage, minimise or mitigate their realisation. It accords with the County Council’s corporate guidelines and designates responsible owners for each identified risk. The risk registers can be found in Appendix 4C.

The estimated outturn scheme cost profile for the scheme is set out in Table 3.1, broken down in line with guidance in WebTAG Unit 3.5.9 (September 2006).

Table 3.1: Summary of Outturn Capital Costs

Item 2009/10 2010/11 Total Construction 2007 Cost Estimate £4,406,466 £10,281,755 £14,688,221 Inflation (4.5%) £405,505 £1,196,027 £1,601,532 Total (1) £4,811,971 £11,477,782 £16,289,753 Land Total (2) £440,000 £0 £440,000 Risk Mitigation 2007 Cost Estimate £782,835 £1,826,614 £2,609,449 Inflation (4.5%) £72,040 £212,481 £284,522 Total (1) £854,875 £2,039,096 £2,893,971 Total Outturn Cost for CIF Funding £6,106,846 £13,516,878 £19,623,724 (4) (1+2+3) Additional costs not covered by CIF Bid: Preparation and Supervision (funded from Growth Point) £500,000 Optimism Bias Allowance at 25% £4,671,394 Total Outturn Scheme Cost £24,795,118

3-2 Value for Money Case

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3.3 Operating Costs

3.3.1 Maintenance Costs

Annual maintenance costs for the Postwick Hub are presented in Table 3.2. It is envisaged that only the annual routine Annual maintenance will be required during the 60-year operational maintenance costs were period of the economic appraisal, and that therefore no estimated to additional refurbishment or rebuild costs would be incurred. be c. £28k Table 3.2: Annual Maintenance Costs

Cost Element Unit Cost No. Units Total Cost

Highways Dual £4,133/km 0.8 km £3,224

Single £1,800/km 1.4 km £2,430

Landscaping £0.11/sqm 10,592 sqm £1,130

Street Lighting Energy £60.02 122 £7,322

Columns £30.00 122 £3,660

Structures Bridge over A47 £13.70/sqm 747.5 sqm £10,241

Total £28,007

All costs are in 3 rd Quarter 2007 prices

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3.4 Cost Benefit Analysis

This section sets out the methodology used in the economic cost benefit analysis of the scheme.

3.4.1 Modelling

Appendix 3A summarises the approach to the development of the NATS model upon which the assessment of the Postwick Hub Scheme is based. The modelling provides the necessary inputs to the user benefit and is documented in detail in a series of technical reports which are referenced in the text.

Issues specific to the modelling and appraisal of the Postwick Hub Scheme using the NATS model are:

• Modelling of Park & Ride – 500 additional spaces were coded into the Saturn model, as per the coding of the existing 525 spaces. Note that whilst this is modelled, it may not necessarily result in an increase in use (this being dependent on relative cost of bus vs car on the route). Accordingly, the level of impact of Park & Ride in the model is dependent not only on the additional availability of spaces, but also on the level of bus service provision from the Park & Ride site and on the relative car journey times between the Park & Ride site and the city centre in the Do Minimum and Do Something scenarios.

• Scheme Dependent Demand – Appendix 3A details the assumptions regarding additional housing demand incorporated into the forecast year models. In the Fixed Land Use scenario, the scheme dependent housing, as part of the overall additional housing assumed in the forecast years, was distributed uniformly across TEMPRO areas. For the Dependent Demand scenario, more specific allocation of the scheme dependent housing was made to the model zones to which this housing applied.

3.4.2 Scenarios Assessed

In accordance with CIF2 guidance the following scenarios have been modelled:

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• Do Minimum – the scenario in which the Postwick Hub Scheme and its dependent developments are not built. The Do Minimum contains committed schemes and schemes in the County Council's second Local Transport Plan (LTP2), and measures originally identified for further investigation in the development of NATS and progressed to sufficient detail to enable coding into the highway or public transport model. Further details of the Do Minimum schemes input to the model can be found in Appendix 3A. Four scenarios were assessed in • NDR Without Postwick – a scenario in which the Northern accordance with CIF 2 guidance: Distributor Road (NDR) is connected to the existing A47 Postwick junction within the existing layout. • Fixed Land Use Scenario – NDR plus the Postwick Hub Scheme, but without any dependent development trips. This involves updating the network model but without changing the Do Minimum matrices.

• Dependent Demand Scenario – adding the scheme- dependent development demand to the Fixed Land Use Scenario, as described in Section 3.4.1. This scenario assesses the impact that the scheme dependent demand has on users of the improved transport network.

As part of the larger NDR scheme the modelling of scenarios has been designed to demonstrate the incremental impact of the Postwick improvements on the NDR scheme.

The cost benefit analysis was carried out using the DfT’s Transport Users Benefit Appraisal Software TUBA (v1.7) using vehicle/passenger trips, trip distance and trip time matrices from the SATURN highway model.

At this stage of the analysis the impacts on public transport have not been assessed using TUBA. As the public transport leg of the PARK & RIDE trip is represented in the highway model the impacts of the expansion of the PARK & RIDE facility is fully represented within the Saturn highway model. There is no anticipated change in levels of service for the Park & Ride.

Evidence from the assessment of the economic impact of the NDR scheme suggests the inclusion of public transport benefits from TUBA has a limited impact o the overall economic appraisal. In this instance, the benefit cost ratio with PT benefits was 2.71 and was 2.62 without. Therefore it is considered that at this stage, an economic appraisal based on highway model outputs alone provides a sufficiently robust indication of the overall economic case for the Postwick Hub Scheme.

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3.4.3 TUBA Inputs and Assumptions

TUBA was run for the three periods assessed, namely AM peak, Interpeak and PM peak time periods. The following procedure was used to run the TUBA model:

The cost benefit • Review standard economic parameter set; analysis was carried out using the DfT’s • Prepare annualisation factors (see Section 3.4.5); Transport Users Benefit Appraisal • Define TUBA User Classes (see Section 3.4.6); Software TUBA (v1.7) • Define run parameters; • Prepare matrices for input to TUBA; • Run TUBA; and • Check output. TUBA contains a default set of economic parameters. These were verified against the latest WebTAG guidance.

3.4.4 Costs and Optimism Bias

The costs input to TUBA comprise the Base Year capital costs detailed in Section 3.2 less the General Inflation element. Optimism Bias uplift is applied to these costs, and the revised cost is then input to TUBA in accordance with the expenditure profiles shown in Table 3.1. Optimism Bias is also applied to Operating Costs.

In accordance with the Green Book Guidance, the base level of An optimism bias uplift of Optimism Bias during the construction stage was set initially at 25%, was 44%, i.e. the level for a standard construction contract. applied to the However, the level of Optimism Bias is based on a set of Base Year capital costs. contributory factors from the robustness of the Business Case through to the lack of appreciation of the cost of risk. Norfolk County Council have analysed the contributory factors and the work they have done in developing the project to date as well as the mitigation factors and consider appropriate to reduce the level of Optimism Bias to 25% applied to the Quantified Cost Estimate.

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3.4.5 Annualisation Factors

In TUBA there is a distinction between time periods and time slices. Time periods have standard definitions supplied in the TUBA economic file, whereas the assignment model uses a separately defined time slice to represent the time period for assignment purposes. Thus the annualisation factor used has been based on the relationship between the demand in the modelled time slices and that of the non-modelled part of the TUBA time periods. This is detailed in Table 3.3.

Table 3.3: Annualisation Factors

Period TUBA Time Model Time Slice Annualisation Period Factor

AM Peak 0700-1000 0800-0900 253

Interpeak 1000-1600 1100-1200* 1518

PM Peak 1600-1900 1700-1800* 506

Off-Peak 1900-0700 Not modelled n/a

Weekend All day (Sat/Sun) Not modelled n/a

*one hour representing an average of the time period

Furthermore the modelled periods apply to all working days in the year and hence all the matrices (with the exception of the Saturday and Sunday factors) were also annualised using a factor of 253. Saturdays and Sundays had a factor of 52 applied to represent the number of weekends in a year. Off- peak, other times during the weekends except those specified above, the first hour of the AM peak period (07:00-08:00) and the last hour of the PM peak period (18:00-19:00) were not considered for any of the analyses.

3.4.6 Definition of User Classes

The definition of user classes is a combination of:

• Mode; • Vehicle type/submode; • Purpose; and 3-7 Value for Money Case

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• Person type. These categories serve two purposes. Firstly, they enable the TUBA cost/benefit inputs and outputs to be disaggregated by category. Secondly, some of the economic parameters vary by category; for example, value of time depends on person type, vehicle type and purpose.

Trips in the highway model have been divided into eight segments. Trips have been divided into two vehicle types, namely light vehicles (comprising cars and light goods vehicles (LGVs)) and heavy vehicles (HGVs). The light vehicles have been further divided by trip purpose and by income band. Three trip purposes have been used, namely Commuting, Employer’s Business and Other trips. Three income bands have also been used, annual household incomes less than £17,500, incomes between £17,500 and £35,000, and finally incomes over £35,000. For the Employer’s Business purpose no income segmentation has been carried out. The final eight segments form the user classes input to TUBA and are listed in Table 3.4.

Table 3.4: TUBA User Class Definition

Vehicle Type Trip Purpose Income Band User Class

< £17,500 1

Commuting £17,500 to £35,000 2

> £35,000 3

Cars and LGVs Employer’s Business All 4

< £17,500 5

Other £17,500 to £35,000 6

> £35,000 7

HGVs All All 8

3.4.7 Other Inputs to the Cost Benefit Analysis

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Some elements of the cost benefit appraisal (operating costs and delay costs) were not included in the TUBA assessment and have been assessed separately. Of these, operating costs were detailed in Section 3.3. The following section discusses delay costs, which are those experienced by users of the network that are related to the planned construction and maintenance of the scheme infrastructure.

(i) Disruption During Construction

The design process for the Postwick Hub Scheme takes account of the issues related to construction, balancing the need to maintain sufficient capacity through the A47 junction with planned closure periods, for example when constructing overbridges or connecting new sections of road infrastructure to the existing highway. A detailed Construction Management Plan will be produced in conjunction with the appointed contractor so as to minimise disruption during construction. At this stage of the appraisal the economic cost of disruption has not been estimated.

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(ii) Maintenance Delay Costs

The impact of The new highway infrastructure is designed to 40 years design the scheme life, and routine maintenance would be planned to minimise on disruption to traffic flows. Within this period there will be at least construction two life cycle interventions to replace the friction course. This is and maintenance likely to cause some level of disruption, although the economic delays is cost of this will be significantly discounted depending on when in likely to be the life cycle these occur. No detailed estimation of these costs neutral. has been undertaken at this stage.

3.4.8 Cost Benefit Analysis Results

A standard technique used by the Department for Transport for comparing complementary transport projects in economic terms is incremental analysis. Options are ranked in order of increasing cost. The increase in cost from one option to the The incremental BCR shows that next is then compared with the resulting increase in benefits: the additional change in benefit is divided by change in cost to give an benefits of incremental Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR). If the incremental BCR is Postwick Hub 1 or greater, then the benefits of the next option equal or significantly outweigh the outweigh the additional cost. This approach has been taken additional costs using the NDR Without Postwick scenario as the revised baseline.

A summary of the key economic evaluation indicators is provided in Table 3.5. This shows the individual evaluation for each scheme and the incremental analysis for Postwick, with and without the dependent demand.

