Turnover: What Are the Implications of Recent and Upcoming Changes in Hamas? Yousef Munayyer March 15, 2017 Background importantly the United States and other western players. Over the course of this time, Since its establishment in the 1980s, the the Fatah faction in the West Bank has been led Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, or by Mahmoud Abbas, who is simultaneously Hamas, has increasingly become an important the chairman of the PLO as well as the player in domestic Palestinian politics as well president of the Ramallah-based Palestinian as in the armed struggle against Israel. As its Authority. The Gaza-based PA, run by Hamas, ranks and its role have grown over the years, has been led by Ismail Haniyeh, who served so too has tension with its rival Palestinian both as prime minister and as head of Hamas’s political faction Fatah. Despite opposing the Gaza-based political organization. Oslo Accords, Hamas decided to enter into the Palestinian political fray in 2006 when it fielded candidates for the Palestinian An Internal Election Legislative Council (PLC), an Oslo-created institution, and ultimately won enough votes For the first time in recent memory, there will to form a Palestinian Authority (PA) governing be a change in the figures playing these roles. coalition. What followed, along with Haniyeh, who has been the Gaza-based Hamas opposition to such an outcome from the West, prime minister since Hamas ran in the PLC was an unwillingness on the part of Fatah to elections, came up to the end of his second partner in any sort of wider coalition. This set term and will most likely move on to succeed the stage for a confrontation between Hamas, Khaled Mashal as the head of Hamas’s broader which would take over a previously western- politburo. Secretive elections held within the backed authority that was now marginalized movement for a successor to Haniyeh were by the West, and Fatah. This confrontation conducted in recent months and a new leader came to a head in Gaza in 2007 when Hamas was chosen: Yahya al-Sinwar. took control of the Gaza Strip, routing Fatah- Sinwar’s background likely played a affiliated militias. significant role in his election, which was the The political divide between the factions result of a vote that included Hamas members became a geographic one as well from that in Israeli prisons as well as those on the point forward, with Hamas exercising political outside. He is the son of Palestinian refugees, dominance and security control over the like the majority of the population of Gaza, and Palestinian Authority in Gaza and Fatah doing was born and raised in the impoverished Khan the same in the West Bank. Multiple efforts at Yunis refugee camp. The values of his humble reconciliation have failed in the decade since, origins have reportedly been maintained making this intra-Palestinian factional division throughout his life, and he is known for a key feature of modern Palestinian domestic avoiding corruption. politics. This divide has also shaped and been shaped by relations with foreign actors, most 1 In the 1980s, he was involved in the early figures in the Hamas organization he knew in stages of Hamas’s development and played a its earliest days were assassinated: Ahmed leading role in a division called Majd, which Yassin, Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, Salah Shehade, functioned as an internal security apparatus Ahmed Jabari, and Said Siam were all killed by focused on eliminating Palestinian Israeli strikes while Sinwar was locked away. collaborators with Israel during the first While the organization he returned to was in intifada. For these activities, Sinwar was essence the same, many of its leading figures regularly detained and arrested by the Israeli were no longer there; and because he was occupying forces and ultimately imprisoned absent during the days when power struggles and sentenced to four life sentences. He ensued in the aftermath of assassinations and remained in Israeli prison for over two leadership changes, he was not tainted by decades, during which time he played a internal divisions. The new Hamas leader in leading role in the movement’s organization in Gaza is also fluent in Hebrew which, coupled prison. He was released in 2011 along with with the time spent in Israeli prison, has over one thousand other prisoners in exchange afforded him a strong understanding of Israeli for a captured Israeli soldier. He was among society and its vulnerabilities. the highest ranking prisoners released in the exchange; Israel likely was well aware that after his release he would go on to play a more Changes and Their Implications prominent role in Hamas. What does the election of Sinwar mean for the Shortly after his release he was integrated into direction of Hamas in Gaza? It is still too early the leadership of the organization, but not to tell what unique mark, if any, the new before making strong statements about the leader will leave on the organization. But he is need to get the remaining Palestinian prisoners well suited to achieve particular aims should released and lamenting the fact that so many he pursue them. For years, Hamas has faced an were left behind even as he and many others internal challenge of division not only between were freed. The time spent in Israeli prison as those inside Gaza and those outside, notably well as his earlier activities in Majd gave him a between Khaled Mashal and the Gaza-based certain credibility within the military wing of political establishment, but also between the the organization and he began to have an political and military branches of the expanded role in the Qassam Brigades in the organization. Sinwar is perhaps uniquely aftermath of the assassination of Ahmad Jabari. suited to bring a newfound unity of command Jabari had led the negotiations for the prisoner and purpose to the operation of the exchange that secured Sinwar’s release. organization's political and military wings. This unity of command could put the Sinwar served approximately 23 years in organization in a stronger position to negotiate Israeli prison. During this time, several leading agreements, whether with other Palestinian parties like Fatah or external ones like Iran, represented by Sinwar having risen through Egypt, and other regional and global players. the ranks from the squalor of a Khan Yunis refugee camp to the top position in the party. Along with putting the organization in a better position to negotiate, the unity of command Third, the election of Sinwar and his release can also strengthen its position to confront from Israeli prison is, Hamas would seek to Israel. While all indications are that Hamas has argue, a testament to their strategy of cracked down on rogue groups launching militancy, which Fatah has relinquished in rockets on Israel, one of the key dynamics that favor of negotiations. The fact is that Sinwar is accelerates escalation in armed conflict— free from Israeli prison and able to lead is a should events spiral out of control or should result of the raid that captured an Israeli Israel choose to escalate—is a possibility of a soldier in 2006 and traded him for over a return to full-blown war. Hamas does not seem thousand prisoners. Indeed, Sinwar is the interested in seeing this happen again, but embodiment of that strategy’s success in the under Sinwar, the organization may be in a eyes of Hamas. It will not be lost on some better position to coordinate a more effective Palestinians that while Sinwar has been response to such a situation, should it arise. released because of the prisoner exchange, Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader of Sinwar’s Sinwar’s election may also improve Hamas’s generation, continues to languish in Israeli domestic political standing among captivity. Palestinians, albeit not tremendously. According to the Palestinian Center for Policy Political affiliation in Palestinian public and Survey Research (PCPSR) which conducts opinion has been largely fixed over the last 15 quarterly polling on these issues, Hamas years or so. Thus, while these may be powerful stands at around 23-25 percent support as a images and talking points for Hamas after political party among Palestinian respondents Sinwar’s election, they are unlikely to translate in polls that sample Palestinians in the West into major gains. On the other hand, they may Bank and Gaza. Sinwar’s election demonstrates have an impact on the margins, and with a few political selling points Hamas will hope Hamas, which stands only a few points behind to project on the Palestinian public. First, an Fatah in regular polling, that is not something actual change in leadership—both Sinwar to dismiss entirely. Further, at a time of the replacing Haniyeh and Haniyeh replacing Palestinian public’s profound disappointment Mashal—shows that Hamas’s political with leadership, the moment may be ripe for institutions, however secretive, are still bigger shifts than we would normally producing leadership turnover, which they anticipate. As recently as this week, would point out their counterparts in Fatah Palestinians in Ramallah were protesting in the cannot rival. Second, the election shows the streets against the Palestinian Authority and its party's commitment to its members, security collaboration with Israel after a 3 Palestinian activist was killed by Israeli forces light. The document, which includes in Area A, an act they think requires at least incoherent text with anti-Semitic stereotypes, is tacit PA complicity. These demonstrations, representative of a nascent organization and along with their repression by PA security not one that has developed significantly in the forces, serve as a reminder of how tense the 30 or so years since it was penned.