Low Yield II
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Low Yield II Cumulative impact of hazard-based legislation on crop protection products in Europe www.ecpa.eu www.twitter.com/cropprotection www.facebook.com/cropprotection March 2020 Cumulative impact of hazard-based legislation on crop protection products in Europe March 2020 Contents Foreword 7 About the authors 9 1 Introduction 11 2 Methodology 17 2.1 Scope of the study 17 2.2 Data collection 18 2.2.1 Farm-level data 18 2.2.2 Country-level data 19 2.2.3 EU-level data 19 2.3 Data analysis 19 2.3.1 Farm-level effects 21 2.3.2 Country effects 23 2.3.3 EU-level effects 23 3 EU-Level Impact: Staple Crops 27 3.1 EU income effects 28 3.2 EU self-sufficiency effects 31 3.2.1 Trade effects: importing staple crops from abroad 31 3.2.2 Land use effects: cultivating additional land in the EU 32 4 Country-Level Impacts 35 4.1 Employment effects 35 5 Belgium 39 5.1 Agriculture in Belgium 39 5.2 Belgian farm-level effects 39 5.3 Belgian country-level effects 41 6 Denmark 45 6.1 Agriculture in Denmark 45 6.2 Danish farm-level effects 45 6.3 Danish country-level effects 48 7 Finland 51 7.1 Agriculture in Finland 51 7.2 Finnish farm-level effects 53 7.3 Finland country-level effects 54 March 2020 3 8 Greece 57 8.1 Agriculture in Greece 57 8.2 Greek farm-level effects 57 8.3 Greek country-level effects 60 9 Hungary 63 9.1 Agriculture in Hungary 63 9.2 Hungarian farm-level effects 64 9.3 Hungarian country-level effects 65 10 Romania 69 10.1 Agriculture in Romania 69 10.2 Romanian farm-level effects 69 10.3 Romanian country-level effects 72 11 Sweden 75 11.1 Agriculture in Sweden 75 11.2 Swedish farm-level effects 76 11.3 Swedish country-level effects 79 12 Conclusion 81 13 Annex 1 Methodology: calculations used in analysis 85 14 Annex 2 Detailed yield and cost changes 89 15 Annex 3 Detailed data sources 127 16 Annex 4 Detailed National Production data 135 17 Annex 5 Detailed list of 75 at-risk substances 139 4 Low Yield II Foreword Agriculture is important in Europe. The Common yields, costs of production and farmer incomes. Agricultural Policy (CAP), which was set up to This is the second volume of a report originally improve agricultural productivity and to ensure a published in 2016 and looks at an additional seven secure supply of food, currently constitutes 38% of countries. The EU aggregate results in this report the entire EU budget. Largely as a result of the CAP, also include the nine countries of the first volume this goal has been achieved and rural communities for a total of 16 countries. Because agriculture is have been protected. This has been a remarkable so intricately linked with the rest of society, we do achievement in the post-World War II era. not claim that these reports contain a complete assessment of all economic aspects of phasing out Although the CAP has gradually shifted away from pesticides. Rather they focus on short-run farm-level production subsidies to producer support, some effects by looking at a substantial number of staple stakeholders argue that it has led to an agricultural and specialty crops using data provided by local system which over-emphasises the cost-efficiency of crop experts. food production for European citizens. This system relies on the availability of chemical fertilizers and The findings of this report should not be considered crop protection products to increase plant growth in isolation but rather as complementary to whilst managing and controlling diseases and findings in the areas of environment, biodiversity pests. Today, there are increasing societal concerns and health. Having said that, based on extensive over the environmental, biodiversity and health data and expert opinions, this report argues that effects of these substances. Alternative production phasing out 75 pesticides will cause lower yields systems are promoted as viable substitutes. Organic while increasing costs of production. This will have farming for example, has grown rapidly and the EU a profound negative effect on farmer incomes. is now the second largest retail market for organic These negative impacts may well be mitigated products after the USA. to some extent as the best-available alternative options could be better than currently assumed by Despite this growth, organic farmland currently the experts. However, it could also be the case that makes up a modest 7.2% of agricultural land in the the actual impacts, due to additional factors such EU according to the institute of Organic Agriculture. as climate change and invasive alien species, have Conventional agriculture remains the dominant been underestimated. This could then lead to an production system and pesticides, therefore, still increase in pest pressure, in addition to accelerating play a crucial role. However, as the EU has shifted resistance effects as a result of a decreased toolbox. from a risk-based legislation towards a hazard- based one over the last