Election 2014 (Final Result) Data Insights Topix
October 2014 To celebrate the launch of our data analytics MMP vs. FPTP practice we have put together some quick statistics If the party vote victories by electorate are anything on the election results. Whilst the overall results to go by, National, which won in 60 electorates, are well known and publicised, some interesting would have fared even better under FPTP. observations arise when combined with last year’s census data. It is interesting to note the absence of the Green Party in the chart below. Despite being New The results presented here don’t do justice to the Zealand’s third largest party (by overall party vote true power of data analytics; such are the limitations percentage), the Green Party failed to achieve of using aggregated publicly available data. either a party vote victory or a candidate victory in Nevertheless, there is always some ‘juice’ to be any electorate. Clearly the Green Party would squeezed from any dataset. need to adopt a different strategy under a FPTP system. New Zealand First is in the same position. Background information While there are 120 seats in Parliament there are The statistics only 71 electorates around the country, including On page 2 we set the scene for the country as a the seven Māori seats. whole. We take a look at the overall proportions for each party and set the scene in terms of age, Nationwide results income and family makeup. The chart below illustrates the clear victory to Then further on we get to the interesting parts: National. The results in respect of the 71 electorates around the country showed National led ● How do the results differ by electorate? the party vote in 60 electorates with Labour leading ● Do the results support the notion that NZ First the other 11. targets the older vote? Are there older The results for electoral candidates are a bit more electorates and younger ones? diverse. National won the candidate vote in 41 ● Could a different strategy have paid off better electorates against Labour’s 27. The other three for the Conservatives? electoral seats went to the Māori Party, Act and United Future. Under MMP, these parties get their We take a look at a few of the interesting seats in Parliament thanks to the candidate vote, electorates and then do a two-way analysis of the despite National or Labour achieving a majority party vote. party vote in each of these three electorates. Further information There was one change which occurred following the inclusion of the special votes in the results: National We have the full results available for all 71 overtook Labour for the party vote in Dunedin North. electorates so please contact the authors below if you would like a copy.
Party vote winner Candidate winner
60 National Party 41
11 Labour Party 27
Māori Party 1
ACT New Zealand 1
United Future 1
Simpl House 40 Mercer Street www.mjw.co.nz 57 Fort Street PO Box 11330 Wellington 6142 New Zealand PO Box 4014 Auckland 1140 New Zealand T: 64 4 499 0277 T: 64 9 300 7155 [email protected] MELVILLE JESSUP WEAVER LIMITED [email protected] Election 2014 Page 2
Nationwide view
National Party
Labour Party Party vote Green Party
New Zealand First Party
Māori Party
Conservative
Internet MANA
Candidate vote ACT New Zealand
United Future
Others
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% The chart above illustrates the overall election result Personal annual income 6% by party vote and candidate vote. While National earn over achieved similar results (47% party vote vs. 46% $100,000 overall candidate vote), the mixed results for Labour, the Green Party and NZ First are interesting. Labour clearly failed to secure the party vote (25%) but managed to retain several high profile MP’s in electorates such as New Lynn, Mt
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Albert and Mt Roskill, as well as winning the candidate vote in all but one of the Māori seats. <$10,000 $10,001 - $30,000 $30,001 - $50,000 The Green Party and NZ First won 11% and 9% of $50,001 - $70,000 $70,001 - $100,000 >$100,000 the party vote respectively but neither party was close to winning an electorate seat. Whilst there is no individual voter data available for Age analysis we can look at certain features of each Median electorate that might explain voter behaviour. The 38.0 charts to the left, based on the 2013 Census data, illustrate the spread of income, age and family size for all of New Zealand. The income chart shows the spread of annual income from all sources for individuals aged 15 and 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% over, whether working or otherwise. On this basis 6% of individuals across New Zealand earn over <18 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 64 65 + $100k p.a. This figure ranges from 1% in the Māngere, Manukau East and Manurewa electorates to 17% in the Epsom and Tāmaki electorates.
Dependent children The age chart shows that the median age of New 8% have Zealanders is 38. This means that half the 4 or more children population is older than 38 and half the population is younger. The oldest electorate is Ōtaki which has a median age of 48. The Māori electorates are the youngest with median ages between 23 and 26. The dependent children chart illustrates the number
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% of children under 18 per family. Across NZ 8% of families have four or more dependent children.
None One Two Three Four or more North Shore has the lowest proportion with 3% while Māngere has the highest with 20%.