Table 3.5: Summary of Economic Cost Benefit Analysis

Scenario PVC PVB NPV BCR (£m) (£m) (£m)

NDR Without Postwick 84.4 134.1 4.7 1.6

Postwick with Fixed Land Use 99.3 260.1 160.8 2.6

- Incremental Analysis 14.9 134.1 111.1 8.5

Postwick with Dependent Demand 95.8 238.9 143.1 2.5

- Incremental Analysis 11.4 104.8 93.4 9.2

Note: Values are in £m in 2002 prices, discounted to 2002

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The table shows that:

• Without the Postwick Hub improvements, the NDR scheme achieves an economic cost benefit ratio (BCR) of 1.6, which marginally qualifies as good value for money under DfT criteria; • Adding the Postwick Hub Scheme, under the Fixed Land Use scenario the BCR rises to 2.7, clearly demonstrating the significant incremental benefit that the Postwick improvements bring to the NDR; • With the Dependent Demand included, the BCR is reduced to 2.5, which reflects the additional traffic generated by the dependent housing. The overall impact of this additional demand is small – although user benefits are reduced, this is in part offset by additional indirect tax revenues to government. • Incremental analysis shows a better incremental benefit for the Dependent Demand scenario, because although both costs and benefits are lower than for the Fixed Demand scenario, the incremental BCR comes out higher. The incremental analysis demonstrates that adding the Postwick Hub Scheme to the NDR unlocks a significant amount of the benefits of the NDR that would not be realised were to the NDR linked to the existing A47 junction conFiguration. These benefits significantly outweigh the small additional cost of delivering the Postwick Hub Scheme. Overall the Postwick Hub Scheme increases the economic BCR of the NDR scheme by 1.0 with fixed demand, and by 0.9 with the dependent demand.

Note that this analysis reflects only the economic costs and benefits. There are other quantified benefits under other NATA sub-objectives which contribute to the overall BCR for the scheme. These are detailed in the following section.

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3.5 New Approach to Appraisal Assessment

At present the analysis has been undertaken on an additional 600 properties primarly becase the locations of these are more precisely known, however it has subsequently been recognised than an additional 1000 will also be dependent. This section presents the appraisal of the Postwick Hub Scheme against the Government’s five key transport objectives within the New Approach to Appraisal (NATA), and as summarised in the Appraisal Summary Table (AST), which is presented in Appendix 3G.

Two levels of assessment are described in WebTAG: a simplified level for initial broad strategies involving various route options, and a more detailed methodology for plans. At plan level it is anticipated that a spatially detailed transport model is The scheme was available. The Postwick Hub Scheme has been assessed at assessed in accordance with plan level. The NATA appraisal presented in this section is the New based on the Dependent Demand scenario. Approach to Appraisal (NATA), The CIF guidance requires additional analysis under the at plan level. Integration objective, in relation to scheme dependent development, showing the nature and composition of the dependent housing, and assessing the impact of dependent demand on users of the improved transport network. This information includes the modelling of additional demand as presented in Section 3.4.8

Where detailed information is provided either in other Sections of the Major Scheme Business Case, or in other supporting documentation, this is indicated within the text.

Summary tables are provided throughout this section for most sub-objectives. For ease of presentation a seven-point scale is used in some tables to represent the impacts as follows:

Large Moderate Slight Neutral Slight Moderate Large Beneficial Beneficial Beneficial Adverse Adverse Adverse

+++ ++ + o ------

3.5.1 Environment

Detailed worksheets for the assessment of the Environment objective are included in Appendix 3B. The following sections summarise the methodologies involved, and key issues within each of the sub-objectives.

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(i) Noise

Tag Unit 3.9.1 states that “ if the change in traffic brought about by a proposal is less the 20% (for a decrease in traffic) or 25% (for an increase in traffic), traffic noise can usually be scoped out. Where traffic noise changes by more than this amount on any part of the network, the change in noise may be noticeable and should be quantified.” This change of -20%/+25%

There is an corresponds to a change of +/-1dB . overall improvement in Tag Unit 3.3.2 states “for freely flowing traffic, a difference of noise levels. about 3dB in noise level is required before there is a statistically significant change in the average assessment of nuisance. The assessment of nuisance however could still be affected even if there is only a 1dB change in the noise level if the change is associated with changes in the view of traffic, or if the change occurs suddenly. When options of this nature are being appraised, particularly strategies, the analyst will need to exercise judgement about whether the impact on noise should be ignored.”

In order to undertake both monetary evaluation and annoyance, calculations of L Aeq 18hour are required for all properties in opening year and design year with and without scheme. A spreadsheet is provided with the methodology of Do Minimum (DM) vs. Do Scheme (DS) for opening and design years, and calculation results for each property are entered into the appropriate cell. DM and DS values are divided into 3dB bands. The spreadsheet provided also relates noise changes to monetary changes and sums the results.

Calculation methodology is based on the Department of Transport memorandum Calculation of Road Traffic Noise 1988 (CRTN), and the ‘annoyance with noise’ relationship is based on the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges Vol 11 Section 3 Part 7 steady state relationship between noise level and percentage of people bothered very much or quite a lot by noise.

The traffic prediction model covers a large number of links across Norwich and the surrounding area, although the study area would only encompass those links where a change of 1dB would be predicted to occur. A comparison of ‘before’ and ‘after’ flows on each link indicated that the study area would extend northwards as far as Thorpe End.

Clearly a strict interpretation of the methodology for plans would be impractical, owing to the spatial extent of the study area and that the potential number of individual calculations would become prohibitive.

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Instead some assumptions were made. The procedure was as follows:

• The basic noise level, and change in basic noise levels was calculated for each link using CRTN in order to establish where changes of 1dB would be likely to occur across the network.

• A house count was made using Ordnance Survey Address- Point data adjacent to each link within distance bands of 0- 20m, 20-50m, 50-100m, 100-150m, 150-200, 200-250m, 250-300m.

• Basic noise levels were adjusted using CRTN to an average distance within each distance band e.g between 200-250m it was assumed all houses were located at 225m.

• Properties and noise levels were summed for each scenario and entered into the WebTag worksheet accordingly.

From the results are shown on the appraisal spreadsheet, it can be seen that while there is a slight overall benefit in net annoyance change (-8) the net present value is £194,469.00. The magnitude of change in annoyance is due to traffic increases along Green Lane being offset by traffic decreases along Pound Lane, and that in the immediate vicinity of the proposals there are very few dwellings.

The results are summarised in Table 3.6. This shows the incremental impact of the Postwick Hub Scheme on noise.

Table 3.6: Summary of Noise Impacts

Statistic With Scheme Estimated Population Annoyed - Do Minimum 52.8 - Do Something 44.4 Net Noise Annoyance Change in Year 15 -8 NPV of Noise of Proposal £0.194m

(ii) Local Air Quality

The WebTAG methodology was used to assess the local air quality impacts of the Scheme to assess the overall impact on local air quality across Postwick Junction.

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A comprehensive traffic model was developed for this Scheme. For the air quality assessment, roads within the traffic model study area were divided into a series of links with each link modelled with its own vehicle flow and vehicle split (i.e. light duty vehicles, heavy duty vehicles).

The detailed traffic model was used to estimate the traffic flows for the scheme, which are compared to the Do Minimum. The impact of the scheme depends on the traffic flows as well as the number of receptors affected. The scheme was assessed for the assumed opening year (2012) and the design year (2027).

For the purposes of this assessment, an Addresspoint database was used which calculates the number of properties within the various boundaries as defined by the WebTAG methodology (see below). This was then used to calculate the number of properties which experience changes in air quality (both positive and negative) between the Do Minimum and Do Something scenarios.

The outline methodology for the quantitative assessment can be summarised as:

• Counting of receptors sensitive to air quality within the vicinity of the affected route, by distance band (at 50m increments up to 200m distance) using GIS tools;

• Collation of baseline air quality data including background data for the entire area based on published data;

• Calculation of road traffic emissions using the DMRB spreadsheet v1.03c;

• Quantitative assessment of the change in people’s exposure to PM 10 and NO 2 and assessment of the number of properties likely to experience improvement or deterioration in air quality;

• For each year considered, calculation of roadside PM 10 and NO 2 concentrations with the Do Minimum and Do- Something scenarios using the DMRB spreadsheet. Concentrations are calculated at 20m, 70m, 115m and 175m from the centreline of the road, based on AADT flows, average speed and average percentage Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDVs). These concentrations represent the average concentration within respectively 50m, 100m, 150m and 200m of the centreline of the road;

• Calculation of the WebTAG units for the scheme, for each road link and distance band:

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Average PM number of properties within the 10 X concentration band

Average NO number of properties within the x X concentration band

• Aggregation of the WebTAG units for the scheme.

The results of this analysis are summarised in Table 3.7.

Table 3.7: Summary of Local Air Quality Impacts

Statistic With Scheme

NO 2, 2012 Net Properties Improved -222 Net Impact (All Routes) 246 PM10, 2012 Net Properties Improved -222 Net Impact (All Routes) 304

NO 2, 2027 Net Properties Improved -222 Net Impact (All Routes) 235 PM10, 2027 Net Properties Improved -222 Net Impact (All Routes) 304

(iii) Regional Emissions

In accordance with the WebTAG guidance, emissions of NO x and carbon were calculated using the DMRB spreadsheet v1.03. The scheme was assessed based on the traffic flows predicted along with the average vehicle speeds, the ratio of light duty vehicles to heavy duty vehicles and link lengths which were calculated from a GIS model. The results were compared to those of the Do Minimum scenario.

This analysis (shown in detail in Appendix 3B) showed that without the Postwick Hub Scheme, C0 2 emissions would increase by 20.8% from 2007 to 2012 and by a further 10.7% to 2027. The Postwick Hub Scheme would increase C0 2 emissions relative to the Do-Minimum scenario, by 3.2% in 2012 and 1.4% in 2027.

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By comparison, NO 2 emissions are forecast to decrease by 17.7% by 2012 and a further 7.5% by 2027 without the Postwick Hub Scheme. The scheme increases NO 2 emissions by 2.2% in 2012 and 1.0% in 2027.

(iv) Greenhouse Gases

The overall assessment for this sub-objective relates to the forecast change in total carbon emissions over the appraisal period, which is calculated by TUBA. The quantitative assessment is the change in total tonnes of carbon in the Adding Postwick Hub to the NDR scheme opening year and across the 60-year period. The latter scheme reduced has been extrapolated based on totals forecast for the model the tonnes of years 2012 and 2027. The indicators input to the AST for the carbon emitted. Dependent Demand scenario, compared with equivalent Figures for the other scenarios, are summarised in Table 3.8. Adding Postwick Hub to the NDR scheme reduced the tonnes of carbon emitted, due to the more efficient operation of the road network. While the additional dependent demand increases carbon emissions, they remain below the level estimated for NDR without the Postwick scheme. Thus the incremental PVB of the Postwick scheme is marginally positive with or without the additional housing demand.

Table 3.8: Summary of Carbon Emissions

Postwick: Postwick: NDR Without Statistic Fixed Land Dependent Postwick Use Demand Change in tonnes of carbon emitted - Opening Year 1,412 1,176 1,378 - Appraisal Period 98,090 65,598 81,262 PVB Carbon Benefits -£3.2m -£2.2m -£2.7m Incremental PVB £1.0m £0.5m

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(v) Landscape

The environment sub objective for landscape has been assessed in accordance with TAG Unit 3.3.7 (Landscape); the information is included in the worksheets in Appendix 3B. The level of assessment for the preferred scheme and do minimum options is at plan level. Unlike the other environment sub Planting new woodland objectives, TAG does not provide a worksheet for strategic level reduces the assessment for landscape, since assessment at this level is of impact on the transport strategies only, with no proposed route options landscape available. However, since the preferred option has been defined to a reasonable level of detail it was considered appropriate to carry out a plan level assessment.

