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Intershop at a Glance

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Intershop at a Glance Intershop Communications AG Sponsored Research Germany | Software & Computer Services Investment Research Company Flash Note Reason: Company results (post view) 2 August 2018 Accumulate Transition to the cloud takes its toll earlier than expected Recommendation unchanged Share price: EUR 1.75 Intershop cut its FY 2018 guidance due to lower than expected license closing price as of 01/08/2018 revenues. Although a decline in license revenues has been expected in light Target price: EUR 1.85 Target Price unchanged of the shift from an on-premise software provider to a cloud provider, the shift occurred sooner than initially expected. Also, the contract of board member Upside/Downside Potential 5.7% Mr Axel Köhler has not been extended. The cloud product seems to be Reuters/Bloomberg ISHG.DE/ISH2 GY accepted well, H1 order intake increasing by 214% yoy. We expect Market capitalisation (EURm) 61 accelerating momentum in the cloud / subscription business during the Current N° of shares (m) 35 second half of the year. We adjusted our forecasts for FY 2018, but leave our Free float 62% target price of EUR 1.85 and Accumulate rating unchanged. Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 21 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 19.21 Price high/low 12 months 1.54 / 2.23 Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 5.74/0.29/2.58 After Q1 license revenues already declined by c. 60%, Intershop again faced Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e declining demand for its on-premise offering in Q2. Therefore, it has become Sales (m) 36 34 40 increasingly difficult to achieve its FY 2018 targets. Since management was EBITDA (m) 3 (1) 4 previously assuming rising license revenues, full-year guidance was adjusted to EBITDA margin 7.9% nm 10.0% EBIT (m) 0 (3) 1 revenues “slightly below previous year” (previously: slight increase). EBIT margin 1.2% nm 3.6% Net Profit (adj.)(m) (1) (4) 1 As a reminder, as a software company switches from on-premise to a cloud ROCE 2.2% -17.7% 7.1% offering, the revenue streams change from large one-time license payments Net debt/(cash) (m) (6) (8) (8) (excluding service or maintenance revenues) to recurring, but also smaller Net Debt Equity -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 individual payments. In the early stages of this transition, software companies Net Debt/EBITDA -2.2 8.8 -1.9 Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) 8.5 (7.1) 53.6 often face a “sales gap” resulting from the different timing aspect of the revenue EV/Sales 1.4 1.6 1.3 generation. For Intershop, this sales gap now materialised earlier than EV/EBITDA 17.7 nm 13.2 anticipated, dragging on FY 2018 revenues. EV/EBITDA (adj.) 75.6 nm 30.5 EV/EBIT nm nm 37.1 The decline in revenues also affects operating profitability, which will be P/E (adj.) nm nm nm burdened by lower than originally budgeted revenues. Therefore, the P/BV 3.7 3.7 3.4 OpFCF yield -1.6% -6.2% 0.3% management now expects negative EBIT in the low single-digit EUR million Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% area for FY 2018. EPS (adj.) (0.02) (0.11) 0.03 BVPS 0.48 0.48 0.51 On the other side, H1 cloud business developed satisfactory. Q2 cloud order DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 intake (EUR 0.7m) was weaker than in Q1 (EUR 1.5m), but Q1 included one Shareholders larger deal, whereas some of the expected larger deals in Q2 are now expected Shareholder Value Management AG / Shareholder Value Beteiligungen AG 28%; Axxion SA (Luxembourg) 10%; to close in Q3 (first deal closed earlier this week). Accordingly, Intershop’s management appears optimistic to experience catch-up effects in the cloud 2.30vvdsvdvsdy business in H2. We would expect signs of accelerating growth in the cloud 2.20 business towards the end of the year given Intershop’s cloud pipeline and the 2.10 2.00 product’s rather short implementation times. 1.90 1.80 The contract of Mr Axel Köhler, Chief Sales Officer, has not been extended. As 1.70 a consequence Mr Klahn, who was appointed COO earlier this year, takes over 1.60 the duties of Mr Köhler with immediate effect. 