Predictive Policing – Psycho-Sociological Models
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Ref. Ares(2020)1365051 - 04/03/2020 Funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union PREVISION - Grant Agreement 833115 Deliverable D1.2: Predictive Policing – Psycho-sociological Models Dissemination Level: CO Nature of the Deliverable: R Date: 16/01/2020 Distribution: WP1 Editors: IfmPt Reviewers: KEMEA, PPM, HfoeD, TRIL Contributors: KEMEA Abstract: In this document, possible applications of different predictive models to the use cases formulated in PREVISION are elaborated. Specifically, measures, methods as well as application and implementation possibilities are discussed and the value of predictive models for the fight against cybercrime, organised crime and terrorism is highlighted. * Dissemination Level: PU= Public, RE= Restricted to a group specified by the Consortium, PP= Restricted to other program participants (including the Commission services), CO= Confidential, only for members of the Consortium (including the Commission services) ** Nature of the Deliverable: P= Prototype, R= Report, S= Specification, T= Tool, O= Other D1.2 Predictive Policing – Psycho-sociological Models Disclaimer This document contains material, which is copyright of certain PREVISION consortium parties and may not be reproduced or copied without permission. The information contained in this document is the proprie- tary confidential information of certain PREVISION consortium parties and may not be disclosed except in accordance with the consortium agreement. The commercial use of any information in this document may require a license from the proprietor of that information. Neither the PREVISION consortium as a whole, nor any certain party of the PREVISION consortium war- rants that the information contained in this document is capable of use, or that use of the information is free from risk, and accepts no liability for loss or damage suffered by any person using the information. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of the PREVISION consortium and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Commission. H2020-SU-FCT03-2018-833115 PREVISION Project Page 2 of 85 D1.2 Predictive Policing – Psycho-sociological Models Revision History Date Rev. Description Partner 27/12/2019 0.1 Document template IfmPt 06/01/2020 0.2 First contribution IfmPt 12/01/2020 1.0 Pree Review IfmPt, KEMEA, PPM,, Hfoed, 15/01/2020 1.1 Second Review IfmPt, KEMEA, PPM,, Hfoed, TRIL 16/01/2020 1.2 Final Version for submission IfmPT/ICCS H2020-SU-FCT03-2018-833115 PREVISION Project Page 3 of 85 D1.2 Predictive Policing – Psycho-sociological Models List of Authors Partner Author IfmPt Dr. Thomas Schweer, Kira Langanki H2020-SU-FCT03-2018-833115 PREVISION Project Page 4 of 85 D1.2 Predictive Policing – Psycho-sociological Models Table of Contents Revision History ............................................................................................................................................ 3 List of Authors ............................................................................................................................................... 4 Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Index of figures ............................................................................................................................................. 7 Index of tables ............................................................................................................................................... 8 Glossary ......................................................................................................................................................... 9 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 10 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 11 2. Main Definitions – Organised Crime, Extremism/Terrorism and Cybercrime........................................ 12 2.1 Organised Crime................................................................................................................................ 12 2.2 Extremism/Terrorism ........................................................................................................................ 16 2.3 Cyber Crime ....................................................................................................................................... 21 3. Prediction/ Forecasting Methods ........................................................................................................... 23 3.1 Criminal Prognosis ............................................................................................................................ 24 3.2 Intuitive Method ............................................................................................................................... 24 3.3 The Statistical-Nomothetical Prognosis ............................................................................................ 25 3.4 The Clinical Idiographic Prognosis ..................................................................................................... 26 3.5 Methodology of Criminal Forecasting............................................................................................... 26 4. Criminological Theories in the context of Predictive Policing ................................................................ 28 4.1 Rational Choice Theory ..................................................................................................................... 28 4.2 Learning Theories .............................................................................................................................. 28 4.3 Routine Activity Approach ................................................................................................................ 29 4.4 The Ecological Approach ................................................................................................................... 30 5. Overview of the State of Research on the Prediction of Criminal Behaviour ........................................ 33 1. Investigation support technologies ............................................................................................. 33 5.1.1. Face Recognition ...................................................................................................................... 33 5.1.2. Video Surveillance ..................................................................................................................... 34 2. Predictive Models to support Security Measures ........................................................................ 35 5.2.1 Space and Personal Approaches ................................................................................................ 37 H2020-SU-FCT03-2018-833115 PREVISION Project Page 5 of 85 D1.2 Predictive Policing – Psycho-sociological Models 5.2.1.1 Spatial Approaches ..................................................................................................................... 37 5.2.1.2 Person-Related Approaches........................................................................................................ 47 2. Further Predictive Approaches .............................................................................................. 56 5.2.2.1 Social Media Monitoring ............................................................................................................. 56 5.2.2.2 Anomie Monitoring Model ......................................................................................................... 57 5.2.2.3 Media Coverage and Terror ........................................................................................................ 63 5.2.2.4 Network Analyses based on Social Media .................................................................................. 64 6. Ethical and Data Protection Aspects of Predictive Policing ................................................................. 69 7. Summary and conclusions .................................................................................................................. 71 References .................................................................................................................................................. 75 H2020-SU-FCT03-2018-833115 PREVISION Project Page 6 of 85 D1.2 Predictive Policing – Psycho-sociological Models Index of figures Figure 1: Victims of terrorist attacks in Western Europe [24] .................................................................... 19 Figure 2: Terrorist attacks in Western Europe per Year [25] ...................................................................... 20 Figure 3: Comparison of conventional transaction and big data transaction [70] ..................................... 37 Figure 4: Buffer zone ................................................................................................................................... 39 Figure 5: Location of the anchor point........................................................................................................ 40 Figure 6: Hot spot method .......................................................................................................................... 41 Figure 7: Near Repeats ...............................................................................................................................