Landscape character is mainly open arable farmland on undulating topography, with a good network of mature hedges and shelter belts. The western boundary is affected by the presence of the Broadland Business Park, A47 dual carriageway junction and the Postwick Park & Ride site, with their associated lighting. The scheme would incorporate a high degree of new woodland planting as mitigation, and consequently the impact of the scheme in landscape terms is considered to be only ‘slight adverse’.

The AST result for the Do Minimum option is ‘no change’, since it is considered that the landscape is unlikely to change significantly in the absence of the proposal, as it would most probably continue to be farmed as it is at present.

The scores given to various features of landscape in the worksheets are summarised in Table 3.9.

Table 3.9: Summary of Landscape Impacts

Feature With Scheme Do Minimum Pattern Slight adverse No change Tranquility Slight adverse No change Cultural No change No change Landcover Slight adverse No change Summary of Character Slight adverse No change Overall Assessment Slight adverse No change

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(vi) Townscape

The guidance for the environment sub objective for townscape The Townscape is found in WebTAG Unit 3.3.8. This states that if a scheme is sub-objective is predominantly rural in nature, then a full assessment of not applicable to townscape is not required. As the Postwick Hub Scheme is in a Postwick Hub due to its rural rural location, it is not considered appropriate to complete a location worksheet for townscape.

Overall Assessment: Not Applicable

(vii) Heritage of Historic Resources

The cultural heritage worksheets have been produced with reference to WebTAG Unit 3.3.9 and the Department for Transport’s DMRB Volume 11 Section 3 Part 2.

Information for the assessment comes from the Norfolk Historic Environment Record, from current work by NAU Archaeology associated with the NDR and from a site visit. Analysis and tabulation of this data has been carried out in accordance with WebTAG guidance principles.

The archaeological sites affected by the scheme are all found on ploughed land and therefore many probably do not survive in particularly good condition. This may vary and some sites may be less denuded through ploughing than others. A direct impact on the prehistoric or Roman enclosure recorded on air photographs is here deemed to be potentially a major adverse impact, although the majority of the enclosure lies outside the Postwick CIF EAA boundary and will not be affected. A single trench has already been excavated across this monument, but with no clear dating evidence (NAU Archaeology records). Other recorded sites are .likely to be subject to moderate adverse impact related to impacts of road building and operation.

The key Heritage impacts are summarised in Table 3.10..

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Table 3.10: Summary of Heritage Impacts

Impact Area With Scheme No impact – there are no Listed Buildings in the Listed Buildings Postwick CIF EAA. No impact – there are no unlisted historic buildings Unlisted Buildings within the Postwick CIF EAA. Adverse impact on several stretches of minor Historic Landscapes hedgerows, survivors of an Enclosure landscape, c. 1800 Levels of impacts for the archaeological sites are Major Adverse. Some sites will be totally destroyed whilst Archaeological Sites others will suffer partial damage. However the existing quality of these sites may be poor Overall Assessment Moderate Adverse

(viii) Biodiversity

The environment sub objective for biodiversity was assessed in accordance with WebTAG Unit 3.3.10, the information is included in the worksheet in Appendix 3B.

The assessment methodology has followed a four stage approach:

• Describe the characteristic biodiversity and earth heritage features

• Assess the importance of the features, why they are important and their inter-relationships

• Describe the impacts including the effects of its distinctive quality and local diversity

• Produce an overall assessment score

The Postwick Hub Scheme is expected to have no significant impacts on nationally designated sites, potential indirect impact on Local Nature Reserves and County Wildlife Sites. The most notable impacts are those on the species rich hedgerows due to direct loss of one important hedgerow and a section of another, bats due to loss of habitat and commuting routes, breeding and overwintering birds due to loss of arable and grassland habitats, and the loss of arable habitat through land take. Mitigations proposed would ensure continuity of habitat is reduced as little as possible for birds and bats and habitat suitable for reptiles is increased. The proposed mitigations do not compensate for the loss of arable habitat.

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Summary assessment score for biodiversity is Moderate Adverse, due to loss of two sections of important hedgerow, loss of bat habitat and cumulative effects of all impacts. The key Biodiversity impacts are summarised in Table 3.11.

Table 3.11: Summary of Biodiversity Impacts

Feature With Scheme Designated Sites Mostly Neutral; Slight adverse impact on 2 sites Habitats Neutral to Slight Adverse Moderate Adverse impact on Species Rich Hedgerows Species Neutral to Slight Adverse Moderate Adverse impact on Bats Overall Assessment Moderate Adverse

(ix) Water Environment

The Water Environment Sub-objective methodology (TAG Unit 3.3.11) has been used in analysing the key features and their associated attributes/services of relevance to the water environment. The completed worksheets are provided in Appendix 3B. The preferred and do-minimum options have been assessed at plan level, which reviews the proposal activities and the potential impacts on specific features and attributes of the water environment, and identifies the potential impacts of the proposal on the important attributes.

The proposed route overlies a major chalk aquifer in an area of high groundwater vulnerability. The road drainage for the proposed road and the Park & Ride site has been designed to minimise impact on groundwater quality and flow by maximising pollution removal and minimising contamination from spills using pollution control valves. The road has also been aligned to avoid unnecessary cuttings in the aquifer to minimise potential adverse affects on groundwater quality, flow or level.

Road drainage would mainly be to infiltration ponds and trenches to prevent pollution from construction or operational road runoff and should minimise impacts on ground and surface water. Infiltration ponds and trenches have been located in areas where the unsaturated zone is more than 5 metres thick. Using the DMRB groundwater risk assessment the resulting overall assessment of impact is slight to moderate adverse.

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The Park & Rides site is would reduce the annual average daily traffic (AADT) to other areas of the city reducing the contaminant load to other ground or surface water drainage systems, although this is difficult to quantify.

No main rivers, perennial watercourses, floodplains or open water are directly affected by the proposed route. No works will be carried out within the floodplain therefore there is no increase in flood risk.

The new slip roads draining into the existing A47 drainage system are of similar a size to the slip road which would be replaced. It is therefore concluded that although there would an overall net increase in traffic contributing to an increase in contaminant load, the overall increase would be small. There is a potential for the A47 road drainage to discharge to the River Additional surface runoff Yare. would be minimal DMRB assessments on the effects of routine runoff confirmed that the additional loading was minimal due to the dilution capacity of the river and the additional surface water runoff from embankments. In the do-minimum scenario there would be additional loading which could affect the river water quality. This assessment however has not allowed for other potential treatment systems such as sediment traps, which would reduce the overall contaminant concentrations below the required standards.

The distance to the ecologically protected areas along the river and within the floodplain means there is no significant adverse impact on these areas from an increase in contaminant load due to major dilution and dispersion over ~3.7km.

Overall Assessment: Slight Adverse

(x) Physical Fitness

The effect on physical fitness is assessed by considering the impact of the scheme on the likelihood of pedestrians and cyclists on achieving more than 30 minutes physical exercise a day The footway and cycleway network Reference is made to guidance found in WebTAG Unit 3.3.12, is improved by the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges Volume 11, Section 3 the scheme. . Part 8, Pedestrians, Cyclists, Equestrians and Community Facilities. WebTAG recognises that it is not appropriate to assess physical fitness at a strategy level.

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There is no current survey data of existing pedestrian and cyclist movements within the proposed Postwick Hub area to give quantitative comment. However, it is recognised that this scheme will enhance the footway and cycleway network, with new provision alongside the proposed highway network. The scheme will provide links from the adjacent business park through to the existing SUSTRANS network to the south of the A47, and the village of Postwick beyond. The County Council is also seeking to provide (through a separate funding route) an additional cycle/footpath to the south of the site, linking the village of Postwick in to the Park & Ride extension.

The provision of a new footway/cycleway over the A47 on the new overbridge will provide users of the existing at-grade crossing over the A47 with an alternative, safer crossing solution. In addition, a new Toucan crossing is proposed on the existing Broadland Way business park access road, to facilitate safer pedestrian and cyclist crossing of the road, giving additional linkages from the existing business park to the footway/cycleway network to the east.

Overall Assessment: Slight Beneficial

(xi) Journey Ambience

This sub-objective covers the impacts on vehicle travellers which are not included in the cost-benefit economic analysis as quantifiable effects. The two impacts considered in the assessment were: • ‘view from the road’ • ‘driver stress’

View from the Road is defined as “the extent to which travellers, including drivers, are exposed to the different types of scenery through which a route passes. Aspects to be considered are: -

• Types of scenery or the landscape character; • The extent to which travellers may be able to view the scene; Significant improvement for • The quality of the landscape as assessed for the baseline pedestrians and studies; cyclists progress and a positive • Features of particular interest or prominence in the view.” impact on users fear of accidents. There were four categories used in assessing traveller’s abilities to see the surrounding landscape:

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• No view – road in deep cutting or contained by bunds, environmental barriers or structures; • Restricted view – frequent cuttings or structures; • Intermittent view – road generally at ground level but with barriers at intervals; • Open view – view extending over many miles, or only restricted by existing landscape features”. Driver stress is defined as the adverse mental and physiological effects experienced by a driver traversing a road network. Factors influencing the level of stress include road layout and geometry, junction frequency, and speed and flow per lane. Taken together, these factors can induce in drivers the feelings of discomfort, annoyance, frustration or fear culminating in physical and emotional tension that detracts from the value and safety of a journey.

DMRB considers that driver stress has three components; frustration, fear of potential accidents, and uncertainty relating to the route being followed. This stress can be graded as Low, Moderate or high. Available research evidence does not permit the use of finely graded assessment of driver stress. A three point descriptive scale – Low, Moderate or High was therefore used.

For the Postwick Hub Scheme, there are no additional facilities proposed for road users and therefore no impact on traveller care. The change in highway infrastructure will lead to a slightly detrimental impact on views from the A47 northwards. However, this will be offset by the slightly positive impact on views from the new link which leads north from the A47 roundabout. The provision of the new slip road arrangement to and from the A47 will improve driver progress along the mainline as well as along routes towards the eastern part of Norwich as it will relieve the current periods in which the junction operates close to or over capacity.

For pedestrians and cyclists the improvements and extensions of the network will significantly improve their progress through the area as the proposals include for a new cycleway and footway along the alignment of the dual carriageway and across the new overbridge. This will provide an alternative, better quality route to the extant Public Right of Way which passes north-south to the east of the northern roundabout junction.

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The material improvements to the infrastructure will also have a positive impact on users’ fear of accidents through the provision of a higher design standard and a coherent junction strategy over the area. This is particularly likely to be the case for pedestrian and cyclist user groups.

Overall Assessment: Moderate Beneficial

3.5.2 Safety

(i) Accidents

The methodology used to analyse historic accident and casualty data for the Postwick CIF study area is described in Department for Transport – Road Safety Good Practice Guide. Comparative data referred to throughout is taken from Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) research data.

Figure 3.1: Extent of the Study Area

U59278 U51488

A47 A1042

The Postwick CIF study area is to the east of Greater Norwich and lies within a rural area (See Figure 3.1). The roads are modern, built to current standards and designed to carry the vehicle flows that travel on them.

