A Brief History of Equality Geoffrey Brennan, Gordon Menzies and Michael Munger* February 2016 Total Word Count: 11,400 *Corresponding author: Michael Munger, Box 90204, Department of Political Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0204. Fax: 919-844-0954. Phone: 919-369-6453. Email:
[email protected] Abstract: Trends in distribution of wealth and income have profound implications for economic and political stability in societies. We point out an “Iron Law” of distribution: : Future inequality of wealth is decreasing in the income elasticity of family size. It is an “Iron Law” not because it is always the most significant influence on the income/wealth distribution at any point in time—it may not be—but because its effects are relentless, systematic and cumulative. If parents care more about their own children than others, then family size switches from being a brake on concentration of wealth (if wealthy families have more children) to rapidly concentrating wealth (if wealthy families have fewer children). As we show, this consideration, in surprisingly accurate and modern form, was recognized by Smith (1776) in anticipating Malthus (1798), connecting current concerns with income inequality with classic debates over population growth. JEL Codes: B12; B16; D31 Acknowledgements: The authors acknowledge the comments and assistance of the Economics Discipline Empirical Reading Group seminar at University of Technology— Sydney. In addition, Jonathan Anomaly, Bruce Caldwell, Michael Gillespie, Olena Stavrunova, and Georg Vanberg offered useful comments but deserve no blame for the errors that remain. A Brief History of Equality I Introduction I.A. Overview Distribution and inequality of wealth are perennial concerns, both for academic economists and for practical politics.