Towers Watson Alliance Partner
Election 2014 Page 3
Epsom
National Party
Labour Party Party vote Green Party
New Zealand First Party
Māori Party
Conservative
Internet MANA
Candidate vote ACT New Zealand
United Future
Others
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Tactical voting has become a hallmark of the Personal annual income 17% Epsom electorate as is evident in the chart above. earn over While National won 63% of the party vote, ACT won $100,000 the candidate vote with 43%. It is interesting that National still gained 32% of the candidate vote despite not actively contesting the seat. It has been suggested that Labour and Green Party supporters gave their candidate vote to National in 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% an attempt to counteract the deal struck between
<$10,000 $10,001 - $30,000 $30,001 - $50,000 National and ACT. Indeed the much lower candidate vote percentages for Labour and the $50,001 - $70,000 $70,001 - $100,000 >$100,000 Green Party compared to their party vote results does give some weight to this theory.
Age The income chart to the left illustrates what is widely Median known about Epsom – it is a wealthy electorate. 37.5 The proportion of individuals earning over $100k p.a. – 17% – is one of the highest in the country and nearly three times higher than the nationwide figure. The age chart shows that the median age of the Epsom electorate is much the same as that for the 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% rest of New Zealand. However, the age spread of Epsom is slightly narrower than the rest of the <18 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 64 65 + country, with fewer people in the under 18 and over 65 categories. Epsom has one of the lowest proportions of large Dependent children families in the country. Just 3% of families have 3% have four or more dependent children, less than half the 4 or more children national average of 8%, while 22% of families have no dependent children. This provides some evidence of a relationship between higher income and fewer children.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
None One Two Three Four or more
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Election 2014 Page 4
New Lynn
National Party
Labour Party Party vote Green Party
New Zealand First Party
Māori Party
Conservative
Internet MANA
Candidate vote ACT New Zealand
United Future
Others
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% New Lynn is an interesting electorate. The seat Personal annual income 4% was retained by David Cunliffe but Labour lost the earn over party vote to National, as illustrated in the chart $100,000 above. This was a common phenomenon for the Labour Party - out of the 21 general (non-Māori) electorates where it won the seat, Labour won the party vote in only 4 electorates (this figure is down from 5 electorates based on the preliminary results). 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% This suggests some loyalty at a personal level for
<$10,000 $10,001 - $30,000 $30,001 - $50,000 the Labour candidates rather than support for the party. $50,001 - $70,000 $70,001 - $100,000 >$100,000 The New Lynn electorate also shows a curious geographical split of party support with polling Age booths in the southern part of the electorate such as Median Titirangi, Laingholm, Green Bay and Blockhouse 36.4 Bay favouring National and northern polling booths such as in Avondale, Mt Roskill, and New Lynn favouring the Labour Party. A surprising exception to this trend is Glen Eden where National won the party vote.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% The geographical split of party support is perhaps indicative of a two-tiered electorate. The income <18 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 64 65 + chart to the left shows that just 4% of the New Lynn electorate earn over $100k, compared to 6% nationwide, and a relatively high proportion (25%) earn less than $10k, compared to the national Dependent children 6% have average of 20%. 4 or more children The lower income of the electorate might be explained, in part, by New Lynn’s lower median age of 36.4 compared to the national median age of 38. The dependent children chart to the left shows that, at 6%, the proportion of families with four or more 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% dependent children is less than the national average of 8%. Families with no children or one None One Two Three Four or more child make up 53% of the electorate compared with 44% New Zealand-wide.
Towers Watson Alliance Partner
Election 2014 Page 5
Te Tai Tokerau
National Party
Labour Party Party vote Green Party
New Zealand First Party
Māori Party
Conservative
Internet MANA
Candidate vote ACT New Zealand
United Future
Others
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% The Māori electorates cover much larger Personal annual income 3% geographical areas than the general electorates. earn over Te Tai Tokerau stretches from the Auckland $100,000 harbour bridge to Cape Reinga. Because of this one might expect the election results for the Māori electorates to be less homogenous than that for the general electorates. In addition, the Census data for the Māori electorates does not perfectly capture 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% those Māori who are actually enrolled on the Māori
<$10,000 $10,001 - $30,000 $30,001 - $50,000 roll. Rather, all people who identified as being of Māori descent are included in the Census data $50,001 - $70,000 $70,001 - $100,000 >$100,000 charts, regardless of whether they voted in the Māori or general roll.
