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Home , Ahmed Jabari, Khaled Mashal, Osama Hamdan, Salah Shehade

Turnover: What Are the Implications of Recent and Upcoming Changes in ?

Yousef Munayyer

March 15, 2017 Background importantly the United States and other western players. Over the course of this time, Since its establishment in the 1980s, the the faction in the has been led Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, or by , who is simultaneously Hamas, has increasingly become an important the chairman of the PLO as well as the player in domestic Palestinian politics as well president of the Ramallah-based Palestinian as in the armed struggle against . As its Authority. The Gaza-based PA, run by Hamas, ranks and its role have grown over the years, has been led by , who served so too has tension with its rival Palestinian both as prime minister and as head of Hamas’s political faction Fatah. Despite opposing the Gaza-based political organization. , Hamas decided to enter into the Palestinian political fray in 2006 when it fielded candidates for the Palestinian An Internal Election Legislative Council (PLC), an Oslo-created institution, and ultimately won enough votes For the first time in recent memory, there will to form a Palestinian Authority (PA) governing be a change in the figures playing these roles. coalition. What followed, along with Haniyeh, who has been the Gaza-based Hamas opposition to such an outcome from the West, prime minister since Hamas ran in the PLC was an unwillingness on the part of Fatah to elections, came up to the end of his second partner in any sort of wider coalition. This set term and will most likely move on to succeed the stage for a confrontation between Hamas, as the head of Hamas’s broader which would take over a previously western- politburo. Secretive elections held within the backed authority that was now marginalized movement for a successor to Haniyeh were by the West, and Fatah. This confrontation conducted in recent months and a new leader came to a head in Gaza in 2007 when Hamas was chosen: Yahya al-Sinwar. took control of the , routing Fatah- Sinwar’s background likely played a affiliated militias. significant role in his election, which was the The political divide between the factions result of a vote that included Hamas members became a geographic one as well from that in Israeli prisons as well as those on the point forward, with Hamas exercising political outside. He is the son of , dominance and security control over the like the majority of the population of Gaza, and Palestinian Authority in Gaza and Fatah doing was born and raised in the impoverished Khan the same in the West Bank. Multiple efforts at Yunis refugee camp. The values of his humble reconciliation have failed in the decade since, origins have reportedly been maintained making this intra-Palestinian factional division throughout his life, and he is known for a key feature of modern Palestinian domestic avoiding corruption. politics. This divide has also shaped and been shaped by relations with foreign actors, most

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In the 1980s, he was involved in the early figures in the Hamas organization he knew in stages of Hamas’s development and played a its earliest days were assassinated: Ahmed leading role in a division called Majd, which Yassin, Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, , functioned as an internal security apparatus , and Said Siam were all killed by focused on eliminating Palestinian Israeli strikes while Sinwar was locked away. collaborators with Israel during the first While the organization he returned to was in intifada. For these activities, Sinwar was essence the same, many of its leading figures regularly detained and arrested by the Israeli were no longer there; and because he was occupying forces and ultimately imprisoned absent during the days when power struggles and sentenced to four life sentences. He ensued in the aftermath of assassinations and remained in Israeli prison for over two leadership changes, he was not tainted by decades, during which time he played a internal divisions. The new Hamas leader in leading role in the movement’s organization in Gaza is also fluent in Hebrew which, coupled prison. He was released in 2011 along with with the time spent in Israeli prison, has over one thousand other prisoners in exchange afforded him a strong understanding of Israeli for a captured Israeli soldier. He was among society and its vulnerabilities. the highest ranking prisoners released in the exchange; Israel likely was well aware that after his release he would go on to play a more Changes and Their Implications prominent role in Hamas. What does the election of Sinwar mean for the Shortly after his release he was integrated into direction of Hamas in Gaza? It is still too early the leadership of the organization, but not to tell what unique mark, if any, the new before making strong statements about the leader will leave on the organization. But he is need to get the remaining Palestinian prisoners well suited to achieve particular aims should released and lamenting the fact that so many he pursue them. For years, Hamas has faced an were left behind even as he and many others internal challenge of division not only between were freed. The time spent in Israeli prison as those inside Gaza and those outside, notably well as his earlier activities in Majd gave him a between Khaled Mashal and the Gaza-based certain credibility within the military wing of political establishment, but also between the the organization and he began to have an political and military branches of the expanded role in the Qassam Brigades in the organization. Sinwar is perhaps uniquely aftermath of the assassination of Ahmad Jabari. suited to bring a newfound unity of command Jabari had led the negotiations for the prisoner and purpose to the operation of the exchange that secured Sinwar’s release. organization's political and military wings. This unity of command could put the Sinwar served approximately 23 years in organization in a stronger position to negotiate Israeli prison. During this time, several leading agreements, whether with other Palestinian parties like Fatah or external ones like , represented by Sinwar having risen through , and other regional and global players. the ranks from the squalor of a Khan Yunis refugee camp to the top position in the party. Along with putting the organization in a better position to negotiate, the unity of command Third, the election of Sinwar and his release can also strengthen its position to confront from Israeli prison is, Hamas would seek to Israel. While all indications are that Hamas has argue, a testament to their strategy of cracked down on rogue groups launching militancy, which Fatah has relinquished in rockets on Israel, one of the key dynamics that favor of negotiations. The fact is that Sinwar is accelerates escalation in armed conflict— free from Israeli prison and able to lead is a should events spiral out of control or should result of the raid that captured an Israeli Israel choose to escalate—is a possibility of a soldier in 2006 and traded him for over a return to full-blown war. Hamas does not seem thousand prisoners. Indeed, Sinwar is the interested in seeing this happen again, but embodiment of that strategy’s success in the under Sinwar, the organization may be in a eyes of Hamas. It will not be lost on some better position to coordinate a more effective that while Sinwar has been response to such a situation, should it arise. released because of the prisoner exchange, Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader of Sinwar’s Sinwar’s election may also improve Hamas’s generation, continues to languish in Israeli domestic political standing among captivity. Palestinians, albeit not tremendously. According to the Palestinian Center for Policy Political affiliation in Palestinian public and Survey Research (PCPSR) which conducts opinion has been largely fixed over the last 15 quarterly polling on these issues, Hamas years or so. Thus, while these may be powerful stands at around 23-25 percent support as a images and talking points for Hamas after political party among Palestinian respondents Sinwar’s election, they are unlikely to translate in polls that sample Palestinians in the West into major gains. On the other hand, they may Bank and Gaza. Sinwar’s election demonstrates have an impact on the margins, and with a few political selling points Hamas will hope Hamas, which stands only a few points behind to project on the Palestinian public. First, an Fatah in regular polling, that is not something actual change in leadership—both Sinwar to dismiss entirely. Further, at a time of the replacing Haniyeh and Haniyeh replacing Palestinian public’s profound disappointment Mashal—shows that Hamas’s political with leadership, the moment may be ripe for institutions, however secretive, are still bigger shifts than we would normally producing leadership turnover, which they anticipate. As recently as this week, would point out their counterparts in Fatah Palestinians in Ramallah were protesting in the cannot rival. Second, the election shows the streets against the Palestinian Authority and its party's commitment to its members, security collaboration with Israel after a

