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The Industryls Annual Report 2 0 1 5 t doesn’t take an Ivy League economist to we have seen this year, consumers were still explain what happens when consumers very wary about whether these conditions were have more money in their pockets, their tenable. This uneasiness appears to have waned homes’ values increase and they are more in 2015 and can be attributed to several things. MARKET confident about their employment pros- First, consumer confidence was buoyed Ipects and generally comfortable with the state of throughout the year by growth in the job market. the economy overall. They spend more money. Though the job market had expanded in Such has been the case so far in 2015 as home previous, post-recessionary years, unemploy- values headed up, unemployment continued to ment remained high enough that consumers move down and other positive factors came into were still cautious when it came to hopes for play that made average consumers feel a bit more sustained stability. comfortable opening their wallets. Throughout 2015, we saw the unemployment Of course what they did once their wallets were rate drop from 5.7 percent in January down to MEASURE 1 open is also important, and this year consumers 5.0 percent in October , the lowest rate since THE INDUSTry’s AnnuAL REPORT showed their willingness to once again spend April 2008. money to improve and maintain their homes. This rate not only represents the lowest When the year settles out, the North American unemployment in nearly 90 months, but it Retail Hardware Association (NRHA) is predict- is also much more in line with the rates the ing that these favorable economic factors should economy was posting in the four years leading translate to an increase of about 4.9 percent in up to the recession, when home improvement home improvement retail sales for 2015. sales and growth were running at their strongest The increase will bring the overall sales volume rate this decade. for the industry up to $338.6 billion this year. Next, 2015 also represented the first time in This growth continues to outpace inflation years that consistently good news was coming out and gives a strong indication that consumers of the housing market. have shaken off the recessionary shell shock and Historically, housing activity serves as an returned to more normal spending patterns on extremely accurate leading indicator for home home improvement goods and services. improvement growth, especially when you look at the areas of housing starts, existing home sales % 2015’s Recipe for Growth and home prices. We just made the recipe for growth in home In 2014 and 2015, all three of these measures improvement sales seem rather simple, but there produced strong growth. are actually many factors that affect whether or not Existing-home sales throughout 2015 are up the market will expand. And while home improve- 8.8 percent over 20142. By September, ment sales have seen measured growth for the past housing starts were at nearly an eight-year high several years, 2015 felt like the first year all of of 1.2 million3. these factors aligned. Perhaps most notably, the median existing Let’s face it; even though 2014 saw many of home price was up 6.1 percent year over the same economic factors come into play that year through September2. As prices increase, 32 HARDWARE RETAILING | December 2015 December 2015 | HARDWARE RETAILING 33 2015 MARKET MEASURE: INTRODUCTION 2015 MARKET MEASURE: INTRODUCTION Three Views of U.S. Home homeowners feel more comfortable making This growth should be fueled by the continued Improvement Sales in Billions investments in their homes, and this translates to positive economic conditions outlined above. freer spending on home improvement products. However, there are several factors industry CAG 2014-2019 = 4.1% The final ingredient in 2015’s growth recipe watchers will want to keep their eyes on that 5.1% came from factors outside of housing and could influence overall performance in either Sales growth reported employment. Weather conditions, low interest positive or negative ways. rates on consumer credit and lower gas prices On the positive side, the National by Home Depot at 400 $394.6 all contributed positive momentum for home Association of Realtors indicates that new mid year 2015. $381.3 $367.7 improvement spending. home construction is not keeping pace with $354.2 employment activity in a majority of the 350 $338.6 4 Growth Ahead? country’s major metro markets . Source: Home Depot reports $322.8 Can this pattern continue? At least for the short This slow new-home construction means that term, the answer is yes. there is both pent-up housing demand and that 300 NRHA is predicting home improvement retail the prices of homes are unnaturally inflated. sales’ growth will continue into 2016 at a rate of This will be important to watch over the near about 4.6 percent, still outpacing inflation and term. If housing starts begin to catch up with 250 retail spending in other categories. demand for growth, it could stimulate home 6.5% improvement spending. However, the negative 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 impact this growth could have on existing Sales growth 200 This growth should be home values could also have a chilling effect on reported by Source: NRHA/Hardware Retailing fueled by the continued homeowners dipping into equity for projects. Ace Hardware Corp. With 2016 being an election year, legislators at mid year 2015. 