A search of accidents and casualty records for the 5 year period, 1 Oct 2003 to 30 Sep 2008, revealed a total of 47 accidents and 57 casualties had occurred. 68% occurred on “A” class roads (see Figure 3.2). 3-14

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Figure 3.2: Accident Locations within the Study Area

The accident and casualty trends over the 5 year period fluctuated unlike the overall trends for Norfolk which recorded a steady decline (see Figure 3.3)

KSI accidents represented approximately 11% of the overall total of accidents and were divided between “A” and “U” class roads. 80% involved motorised two wheeled riders on roads with speed limits of 30mph and usually at roundabouts. The remaining 20% involved pedestrian accidents of which one was a fatal. This occurred on the A47 slip road.

An examination of all accidents on “A” class roads showed that:

• 41% occurred through loss of control, with over half of these occurring on a wet road surface;

• 34% involved tail end collisions;

• 19% took place at roundabouts.

It is likely that the underlying cause is inappropriate speed for weather conditions, bends in the road and junction control. In addition, following distances between vehicles are not well observed and this is likely to be a factor in the accidents. Drivers ideally should be encouraged to slow particularly on approach to junctions and a favoured option to encourage this has increasingly become speed cameras. Drainage and skid resistance should also be well maintained to reduce the likelihood of wet weather accidents.

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An examination of accidents occurring on unclassified roads revealed 33% of accidents occurred on a wet road surface and at a roundabout. Nationally, approximately 10% of accidents occur on these types of road but within the Postwick study area this Figure is 3 times higher. This again is likely to be due to inappropriate speed which leaves the driver unable to react in time to emergency situations as they arise. These roads may also suffer from low levels of maintenance so that roads become generally more slippery which can cause problems in particular for motorised 2 wheeled riders.

In general, speed reducing devices to alert drivers to hazards, which may be difficult to judge or detect, should be used.

Figure 3.3: Accident and Casualty Trends (3 year moving average)

8 Total

0 1 Oct 03 - 30 Sep 06 1 Oct 04 - 30 Sep 07 1 Oct 05 - 30 Sep 08 Accidents Casualties

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Figure 3.4: Severity Breakdown of Accidents

Fatal Serious Slight

Table 3.12: Vulnerable Road Users

Vulnerable Road User Casualties National Study Area Average Average Pedestrians 1.9% 20% Cyclists 2.1% 0% 2 wheeled motor vehicles 8% 80%

It is anticipated that the Postwick Hub Scheme, by providing additional dedicated filter lanes, should reduce vehicle conflicts at the A47 junction although improvements in the circulation of traffic (including higher approach speeds to the junction) could increase the potential for accidents. High quality information and signing would be critical to ensuring accidents are minimised in the new junction/slip road layout. At this stage of the appraisal a COBA assessment has not been undertaken; as relatively few of the accidents highlighted in Figure 3.2 occur either on sliproads to, or on the A47 junction itself, assuming the accident rates on surrounding roads are in the main unaffected by the junction improvements, the impact is likely to be positive but relatively small. However, at this stage a quantitative assessment of these benefits is not available.

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(ii) Security

Assessment of the scheme against the Security sub-objective was made in consultation with the County Council, who have provided information regarding different design issues affecting the security throughout the project.

The assessment follows the guidance provided in WebTAG Unit 3.4.2. Six different indicators were considered where both the The scheme is relative importance and the individual performance were considered to offer assessed. These indicators evaluate the provision of different improvements to features which can reduce the exposure of road users to crime. lighting and visibility and pedestrian and Within the worksheet the ‘Do Minimum’ and ‘Do Something’ cycling facilities. scenarios were evaluated and compared to determine the overall assessment of the proposed strategy. Additionally, a qualitative comment section at the end of the worksheet describes other issues affecting the security of the proposal.

The scheme would benefit from high quality lighting and a new dedicated pedestrian/cyclist route across the A47 and into the Park & Ride site. Lighting, CCTV and staff presence at the Park & Ride site will be maintained at existing high standards.

Taking into account the character of the Do Minimum and Do Something options, both of them count with appropriate security features and an adequate provision of CCTV and lighting.

The results of the assessment are presented in Appendix 3C and summarised in Table 3.13. The scoring system in the Table differs from the standard scoring system outlined at the beginning of Section 3.5 and a separate key is provided.

Table 3.13: Summary of Security Impacts

Security Indicator Relative Without With Importance Scheme Scheme Site perimeters, entrances and exits + +++ +++ Formal surveillance +++ ++ ++ Informal surveillance ++ ++ ++ Landscaping ++ ++ ++ Lighting and visibility +++ ++ +++ Emergency call ++ ++ ++ Pedestrian & Cyclist facilities ++ ++ +++ Overall Assessment Key: + Relative Importance Low/Assessment Poor ++ Relative Importance Medium/Assessment Moderate +++ Relative Importance High/Assessment High

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3.5.3 Economy

(i) Public Accounts

The Public Accounts sub-objective deals with the economic impact of the proposed scheme on local and central government, and comprises the Present Value of Costs (PVC) which forms the denominator of the Benefit Cost Ratio calculation.

The impact of the proposed scheme on public sector providers is detailed in the Public Accounts table in Appendix 3D and summarised in Table 3.14 . This table shows the Public Accounts results for the three “do something” scenarios described in Section 3.4.2. The table shows that the Postwick scheme adds around £4m of costs to local government than if the NDR were built without it. The dependent demand has minimal impact on local government – a slight decrease in revenues occurs.

Central government loses almost £10m in indirect tax revenues when Postwick is added to the NDR scheme, however the additional dependent demand generates almost as much revenue in replacement. Overall the dependent demand, through increased tax revenues, reduces the cost to government of the Postwick scheme.

Table 3.14: Public Accounts Summary

Postwick – Postwick – NDR Without Statistic Fixed Land Dependent Postwick Use Demand Local Government: - Revenue 6.1 8.6 8.7 - Operating Costs 3.5 4.0 4.0 - Investment Costs 8.1 8.6 8.6 - Developer Contributions 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Grant/Subsidy Payment 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Local Impact 17.7 21.3 21.4 Central Government - Investment Costs 89.6 94.2 94.2 - Indirect tax Revenues -22.8 -16.2 -19.8 Net Central Impact 66.8 78.0 74.5 Present Value of Costs 84.4 99.3 95.8 Incremental PVC 14.9 11.4

Note: Values are in £m in 2002 prices, discounted to 2002. Negative Figures denote incomes

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(ii) Transport Economic Efficiency

The Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) table demonstrates Travel time the impact of the proposed scheme on both transport users and benefits are private sector providers, and comprises the Present Value of significantly increased when the Benefits (PVB) which forms the numerator of the Benefit Cost Postwick scheme is Ratio calculation. The impact of the proposed scheme on users added to the NDR – and private providers is detailed in the TEE table in Appendix consumer time benefits more than 3D and summarised in Table 3.15. This table shows the TEE double and results for the three “do something” scenarios described in business time Section 3.4.2. benefits increase by over 50%. Travel time benefits are significantly increased when the

Postwick scheme is added to the NDR – consumer time benefits more than double and business time benefits increase by over 50%. Adding in the dependent demand reduced these benefits, although they remain significantly higher than for the NDR without Postwick.

Table 3.15: Transport Economic Efficiency Summary

Postwick – Postwick – NDR Without Statistic Fixed Land Dependent Postwick Use Demand Consumers: - Travel Time Benefits 81.7 134.9 126.3 - Vehicle Operating Costs -40.2 -26.7 -30.1 - User Charges 19.5 32.8 32.9 - Construction/Maintenance 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Consumer Impact 61.0 141.0 129.0 Business Users: - Travel Time Benefits 98.6 149.5 140.7 - Vehicle Operating Costs -4.3 1.4 0.8 - User Charges 3.3 2.8 2.8 - Construction/Maintenance 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Business User Impact 97.6 153.7 144.3 Private Operators: - Revenues -24.5 -34.6 -34.4 - Operating Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Grant/Subsidy 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Operator Impact -24.5 -34.6 -34.4 Net Business Impact 73.1 119.1 109.9 Present Value of Benefits 134.1 260.1 238.9 Incremental PVB 126.1 104.8

Note: Values are in £m in 2002 prices, discounted to 2002. Negative Figures denote disbenefits

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(iii) Reliability

Guidance in WebTAG 3.5.7 states that the stress-based method of assessment of reliability for road schemes is not appropriate for proposals affecting junctions alone. The majority part of the Significant time Postwick Hub Scheme comprises junction modifications, savings would be although there are some new highway links. A stress-based generated, on the assessment has been undertaken with regard to existing and operation of the NDR, new links and this is presented in Appendix 3D. This demonstrated a neutral impact overall, although this does not reflect the positive impact on reliability that is anticipated through more efficient operation of the A47 junction. Therefore a qualitative assessment, in line with WebTAG guidance, is provided for this sub-objective.

The economic assessment of the impact of the Postwick scheme on the operation of the NDR demonstrated that significnant time savings would be generated by implementing the improved junction and road infrastructure. These significantly outweigh the time savings that would be generated by improving the junction alone, without the NDR. These time savings indicate an improvement in the efficient operation of the junction, which is maintained in spite of the addition of scheme dependent demand.

Overall Assessment: Moderate Beneficial

(iv) Wider Economic Impacts

A study was undertaken for the County Council by Roger Tym & Partners in 2005 to assess the economic impacts of the Norwich Northern Distributor Road, which encompasses the highway Scheme would infrastructure element of the Postwick Hub Scheme. In terms of create positive the section of the NDR route of relevance to the Postwick Hub effects on the development of Scheme, Roger Tym’s report (The Economic Impacts of the employment NDR, June 2005) determined that there would be positive sites. effects on the development of employment sites in the

immediate vicinity of the scheme, such as Broadland Business Park, where a wider labour catchment would prove particularly valuable to new businesses.

• As the NDR as a whole was not considered to have a clear positive effect on alleviating labour market constraints to company growth, reducing unemployment, economic activity rates, deprivation or peripherality, it is considered that the Postwick Hub Scheme would in turn have no clear positive effect on these issues.

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The report noted that in the context of a growth agenda, the scheme could be considered a helpful project, assisting in boosting growth on the periphery of the city, and with particularly positive effects on already developing sites such as the Broadland Business Park. The limited geographical extent of the Postwick Hub Schemes means that benefits are likely to be small although there are clearly important benefits locally in terms of supporting developing employment sites.

Overall Assessment: Slight Beneficial

3.5.4 Accessibility

(i) Option Values

The scheme provides additional Park & Ride spaces which increases the option value of bus based Park & Ride; almost doubling the size of the site provides additional comfort to The scheme potential or occasional users that a space would be available provides additional should they choose to use it. Park & Ride spaces. Additional road-based travel options are limited as the new road infrastructure serves mainly to open up development land and thus new option values relating to the land uses developed on those sites will not be realised until some time after the road infrastructure is completed.

The new junction arrangement does not of itself provide any option values; while it could be argued that the reduced congestion through the junction increases the attractiveness of routes through the junction when considering journeys, the likelihood of this having a material impact is low, other than for regular journeys and this is covered under the Reliability sub- objective.

Overall Assessment: Slight beneficial

(ii) Severance

The effect on severance has been assessed by considering the impact of the scheme on the relative ease or difficulty of pedestrians making journeys to local facilities. Reference has been made to WebTAG Unit 3.6.2, the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges Volume 11, Section 3 Part 8, Pedestrians, Cyclists, Equestrians and Community Facilities (March 08).

