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Foundations of Effective Influence Operations a Framework for Enhancing Army Capabilities

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Foundations of Effective Influence Operations a Framework for Enhancing Army Capabilities THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. 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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Foundations of Effective Influence Operations A Framework for Enhancing Army Capabilities Eric V. Larson, Richard E. Darilek, Daniel Gibran, Brian Nichiporuk, Amy Richardson, Lowell H. Schwartz, Cathryn Quantic Thurston Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release; distribution unlimited ARROYO CENTER The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. W74V8H-06-C-0001. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Foundations of effective influence operations / Eric V. Larson ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4404-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. United States. Army—Planning. 2. Influence (Psychology) 3. United States— Relations—Foreign countries. 4. United States—Foreign public opinion. 5. United States—Military policy. 6. Diplomacy. 7. Strategy. 8. Communication, International. 9. Information warfare—United States. 10. Economic assistance, American. I. Larson, Eric V. (Eric Victor), 1957– UA23.F625 2009 355.4'1—dc22 2008053723 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Since the end of the Cold War, there has been growing interest in improving the nation’s ability to employ various forms of “soft power”— capabilities that might allow the United States to effectively influence the attitudes and behavior of particular foreign audiences while mini- mizing or avoiding combat entirely. The present study was undertaken to assist the U.S. Army in understanding “influence operations” and to identify approaches, methodologies, models, and tools that may be useful in planning, executing, and assessing influence operations. This research was sponsored by the U.S. Army Training and Doc- trine Command’s (TRADOC’s) Futures Center. It was conducted in the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Pro- gram. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. Please direct any comments or additional information to the prin- cipal investigator, Eric V. Larson, at 310.393.0411 extension 7467 or [email protected]. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is DAPRR05007. iii iv Foundations of Effective Influence Operations For more information on RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director of Operations (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 6419; FAX 310-451-6952; email [email protected]), or visit Arroyo’s Web site at http://www.rand.org/ard/. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................vii Table ................................................................................ ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHaptER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Defining Influence Operations ................................................... 2 Study Questions and Approach .................................................. 6 Organization of This Report ...................................................... 8 CHaptER TWO Influencing Individuals .........................................................11 Engineering Attitude Change ...................................................18 Influencing Individuals: Conclusions .......................................... 23 CHaptER THREE Influencing Groups and Networks ...........................................29 Behavioral Perspectives Regarding Groups ....................................29 Rational Choice Perspectives Regarding Groups ............................. 34 Influence in Social Networks ................................................... 38 Influencing Groups and Networks: Conclusions ..............................41 v vi Foundations of Effective Influence Operations CHaptER FOUR Influencing Adversary Leadership Coalitions ............................. 43 Actor-Specific Models and Strategies .......................................... 43 Agent-Based Rational Choice Models ......................................... 46 Influencing Adversary Leadership Coalitions: Conclusions..................51 CHaptER FIVE Influencing Mass Publics .......................................................53 Opinion Leadership and Media Communications ............................58 Content Analysis ................................................................59 Semantic Network Analysis ...................................................63 Assessing Mass Public Opinion .................................................65 Lessons from Case Studies .......................................................67 Influencing Mass Publics: Conclusions .........................................69 CHaptER SIX A Framework for Influence Operations ......................................71 Planning Requirements ...........................................................71 Questions About Strategic Issues .............................................71 Questions About the Target Audiences ......................................74 Some Additional Planning Considerations ....................................81 A Framework for Influence Operations: Conclusions ........................83 CHaptER SEVEN Implications for Planners ......................................................85 APPENDIX A. Case Study of Influence in Advertising and Marketing .............89 B. Case Study of Influence in Political Campaigns .................... 111 C. Case Studies of Influence in Public Diplomacy ..................... 133 D. A Review of Planning Methodologies for Influence Operations ..................................................... 155 Bibliography .................................................................... 179 Figures S.1. Elements of Influence Operations ................................xiii 1.1. Elements of Influence Operations .................................. 5 2.1. Attitude Objects in Multidimensional Space .....................21 2.2. Alternative Domains for Persuasive Appeals .................... 24 5.1. A Simple Model of Influence for Mass Publics .................. 54 6.1. Notional Probability of Accepting a Message Based on High, Medium, or Low Predisposition ........................... 80 B.1. Diagramming an Electorate ...................................... 117 B.2. Impact of Direct Mail During 1994 Texas Governor’s Race ................................................................
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