4.4% 4.4% positive economic will also be likely to curb any decisions that Increase Increase 400 5 4.4% might have a negative impact on the economy, over 2014 over 2015 Increase conditions outlined above. Source: Ace Hardware Corp. reports so interest rates and legislative changes shouldn’t 3.8% Increase play a big role in industry performance. 4 However, there are several 350 $331.9 factors industry watchers $318.0 3 will want to keep their eyes 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data through Oct. 2015 300 2 National Association of Realtors data through Oct. 2015 on that could influence 63% 2 3 U.S. Census Bureau/Trading Economics Major metro markets overall performance in either 4 National Association of Realtors, “New Home 250 Construction Trailing Job Growth in Majority of Metro where new home 1 positive or negative ways. Areas,” September 2015 construction isn’t 2015 2016 2010-2014 2016-2019 keeping pace with 200 0 Industry Sales Methodology job growth. Source: Home Improvement Research Institute Source: National Association of Realtors 400 CAG 2009-2014 = 4.0% NRHA and Hardware Retailing take a large additional data from retail and industry partners. number of factors into account when determining All of this data is combined to calculate our overall sales estimates for the industry. industry sales estimates and forecasts. 350 $318.7 We use a formula that incorporates information NRHA and Hardware Retailing’s industry 8.8% $302.2 from NRHA’s annual Cost of Doing Business estimates consider sales from all retailers 300 Year-to-year increase $281.9 Study, direct retailer research, the U.S. whose primary business is selling home $269.7 $261.8 Department of Commerce NAICS 444 sales improvement products. We do not include in existing-home sales $260.7 reports and information from other research sales from operations that do not utilize a retail through October. 250 outlets as the basis for our calculations. sales model or service only other companies. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 We then weigh this information against company Our estimates include sales through the 200 Source: National Association of Realtors reports from the industry’s publicly traded industry’s hardware stores, home centers, Source: U.S. Census Bureau not adjusted monthly and annual Retail Trade Reports *These numbers reflect the April 2014 revisions made by the U.S. Census Bureau. corporations, wholesaler sales figures and retail lumberyards and big-box outlets. 34 HARDWARE RETAILING | December 2015 December 2015 | HARDWARE RETAILING 35 2015 MARKET MEASURE: INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN 2015 MARKET MEASURE: CHAIN RESULTS CHAIN RESULTS 2014 2014-2019 2014-2019 Market Share Profile Home Improvement Top Chains: Industry Share Top Chains: Combined Performance Sales By Type of Store Outlets Sales By Month Sales No. of Stores Sales in Billions Net Sales Sales in Billions (as % of total (as % of total No. of Stores (in billions) industry) industry) Hardware Stores $40.9 Hardware Stores 19,850 January $27.4 Home Centers $203.4 Home Centers 9,720 2010 47.2% 14.4% 2010 $131.3 5,725 February $26.9 2014 Lumberyards $80.6 2014 Lumberyards 9,725 2011 49.1% 13.8% 2011 $136.7 5,441 March $27.7 TOTAL $322.8 TOTAL 39,295 April $27.2 Hardware Stores $44.1 Hardware Stores 19,825 2012 50.0% 14.7% 2012 $146.4 5,780 Home Centers $210.1 Home Centers 9,725 May $27.2 2015 Lumberyards $84.4 2015 Lumberyards 9,750 2013 50.2% 15.0% 2013 $154.8 5,885 June $27.2 TOTAL $338.6 TOTAL 39,300 2014* 49.4% 16.1% 2014* $159.4 6,308 July $28.2 Hardware Stores $45.6 Hardware Stores 19,810 2010-2014 $27.8 2010-2014 August Home Centers $220.3 Home Centers 9,735 2.2% 1.7% Compound Annual 5.0% 2.5% Percentage Point Change 2016 Lumberyards $88.3 2016 Lumberyards 9,750 Growth Rate September (p) $27.7 TOTAL $354.2 TOTAL 39,295 *For 2014, new chain stores were added and others were removed in a top chain reevaluation process. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce/ NAICS 444/Seasonally Adjusted Hardware Stores $48.8 Hardware Stores 19,800 Home Centers $228.3 Home Centers 9,740 Top Chains: Individual Performance Home Improvement 2017 Lumberyards $90.6 2017 Lumberyards 9,760 Sales Growth 2014 Sales TOTAL $367.7 TOTAL 39,300 Stores at End of 2014 Stores as of Fall 2015 2015 vs.
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