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Information from the Norfolk County Council Map Browser showing Ordnance Survey digital mapping, which incorporates A new information from the county’s definitive Rights of Way mapping, footway/cycleway will be provided has been used in all cases to identify public rights of way. Survey information, which was obtained from public rights of way user surveys (September 2006) supports the assessment. In addition in some cases, estimates of cycle usage have been given following discussions with the Norfolk County Council’s cycling officer. Additional information which shows the location of community facilities has been used to support the assessment.

The Postwick Hub Scheme is located in rural areas and as such the severance impacts in relation to existing pedestrian, cyclist or equestrian movements will be limited to locations where existing rights of way are amended.

One existing footpath (Postwick FP2) will be discontinued by the scheme; however, a new footway/cycleway will be provided to replace this, which provides direct access into the Park & Ride site. This is expected to benefit 3-4 pedestrian movements per day. No other existing rights of way will be severed by the scheme. The worksheet for this sub-objective can be found in Appendix 3E.

Overall Assessment: Slight beneficial

(iii) Access to the Transport System

Access to the transport system is measured in terms of:

• The availability of a vehicle for private use;

• Distance from the nearest public transport service, for those without access to a car.

The Postwick Hub Scheme does not involve any significant change in these indicators. The scheme provides new network access for scheme dependent developments, however access benefits relating to the land uses developed on those sites will not be realised until some time after the road infrastructure is completed

Overall Assessment: Neutral

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3.5.5 Integration

(i) Scheme Dependent Housing

Based on the proposals set out by the developers of Broadland Business Park (weblink to their public consultation Based on the http://brookfarmthorpe.com/ ) there are 600 fully dependent proposals of Broadland houses. The housing comprises urban extension on previously Business Park, undeveloped land. At this stage the detail of housing to be there are 600 provided is not known, other than that 240 of the 600 would be fully dependent houses “affordable” dwellings. The worksheet detailing this is provided in Appendix 3F.

Phase 2 of Broadland Business Park cannot be developed as the HA would impose an “Article 14 Direction of Refusal”. This is an important piece of employment land that needs to be developed to help deliver the planned growth in housing and jobs in the Norwich area. A recent employment study by Arup confirmed that Broadland Business Park Phase 2 is an appropriate employment site and that further employment land is required which could be provided by a third phase of expansion. Such further expansion beyond the Phase 2 area would be possible with the proposed new junction layout as it creates access to a new area to the west of Broadland Way.

This provision of a site for 600 houses is a useful way of enabling the Phase 2 of Broadland Business Park, but it still does not address the Article 14 issue.

The conclusion is that none of the proposed development in this area can proceed without a significant improvement to the Postwick junction and there is insufficient value in these developments to provide the improvement.

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The impact of scheme dependent trips on existing users of the transport network is detailed in Section 3.5 of this document. In summary the analysis shows that in spite of increasing traffic levels, travel time benefits remain high and, significantly, considerably greater than if the Postwick Hub were not implemented as part of the NDR.

Overall Assessment: Beneficial

(ii) Transport Interchange

The scope of the passenger interchange assessment includes intermodal interchange. This covers both interchange between public transport modes and between public and private modes, such as Park & Ride. The scheme does not include the 500 additional provision of any new freight interchange facilities. Park & Ride parking spaces The additional 500 parking spaces at the existing Postwick are proposed. PARK & RIDE site will provide a necessary increase in capacity, which would enable more motorists (particularly those travelling outside of the peak times) to access the PARK & RIDE service. In addition, the improvements to the A47 junction (including a new dedicated access to the PARK & RIDE site) will make access to the site easier. By improving car access to the Postwick Park & Ride sites the scheme will facilitate interchange between car and public transport from the eastern fringe of the city.

The users of the expanded PARK & RIDE facility will benefit from existing on-site facilities such as toilets, information, CCTV, newspaper and refreshment sales. The quality of facilities provision will be maintained at existing high levels.

Overall Assessment: Slight Beneficial

(iii) Land Use Policy

The land-use assessment was completed in accordance with the Transport Analysis Guidance and with reference also to DMRB Volume 11 Section 3 Part 12. The national, regional and local policy context was analysed to assess the impact of the scheme on the policies both thematic and site specific. The analysis was based on judgements about the impacts on these policies and proposals in terms as follows, from impacts that facilitate and support the particular policy to those that are neutral in their effects to those which hinder policies adversely.

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The assessment took into account the relevant policies at local, regional and national level. There were considered the following policies:

• Local - Broadland District Local Plan (May 2006), Second Local Transport Plan (March 2006), Joint Core Strategy for Broadland, Norwich and South Norfolk – Issues and Local and regional policies Options, Environmental Assessment Report (21 October are largely 2004) supported. • Regional - East of England Plan (May 2008), Norfolk Waste Local Plan

• National - Transport White Paper, PPG1, PPG3, PPG4, PPG6, PPS7, PPS9, PPG13, PPS15, PPG16, PPG17, PPG24, PPS25

Local Policy is generally supported by the Local Transport Plan, Broadland Local Plan and emerging Joint Core Strategy for Greater Norwich. Joint Core Strategy Issues and Option Stage proposes development in several key locations on the wider NDR route at Rackheath, Postwick and Airport, to which the Postwick Hub Scheme provides a significant element of improved access. Additional growth will remain to be determined. The PARK & RIDE scheme provides additional capacity to encourage mode shift to reduce vehicle journeys into Norwich city centre, although the dependent housing may create new vehicle traffic. Negative effects include severance of possible Green infrastructure.

At a regional level, the scheme is broadly supportive of policies in East of England Plan including environmental policies and Norwich’s role as a growth centre, and contributes to waste management policies through provision for a recycling centre within the expanded PARK & RIDE site. Adverse effects include weakening of cultural heritage plans and impact on rural landscapes.

In terms of national policy, the area is subjected to congestion, poor air quality and the growth plans would accentuate this; the scheme may help to alleviate some of this at a local level. However, car journeys will not be reduced significantly. Some adverse environmental impacts could be felt in the area of the scheme, although there are no impacts on nationally designated sites. Cultural heritage could be adversely affected.

Table 3.16 summarises the overall impacts on land-use policy at local, regional and national level, which are described in detail in Appendix 3F.

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Table 3.16: Summary of Land Use Policy Impacts

Policy Level With Scheme Local Beneficial Regional Beneficial National Neutral Overall Assessment Beneficial

Further discussion of the contribution of the Postwick Hub Scheme to policies and strategies at local, regional and national level can be found in Section 2, Strategic Case.

(iv) Other Government Policies

The strategic fit of the Postwick Hub Scheme with local, regional and national transport and other policy objectives is discussed in detail in Section 2, Strategic Case. The impact of each option on government policies in areas other than transport is detailed in Appendix 3F and summarised in Table 3.17. The schemes The scheme offers are expected to contribute positively towards government policy benefits to in the areas of: Housing and regeneration, • Housing – Growth Point status recognises the need for targeted investment in additional housing for the Norwich area, to meet the housing supply growth objective of Communities and Local Government, as laid out in the Housing and Regeneration Bill;

• Social Inclusion, by facilitating additional affordable housing as part of the scheme dependent development (Cabinet Office);

• Business success, regional economic performance and enterprise economy, through enabling and supporting the development of Broadland Business Park (Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform);

• Employment opportunity (Department for Work and Pensions).

The scheme could hinder environmental and heritage policies and may impact negatively on health of children and young people, although the impacts in these areas would be relatively minor.

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Table 3.17: Summary of Other Government Policy Impacts

Government Policy Areas With Scheme Department Communities and Local Housing and regeneration Government ++ Cabinet Office Social inclusion + Business, Enterprise and Business development, Regulatory Reform regional competitiveness + Children, Schools and Child health Families o Culture, Media and Sport Local heritage - Environment, Food and Environment and rural Rural Affairs communities - Work and Pensions Employment opportunity + Health Health o HM Treasury Economy and employment + Overall Assessment Slight Beneficial

3.5.6 Appraisal Summary Table

The Appraisal Summary Table for the scheme is included in Appendix 3G. A summary of the NATA appraisal contained in the AST is provided in Table 3.18 . This shows the values for the scheme with dependent demand.

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Table 3.18: Summary of NATA Appraisal

Objective Sub-Objective With Scheme Environment Noise (Incremental NPV) £0.2m NO 246 Local Air Quality (2012) 2 PM10 304 Greenhouse Gases (Incremental PVB) £0.5m Landscape - Townscape n/a Heritage of Historic resources -- Biodiversity -- Water - Physical Fitness + Journey Ambience ++ Safety Accidents Not available Security o Economy Public Accounts (Incremental PVC) £11.4m TEE: Business Users and Providers £36.8m (Incremental PVB) TEE: Consumers (Incremental PVB) £68.0m Reliability ++ Wider Economic Impacts + Accessibility Option Values + Severance + Access to the Transport System o Integration Scheme Dependent Housing ++ Transport Interchange + Land-Use Policy ++ Other Government Policies +

Table 3.19 summarises the Benefit Cost Ratios for the Postwick Hub Scheme, showing the economic BCR in Table 3.5 and the overall scheme BCR (including other monetised benefits) as shown in the Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits tables in Appendix 3G.

Table 3.19: BCR Summary

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Scenario Economic Overall BCR BCR

NDR Without Postwick 1.6 2.1

Postwick with Fixed Land Use 2.6 3.1

- Incremental 8.5 8.5

Postwick with Dependent Demand 2.5 2.9

- Incremental 9.2 9.2

3.6 NATA Supporting Analyses

In addition to the NATA assessment of the five key transport objectives presented in Section 3.5, there are three groups of issues of relevance to the overall case for the scheme, but which are not covered within the Appraisal Summary Tables. These groups of issues are more locally focused on specific groups of users, providers and affected parties. These are:

• Distribution and Equity;

• Affordability and Financial Sustainability;

• Practicality and Public Acceptability.

3.6.1 Distribution and Equity

The supporting analysis of Distribution and Equality demonstrates the social and geographic distribution of the impacts of the NDR scheme. This analysis enables an All social groups have been assessment to be made as to whether the overall scheme considered within impacts, demonstrated within the Appraisal Summary Table, are assessment felt equally among the affected population, or whether certain groups are disproportionately affected. This may therefore highlight specific mitigation measures required to assist these groups.

The NATA appraisal highlighted that impacts are relatively localised, with only a small number of network links affected significantly in terms of noise and air quality. Thus it is most appropriate to consider the impact on those living in closest proximity to the scheme, as these would be the most directly affected groups.

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An analysis of 2001 Census Key Area Statistics has been undertaken to profile the population living within the immediate area affected by the scheme. This comprises the ward of Noise and air Plumstead and the Parish of Postwick with Witton (which forms quality impacts part of Brundall ward). The detailed population profiling of this are localised to the Postwick area, in relation to local, regional and national trends is Junction presented in Appendix 3H.

The area immediately adjacent to the Postwick Hub Scheme and thus those most directly affected by it can be summarised as having the following characteristics:

• A higher average household size than other areas of Norfolk; • Lower levels of economic activity than across Broadland as a whole, but higher than Norwich, and with a significantly high proportion of self-employed; • A well-educated population, with high levels of higher education achievement; • Low numbers of people living alone and single-parent households, but high levels of households with school-age children; • Mostly owner-occupied housing, and with a low proportion of council and social rented housing; • High levels of car ownership, whereas Norwich has on The population average less than one car per household; living within the immediate area • High levels of car use for travel to work, low usage of public affected by the scheme has transport and non-motorised modes and a high proportion of been profiled. people working from home;

• Use of public transport for work trips mostly restricted to those without a car available; • A predominantly white population, with particularly low representation of Black and Asian populations; • Low levels of Disability Living Allowance claimants. • Overall it can be concluded that those most directly affected by the scheme are not generally among the more disadvantaged groups within society.

