Foreword In response to a request from the Government of Kazakhstan, the Government of Japan decided to conduct “The Study on Earthquake Disaster Risk Management for Almaty City in the Republic of Kazakhstan” and entrusted the Study to the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). JICA dispatched a study team headed by Mr. Osamu NISHII of OYO International Corporation in association with Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. and Aero Asahi Corporation during the period from August 2007 to June 2009. In collaboration with Kazakhstan counterparts, the study team conducted the field survey and held a series of discussions with the officials concerned of the Government of Kazakhstan. After the team returned to Japan, further studies were made and then the report was finally completed. I hope that this report will contribute to the earthquake disaster risk management in Almaty city and to the enhancement of the friendship between our two countries. Finally, I wish to express my sincere appreciation to the officials concerned of the Government of Kazakhstan for their close cooperation extended to the Study Team. September, 2009 Izumi TAKASHIMA Vice-President Japan International Cooperation Agency Letter of Transmittal September 2009 Mr. Izumi TAKASHIMA Vice President Japan International Cooperation Agency We are pleased to submit to you the final report on the Study on Earthquake Disaster Risk Management for Almaty City in the Republic of Kazakhstan. This report summarizes the study conducted in the Republic of Kazakhstan, during the period from July 2007 to September 2009, and has been prepared according to the contract between JICA and the Consortium of OYO International Corporation, Nippon Koei Co., Ltd., and Aero Asahi Corporation. The final report consists of a summary report, main reports, sector report, and a collection of drawings: the main reports describe the results from an evaluation on earthquake risks faced by Almaty City, and a comprehensive earthquake disaster risk management plan as well as community-based earthquake disaster risk management plan created for dealing with these risks; the sector reports pull together a variety of findings obtained in the course of creating these plans; and the collection of drawings includes estimated damage maps, community-based risk management maps, and other important maps developed as part of the Study. We hope that the outcomes of the final report will contribute to an improved disaster risk management scheme vital for mitigating earthquake risk levels in Almaty City, the Republic of Kazakhstan. In closing, we would like to express our heartfelt gratitude to JICA, the Advisory Committee, the Japanese Embassy in Kazakhstan, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, other donors, NGOs, and our counterpart, the Department for Mobilization Preparation, Civil Defense and Disaster Response of Almaty City, and other parties concerned, for their tremendous support and cooperation extended during our endeavor. We hope that the Study will open up another path in deepening the close and cordial ties between the two countries. Very truly yours, Osamu Nishii Project Manager The Study on Earthquake Disaster Risk Management for Almaty City in the Republic of Kazakhstan OYO International Corporation OUTLINE OF THE STUDY Outline of the Study 1. Background of the Study The organization for implementing the Study is as follows. Study Title: The Study on Earthquake Disaster Risk Management for Almaty City in the Republic of Kazakhstan Counterpart Agency: Almaty City Disaster Management Department Study Period: August 2007-September 2009 Government of Kazakhstan Government of Japan Working Group Almaty City JICA Advisory Committee Study調査実施グループ Implementing Body Almaty City Disaster アルマティ市防災局 JICA Study Team Management Department Figure 1.1 Operation of the Study The Study aimed to “reduce damage by possible earthquakes that may hit Almaty City” and was conducted for the following objectives. - Prepare an Earthquake Disaster Risk Management Plan based on damage estimation in order to reduce earthquake damage in Almaty City. - Prepare a Community-level Disaster Management Plan through preparation of Disaster Management Maps and conducting Comunity-level disaster management activities in Pilot Areas. - Transfer relevant technologies to the counterpart agencies of Kazakhstan through the implementation of the Study The area to be covered by the Study (Study Area) extended for approximately 347 km2 of the Almaty City. First, the Study Team estimated earthquake risks in Almaty City by the seismic microzoning method, then produced earthquake disaster scenarios, hazard maps, and risk maps as our outputs. These outputs provided the foundation for formulating an Earthquake Disaster Risk Management Plan for Almaty City. Also, the Study Team put together a Community-Based Earthquake - 1 - FINAL REPORT VOL I SUMMARY Disaster Risk Management Plan through community-based activities conducted in pilot areas. Figure 1.2 summarizes the tasks carried out and the entire flow of the Study. Flow of the Study Phase 1 （August 