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The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2018

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The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2018 The Japanese Real Estate Investment Market 2018 November 2018 Otemachi Financial City Grand Cube, 1-9-2 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0004, Japan Population movements in Japan Macro fundamentals of Japan Overview of real estate investment market in Japan Office market Residential market Retail property market Logistics property market Hotel market Real estate investment products Copyright（C） Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. Population movements in Japan In 2015, depopulation was observed for the first time in Japan, based on the national census. The decline in number of households was not confirmed by the national census in 2015; hence, the rise is expected to continue. The population of people 65 years or older is expected to level off in 2025 and head downwards from 2040. Population and households in Japan Population Households ← Actual Forecast → (thousand) (thousand) 140,000 70,000 120,000 60,000 100,000 50,000 80,000 40,000 65- 15-64 60,000 30,000 0-14 households 40,000 20,000 20,000 10,000 0 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC “Population Census” Note 1: Population forecast is based on the data of population census in 2015. Note 2: The solid line shows the actual households based on the population census and dotted line shows the predicted households based on the population census in 2010. Note 3: Median-fertility (median-mortality) projection is used in population and household forecast. Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 2 Population movements in Japan Compared to the forecast on number of households based on the 2010 National Census, the peak will shift from 2019 to 2023 and number of households will increase by 2.25 million in 2030 (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) Forecasted and actual number of households Households (thousand) 5,500 5,450 5,419 5,400 5,348 5,350 5,333 +43 5,307 5,300 (0.8%) Forecast based on 2015 5,290 National Census 5,250 +225 (Estimated for 2018) (4.4%) 5,200 5,150 5,123 5,100 5,050 5,000 Forecast based on 2010 National Census 4,950 (Estimated for 2013) 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC “Population Census” Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 3 Population movements in Japan Single-person households have been holding the major share since 2010 and cross 20 million after 2030. Couple and child households will continue to decrease, whereas couple-only households will continue to increase. Forecasted and actual number of households (by family type) Households (thousand) 2,500 Single person (2018 estimate) Couple only (2018 estimate) Couple and child 2,000 (2018 estimate) Others (2018 estimate) Single person (2013 estimate) 1,500 Couple only (2013 estimate) Couple and child (2013 estimate) Others 1,000 (2013 estimate) 500 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC “Population Census” Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 4 tendency can be seen in the increase/decrease of foreigners population. foreigners of the increase/decrease can beseenin tendency The same prefecture. andOkinawa prefecture Fukuoka prefecture, Aichi Tokyo, Greater only in is increasing The population Population movements in Japan The populationofforeignersisdrasticallyincreasinginGreaterTokyoandslightly intheAichiprefecturesand regional core cities. Copyright(C) (thousand) Population Increase/decrease in population of each prefecture from 2010 to 2015. FY Nomura Nomura - - 150 100 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 - 50 50 0 Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. rights All Ltd. Institute, Research Hokkaido Aomori Iwate Miyagi Akita Yamagata Fukushima Ibaraki Tochigi Gunma Saitama Chiba Tokyo Kanagawa Niigata Toyama Ishikawa Fukui Yamanashi Nagano Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC and Research Security Social and Population of Institution National Source: Gifu Shizuoka Aichi Mie Shiga Kyoto Osaka Hyogo Nara Wakayama Tottori Shimane Okayama Hiroshima Yamaguchi Tokushima Kagawa Ehime “Population Census” “Population Kouchi Fukuoka Increase/decrease in population Increase/decrease in population of foreigners Saga Nagasaki Kumamoto pre Oita fectures with Miyazaki Kagoshima Okinawa of Japanese 5 Population movements in Greater Tokyo The population and number of households in the Greater Tokyo will continue to rise together, and it is expected that they would reach their peak in 2020 and 2025 respectively. It is anticipated that the population in the Greater Tokyo will continue to rise till 2020. On the other hand, the number of households is projected to increase until 2025. Population of Greater Tokyo Number of households in Greater Tokyo Population Households (thousand) ← Actual Forecast → (thousand) ← Actual Forecast → 40,000 18,000 35,000 16,000 30,000 14,000 12,000 25,000 10,000 20,000 8,000 15,000 6,000 10,000 4,000 5,000 2,000 0 0 Tokyo Kanagawa Saitama Chiba Tokyo Kanagawa Saitama Chiba Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC “Population Census” Note 1: Median-fertility (median-mortality) projection is used for population forecast. Note 2: Forecast of population and the number of households are based on the “Population Census” in 2010. However, the data of 2015 is based on the population census in 2015. Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 6 Population movements in Japan Although there is no change in the forecast and actual population of the elderly in 2013, young and working age population is rising. Comparison on age-wise population forecast of the Tokyo area Households (thousand) 30,000 0-14 (2018) 15-64 (2018) 25,000 Above 65 (2018) 0-14 (2013) 15-64 (2013) Above 65 (2013) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Source: National Institution of Population and Social Security Research and MIC “Population Census” Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 7 Population movements in Greater Tokyo The population of Greater Tokyo area is rising, but a little less than 50% of the increased population is accounted to foreigners. In the future, it seems that the population growth of Greater Tokyo will be supported by the foreigners. The foreign population dipped temporarily due to the global financial crisis and aftermath of the 2011 earthquake, but has be en rising in line with economic recovery. Foreigners accounted for 38.6% of the population growth in this area. Incremental population growth of foreign and Japanese residents in Greater Tokyo Population (thousand) foreigners (by “Zairyu-Gaikokujin-Tokei”) 260 252 250 241 240 Foreigners (by “Jumin-Kihon-Daicho”) 240 233 Japanese 220 211 207 213 200 191 185 189 180 173 171 168 172 158 160 140 134 59 72 (35.0%) (41.8%) 75 120 40 101 (47.8%) 100 (29.8%) 100 17 80 (16.6%) 23 60 109 94 100 19 84 (65.0%) 82 (70.2%) (58.2%) 40 (83.4%) (52.2%) 20 0 -20 -40 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: “Statistics on Foreign national residents” compiled by Ministry of Justice and “Basic resident registers” compiled by Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Note 1: The population of foreign national is based on the Statistics on Foreign national residents till 2011. In 2012 and later, population is based on the Basic resident registration. Note 2: The statistics of Foreign nationals used the data as of the end of December. Till 2012, the Basic resident registration used the data as of March 31 of the year. Since 2013, it uses the data of population as on January 1 of the following year. Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 8 Population movements in Greater Tokyo Population inflow to Tokyo has been decreasing continuously since 2016, whereas population in the Greater Tokyo area is increasing owing to population inflow to three peripheral prefectures in 2017. The number of net inflows in 2017 recovered to the level of 2005 or 2006. The inflow is projected to continue. Net inflows of people to Greater Tokyo Population (thousand) Tokyo Kanagawa 260 Chiba 240 Saitama 220 200 180 155.2 160 95.0 151.7 132.0 140 127.6 125.3 125.5 116.8 119.4 114.7 117.5 116.0 120 76.7 107.9 100.9 96.5 100 43.3 92.8 Net increase Net 88.0 73.1 67.2 84.2 74.3 80 1.2 76.0 (58.3%) 62.4 65.7 62.8 60 39.7 40 18.3 20 Net decrease Net 0 -20 -40 -5.0 -60 -16.9 -80 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: MIC “Jyumin Kihon Daichou Jinkou Idou Houkoku” Copyright(C) Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved. 9 Population movements in Greater Tokyo Amongst the number of households in Greater Tokyo, the tendency of single-person household to occupy higher ratio is expected to continue in the future.
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