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3.6.2 Affordability and Financial Sustainability

Based on the current estimate, and the various contributions from Government taken together with the adjustment to the Council’s current Formula Spending Shares to cover the cost of future maintenance of an the increased length of infrastructure, The project the Council has assessed the affordability of the project, not construction and only for the construction but during the maintenance and maintenance operation during future years and has concluded that the project costs are is indeed affordable not only now but in the future. affordable. The Councils during the Initial Project Appraisal have also investigated the potential for third party revenue from opportunities such as advertising, leasing of land for mobile communication facilities etc. At this stage the Councils have concluded that none of these third party opportunities are deliverable but will commit to continue to investigate any opportunities for lowering the Project cost further.

Details of the funding package for the implementation of the scheme can be found in Section 6, Financial Case. Ongoing maintenance costs for the Postwick Hub have been estimated to increase in line with inflation, from £0.031m in year 1 of operation to £0.044m in year 15. This would be accommodated from with the Council’s annual revenue budget.

3.6.3 Practicality and Public Acceptability

A number of the key issues in relation to the assessment of the practicality and public acceptability of the proposed Postwick Hub Scheme are dealt with in other sections of the Business Case as follows:

• The scheme has been developed through a number of staged assessments as detailed in Section 2, Strategic Case. • A funding package has been identified for the scheme and is detailed in Section 6, Financial Case. • A preferred procurement route and contract type have been identified, as detailed in Section 5, Commercial Case. • A detailed project programme, including dates for submission of planning applications and confirmation of orders, has been produced and is shown in Section 4, Delivery Case, which also details the governance, project management and risk management strategy for the scheme.

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• A comprehensive list of key stakeholders has been produced and engagement with those key stakeholders is ongoing, as detailed in Section 4, Delivery Case. • An extensive number of public consultations have already been carried out, and further consultations are scheduled at key points in the project programme. These are scheduled in Section 4, Delivery Case. • The Postwick Hub Scheme has the support of the Highways Agency, which recognises the importance of addressing the issues on the trunk road and regards it as necessary to unlock residential and employment land in the north east sector of Norwich; further evidence of this support is provided in Section 4, Delivery Case. • Consultation with Statutory Environmental Bodies has taken place during the scheme development process; this is scheduled in Section 4, Delivery Case. • Details of how the Postwick Hub Scheme integrates with other local, regional and national transport policies and programmes are provided in Section 2, Strategic Case. • Robustness of project programme and procurement route is covered in Section 4, Delivery Case • Partitioning – as a comprehensive improvement to a junction the scheme needs to be delivered as a whole. The scheme, delivered in isolation, forms a partitioned part of the wider NDR scheme, and the economic appraisal shows that the NDR does not deliver the full range of benefits if the Postwick Hub Scheme is not delivered as part of it. Some elements of the scheme, such as the Park & Ride expansion, are to some degree dependent on other parts of the scheme, but deliver different benefits which could not be delivered by those other parts alone.

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4 Delivery Case

The County Council recognises the importance of an integrated governance and delivery structure, comprising sufficiently senior An integrated, highly officers with regular involvement and interaction with elected experienced Members to ensure democratically accountable delivery. This delivery team will Section outlines the composition of the teams afforded the ensure effective delivery responsibility for implementation of the Postwick Hub project, highlighting reporting channels and their timetable for delivery. It also looks at risk management and mitigation and stakeholder engagement, which are critical to ensure that implementation proceeds smoothly.

4.1 Strategic Project Governance

The management and delivery of this scheme will be undertaken as two distinct components – the Postwick Junction and the Park & Ride scheme. Each component has a dedicated The two project team charged with successful delivery. To ensure overall complementary project elements co-ordination of the two complementary elements, however, the have dedicated distinct project teams will be strategically governed by an delivery teams overarching Delivery Board. The organogram (Figure 4.1) below depicts these strategic governance arrangements in more detail, highlighting reporting channels and the frequency of updates. Further explanation on each of the teams and boards comprising the strategic governance arrangements, and their specific roles, can be found below.

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Figure 4.1 Strategic Project Governance

Cabinet Cabinet Scrutiny Committee (Six Monthly Reports) (If and When Required)

Quarterly Meetings Strategic Delivery Board

Monthly Meetings Postwick Hub Project Park and Ride Project Delivery Board Delivery Board

Project Manager Project Manager

Fortnightly Meetings Project Team Project Team

4.1.1 Cabinet and Cabinet Scrutiny Committee

On a six monthly basis, progress will be reported to the County Six-monthly Cabinet Council’s Cabinet, which holds the executive powers. reports will ensure democratically Intervening reports will be prepared if required by the accountable delivery Administration. Additionally, the Project Managers will provide regular updates to the Cabinet member responsible for Planning and Transportation. These arrangements will ensure appropriate democratic involvement of the elected Members.

The Cabinet Scrutiny Committee has the jurisdiction to call in any Cabinet decisions for review. If the Committee chooses to examine the Postwick Hub project in more detail, all relevant reports will be made available by the Project Managers.

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4.1.2 Strategic Delivery Board

The Strategic Delivery Board will comprise the Cabinet Member responsible for Planning and Transportation, Councillor Adrian A Strategic Delivery Gunson; the project sponsor, Mike Jackson – the County Board will retain Council’s Chief Officer for Planning and Transportation; and the overarching direction Senior Responsible Officer, John Joyce and a representative to secure co- ordinated delivery from GO-East. The Project Managers of each of the scheme components will meet with the Strategic Delivery Board to review progress on both expenditure and construction against the specified schedule. Meeting on a quarterly basis, this Board will retain a strategic overview of both scheme components ensuring complementary delivery and providing advice to the Project Managers accordingly.

4.1.3 Project Delivery Board

Two Project Delivery Boards have already been convened for the purposes of drafting this CIF submission and will remain in place to oversee implementation. Tables 4.1 and 4.2 below Dedicated Project Delivery Boards will identify the composition of these teams. The respective Boards provide expert advice will meet once a month. In both cases, the Project Delivery Boards will include Project and Design Managers plus internal and external advisors. They will be supported by the Council’s strategic partner Mott MacDonald, who has vast experience in advising local authorities on the delivery of major infrastructure projects.

4.1.4 Project Managers

Senior, highly experienced members of staff have been appointed to manage each element of the project, establish a detailed action plan and direct the work of the project delivery teams. More information on the Project Managers can be found in section 4.2.2 below.

4.1.5 Project Teams

Each Project Manager will meet with his respective project team on a fortnightly basis. Each work stream will have a detailed Dedicated project teams with clear action plan to guide delivery of the project milestones. Regular responsibilities meetings will ensure the early identification of any delays or problems if they arise. Composition of the project teams is set out below in tables 4.1 and 4.2.

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4.2 Project Delivery and Staffing

4.2.1 Senior Responsible Officer

John Joyce, who is currently Head of Programme Management within the Department of Planning and Transportation at the County Council, will act as Senior Responsible Officer for both the Postwick Junction and the Park & Ride elements of the scheme. A summary of John’s experience can be found in Appendix 4A.

4.2.2 Project Managers

Postwick Junction

Philip Wishart will assume project management of the Postwick Junction element of the scheme. Philip is a Chartered Civil With senior managers Engineer, with 34 years experience in managing highway leading each project, related projects. He has been a Senior Manager at NCC’s delivery of the Department of Planning and Transportation for 17 years. He schemes will benefit from extensive has been responsible for the development, design and experience and implementation of major capital projects with this and two other expertise County Councils and has represented NCC at many Public Inquiries as an expert witness.

Park & Ride

The role of Project Manager for the Park & Ride component will be filled by Ian Taylor. Ian is a Chartered Engineer with 45 years experience, 36 of which have been at NCC in the capacity of a senior manager for major schemes. He is now Contracts Manager responsible for the strategic management of the Council’s partnerships with May Gurney and Mott MacDonald. As part of this role, Ian chairs the delivery teams throughout the design and construction stages for each of NCC’s major contracts; he chaired the delivery team for all of the projects highlighted in later in this Business Case in section 5.4.

4.2.3 Decision Making Process

Day-to-day decisions will be taken by the Project Manager in conjunction with the Project Delivery Board. However, all decisions of a politically sensitive nature, policy or procurement will be confirmed by the Strategic Delivery Board, ensuring participation of Senior Responsible Officer, the Project Sponsor and representation from the County Council’s Cabinet.

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4.2.4 Project Team – Skills and Responsibilities

Tables 4.1 and 4.2 below provide details on the composition of the Project Delivery Boards and the day-to-day delivery teams, which incorporate a complementary mix of Council and external consultancy staff, drawn from the Council’s strategic framework partners Mott MacDonald (MM) and May Gurney (MG). This will ensure that the necessary skill requirements are met.

Table 4.1 Postwick Junction Delivery Board and Team

Role / Function Individual Job Title / Specialisation Project Delivery Board John Joyce Project Sponsor / Responsible Officer (NCC) Philip Wishart Project Manager (NCC) Charles Auger Design Manager (NCC) Gerry Kelly Technical Director (MM) Paul Crick Head of Strategy and Performance (NCC) John Longhurst Head of Highway Operational Service (NCC) Ian Taylor Contracts Manager (NCC)

Project Manager Philip Wishart See above Deputy Project Manager Charles Auger See above / Design Manager Design Team Paul Donnachie Highways Engineer (NCC) Paul Goulding Bridges Engineer (NCC) Policy Manager David Cumming Principal Integrated Transport Planning Officer (NCC) Project Assurance Stephen Jones Senior Project Manager – Civil Engineering (MM) Project Support Rebecca Graham Project Co-ordinator (NCC) Environmental Co- Judith Cantell Senior Landscape Architect (NCC) ordinator Contractor Manager Tbc – following appointment of contractor

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Table 4.2 Park & Ride Delivery Board and Team

Role / Function Individual Job Title / Specialisation Project Delivery Board Ian Taylor Project Manager and Contracts Manager (NCC) Mark Kemp Project Team Manager – Growth Philip Wishart Point schemes (NCC) Gerry Kelly See Table 4.1 above Quentin Brogdale See Table 4.1 above Adrian Bond Project Engineer (NCC) Programme and Resource Manager (MG)

Project Manager Ian Taylor See above. Design Manager Mark Kemp See above. Design Team Richard Flowers Highways Engineer (MM) Andrew Howes Senior Highways Technician (MM) Project Assurance Tina Rust Passenger Transport Asset Manager (NCC) Environmental Co- Judith Cantell See Table 4.1 above ordinator

4.3 Project Programme

4.3.1 Programme for Scheme Delivery

The programme for delivery for both parts of the project can be found in Appendix 4B. Tenders have been received and are currently the subject of evaluation. The County Council is confident that the project will be fully implemented by the end of March 2011.

Project programmes The nature of the procurement arrangements for the Park & will ensure that schemes are Ride scheme is different from that for Postwick Junction. The implemented by the Council will be using an incumbent contractor under the terms end of March 2011 of its strategic partnership. As such, the delivery schedule in Appendix 4B can be specified in more detail and with more certainty.

It should be noted that, for the Postwick Junction component, the Council would be dependent on receiving funding approval by March 2009, at the latest, in order to appoint a contractor and complete details of the works before commencement of construction in September.