decade, a significant As was the case with the first volume, this report number of pesticides have been removed from the has also been peer reviewed by two experts market while more are increasingly at risk of being from Wageningen University. These reviews as phased out due to the very stringent regulatory well as our response to them are available on requirements in the EU. At the same time, the the ECPA website. To transform the way in which introduction of viable substitutes is becoming European farmers ensure a steady supply of safe increasingly difficult. This depletes the ‘toolbox’ and nutritious food for 500 million EU consumers, that farmers have at their disposal to protect their it is important for policymakers and civil society crops from pests and diseases. to consider all the trade-offs. We hope that this report contributes to the current policy discussions The socio-economic impact of this depletion concerning the need to move towards an has received much less attention than the increasingly sustainable food production model. environmental, biodiversity and health impacts of pesticides. Steward Redqueen was commissioned by ECPA to shed more light on impacts such as crop Steward Redqueen March 2020 7 About the authors COMPANY PROFILE TRACK RECORD SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENTS Steward Redqueen is a strategy consultancy firm that aims to make business work for society. The Since 2006 Steward Redqueen has completed more company executes projects around the world from than 150 socio-economic impact studies for many its offices in Amsterdam, Barcelona, Singapore multinational companies and development finance and Stockholm. Since 2000, Steward Redqueen’s institutions in Africa, Asia, Australia, Latin America, team has focused on integrating sustainability, North America and Europe. quantifying impact and facilitating change. Clients include commercial and development financial institutions, impact investors, multinational REVIEWERS enterprises, network organizations and government agencies. For more information visit: We are very grateful to Professors Linda M. Field www.stewardredqueen.com and John Lucas of Rothamsted Research as well as Professor Justus Wesseler and Mr. Chris de Visser of Wageningen University and Research who kindly THE AUTHORS provided us with their expert opinions in volumes one and two respectively. Their comments and René Kim is founder and partner of suggestions have improved the methodology, Steward Redqueen. He has worked analysis and this report. with many multinational companies and financial institutions in both developed and developing markets. He previously worked for the Boston Consulting Group and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He holds a cum laude PhD in Hydrology and Meteorology from Wageningen University. Anne van Drunen Little is a senior consultant with Steward Redqueen. Her focus is on impact assessments in agro-food chains, both in developed and developing markets as well as climate finance. She holds a cum laude MSc in International Public Policy from University College London. Noortje Boogers is a consultant with a specific focus on impact measurement and management. She has worked for several multinationals in the food and beverage sectors and for development finance Institutions. Noortje studied at the University of Amsterdam and Stellenbosch University and holds an MSc in Economics. March 2020 9 1 Introduction The EU is one of the world’s largest agricultural The EC estimates that, in 2017, at least 20% of producers, and farmers in the EU can count farmers experienced an income loss of more than themselves among the most productive in the 30%, with income variability particularly high for world. Over the past 20 years, EU food production cereal and oilseed farmers.1 per capita has consistently increased, now far outstripping dietary energy requirements. The productivity gains are the result of the EU’s good Agricultural viability in the EU agricultural soils, the exceptional level of know-how, To meet the food quantity, quality and price sufficient water availability and an attractive climate. demands of the European consumer in today’s operating environment, many European farmers Nonetheless, European farmers today face a rely on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The number of socio-economic and environmental CAP, launched in 1962, aims to ensure that: the EU challenges. Farmer income is almost 40% lower has a stable source of local food production; rural than non-agricultural income. Throughout the EU, communities and lifestyles remain intact; natural the labour force in the agricultural sector is ageing resources and the environment are protected; and and shrinking; only 5.6% of all European farms are farming remains an economically viable profession. run by farmers younger than 35, and more than This is achieved through income support, the 31% of farmers are over 65 years.