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Palestinian activist was killed by Israeli forces light. The document, which includes in Area A, an act they think requires at least incoherent text with anti-Semitic stereotypes, is tacit PA complicity. These demonstrations, representative of a nascent organization and along with their repression by PA security not one that has developed significantly in the forces, serve as a reminder of how tense the 30 or so years since it was penned. Several relationship between citizens and the authority Hamas officials, when pressed on this can be and how quickly things could document, have in recent years referred to it as deteriorate. Such divisions could serve as outdated and historical and demanded that the political openings for Hamas. organization be judged on the political positions it takes at present, including the

pursuit of a Palestinians state on the 1967 lines. Other Potential Changes Recently,

Along with Sinwar’s election, other changes on Hamas spokesperson revealed the horizon for Hamas may have important that Hamas was indeed formulating a new implications for its relations with parties in and political document that would respond to the out of Palestine. Khaled Mashal, who has questions raised by the “Hamas Charter” and served as the Hamas politburo head for many effectively replace it. If handled properly, this years, has been based primarily in . It is could be an opportunity for the mainstreaming not clear whether Haniyeh, Mashal’s all but of the organization. Even though it is certain assured replacement, will operate from outside that Israel and many of its allies will work to of Gaza (as Mashal did) or from within. This marginalize Hamas no matter what the decision will likely have impact on the external organization states, some players will likely relations of the movement because having the point to Hamas’s evolution as grounds for location of the politburo head outside of Gaza opening dialogue and perhaps even relations. has permitted a degree of agility for meetings According to Hamdan, who spoke on this with global and regional political figures—a matter in late January 2017, this updated leader operating from inside the besieged Gaza document would be released “very soon”—but Strip would not enjoy the same flexibility. it is not clear when that may be.

Finally, another type of change could Despite being a key player, Washington is ultimately have the biggest impact on the unlikely to react strongly to any of these direction of the organization and particularly moves. At this point, the current its relations with the outside world. In recent administration is still assessing how it will years, Hamas spokespersons have begun to approach Middle East peace. All indications distance themselves from the document known are that it will not be very engaged but rather to many in the West as the “Hamas Charter.” will try to maintain a strong relationship with Perhaps no document has done more to paint Israel while hoping to keep any Israeli- the organization to westerners in a negative Palestinian violence contained and limited to administration in Washington would begin to current levels. This may change, especially if view Hamas differently, even if Hamas were to any adjustments by Hamas allow for it to moderate its tactics and policies. In the longer warm relations with American allies in Europe. term, however, this scenario could potentially The current American administration, change. however, has also de-prioritized transatlantic What is certain is that there are changes ties. Further, key voices inside the currently taking place in the Hamas administration are anti-Muslim and have organization, some of which can have a particularly targeted political Islam and the profound impact on the future and direction of . They see Hamas as part the movement. The coming months will likely of a larger Islamist movement not because of provide greater clarity as to the direction in the tactics the organization uses but rather the which the movement will go under its changed ideology it espouses. It is very unlikely that the leadership.

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