PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DEL ECUADOR FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS EXACTAS Y NATURALES ESCUELA DE CIENCIAS BIOLÓGICAS Effects of future climate change and habitat loss in the distribution of frog species in the Ecuadorian Andes Tesis previa a la obtención del título de Magíster en Biología de la Conservación DAYANA GABRIELA BARRAGÁN ALTAMIRANO Quito, 2015 iii Certifico que la tesis de Maestría en Biología de la Conservación de la candidata Dayana Gabriela Barragán Altamirano ha sido concluida de conformidad con las normas establecidas; por lo tanto, puede ser presentada para la calificación correspondiente. Firma de Director de Tesis Fecha: 27 diciembre de 2015 iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study has benefited from two valuable reviewers Veronica Crespo and Santiago Mena, who generously contributed with observations to improve this study. We also want to thank Santiago Burneo for guidance on the ecological niche modeling section, and Julio Sanchez, for his guidance on the section of statistical data analysis. We want to thank Damian Nicolalde for facilitating the data base of species occurrence records and Pablo Venegas for his assistance in taxonomic identification. We acknowledge Francisco Prieto, Danilo Granja, Janeth Delgado, Carlos Ponce (Ministerio del Ambiente), Alejandro Oviedo (Ministerio de Transporte y Obras Públicas), Pamela Hidalgo, and Francisco Moscoso who generously authorized and shared geographical information useful to perform the predictive habitat loss model. We want to thank Luis Camacho who helped to review the manuscript. Finally, Sean McCartney, Michelle Andrews (Clark Labs Technical Support), Santiago Silva (Centro de Recursos IDRISI Ecuador) offered their assistance during the predicting habitat loss modeling. v TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................................. 9 2. RESUMEN ............................................................................................................................................. 10 3. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 11 4. MATERIALS AND METHODS ............................................................................................................ 14 4.1 Effects of climate change in species distributions........................................................................... 14 4.1.1 Species sampling .................................................................................................................... 14 4.1.2 Species current distributions .................................................................................................. 15 4.1.3 Species distributions under climate change ............................................................................ 17 4.1.4 Effects of climate change in species distributions data analysis ............................................ 18 4.2 Effects of climate change and habitat loss in species distributions ................................................. 19 4.2.1 Predictive model of habitat loss ............................................................................................. 19 4.2.2 Species distributions under climate change and habitat loss .................................................. 21 4.3 Spatial patterns in the effect of climate change under habitat lossin species distributions ............. 22 4.4 Changes in conservation status as a result of climate change and habitat loss in 2050 .................. 23 5. RESULTS ............................................................................................................................................... 24 5.1 Effects of climate change in species distributions........................................................................... 24 5.2 Effects of climate change and habitat loss in species distributions ................................................. 24 5.3 Spatial patterns in the effect of climate change under habitat loss in species distributions ............ 25 5.4 Changes in conservation status as a result of climate change and habitat loss in 2050 .................. 26 6. DISCUSION ........................................................................................................................................... 27 6.1 Effects of climate change and habitat loss in species distributions ................................................. 27 6.2 Spatial patterns in the effect of climate change under habitat loss in species distributions ............ 29 6.3 Effects of climate change in species distributions........................................................................... 30 6.4 Changes in conservation status as a result of climate change and habitat loss in 2050 .................. 30 7. LITERATURE CITED ........................................................................................................................... 32 8. FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................ 41 9. TABLES ................................................................................................................................................. 49 10. APPENDIX ......................................................................................................................................... 55 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Frequency distribution of the proportion of change in the area of the current ecological niche of endemic frogs species in the Ecuadorian Andes by 2050. Four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios of climate change are shown………………………………………………………………………………………41 Figure 2. Net difference in the effects of Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (effects of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 – effects of Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) in the proportion of the area of current ecological niche of endemic frogs species in the Ecuadorian Andes by 2050. ………………………………………………………………………………………42 Figure 3. Proportions of change in the area of distribution of endemic frogs species of the Ecuadorian Andes by 2050. Four dispersal scenarios and four climate change models are shown. ………………………………………………………………………………….…43 Figure 4. Frequency of endemic frogs species current distribution under habitat loss in the year 2008 in the Ecuadorian Andes…………………………………………………….....44 Figure 5. Change in habitat loss by the year 2050 in Ecuador based on the land cover changes in the year 2000 and 2008 (Ministerio del Ambiente, 2012). ……………………45 Figure 6. Proportions of change in the area of current distribution of endemic frogs species of the Ecuadorian Andes by 2050. No-dispersal scenario and universal scenario under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 with and without habitat loss are shown…………………………………………………46 Figure 7. Proportion of change in species richness of endemic frogs species in the Ecuadorian Andes by 2050. Four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios of vii climate change are shown assuming universal dispersal of the species. Dark grey represents habitat loss extracted by 2050……………………………………………………………47 Figure 8. Change in absolute species richness of endemic frogs species in the Ecuadorian Andes by 2050. Four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios of climate change are shown assuming universal dispersal of the species. Dark grey represents habitat loss extracted by 2050…………………………………………………………………………48 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Wilcoxon tests analysis of the proportion of change (current species distribution ÷ future ecological niche model under climate change and dispersal scenarios) in the distribution area of endemic frogs species in the Ecuadorian Andes by 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathways and dispersal scenarios…………………………49 Table 2. Land cover categories of the habitat loss map by the year 2050 in Ecuador and the Ecuadorian Andes.…………………………………………………………………………50 Table 3. Spearman correlations between the proportion of change in species richness of endemic frogs of the Ecuadorian Andes and bioclimatic variables under climate change and habitat loss in 2050. Samples were taken from 500 randomly generated localities throughout the Ecuadorian Andes…………………………………………………………51 Table 4. Spearman correlations between change in number of species of endemic frogs of the Ecuadorian Andes and bioclimatic variables under climate change and habitat loss in 2050. Samples were taken from 500 randomly generated localities throughout Ecuadorian Andes………………………………………………………………………………………52 Table 5. Categories of conservation status based on the B1 criterion of the IUCN Red List (UICN, 2012) of endemic frogs species of the Ecuadorian Andes. Analysis based on current distributions and 2050 distributions according to predictions of climate change and habitat loss…………………………………………………………………………………53 9 1. ABSTRACT The biodiversity of the tropical Andes is threatened by climate change and habitat loss. Many studies have focused in the future effects of climate change on species distribution and conservation but few have included the effects habitat loss in their predictive studies. In this study we evaluated the combined effects of these two threats in the future distributions of endemic frogs species of the Ecuadorian Andes to the year 2050. We used ecological