2007-June 2008) PhaPhasese 2 2 (（JuJulyly 2 02008-July08 – Sep .2009 2009) Collection /evaluation of existing data Selection of Pilot Areas Preparation of base map Preparation of Disaster Risk Maps in Pilot Processing and analysis of Areas geology/earthquake data Conducting Earthquake Disaster Education and Development of GIS Database Training in Pilot Areas Hazard Assessment Community-Level Earthquake Disaster Risk Vulnerability Assessment and Damage Management Planning Estimation for Buildings, Infrastructures and Formulation of Almaty City Earthquake Lifeline Facilities Disaster Risk Management Plan Preparation of Earthquake Disaster Scenario Capacity Development for Concerned Preparation of Hazard Maps Earthquake Disaster Management Authorities of Preparation of Risk Maps Almaty City Seminar(1) Disaster Drills Seminar(2) Figure 1.2 Flow of the Study - 2 - OUTLINE OF THE STUDY 2. Evaluation of earthquake hazards and risks in Almaty City and preparation of Earthquake Disaster Scenario 2.1 Collection of information, development of base map and GIS databases (1) Collection of information Table 2.1 lists up various sorts of information gathered about natural and social conditions. Table 2.1 List of materials and data obtained Topographic maps Satellite imagery, existing maps, etc. Earthquakes Earthquake catalogue, strong-motion seismograph monitoring log, faults maps, record of earthquake damage in the past, etc. Soil/geology Geological maps, Boring data, etc. Buildings Data on registered houses at the real estate center, Existing GIS data at the Rescue Center, 2007 Almaty City Statistics White Paper, etc. infrastructure components Road network, Bridge Diagnosis results, materials for transportation, etc. Lifeline Statistical data on the lengths of water supply and sewer pipelines, the length of gas pipeline and high- and mid-volta peowerlines. The above network diagrams were downloaded from the City's official website Demographics, No. of houses 1999 Census, 2007 Almaty City Statistics White Paper (2) Development of base map and development of GIS databases First, 1/10,000 topographic map data and GIS databases of Almaty City were prepared plotting the existing topographic maps into digital form, and the digitized data were corrected to reflect the chronological changes based on satellite imagery(QuickBird). Then, GIS databases were developed with data of scope of survey, scope of satellite imagery (QuickBird), 500m grid, administrative boundaries, micro regions, water supply, sewerage, gas supply, power cables, roads, bridges, hazardous substances, boring sites. 2.2 Assessment of Seismic Hazard (1) Scenario earthquakes In the Study, the following three major earthquakes that inflicted significant damage to Almaty City in the past 150 years were assumed to recur. - 1887 (M7.3): Verny Earthquake (Approximately 20 km southwest of the City. 236 deaths across the city area at that time.) - 1889 (M8.3): Chilik Earthquake (Approximately 100 km east northeast of the City. No death across the city area at that time.) - 1911 (M8.2): Kemin Earthquake (Approximately 40 km south of the City. 44 deaths across the city area at that time.) - 3 - FINAL REPORT VOL I SUMMARY (2) Earthquake motion at the ground surface Earthquake motion at the ground surface in the three scenario earthquakes was estimated as follows. - In the Verny Earthquake scenario, 77% of the city area was subject to MSK8, and 23% to MSK 9. - In the Chilik Earthquake scenario, almost the whole city area was subject to MSK 7. - In the Kemin Earthquake scenario, almost the whole city area was subject to MSK 8. (3) Hazard Assessment The evaluation result of liquefaction danger level and slopes as hazard is as follows. - The liquefaction danger level in the Study Area is generally low; however, liquefaction will become a concern.around - There are some high-risk slopes along the Small Almaty River in the city area. 2.3 Estimation results Table 2.2 shows the estimation results for building damage human damage bridge damage and lifeline damage as to each of the three scenario earthquakes. Table 2.2 Estimation results No. of bridges No. of heavily-damaged houses and Scenario Human damages(No. of persons) with high collapsed houses earthquake possibility of Collective Individual Death Injury collapsing Verny 990 24,400 22,000 28,000 18 earthquake Chilik 80 5,200 2,000 2,000 6 earthquake Kemin 430 15,200 9,000 11,000 11 earthquake Water pipes Ave. No. Sewers Ave. No. of Length of gas pipes length of main power Scenario earthquake of points (locations) points (locations) damaged transmission line damaged damaged （km） damaged (km) Verny 500 600 600 3 earthquake Chilik almost none almost none almost none almost none earthquake Kemin 100 100 400 0.3 earthquake The estimation result of damage by fires and spreading of fires were as follows. - If fires occur in conjunction with an earthquake and spread without any fire-fighting activity in place, the maximum number of houses destructed by fire would be approximately 6,500 with a wind speed of 3 m/sec (10.8 km/h) or approximately 13,000 with a wind speed of 15 m/sec (28.8 km/h).