1.50 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Okt 17 Nov 17 Dez 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mrz 18 Apr 18 Mai 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Source: Factset Despite the overall mixed news, Intershop’s shares reacted only mildly negative INTERSHOP COMMUNICATIONS AG CDAX (Rebased) now trade slightly below the close prior to the profit warning (-3%). Intershop still Analyst(s) Dustin Mildner needs to show that it successfully manages the transition to a cloud product [email protected] provider. However, given the more abrupt decline in the license business, cloud +49 69 58997-438 sales will need to further accelerate in order to achieve 2020 targets of EUR 50m sales and a 5% EBIT margin. Produced by: For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report. All ESN research is available on Bloomberg, “ESNR”, Thomson-Reuters, S&P Capital IQ, FactSet Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report) Intershop Communications AG Exhibit 1: Management guidance update Intershop Communications AG Revenues EUR m 35.8 slightly below previous year Slight increase - 34.3 -4.1% Gross profit EUR m 19.8 Slight increase = 15.5 -22.0% EBIT EUR m 0.4 negative, low single-digit million Slightly positive - -3.3 -907.7% Source: Intershop, equinet Research Exhibit 2: Changes to our estimates 2018e 2019e 2020e Old New Chg. Old New Chg. Old New Chg. Revenues 37.1 34.3 -7.5% 42.8 40.3 -5.8% 49.5 49.5 0.0% EBIT 0.5 -3.3 -756.4% 1.6 1.4 -10.4% 3.0 3.2 4.0% Net result 0.4 -3.8 -1157.8% 1.3 1.2 -10.9% 2.6 2.7 3.9% EPS 0.01 -0.11 -1157.8% 0.04 0.03 -10.9% 0.08 0.08 3.9% Source: equinet Research Exhibit 3: Updated DCF Analysis Phase I Phase II Phase III EUR m 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e Revenues 34 40 49 58 65 73 80 86 91 94 growth rate -4.1% 17.3% 22.9% 16.8% 13.2% 11.3% 9.5% 7.6% 5.7% 3.9% EBIT -3.3 1.4 3.2 4.8 6.3 7.0 7.7 8.3 8.8 9.1 EBIT margin -9.7% 3.6% 6.4% 8.3% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7% Tax 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.4 -2.6 -2.8 -2.9 Tax rate 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% Depr. & Amort. 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.9 % of sales 7.2% 6.5% 5.6% 5.3% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% Capex -2.7 -3.0 -3.4 -3.6 -3.6 -4.0 -4.4 -4.7 -5.0 -5.2 % of sales 8.0% 7.5% 6.8% 6.3% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% Change in WC 0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 % of sales -0.8% 1.4% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% Free Cash Flow -3.3 0.0 0.7 1.9 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.6 72.2 growth rate nm -99.4% nm nm 77.5% 16.5% 13.5% 11.1% 9.0% 7.0% 2.0% Present Value FCF -3.2 0.0 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 29.5 PV Phase I 1 Risk free rate 3.50% Targ. equity ratio 90% PV Phase II 12 Premium Equity 5.00% Beta 1.4 PV Phase III 29 Premium Debt 5.00% WACC 9.97% Enterprise value 42 Sensitivity Growth in phase III - Net Debt (Cash) -6 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% - Pension Provisions 0 8.97% 1.93 1.99 2.07 2.15 2.26 - Minorities & Peripherals 0 9.47% 1.82 1.88 1.94 2.01 2.10 + MV of financial assets 0 WACC 9.97% 1.73 1.78 1.83 1.89 1.96 - Paid-out dividends for last FY 0 10.47% 1.65 1.69 1.74 1.79 1.85 +/- Other EV items 16 10.97% 1.58 1.61 1.65 1.70 1.75 Equity value 64 Number of shares 34.9 Value per share (€) 1.85 Current Price (€) 1.76 Upside 5% Source: equinet Research Page 2 Intershop Communications AG Investment case in six charts Exhibit 4: Intershop offers a competitive solution... Exhibit 5: …with expandable market acceptance market share in top 1,000 German online shops Magento 142 Oxid Eshop 85 Shopware 64 Hybris 53 Demandware 32 osCommerce 29 IBM Websphere 20 Intershop 19 PlentyMarkets 16 xt:Commerce 13 Novomind 13 not identified / other 514 0 200 400 600 Source: Forrester, August 2017 Source: iBusiness, EHI, equinet Research Exhibit 6: With the help of Microsoft… Exhibit 7: …Intershop targets the transition to the cloud… EUR m 15 12 9 6 3 0 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e Licenses (E) Cloud and Subscription (E) Source: Intershop company presentation Source: Intershop, equinet Research Exhibit 8: …and the return to growth Exhibit 9: As an add-on ISH might be a M&A candidate Year of Investor Sales & EBIT margin Buyer Target EUR m transaction type 60 10% 50 5% 2018 Adobe Systems Magento strategic 40 2018 Salesforce.com CloudCraze strategic 0% 2016 Oracle NetSuite strategic 30 -5% 2016 Salesforce.com Demandware strategic 20 2015 Permira Magento financial -10% 10 2014 Siris Capital Digital River financial 0 -15% 2013 SAP Hybris strategic 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2011 Oracle ATG strategic Revenue EBIT margin (rhs) 2011 eBay GSI Commerce strategic 2011 eBay Magento strategic Source: Intershop, equinet Research Source: Factset, equinet Research Page 3 Intershop Communications AG Intershop at a glance Exhibit 10: Intershop at a glance Business units Licenses Maintenance Cloud / Subscription Services Intershop Commerce Suite builds the core of the product offering.
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