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SCRRA Strategic Assessment SCRRA Strategic Assessment Southern California Regional Rail Authority January 26, 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ES Page 1 1.0 Study Purpose and Methodology 1.1 1.1 Purpose 1.1 1.2 Methodology 1.1 1.2.1 The Current Metrolink System and the Surrounding Environment 1.1 1.2.2 Definition of Future Operating Scenarios 1.2 1.2.3 Identification of Long- Term Direction 1.4 1.2.4 Challenges 1.4 2.0 Current System and Baseline Capacity 2.1 2.1 Formation of Metrolink 2.1 2.2 Current Operations 2.2 2.3 Person Throughput on Metrolink Compared with Freeways 2.4 2.4 Organizational Summary 2.5 2.5 Mission Statement and Management Philosophy 2.5 2.6 The SCRRA Budget 2.7 2.7 SCRRA Operating Formulae 2.7 2.8 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats, and Unknown Outcomes 2.9 2.9 Constraints on System Growth 2.10 3.0 Metrolink System Safety Program 3.1 3.1 System Safety Program Plan 3.1 3.2 Sealed Corridor Concept 3.2 3.3 Grade Separations 3.5 3.4 Crash Energy Management 3.5 4.0 Public Communications 4.1 4.1 Methods for Determining Customer Communications Needs 4.1 4.1.1 Onboard Surveys 4.1 4.1.2 Rider Panel 4.1 4.1.3 Focus Groups 4.1 4.1.4 Customer Comments 4.1 4.1.5 Industry-wide Research Studies 4.2 4.1.6 Stakeholder Communications 4.2 4.2 Preferences and Expectations for Transit Information 4.2 4.2.1 Printed Materials 4.2 4.2.2 Call Center 4.3 4.2.3 Website 4.3 4.2.4 Station Signage 4.5 a) Static Signage 4.5 b) Dynamic Signage 4.6 4.2.5 In-vehicle information 4.7 4.2.6 Media Relations 4.7 4.3 Short Term Communications Outlook (2006-2015) 4.7 5.0 Demographic Ridership Profiles And Outlook 5.1 5.1 Generational Ridership Segments 5.1 6.0 Growth Elements Controlled by Others 6.1 6.1 Station Access 6.1 6.1.1 Metrolink Station Access 6.1 6.1.2 Station Access Improvement Strategies 6.2 6.2 Station Area Development 6.4 6.2.1 Station Patronage, Access and Parking 6.4 6.2.2 Station Area Development Trends: Transportation and Land Use Planning 6.8 6.3 Extensions and Connections 6.9 7.0 Service Scenarios 7.1 7.1 Scenario Development 7.1 7.2 Weekday Scenarios 7.6 7.3 Weekend Scenarios 7.7 7.4 Equipment Assignment 7.8 8.0 Ridership Forecasts 8.1 8.1 Forecast Methodology 8.1 8.2 Weekday Forecast Results 8.5 8.3 Weekend Forecast Results 8.7 9.0 Operating Costs And Cost Allocation 9.1 9.1 Performance Data 9.1 9.2 Components of the Operating Budget 9.5 9.3 Operating Budget Service Assumptions 9.5 9.4 Summary of Revenues and Expenses by Operating Cost Component 9.6 9.4.1 Revenues 9.6 9.4.2 Expenses 9.8 9.5 Cost Allocation 9.13 10.0 Rehabilitation/Renovation Costs 10.1 10.1 Railroad Infrastructure 10.1 10.1.1 Unit Count 10.2 10.1.2 Service Life 10.2 10.1.3 Unit Cost 10.3 10.1.4 Annual Budgets and Programs 10.3 10.1.5 Allocation to Member Agencies 10.4 10.2 Rehabilitation of Rolling Stock 10.6 10.2.1 Unit Count 10.6 10.2.2 Service Life 10.6 10.2.3 Unit Cost 10.7 10.2.4 Annual Budgets and Programs 10.7 10.2.5 Allocation to Member Agencies 10.7 10.3 Rehabilitation of Non-Revenue Vehicles, On-Rail Equipment, Ticket Vending Machines (TVMs) and other Equipment 10.9 11.0 Capital Costs 11.1 11.1 Improvements by Scenario 11.1 11.2 Capital Cost Summary 11.10 12.0 Scenario Evaluation 12.1 12.1 Approach 12.1 12.2 Evaluation Criteria 12.1 12.3 Evaluation 12.3 13.0 Implementation Challenges 13.1 APPENDIX A.1 Strategic Assessment Technical Advisory Committee (SATAC) Members A.1.1 A.2 Proposed Priority List for Fiscal Years 2006-2007 By Rank A.2.1 A.3 Trends in Population, Employment and Freeway Travel Times A.3.1 A.3.1 Population Growth A.3.1 A.3.3 Ethnicity A.3.3 A.3.4 Employment A.3.3 A.3.5 Freeway Travel Times A.3.5 A.4 Station Access A.4.1 A.4.1 Station Access for U.S. Commuter Rail Operators A.4.2 A.4.2 Station Access Survey Findings A.4.3 A.4.3 Questions for Large Commuter Rail Agencies on Addressing Ridership Increases at Stations A.4.6 A.5 Station Development Planning A.5.1 A.5.1 Transit Oriented and Transit Supportive Development A.5.1 A.5.2 Joint Development of Stations A.5.2 A.5.3 Current Station Area Development Activities A.5.3 A.6 MOW by Line A.6.1 A.7 Cost Allocation Formulae A.7.1 A.8 Glossary of Abbreviations A.8.1 FIGURES AND TABLES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Table 1: Person Throughput on Metrolink Compared with Parallel Freeways ES 1 