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24 HARDWARE RETAILING | December 2018 2018 Market Measure The Industry’s Annual Report hile 2018 has shaped up to be another relatively strong year for sales in the What We’ll Cover home improvement industry, we may be W facing a perception problem that could 28 Industry Breakdown temper growth in the months to come. Let’s talk about some of the positive forces that have allowed the home improvement retailing industry to once 29 Chain Results again outpace overall retailing this year. The driving force behind home improvement retail 30 Cost of Doing Business Study sales for the first half of 2018 has been the economy. Unemployment figures remain low, wages have risen and housing prices are up. Though interest rates have risen, 32 Retail Store Performance they are still low by historical standards. This good economic news translates to more consumers buying and selling homes and renovating. 34 Financial Profiles The positive housing momentum has resulted in strong performance. Every source we use to monitor the home 36 Industry Year in Review improvement market reports strong sales in 2018. The North American Retail Hardware Association (NRHA) estimates predict that industry sales for 38 Housing Market Outlook 2018 should come in at approximately $394 billion, an increase of about 5.5 percent over 2017. This number is slightly higher than we predicted 40 Economic Outlook last year, partly as a result of interest rates holding steady and also because of the way product sales 42 Canadian Retail Report were driven by record storm preparation and damage experienced in various parts of the country. It is also important to consider that we have seen, and should The information in this Market Measure report was continue to see, some upward pricing pressures on gathered by Hardware Retailing staff from a variety of many home improvement-related products. resources that are attributed throughout the feature. December 2018 | HARDWARE RETAILING 25 its total 2017 sales of $6.1 billion are still dwarfed by online sales through brick-and-mortar-based By all accounts, retailers like Home Depot, which recorded online sales of $24.9 billion in the first quarter alone, the industry is according to GlobalData Retail. shaping up to have On the Horizon another strong year The return of the housing market, solid this year, remaining employment numbers and still-steady interest rates have helped home improvement retailing a slight step ahead remain strong. However, one thing we have learned over the of overall retail sales. last few decades is that all good things must come to an end. The billion-dollar question is, will the end of the expansion period for the industry appear suddenly Looking solely at government statistics for or will we see a gradual erosion in growth? the industry, the projected figure for the year Our analysis suggests that we might be in store is relatively similar to NRHA’s, with total sales for the latter. We might start to enter a more estimated around $394.6 billion for 2018— subdued growth cycle as early as late 2019 or 2020. a 4.4 percent increase from the U.S. Census Bureau So, what are some of the factors we will need figures from last year. to watch for? Lastly, estimates from the Home Improvement How the Federal Reserve deals with interest Research Institute (HIRI) show industry sales rates will be a major concern in the months for 2018 totaling approximately $398.2 billion, ahead. According to The Conference Board, a 6.3 percent increase over last year’s performance. a global research group, “growth will encounter By all accounts, the industry is shaping up to more headwinds in 2019, especially with the have another strong year this year, remaining a Federal Reserve set to raise interest rates four slight step ahead of overall retail sales. more times by the end of next year.” For industry retailers, there are a few important And while the impact of rising interest rates points to note. Overall, it appears professional might start to blunt momentum found within purchases are growing at a much faster clip than the housing market as early as 2019, there consumer purchases. In fact, according to HIRI, is another less-tangible headwind facing the industry sales to pros will grow at about 9.9 percent industry: the wait-and-see consumer. in 2018, compared to just 4.7 percent for consumers. Wait-and-see consumers are people who, This data shouldn’t be surprising as homebuilding even with affordable housing, interest rates at a and larger remodeling projects taking place during a manageable level and a strong economic outlook, healthy economic cycle are tied to pro purchases. are