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Analysis of the Relationship Between the Severity of Road Traffic Crashes and the Human Factors Involved: N4 Toll Route Case Study

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Analysis of the Relationship Between the Severity of Road Traffic Crashes and the Human Factors Involved: N4 Toll Route Case Study Analysis of the Relationship between the Severity of Road Traffic Crashes and the Human factors involved: N4 Toll Route Case Study by Andries Johannes Gelderblom Thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Civil Engineering in the Faculty of Engineering at Stellenbosch University Supervisor: Prof. Marion Sinclair March 2021 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Declaration By submitting this thesis electronically, I declare that the entirety of the work contained therein is my own, original work, that I am the sole author thereof (save to the extent explicitly otherwise stated), that reproduction and publication thereof by Stellenbosch University will not infringe any third party rights and that I have not previously in its entirety or in part submitted it for obtaining any qualification. Signature: AJ Gelderblom ______________________ Date: March 2021 Copyright © 2021 Stellenbosch University All rights reserved i Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Abstract Road safety is considered to be one of the most critical concerns in contemporary society. As a result, reducing road traffic crashes is, arguably, the most critical aspect that needs to be addressed within a roadway system. Injuries and fatalities resulting from traffic crashes are a serious problem. Globally, the number of road traffic deaths continues to rise, reaching a devastating 1.35 million fatalities in 2016, which equates to almost 3700 people being killed on the world’s roads every day. Despite the efforts made by government agencies and the engineering community, the road crash fatality rate in South Africa remains higher than the global average. In 2016, approximately 25.9 people per 100 000 lost their lives on South African roads, in comparison, the global average of road fatalities is confirmed at 18 deaths per 100 000 of the population. The study focused on analysing the relationship between the severity of the road traffic crashes, which occurred on the N4 Toll Route in South Africa, and the interaction of the human factors involved in these crashes. Association Rule Analysis was the primary method used to determine the relationship between the crash severity and the human risk factors involved in these crashes. The study confirmed that the human factor plays a critical role in road traffic crashes. Of the almost 9000 crashes analysed, 16.1% of the crashes were caused by vehicle-, 8.7% by road and environmental- , 4.4% by unknown- , and 72.8% by human- factors. The study established that there exists a relationship between the various human factors and crash severity. Among the human factors, crashes that occurred as a result of negligent driving, illegal overtaking and travelling in the wrong direction proofed to pose the highest risk for fatalities or serious injury. Vehicle- pedestrian crashes proofed to be the most dangerous, leading to a fatality in 71.5% of the crashes. A survey was distributed to collect information about the perception that drivers have on the possible relationship between RTCs and the human factors involved in these crashes. In addition, the research was used to gather data on the behaviour of drivers while driving on the highway under South African conditions. Having to indicate what contributes the most towards road safety, 87.8% of the respondents listed ‘Human behaviour’ as the primary factor that leads to a road being deemed safe or unsafe. Word Count: 391 Keywords: Road Safety, Road Traffic Crashes, Human Factors, Association Rule Analysis, Survey. ii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Opsomming Padveiligheid word beskou as een van die beduidendste kwessies waarteen die moderne samelewing vandag te staan kom. Gevolglik is die belangrikste aspek wat binne ʼn padnetwerk aangespreek moet word die vermindering van padongelukke. Beserings en sterftes as gevolg van padongelukke is ʼn ernstige probleem. Die aantal sterftes wat wêreldwyd toegeskryf word aan padongelukke styg voortdurend, in 2016 alleen is daar ʼn verwoestende 1.35 miljoen sterftes aangemeld, wat beteken dat byna 3 700 mense per dag sterf op die wêreld se paaie. Ondanks verskeie pogings deur regeringsagentskappe, sowel as, die ingenieursgemeenskap bly die padongeluk sterftekoers in Suid-Afrika steeds hoër as die wêreldgemiddeld. In 2016 het ongeveer 25.9 mense per 100 000 van die bevolking hulle lewens verloor op Suid-Afrikaanse paaie, dit in ooreenstemming met die bevestigde wêreldgemiddeld van 18 mense per 100 000 van die sterftes binne die bevolking. Hierdie navorsing ontleed die verhouding tussen die intensiteit van ongelukke, en die interaksie met die bydraende menslike faktore tot hierdie padongelukke. Die studie fokus op ongelukke wat plaasgevind het op die N4-Tolpad in Suid-Afrika. Assosiasie reël analise is as primêre metode gebruik om die verhouding tussen die intensiteit van padongelukke en die bydraende menslike faktore te analiseer. Die studie bevestig die kritieke rol wat die menslike faktore in padongelukke speel. Vanuit die byna 9000 padongelukke wat ontleed is, is 16.1% van die padongelukke veroorsaak deur voertuigfaktore, 8.7% deur pad- en omgewingsfaktore, 4.4% deur onbekende faktore en 72.8% deur menslike faktore. Die studie bewys dat daar ʼn verhouding bestaan tussen die verskeie menslike faktore en die graad van intensiteit van padongelukke. Onder die menslike faktore, is bewys dat die hoogste risiko vir sterftes en of ernstige beserings toegeskryf kan word aan ongelukke wat plaasvind as gevolg van nalatigheid, die onwettige verbysteek, en om in die verkeerde rigting te ry. Daar is bevind dat voertuig en voetganger botsings die gevaarlikste is, wat kan lei tot ʼn sterfte koers van 71.5%. ʼn Menings opname was gebruik om inligting te bekom oor die persepsie wat bestuurders het oor die moontlike verhouding tussen padongelukke en die menslike faktore betrokke by ongelukke. Verder is hierdie opname gebruik om inligting te versamel oor die optrede van bestuurders wanneer hulle op ʼn hoofweg in Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede bestuur. Gevra wat die meeste bydra tot padveiligheid, het 87.8% van die respondente aangedui dat menslike faktore die primêre faktor is wat bydra of ʼn pad as veilig of onveilig beskou kan word. Woordtelling: 399 Sleutelwoorde: Padveiligheid, Verkeersongelukke, Menslike faktore, Assosiasie Reël Analise, Menings opname. iii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Acknowledgements Thank you to our Heavenly Father, His Holy Spirit, and to my Lord and Redeemer Jesus Christ, who has filled me with His strength to undertake and finish this work. To my wife, Zel-Marí, thank you for encouraging and supporting me. Your love has given me the motivation to continue through the difficult times of this endeavour. I love you very much. A great deal of appreciation goes to, Prof. Marion Sinclair, my supervisor, for her encouragement, assistance and mentoring for the duration of this thesis. My sincere gratitude towards SNA Civil and Structural Engineers for the bursary and financial support allocated to me. Special thanks go to Trans African Concessions (TRAC) for providing the traffic and crash data used in this research. Thank you to my friends and family for their continued support during this journey. iv Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Table of Contents Declaration ............................................................................................................................................ i Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ ii Opsomming ......................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................. iv List of Tables ...................................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures ..................................................................................................................................... xi List of Acronyms .............................................................................................................................. xiii 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background Information ...................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Problem Statement ............................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Research Objectives ............................................................................................................. 5 1.4 Significance and Motivation ................................................................................................ 5 1.5 Scope and Limitations .......................................................................................................... 6 1.6 Research Questions .............................................................................................................. 7 1.7 Chapter Overview................................................................................................................. 8 2. Literature review ........................................................................................................................
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