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4.3.2 Key Project Milestones

Postwick Hub

• November 2008 – Submit Planning Application

• January 2008 – Publish Orders

Clear project • January 2009 – Commence detailed design work milestones will provide direction … • February 2009 – Receive DfT decision on CIF business case submission

• May 2009 – Planning consent granted

• October 2009 – Commence construction works

• March 2011 – Complete construction works

4.4 Park & Ride

• February 2009 – Receive DfT decision on CIF business case submission

1 … and benchmarks • September 2009 - Commence construction on the A1042 against which to roundabout; Park & Ride access road; park; and ride site assess delivery progress and the drainage lagoon • October 2009 – Commence construction on footpath adjacent to the railway

• November 2009 – Complete works on the A1042 roundabout and Park & Ride access road.

• March 2010 – Complete works on the Park & Ride site; drainage lagoon and the footpath

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4.5 Risk Management

4.5.1 Risk Register

A risk register for both Postwick Junction and Park & Ride developments, which clearly sets out potential obstacles, their Identification of risks and mitigation likelihood of occurrence, the severity of impact and the measures will reduce measures that will be put in place to manage, minimise or the likelihood of mitigate their realisation. It accords with the County Council’s delivery problems and delays corporate guidelines and designates responsible owners for each identified risk.

The risk register can be found in Appendix 4C.

4.6 Stakeholder and Community Engagement

The County Council recognises the necessity for successful Stakeholder and community interaction with the wide range of stakeholders and the consultation are involvement of the surrounding community throughout the prerequisites for before and throughout project implementation. This section scheme success identifies various stakeholder interests, highlights consultation already undertaken and future engagement plans.

4.6.1 Stakeholder Support

The Postwick Hub Scheme has the support of the Highways Agency, which recognises the importance of addressing the issues on the trunk road and regards it as necessary to unlock The Highways Agency recognises the need residential and employment land in the north east sector of to improve Postwick Norwich. The Park & Ride element of the scheme is also Junction in order to welcomed as the Agency is keen to support sustainable modes support local growth …. of transport, which reduce traffic levels on the road network. The Highways Agency has also committed to making road space available for scheme implementation. A letter of support can be found in Appendix 4D.

… and is supportive Finally, we can confirm that, subject to a successful CIF2 of Park & Ride as a funding application and planning permission, the HA will make sustainable transport solution road space available for construction of the Postwick Hub infrastructure to commence in September 2009.

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4.6.2 Evidence of consultation with statutory bodies

Whilst a stand alone project in its own right, which has been designed to overcome existing constraints inhibiting residential and employment growth within the area the Postwick Hub Scheme is would also act as the starting point of provision of a Northern Distributor Road (NDR) for Norwich. The NDR forms a major part of the Norwich Area Transportation Strategy (NATS). As such, the Postwick scheme has been included within the wider NATS and NDR consultation process, which has run from 2004 through to 2003 to 2004 and 2004 to 2005 respectively. During this period, there has been continuous and regular consultation with the following statutory bodies. A detailed timetable of communication can be found in Appendix 4E.

• Countryside Agency Consultation with statutory • English Heritage stakeholders has been regular and • English Nature continuous • Environment Agency

• Natural England

In terms of the Park & Ride scheme, consultation has been undertaken with the Broadland District Council, Postwick Parish Council the Environment Agency, Network Rail, the Highways Agency, the landowner, utility providers and environmental/archaeological consultees.

Consultation with stakeholders is planned to continue throughout the design and delivery process.

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4.6.3 Description of public consultations already carried out

NCC is committed to involving the public in the decision-making process and communicating project progress regularly to all stakeholders.

The Postwick Hub Scheme has been extensively consulted on during the wider engagement of stakeholders regarding NATS and the NDR. This consultation involved the circulation of a brochure and questionnaire to wide range of local people Community including residents in the Greater Norwich area, local consultation has been authorities, statutory bodies, utility companies, local interest wider-ranging giving groups and schools. A series of six public exhibitions were held local people the opportunity to at locations around Norwich and a further eight in Market express their views Towns. There was also attendance at Parish Council meetings around the northern fringe of Norwich, including Postwick. Details of the developments were posted on the Council’s website and a dedicated enquiry telephone line was established.

Further to the above an exhibition was staged in October 2008 by developers Ifield on the development plans for the Broadland Gate Business Park, which the Postwick Hub directly serves. The exhibition explained details on the proposals for business, residential, social amenities, a leisure zone, public transport improvements and pedestrian and cycle routes and invited comments about the planned changes.

All of the channels above have permitted the public and stakeholders to raise queries and input their views.

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5 Commercial Case

5.1 Preferred procurement route

As has already been highlighted in this Business Case, the Two project-specific delivery of the project will be undertaken as two separate approaches will maximise the components, with two specifically dedicated project teams. An efficiency of overarching Strategic Delivery Board will be established to procurement ensure the programmes are aligned and complementary so that the central aims of relieving residential and employment growth constraints can be met.

Splitting the Postwick CIF project into two separate parts lends itself to two different procurement routes, due in part to the different size and value of the respective components but also due to the linkages that the Postwick Junction element has to the plans to construct an NDR. The two preferred procurement routes are described in detail below.

5.1.1 Postwick Junction

Postwick Junction, although critical in itself to remove growth obstacles in the Postwick area, is also regarded as a starting point for the proposed NDR. As such, whilst it will be resourced by a different funding stream to the NDR, the Postwick Hub project was incorporated into the brief for contractors tendering for NDR construction. It is subject, therefore, to the same procurement process.

The Major Scheme Business Case (MSBC) was recently submitted for the NDR and is currently being assessed by the DfT. During the preparation of the MSBC and consideration of the NDR programme, the County Council’s Cabinet approved procurement through the use of Early Contractor Involvement (ECI), to be followed by a construction contract. Essentially, therefore, there will be two stages in the procurement process. Stage One will cover the appointed contractor’s involvement until target cost setting. Stage Two is the actual construction contract, which follows completion of the statutory processes and agreement of the target cost for the works.

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This two-stage approach was selected due to its associated benefits, which are summarised below:

• By commencing the procurement process at an early stage, a contractor can be selected and the programme can be progress soon after a successful funding outcome.

• The ECI contractor can provide advice and assistance from ECI will release an early stage, with scope for innovation and value benefits in terms of design, resource engineering from the outset. planning, risk management and • ECI can help to shorten the procurement period and speed for delivery minimise tender costs.

• ECI generally allows for an open risk management process and allows for the early identification and mitigation of impacts during construction.

• Better forward planning of resource requirements can be undertaken. This can lead to more robust cost forecasting, budget control and programme management.

• Health and safety planning can be more comprehensive.

Procurement Milestones

• October 2008 - Receipt of tenders from contractors

• January 2008 - Decide preferred contractor

• January 2009 - DfT approval of MSBC

• January 2009 - Award of contract; commencement of detailed design work

• February 2009 - DfT approval of Postwick CIF business case submission

• October 2009 - Commence Postwick Hub construction works

Developers are aware The contractors shortlisted to tender for the development were that Postwick Junction is the priority in advised that Postwick Junction will be the first element of the terms of delivery overall programme and, therefore, are aware that delivery is required by March 2011.

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5.1.2 Park & Ride

The delivery of the Park & Ride scheme will not be put out for tender. Costing in total £5,489,672 million (of which £2 million will be CIF funded), NCC will employ its Strategic Partners May Gurney and Mott MacDonald to undertake design and construction.

Details on the Strategic Partnership Norfolk County Council’s Strategic Partnership was developed in response to a Best Value Review into delivering services Norfolk’s Strategic provided by the Department of Planning and Transportation. Partnership is an These services include roads and bridges, transport planning, established working relationship with two passenger transport, waste, environment and planning. A experienced thorough study, considering a wide range of procurement consultancy firms … models, was undertaken with various possibilities analysed using the Mixed Economy Procurement Toolkit, which is an in- house toolkit developed by the County Council.

Following extensive consultation with stakeholders the study proposed that the County Council establish a partnership with external providers. An OJEC notice was issued in February 2003 and after extensive analysis of bids submitted it was decided to let the contract in two lots: Lot 1 - for professional … which helps to deliver the highest services to Mott MacDonald and Lot 2 – for works to May quality planning and Gurney, both starting in April 2004. The tender assessments for transportation both contracts were made on a price/quality basis. Both services, whilst securing value for contracts are based on the New Engineering Contract (NEC) money suite of contracts and run for ten years with break points at five and eight years when either party can give six months notice not to continue. There is no guarantee of the value of work to be awarded through the contracts and no limit to the total value or any individual order.

The NEC was written to embrace the principles of Rethinking Construction, with a defined purpose to deliver on behalf of Norfolk County Council excellent planning, transport, waste and environmental services ensuring value for money.

Mott MacDonald Mott MacDonald’s contract is let under the NEC Professional deliver expert advice Services Contract and their work is paid for on a time re-charge and technical support basis. Mott MacDonald provide approximately one third of the to the Council … design resource for highway work and also carry out a great deal of consultancy work on all aspects of the Norfolk’s planning and transportation services. The turnover through the contract is currently around £3.5 million per annum.

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May Gurney’s contract is let under the NEC Engineering and … whilst May Gurney Construction Contract (ECC); their work is paid for in different assist design and ways depending on the type of work. Early Contractor implement construction of Involvement is a significant part of the Rethinking Construction transport Principles and May Gurney is involved in the design and infrastructure estimation of schemes they construct. The target cost is agreed schemes by both parties before an instruction to proceed is given. The turnover through the contract is currently around £38 million per annum.

Performance standards on all work carried out by the Partnership is measured in a variety of ways including Key Performance Indicators, independent audits on quality, finance and health and safety, benchmarking of costs and customer satisfaction.

Benefits of the Procurement Approach

It is considered that there are a number of tangible benefits for following this procurement approach: • The substantial costs associated with prequalification, tender preparation and award process are avoided.

• The employment of the partners under NEC/ECC contract Expediting delivery terms and conditions will engender a partnering approach and securing to scheme development and delivery, which will enable the improved risk appropriate skill mix; the identification of value engineering management, buildability and cost- solutions, robust programming and integrated mitigation of effectiveness problems. • The proposed use of an Option C Target Cost contract for the works provides additional incentivisation to deliver in a cost effective manner.

• Early warning and compensation event procedures under NEC/ECC contract provide the basis for close ongoing monitoring/control of expenditure together with regular forecasting of outturn costs aimed at minimising unexpected changes in budget requirements and programme. Established financial risk management and cost control procedures are in place on other schemes and will be adopted for this scheme.

• The ability to identify and conduct “up front” investigations and testing, which can reduce unforeseen risk and avoiding disruptive design changes during the works, which could otherwise cause significant programme and cost implications.

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• The ability to readily cost alternative proposals/materials to be used in decision making process, with access to the established partnership supply chain.

• Access to Norfolk County Council laboratory resources to support investigations/testing, plus direct liaison with Streetworks Co-ordinators to plan traffic management and minimise disruption.

• It will be possible to use the successful delivery and contract administration team approach, utilising personnel who are currently working together on other schemes. This will bring benefits of established effective working relationships and processes.

• The ability to develop and implement service diversion/protection requirements in close consultation with statutory utilities to provide overall cost effective solutions within programme constraints.

• There will be a commitment to minimising defects at completion, which is aimed at avoiding unnecessary future traffic disruption. This commitment is part of the Council’s partnering ethos; due to the ten year strategic partnership, contractor commitment is expected to greater than that under a one-off contract.

