'New Zealand Economy Appears to Be Improving' While Labour Electorates

Article No. 5709

Available on www.roymorgan.com Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles Measuring Public Opinion for over 70 Years

National electorates more likely to agree ‘New Zealand economy appears to be improving’ while Labour electorates tend to disagree Qualitative research conducted around New Zealand over the past three years reveals that National electorates are, in general, far more likely to agree with the statement that the ‘New Zealand economy appears to be improving’ than Labour electorates. This is not altogether surprising given that National have been the governing party in New Zealand since John Key came to power after the 2008 New Zealand election – but it is very good news for Key as he faces re-election in late September when he tries to win a third term as Prime Minister.

Analysing agreement with this question by electorate over the period since the

last New Zealand election (since December 2011) shows the highest E E

agreement with the statement the “New Zealand economy appears to be E E improving” is actually in the National-aligned Act NZ electorate of Epsom (56.8%) agree with the statement. Epsom is followed by the National electorates of Hamilton East (50.8%), Pakuranga (49.8%), North Shore (48.9%), Auckland Central (48.5%), Selwyn (48.4%) and East Coast Bays (48.4%). In addition, agreement is also high in the new electorates of Upper Harbour (49.8%). In contrast, agreement with this statement is lowest in primarily Labour electorates – lowest of all in Manukau East (34.4%), Dunedin South (34.4%) and Manurewa (34.6%) – all Labour electorates. In addition agreement is also low in the Labour electorates of Mangere (35.4%), Dunedin North (36.2%), West Coast-Tasman (37.1%), Hutt South (37.6%) and Mana (38.0%). Interestingly, it is also low in the National electorates of Wairarapa (34.9%), East Coast (35.4%), Northland (36.0%) and Rangitikei (38.7%) – which may be good electorates for Labour to target as it tries to win back Government on September 20. NEW ZEALAND ELECTORATES (64) & MAORI ELECTORATES (7) Epsom – 56.8 Mt. Roskill – 45.8 Christchurch Central – 42.6 Dunedin North – 36.2 Hamilton East – 50.8 New Plymouth – 45.4 Coromandel – 42.2 Northland – 36.0 Pakuranga – 49.8 Rangitata – 45.4 Mt. Albert – 42.0 Mangere – 35.4 Upper Harbour – 49.8 Invercargill – 45.3 Bay of Plenty – 41.4 East Coast – 35.4 North Shore – 48.9 Taranaki-King County – 45.1 Wigram – 41.0 Wairarapa – 34.9 Auckland Central – 48.5 Ohariu – 45.1 Maungakiekie – 40.6 Manurewa – 34.6 Selwyn – 48.4 Hamilton West – 45.0 Te Atatu – 40.4 Dunedin South – 34.4

FOR FOR IMMEDIATERELEAS East Coast Bays – 48.4 Palmerston North – 44.8 Otaki – 40.4 Manukau East – 34.4

Wellington Central – 48.3 Kaikoura – 44.8 Port Hills – 40.2 FOR FOR IMMEDIATERELEAS Clutha-Southland – 47.8 Helensville – 44.6 Napier – 39.9 Tamaki – 47.2 Nelson – 44.3 Whangarei – 39.8 Ilam – 47.1 New Lynn – 44.0 Whanganui – 39.5 MAORI ELECTORATES (7) Waikato – 46.7 Rotorua – 43.5 Rimutaka – 39.5 Hauraki-Waikato – 46.2 Waimakariri – 46.4 Waitaki – 43.5 Rongotai – 38.8 Te Tai Tokerau – 44.3 Botany – 46.4 Northcote – 43.4 Rangitikei – 38.7 Te Tai Tonga – 43.1 Papakura – 46.4 Tukituki – 43.0 Mana – 38.0 Tamaki Makaurau – 42.9 Hunua – 46.2 New Zealand Overall – 42.9 Hutt South – 37.6 Te Tai Hanuauru – 41.7 Tauranga – 46.1 Christchurch East – 42.9 Kelston – 37.4 Waiariki – 41.5 Rodney – 45.9 Taupo – 42.8 West Coast-Tasman – 37.1 Ikaroa-RawhitI – 39.0 These figures are based on interviews with 72,817 New Zealanders aged 14+ between December 2011 and April 2014. The Maori electorates are not represented in the NZ Electorate Map.

Electorate Colour Code for Parties National Labour Maori Party New Seats ACT NZ United Future Mana Party

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Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties. In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

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