Figure 1: The Metrolink System ES 3 Table 2: SWOTU Assessment of SCRRA ES 4 Figure 2: Metrolink Ridership Age Projection ES 6 Figure 3: Weekday Trains through 2030 ES 7 Table 3: Weekday Service Levels for the Strategic Assessment ES 8 Table 4: Weekend Service Levels ES 9 Table 5: Weekday Patronage Summary by Line ES 10 Figure 4: Total Ridership through 2030 ES 10 Table 6: Weekend Patronage Summary by Line ES 11 Table 7: Operating Budget Summary ES 11 Table 8: Comparison of Scenario Costs in Constant Dollars ES 12 Figure 5: Proposed Capital Improvements by Location and Type ES 13 Table 9: Average Scores for Service Scenarios ES 14 Table 2.1: Ridership Comparison 2.1 Figure 2.1: The Metrolink System 2.3 Figure 3.1: Metrolink Grade Crossing Incidents per Million Train Miles 3.3 Figure 4.1: Metrolink Customer Information Channels 4.4 Figure 5.1: Metrolink Ridership Generational Segments 5.1 Table 5.1: Metrolink Ridership Age Projection 5.2 Table 6.1: Average Station Spacing by Route 6.4 Figure 6.1: Distribution of Home to Origin Station Distance for Metrolink Riders 6.6 Figure 6.2: Home Based Trip Purpose: System 6.7 Table 6.2: Parking Deficits by County by Time Period/Alternative 6.8 Table 7.1: Weekday Service Levels for the Strategic Assessment 7.1 Table 7.2: Service Levels by Time of Day and Direction 7.2 Table 7.3: Average Frequency of Trains by Time of Day and Direction 7.4 Table 7.4: Weekend Service Levels 7.8 Table 7.5: Equipment Assignment at Layovers by Period 7.9 Figure 8.1: Ridership Forecasting Methodology Process Flow Chart 8.2 Table 8.1: Capture Rates, LAUS Trips, AM Peak 8.3 Table 8.2: Capture Rates, Non LAUS Trips, AM Peak 8.4 Table 8.3: Weekday Patronage Summary by Line 8.6 Table 8.4: Weekend Patronage Summary by Line 8.7 Figure 9.1: SCRRA Annual Operating Data 9.2 Figure 9.2: SCRRA Annual Operating Data 9.3 Figure 9.3: SCRRA Annual Operating Data 9.4 Table 9.1: Operating Budget Cost Component Summary 9.7 Table 9.2: Projection of Operating Subsidies 2010-2030 9.13 Table 10.1: Track, Bridge and Signal/Communications Rehabilitation/Renovation 10.5 Table 10.2: Rolling Stock and Equipment Rehabilitation/Renovation through 2030 10.8 Table 10.3: Member Agency Shares of Rehabilitation/Renovation 10.9 Table 11.1: Capital Improvements Summary for 2010 11.2 Table 11.2: Capital Improvements Summary for 2015 11.4 Table 11.3: Capital Improvements Summary for 2020A 11.5 Table 11.4: Capital Improvements Summary for 2020B 11.6 Table 11.5: Capital Improvements Summary for 2030A 11.7 Table 11.6: Capital Improvements Summary for 2030B 11.8 Table 11.7: Comparison of Scenario Costs in 2005 Dollars 11.9 Figure 11.1: Proposed Capital Improvements by Location and Type 11.10 Table 12.1: Summary Evaluation 12.4 Table 12.2: Average Scores 12.5 APPENDIX Table A.3.1 Metrolink Riders County of Residence A.3.1 Table A.3.2 County Shares of Regional Population A.3.1 Table A.3.3 Population A.3.1 Table A.3.4 Fastest Growing Cities, 2005-2030 A.3.2 Table A.3.5 Ethnicity (Population 30-64 yrs) A.3.3 Table A.3.6 Ethnicity (Metrolink riders 30-64 yrs) A.3.3 Table A.3.7 County Employment A.3.4 Table A.3.8 Jobs / Worker Ratio (30-64 year olds) A.3.5 Table A.3.9 Vehicles per Household A.3.5 Figure A.3.1 Metrolink Ventura County Line AM Commute A.3.6 Figure A.3.2 Metrolink Ventura County Line PM Commute A.3.7 Figure A.3.3 Metrolink Antelope Valley Line AM Commute A.3.8 Figure A.3.4 Metrolink Antelope Valley Line PM Commute A.3.9 Figure A.3.5 Metrolink San Bernardino Line AM Commute A.3.10 Figure A.3.6 Metrolink San Bernardino Line PM Commute A.3.11 Figure A.3.7 Metrolink Riverside Line AM Commute A.3.12 Figure A.3.8 Metrolink Riverside Line PM Commute A.3.13 Figure A.3.9 Metrolink Orange County Line AM Commute A.3.14 Figure A.3.10 Metrolink Orange County Line PM Commute A.3.15 Figure A.3.11 Metrolink 91 Line AM Commute A.3.16 Figure A.3.12 Metrolink 91 Line PM Commute A.3.17 Figure A.3.13 Metrolink IEOC Line AM Commute A.3.18 Figure A.3.14 Metrolink IEOC Line PM Commute A.3.19 Table A.5.1 Station Area Development Status Spring 2006 A.5.3 Table A.7.1 History of SCRRA Operating Budget Line Item Allocation A.7.2 Executive Summary Purpose of the Metrolink Commuter Rail Strategic Assessment The Southern California Regional Rail Authority (SCRRA) is the joint powers authority that operates the Metrolink commuter rail system.
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