To summarise the proposed procurement route should provide assurance in terms of buildability, risk, programme and cost effectiveness.

5.2 Risk share The allocation of risk, is generally based on the principle that risk is placed with the party best placed to manage or mitigate that risk should it transpire.

NCC has drawn up a detailed risk register for both components Allocating risk to the for the CIF project, which can be found in Appendix 4C. In the most appropriate case of the Park & Ride scheme, our strategic partners, who will partner will ensure the most effective be responsible for design and delivery, have been fully involved and management in the preparation of the risk register, with responsibilities mitigation strategies designated accordingly. For Postwick Junction, NCC has are in place developed its own quantified risk register, but following appointment, the preferred contractor will become part of the team and work with NCC to update and maintain the quantified risk register. Decisions will then be made on the risk share mechanism between the contractor and NCC to ensure that the proposed allocation provides value for money to the Council.

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The design risk will be retained by the County Council. The only design risk the contractor will carry is that of their own specialist suppliers or other minor elements of design carried out in support of main client design teams. The contractor will, however, be responsible for delivery and programme risk.

5.3 Contract monitoring

To monitor the contractor’s programme, costs and delivery the

Contracts will be council will be setting up a contract administration team for each carefully monitored element of the scheme. The team will include the contractor’s through several and client’s representatives and will meet regularly during the stages course of the contract.

Contract monitoring will also be undertaken on a monthly basis, by the Project Manager and the Project Delivery Board and, on a quarterly basis by the Strategic Delivery Board to ensure adherence to the programme and review costs/expenditure.

5.4 Council’s experience

The County Council has successfully procured and delivered many projects featuring ECI and target cost contracts, a selection of which are illustrated below to showcase NCC’s experience 2:

• Broome Ellingham Bypass (2001)

• Bridges Packages 1 & 2 (2002 – 2004) The Council has extensive experience • Stow Bridge Reconstruction (2004) in procuring and delivering successful • Bridges Framework Contract (2005) infrastructure schemes • Nar Ouse Regeneration Scheme (2005)

• Marine Parade Great Yarmouth Phases 1, 2 & 3 (2005 – 2007) – jointly funded by Great Yarmouth Borough Council and NCC capital

• Cringleford Cluster Scheme (2006) – NCC capital and developer funded

• Guist Bridge (2006)

• St. Peters Street Refurbishment (2006)

2 Unless otherwise stated these schemes were funded by NCC capital.

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• Costessey Landfill Capping (2007)

• St. Georges Parkway (2007 – 2008) – funded by Great Yarmouth Borough Council

• King's Lynn Household Waste Recycling Centre (2008) – jointly funded by King’s Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council and NCC

• King's Lynn Central Park (2008) – funded by King’s Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council

On all of the above projects the County Council has not only undertaken the tendering process, but NCC staff have also The Council is performed the role of Project Manager during delivery. Contract confident of its ability administration has also been carried out by the County Council to deliver high supported by Mott MacDonald, one of its strategic partners. The quality, on time and to budget designated delivery team and administration that will be employed for the implementation of this package of measures for Postwick, is an approach which has been extensively practised by the Council with proven success.

Based on this experience the County Council is confident that it has appropriate expertise and experience to tender and manage successful contract implementation.

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6 Financial Case

The costs set out in this section have been prepared with input from NCC and its strategic partners May Gurney and Mott MacDonald. The estimated outturn costs allow for risk, which has been quantified and included, and inflation. The assumptions on which these Figures are based are explained later in the chapter.

6.1 Detailed cost breakdowns

6.1.1 Postwick Junction

The following table shows the estimated costs for Postwick Junction.

Table 6.1: Postwick junction cost estimates

Mainline Mainline Junctions & Scheme Total Totals carriageway roundabouts Side Roads PRELIMINARIES £2,679,205 SITE CLEARANCE £22,111 £7,454 £8,866 £38,430 FENCING £21,060 £0 £26,393 £47,453 SAFETY FENCING £25,635 £0 £0 £25,635 DRAINAGE £345,835 £262,950 £203,306 £812,091 EARTHWORKS £88,404 £28,063 £102,009 £218,476 PAVEMENTS £592,977 £285,112 £659,272 £1,537,360 KERBS AND FOOTWAYS £21,060 £29,978 £20,126 £71,164 TRAFFIC SIGNS AND ROAD MARKINGS £398,068 £105,925 £7,006 £510,999 LIGHTING £0 £53,620 £147,920 £201,540 STRUCTURES £5,652,000 £0 £0 £5,652,000 LANDSCAPING £15,411 £0 £0 £15,411 ACCOMMODATION WORKS £440,928 £0 £0 £440,928 STATUTORY SERVICES £640,790 £0 £571,669 £1,212,459 QRA £2,609,449

ECI FEE @ 10% £1,225,069 LAND £440,000 TOTAL ESTIMATED COST £17,737,670

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As can be seen from Table 6.2 above, the total estimated project development cost for Postwick Junction is £17,737,670. The following table sets costs per year and allows for a 4.5% annual rate of inflation.

Table 6.2: Indexed cost estimates

Inflation period Land Indexed Works QRA Totals factor to costs end of year 2009/10 2 £4,811,971 £854,875 £440,000 £6,106,846 2010/11 2.5 £11,477,782 £2,039,096 £0.00 £13,516,878 Total £16,289,753 £2,893,971 £440,000 £19,623,724

As such, the total outturn costs for Postwick Junction are £19 million is being estimated at £19,623,724 . The amount being submitted for CIF sought for Postwick Junction funding is, however, capped at £19 million. This is to allow a £2 improvements million bid to be submitted for the Park & Ride element, whilst still ensuring that the Business Case remains at £21 million; this was the amount of CIF funding originally applied for in the Expression of Interest.

6.1.2 Park & Ride

Table 6.3 below details the costs for the Park & Ride project.

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Table 6.3: Park & Ride cost estimates

Outturn Cost Item Cost Preliminaries £400,000 New roundabout £600,000 Park & Ride extension £2,400,000 Cycleway £56,000 Landscaping/drainage lagoon £200,000

ACTIVITIES Risk (contractor) £182,800

CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION Fee @ 8.9% £341,653 CONSTRUCTION TOTAL £4,180,453 3% Operating cost £125,414 1% Contract development fee £41,805 ECI costs £20,000 Project management and administration £120,000 Design fees £80,000 STATS diversion £100,000 Archaeological investigation £5,000 Landscaping works £20,000 Stage 3 safety audit £2,000 Public consultation / TROs £10,000 Application and consents fees £5,000 Accommodation works £10,000 NCC lab and testing £5,000 ADDITIONAL ITEMSADDITIONAL Site investigation £20,000 Ongoing environmental inspections £10,000 Land purchase £500,000 Network Rail fees £10,000 Risk (NCC) £25,000 Inflation £250,000 Reduced land purchase through -£50,000 negotiation ADDITIONAL ITEMS £1,309,219 TOTAL ESTIMATED OUTTURN COSTS £5,489,672

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As such, the total estimated outturn cost for Park & Ride is £5,489,672 . However, this Business Case is not submitting a bid The Council is seeking £2 million for for the entire cost of the Park & Ride site. The application is for the Park & Ride only £2 million, which amounts to 36% of the total costs, the scheme – this is 36% remainder of the project costs will be met by Growth Point funds of the total project cost which have already been allocated to Norwich. A total Growth Point Funding package of £12,128,420 was announced for Norfolk in December 2007; more details can be found in Appendix 6A.

In terms of the spend profile, all expenditure will fall into 2009/10 except for some fees and investigatory works which will be in the current financial year, which will amount to approximately £100,000. All the CIF funded work will be in 2009/10.

6.2 Independent verification of costs

In accordance with good practice and DfT guidance, an independent verification of the project costs for Postwick Junction was undertaken by quantified surveyors. The cost estimates were separated out from the overall NDR cost estimate, which was subject to a review by Cyril Sweett in April 2008. This can be found in Appendix 6B.

6.3 Inflation

In March 2007 the National Audit Commission (NAO) published a report on the estimation and monitoring of road building costs in England. The NAO’s report indicated that the HA were using an inflation rate of 5% up to 2009 and 3.8% in 2010 and beyond. However, more recent information suggests the factors currently in use are 5.2% up to 2009 reducing to 4.0% in 2010 and beyond. This equates to an average inflation rate of 4.5% per annum.

An average inflation Taking the above information into account, it was decided to use rate of 4.5% per the average inflation rate of 4.5% per annum. This rate has annum has been been applied to the costing of both the Postwick Junction and assumed for both Park & Ride schemes. projects

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6.4 Quantified Risk Assessment

The Risk Register for Postwick Junction (see Appendix 4C) includes a quantified risk assessment, which puts the value of risk at £2,609,449. The Park & Ride is considered a relatively low risk project; almost all of the risks specified in the Risk Register are strategic in nature and therefore are difficult to evaluate. However, the Figures presented above do include appropriate estimations of risk.

6.5 Optimism Bias

In accordance with Green Book Guidance on Optimism Bias (OB) for a standard construction contract, the level of OB for the Park & Ride has been set at 44%.

However, for the Postwick Junction component it has been considered appropriate to reduce the level of OB to 25%. This decision has been taken on the basis of the amount of work that has already been undertaken in developing the project and the mitigation factors in place (due to the Postwick Junction being considered during detailed planning for the NDR). It is felt that reduction of the OB is sensible due to the progress of plan and the robustness of the business case.

6.6 Funding

This Business Case is not seeking CIF funds for the total This Business Case amount of scheme costs. The application is for £21 million, seeks £21 million towards the costs for £19 million of which is for the Postwick Junction and £2 the projects in million for the Park & Ride. This represents approximately Postwick 84% of the total costs for implementation of the Postwick Hub costs. Postwick Junction will be 97% funded through CIF, whilst CIF funds will contribute 36% to the Park & Ride project.

6.6.1 Other Funding Sources

The remaining 3% (£623,724) for the Postwick Junction will be Growth Point funds underwritten by the County Council. NCC had already and NCC itself will recognised the need to provide funding for some elements of meet the remaining costs required for the wider NDR programme. As such, it is possible that the project shortfall can be subsumed within this reserved funding. implementation The remaining 64% (£3,489,672) of the Park & Ride will be funded through Growth Point funding (see section 6.1.2 above).

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6.7 Summary of Funding Package

Table 6.4 below summarises the total funds required for delivery of the Postwick Hub package, specifying the funding sources and the level of CIF funds applied for in this Business Case.

Table 6.4: Summary of funding package

Funding source Postwick Park & Ride TOTAL Junction

CIF £19,000,000 £2,000,000 £21,000,000

Norwich Growth Point £3,489,672 £3,489,672

NCC £623,724 £623,724

TOTAL £19,623,724 £5,489,672 £25,113,396

6.8 Revenue Funding The capital improvements to Postwick Junction will not result in any ongoing revenue costs, apart from routine maintenance (e.g gully emptying), which will be met from NCC’s maintenance budget. Revenue implications will be marginal … In terms of the Park & Ride, the increase in capacity will enable additional Park & Ride NCC to look at double decked vehicles from March 2011, which costs will neutralised through most cost- will be more cost-effective. Combined with the potential to better effective operations serve the needs of an expanded business park, either by some contract parking arrangements or the provision of a bus link via the Broadland Business Park into/out of the city centre, the planned expansion means that extra revenue generated will meet the additional running costs'.

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Appendices

Financial Case