Age Te Tai Tokerau was a high profile electorate this Median year with the Internet MANA Party’s ticket to 25.1 Parliament relying on Hone Harawira retaining his seat. The result of the candidate vote, which saw Labour’s Kelvin Davis triumph over Hone Harawira by 739 votes, was widely unexpected. The National Party did not contest the candidate 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% vote in the Māori seats but, perhaps surprisingly, still picked up some party votes. <18 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 64 65 + The income chart shows that the proportion of individuals in Te Tai Tokerau earning less than $10k is relatively high at 26% compared to 20% Dependent children nationwide, though this is correlated with age. 14% have 4 or more The median age of the electorate of 25.1 is nearly children 13 years younger than the national median of 38. This is highlighted in the chart to the left which shows 39% of the electorate are aged 18 and younger (cf. 25% nationwide), and just 6% are aged over 65 (cf.14% nationwide). 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% The large proportion of the electorate aged 18 and None One Two Three Four or more younger is further illustrated in the dependent children chart to the left, which shows that 14% of families have four or more dependent children, compared to 8% nationwide.
Towers Watson Alliance Partner
Election 2014 Page 6
Two-way analysis of party vote In this section we compare the party vote percentage for each electorate to: ● The candidate vote percentage ● The proportion of the electorate earning over $100k (as defined on Page 2) ● The median age of the electorate In the charts that follow each dot represents an electorate. The dots are colour coded according to party.
National vs. Labour The charts to the left illustrate the results Party vote vs Candidate vote for the National Party (blue dots) and the 90% Labour Party (red dots). 80% The first chart shows the relationship 70% Epsom between the party vote result and the 60% candidate vote result. Dots above the 50% Ōhāriu grey line indicate stronger party support 40% than candidate support, and below the 30% Party vote Party line vice versa. The chart clearly shows 20% Labour performed poorly in the party vote 10% compared to the candidate vote. 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% National’s results were much more consistent between party vote and Candidate vote candidate vote with some notable outliers – Epsom and Ōhāriu – where National Party vote vs income did not strongly contest the candidate vote. 80%
70% Tāmaki The second chart shows the relationship between the party vote result and the 60% Epsom wealth of an electorate, as measured by 50% the proportion of individuals earning over 40% $100k. Neither the blue nor the red dots
30% show any significant correlation by Party vote Party 20% Tāmaki income, indicating that both National and
10% Epsom Labour achieve fairly broad support across income levels. 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% The third chart illustrates the relationship Proportion earning over $100k between the party vote result and the median age of an electorate. We can Party vote vs median age see a weak upward relationship in the blue dots indicating that older electorates 80% might favour the National Party. 70% Similarly we can see a weak downward 60% relationship in the red dots indicating
50% younger electorates favour the Labour Party. What this chart doesn’t address 40% is the difference between correlation and
Party vote Party 30% Ōtaki cause and effect i.e. does National hold 20% an ageing support base, or do 10% Coromandel preferences changes as voters grow
0% older? 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Median age The circled dots are the younger Māori electorates, which are interesting in that they show consistently high support for Labour across all seven electorates.
Towers Watson Alliance Partner
Election 2014 Page 7
NZ First vs. Conservatives The charts to the left illustrate the results Party vote vs Candidate vote for the New Zealand First Party (black 16% dots) and the Conservative Party (light Tauranga 14% blue dots). 12% Wairarapa The first chart shows the relationship 10% between the party vote result and the
8% candidate vote result. Again, dots above East Coast 6% Napier the line indicate stronger party vote Party vote Party support than candidate support. Most 4% dots are above the diagonal line 2% illustrating that both parties performed 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% better in the party vote than in the candidate vote. The Conservatives Candidate vote actually gained 3.9% of the party vote and 3.5% of the candidate vote overall Party vote vs income but this was largely due to strong support for the Conservative candidate in the 16% Napier (Garth McVicar) and East Coast 14% electorates. Interestingly, support for the 12% NZ First candidate in Tauranga remains 10% strong, long after Winston Peters last
8% stood there.
6% The cluster of black dots along the Party vote Party 4% vertical axis indicates electorates where
2% a NZ First candidate did not stand. The lack of light blue dots along the axis 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% shows that the Conservatives stood a Proportion earning over $100k candidate in almost every electorate. The second chart illustrates that support Party vote vs median age for NZ First is more concentrated in the less wealthy electorates, while the 16% Conservatives have fairly consistent 14% support across all income levels. 12% The third chart suggests that NZ First 10% support is correlated with age in that the 8% party vote is higher in older electorates, although the relationship is perhaps not
Party vote Party 6%
4% as significant as often claimed. Similarly there is a weak relationship between 2% support for the Conservative Party and 0% 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 age, where the party vote is higher in Median age older electorates.
The circled dots are the Māori electorates, which again display very consistent party vote results across all 7 electorates. Interestingly, support for NZ First in the Māori electorates is amongst the highest in the country.
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