still waiting to invest in the housing market At the retail level, we see a greater percentage of in earnest. home improvement sales going online. In fact, According to the National Association of Realtors, Home Depot grew its online sales by 23.1 percent “in the third quarter of 2018, 63 percent of people during the first six months of fiscal 2018, according believe that now is a good time to buy a home, to a company report. Both Home Depot and Lowe’s which is the lowest percent recorded” since 2015. have made ongoing efforts to grow their online Reluctance to buy is even more evident in consumers presence, offering services such as buy online, under the age of 34, the National Association of pick up in store. Realtors reports. Even as online sales capture more of the retail NRHA is predicting softer growth for the industry home improvement market, it’s important to over the next two or three years because of looming note that the two largest online sellers of home interest rate hikes, consumers already hedging on improvement products, Home Depot and Lowe’s, whether to buy a home and another election cycle are still anchored in the brick-and-mortar world. getting ready to ramp up in late 2019. By 2022, While Amazon has seen its sales of tools and we expect the home improvement retail market could home improvement items increase in recent years, be seeing growth in the high 3 percent range. 26 HARDWARE RETAILING | December 2018 U.S. Home Improvement Sales (in billions) Compound Annual Growth 2017-2022 = 4.5% 71% 4.4% 5.5% 4.9% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8% 500 $447.5 $464.50 400 $413.3 $430.3 of independent $394.0 $373.5 industry retailers 300 expect their sales to 200 increase moderately from 2018 to 2021. 100 Source: NRHA 2017 State of 0 Independents Conference Research 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: NRHA/Hardware Retailing Home Improvement Product Sales Performance (in billions) Compound Annual Growth 2017-2022 = 4.6% 7.2% 7.3% 6.3% 5.8% 4.1% 3.5% 3.4% 500 $469.7 400 $421.4 $438.8 $454.3 $398.2 was Home Depot’s $374.8 300 overall sales growth projection for 2018, 200 as of November. 100 Source: Home Depot Third-Quarter 2018 Financial Report 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Home Improvement Research Institute/IHS/Current Prices Home Improvement Retail Sales (% change year over year) 7.1% 5.3% 4.3% 5.4% 8.2% 4.5% 4.5% 400 $394.6 350 $349.1 $377.6 300 $331.3 was Lowe’s overall $301.6 $317.6 250 sales growth 200 projection for 150 2018 at midyear. 100 50 Source: Lowe’s Second-Quarter 0 2018 Financial Report 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: U.S. Department of Census/Monthly Retail Sales Report NAICS 444/SA December 2018 | HARDWARE RETAILING 27 Industry Breakdown 2018 2017-2022 2017-2022 Home Improvement Sales by Type of Store Sales by Month Outlets (in billions) (in billions) Hardware Stores $47.9 Hardware Stores 19,850 January $32.0 Home Centers $232.9 Home Centers 9,790 February $32.4 2017 Lumberyards $92.7 2017 Lumberyards 9,760 March $32.0 TOTAL $373.5 TOTAL 39,400 April $31.8 Hardware Stores $50.8 Hardware Stores 19,250 Home Centers $245.5 Home Centers 9,785 May $32.5 2018 Lumberyards $97.7 2018 Lumberyards 9,760 June $32.5 TOTAL $394.0 TOTAL 38,795 July $32.6 Hardware Stores $50.4 Hardware Stores 19,150 August (p) $32.9 Home Centers $257.9 Home Centers 9,730 2019 Lumberyards $105.0 2019 Lumberyards 9,700 YTD $258.8 TOTAL $413.3 TOTAL 38,580 Source: U.S. Department of Census/ Monthly Retail Sales Report NAICS 444/SA Hardware Stores $52.1 Hardware Stores 19,100 Home Centers $268.9 Home Centers 9,720 Home Improvement 2020 Lumberyards $109.3 2020 Lumberyards 9,650 Sales Growth TOTAL $430.3 TOTAL 38,470 2017 vs. 2016 Hardware Stores $54.6 Hardware Stores 19,000 January 4.6% Home Centers $279.2 Home Centers 9,680 February 4.9% 2021 Lumberyards $113.7 2021 Lumberyards 9,640 TOTAL $447.5 TOTAL 38,320 March 3.9% April 1.9% Hardware Stores $58.1 Hardware Stores 18,900 Home Centers $288.9 Home Centers 9,710 May 8.0% 2022 Lumberyards $117.5 2022 Lumberyards 9,620 TOTAL $464.5 TOTAL 38,230 June 4.5% July 3.8% Hardware Stores 3.9% Hardware Stores -4.8% Compound Annual Home Centers 4.4% Percent Home Centers -0.8% August 4.8% Growth Lumberyards 4.9% Change Lumberyards -1.4% Rate 2017-2022 TOTAL 4.5% TOTAL -3.0% YTD 4.5% 2017-2022 Source: U.S. Department of Census/ Monthly Retail Sales Report NAICS 444/SA Source: NRHA/Hardware Retailing Source: NRHA/Hardware Retailing 28 HARDWARE RETAILING | December 2018 Chain Results Market Share Profile Top Chains: Industry Share Top Chains: Combined Performance Sales No.
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