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The Effects of News Media on Leisure Tourists' Perception of Risk The effects of news media on leisure tourists’ perception of risk and willingness to travel, with specific reference to events of terrorism and political instability Grzegorz Kapuscinski A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of Bournemouth University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy May 2014 Copyright Statement: This copy of the thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with the author and due acknowledgement must always be made of the use of any material contained in, or derived from, this thesis. i The effects of news media on leisure tourists’ perception of risk and willingness to travel, with specific reference to events of terrorism and political instability Grzegorz Kapuscinski Abstract The perceptions people hold of destinations are of critical importance in the world of tourism as they influence individuals’ travel choices. In this sense, tourists’ negative awareness concerning safety and security present at a destination can prove disastrous for its ability to attract visitors (George, 2003; Reisinger and Mavondo, 2005). Among a multitude of factors which may amplify tourists perceived risk associated with consuming tourism products, man-made disasters of political instability and terrorism are particularly intimidating (Cavlek, 2002; Heng, 2006). Central to these issues is the role of the media in providing consumers with risk information, either directly through the exposure to news coverage of hazardous events, or indirectly through ‘word of mouth’ information (Kitzinger, 1999; Wahlberg and Sjorberg, 2000; Hughes et al., 2006; Breakwell, 2007; Renn, 2008). Despite a common agreement concerning the influence of the media on tourists’ perceptions of risk (Sonmez and Graefe, 1998a; Hall, 2002; Beirmann, 2003; Tasci et al., 2007), the relationship is under-researched. This thesis enhances the understanding of the effects of news media reports concerning terrorism and political instability on leisure tourists’ perceived risk and willingness to travel. To reach this aim a sequential mixed method approach consisting of three stages of data collection is adopted. The questionnaire survey determines the influence of tourists’ holiday preferences and demographic factors on perceived destination risk and willingness to travel. In order to evaluate the link between the media and tourists’ perceived risk, the framing theory of media effects is adopted. This involves a survey-embedded experiment which manipulates potential elements of a news report concerning the risk of terrorism and political instability events in order to understand their influence on tourists’ perceived risk and willingness to travel. To gain a depth of understanding and expand on the patterns which emerged in phase one and two of data collection follow-up semi-structured interviews have been conducted. ii This study makes a contribution to the body of perceived destination risk research by applying framing theory and an experimental research method to the investigation of the relationship between news media, tourists’ perceived risk and willingness to travel. The findings indicate that the media effects of risk communication are difficult to control and depend upon the content of messages, the characteristics of the audiences and the characteristics of the jeopardised object. Moreover, the in-depth account of the interaction between audiences and media messages allows insights into the psychological processes that underpin media effects. The results concerning the role that the characteristics of tourists and destinations play in moderating the strength of the effects that coverage of hazards has on perceived risk and willingness to travel have practical implications for destination managers and marketers. iii Table of Contents Copyright Statement: ......................................................................................... i Table of Contents .............................................................................................. iv List of Figures ................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................ x Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................... 11 1.1. Rationale for research ......................................................................... 11 1.2. Aim and objectives .............................................................................. 13 1.3. Thesis structure ................................................................................... 13 Chapter 2: Literature review ....................................................................... 16 2.1. Perceived risk and the vulnerability of the tourism system ................ 17 2.2. Tourism consumer behaviour and risky tourist decision-making ....... 21 2.3. The perception of risk ......................................................................... 28 2.3.1. Risk in social sciences ..................................................................... 28 2.3.2. The perception of risk in tourism .................................................... 34 2.4. Determinants of tourists’ perceived risk and willingness to travel ..... 38 2.4.1. Political instability .......................................................................... 38 2.4.1.1. Political instability risk and tourists’ decisions ............................... 40 2.4.2. Terrorism ......................................................................................... 41 2.4.2.1. Terrorism risk and tourists’ decisions ............................................. 45 2.4.3. Terrorism and political instability – similarities and differences.... 47 2.4.4. Communicating about risks ............................................................ 49 2.4.4.1. Media effects ................................................................................... 50 2.4.5. Travel experience ............................................................................ 56 2.4.6. Holiday preferences ........................................................................ 57 2.4.6.1. Holiday type – benefits sought ........................................................ 57 2.4.6.2. Tourist type ..................................................................................... 60 2.4.7. Demographic factors ....................................................................... 63 2.4.7.1. Age .................................................................................................. 63 2.4.7.2. Gender ............................................................................................. 63 2.4.7.3. Travel group composition ............................................................... 64 Chapter 3: Methodology ............................................................................... 67 3.1. Introduction ......................................................................................... 67 3.2. Focus of the research ........................................................................... 67 3.3. Research approach .............................................................................. 69 iv 3.4. Mixed method strategies and research design ..................................... 71 3.5. Questionnaire survey ........................................................................... 74 3.5.1. Sampling approach and administration ........................................... 77 3.5.2. Questionnaire survey data analysis ................................................. 78 3.5.2.1. Wilcoxon signed-rank test for two related conditions .................... 79 3.5.2.2. Mann-Whitney U-test for two independent samples ...................... 80 3.5.2.3. Kruskall-Wallis for several independent samples ........................... 80 3.6. Survey based experiment .................................................................... 80 3.6.1. Experiments and causal inference ................................................... 80 3.6.2. Types of experimental designs – strengths and weaknesses ........... 82 3.6.3. Experiment design ........................................................................... 85 3.6.3.1. Independent variables – fictitious articles ....................................... 87 3.6.3.2. Terrorism article versions A and B ................................................. 88 3.6.3.3. Political instability article versions A and B ................................... 93 3.6.3.4. Dependent variables ........................................................................ 96 3.6.4. Sampling approach and administration ........................................... 97 3.6.5. Experiment data analysis................................................................. 98 3.7. Interviews ............................................................................................ 98 3.7.1. Sample and interview procedures ................................................. 100 3.7.2. Interview data analysis .................................................................. 100 Chapter 4: Questionnaire survey and survey-experiment findings ....... 103 4.1. Questionnaire – respondents’ profiles ............................................... 103 4.1.1. Background
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