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Modeling Recovery of Railway System After Earthquakes

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Modeling Recovery of Railway System After Earthquakes Budapest University of Technology and Economics Faculty of Transportation Engineering and Vehicle Engineering Department of Aeronautics, Naval Architect and Railway Vehicles Modeling recovery of railway system after earthquakes A dissertation submitted by: Sergey Kinzhikeyev In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Supervisors: Prof. Dr. Jozsef Rohacs Dr. – Habil Anita Boros Budapest, 2020 Sergey Kinzhikeyev Modeling recovery of railway system after earthquakes Abstract Railways are large critical (infrastructure) systems. They play a deterministic role in supporting societal mobility, economy, and state strategic defence. Current earthquake response practice demonstrates that the railway is better monitored and has a better potential for fast recovery, and as a rule may have less damage compared to other means of transportation. Therefore, railroads might be returned to operational state quicker. Railways in general – especially in regions where the road systems are less developed– can support disaster management very well. The overall objective of this thesis is to developing models and methodology for active adaptive response to earthquake damage to railways. By more detailed definition of this overall objectives the following tasks had been identified: (i) study the role of railway in disaster response, (ii) analysis of the railway damage and recovery processes, (iii) investigation and developing the required models and (iv) creating and testing the concept of active adaptive response management methodology focused on the fast recovery of railroads in accordance with the operational levels. The general model of response is a combination of (i) a probabilistic model of railway system damage caused by earthquake, (ii) a Markov model of damage and recovery, (iii) a probabilistic model of aftershocks, (iv) a statistical model of secondary effects, (v) impact models of management supporting actions and (vi) response process models. The concept validation is based on the simulations. The described response management is recommended to be implemented into the general disaster management procedures. The major results of the study can be summarized in the following: the role of railway systems in the (earthquake) response management should be considerably improved, because it is underestimated today its damage is moderate and it can be quickly recovered to the operational (usable) level; the extensive literature survey performed and analysed models resulted to definition a general indicator of railway damage as relative unusable track length (like a parameter of the lost capacity) and developing a series of models describing the railway damage – recovery processes; creating an active adaptive response to earthquake damage to railways based on recurring cycles of the zero + six + one steps, including semi empirical situation awareness – evaluation – decision making between each steps, that is supported by the discussed sub-models employing different theoretical, semi-practical calculations and simulations; the introduced methodology had been applied to simulations and concept validation tests including use of available historical data about railway damages caused by earthquakes and fast recovery, using the developed sub-models and followed experts’ recommendations advising possible decisions in different simulated situations. The developed methodology will significantly reduce the number of deaths in the earthquake zone, since the dynamics of the number of deaths caused by earthquakes depends directly on the scale and pace of the rescue operations. Key words: earthquake, disaster/emergency management, railway systems, railway damage, response and recovery modelling. 2 Sergey Kinzhikeyev Modeling recovery of railway system after earthquakes Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 9 1. Role of railway in disaster response ............................................................................................. 13 1.1. Emergency situations – emergency / disaster management ...................................... 13 1.2. Regulation of the disaster management ..................................................................... 17 1.3. Earthquake damage and response .............................................................................. 25 1.4. Damage and recovery of railways ............................................................................. 29 2. Evalation and development of the sub-models ............................................................................ 39 2.1. Possible modelling ..................................................................................................... 39 2.2. Probabilistic model of railway system damage caused by earthquakes .................... 42 2.3. Probabilistic model of aftershocks ............................................................................ 47 2.4. Statistical model of secondary effects ................. Hiba! A könyvjelző nem létezik.52 2.5 Situation awareness – decision making………………………………………………..42 3. Active adaptive active adaptive response to earthquake damage to railways. .Hiba! A könyvjelző nem létezik.57 3.1. Concept development .......................................... Hiba! A könyvjelző nem létezik.57 3.2. General management process .............................. Hiba! A könyvjelző nem létezik.61 3.3. Futher works ........................................................ Hiba! A könyvjelző nem létezik.74 3.4. Simulation methodology results .......................... Hiba! A könyvjelző nem létezik.77 4. Testing, concept verification and validation of the developed model ...... Hiba! A könyvjelző nem létezik. 4.1. Model parametrisation and testing ............................................................................ 79 4.2. Concept verification ............................................ Hiba! A könyvjelző nem létezik.81 4.3. Concept validation ............................................... Hiba! A könyvjelző nem létezik.87 Summary – theses ................................................................................................................................. 95 List of Figures Figure 1. Worldwide earthquakes (M5+, 1960-2007) and plate boundaries (red 8 [divergent boundaries], blue [transform boundaries], and yellow [convergent boundaries] lines; map generated using (Jones, 2020). 3 Sergey Kinzhikeyev Modeling recovery of railway system after earthquakes Figure 2. System and tasks of emergency management (extended active system) 13 (Rohacs, 2004) Figure 3. C-C4ISR stands for Collaborative & Command & Control, 14 Communications, Cloud, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance as foreseen by Huawei (Goulding, 2020) Figure 4. Enabling technologies for IoT of railways (Fraga-Lamas, Fernández- 15 Caramés, & Castedo, 2017) Figure 5. The Structure of legislation support of disaster management in Kazakhstan 20 (КЧС, 2017) Figure 6. The structure of the state system of warning and emergency response in 23 Kazakhstan Figure 7. Map of a region in Kazakhstan with peak of ground acceleration (PKA) for 25 probability of exceeding 10% during 50 years (it is a fragment from figure published by (Silacheva, Kulbayeva, & Kravchenko, Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Kazakhstan and Almaty city in peak ground accelerations, 2018)) Figure 8. Risk map of Kazakhstan's exposure to natural risks (МВД КЧС, 2017) 25 Figure 9. Mudflow hazard map of the Big Almaty Lake (Чс-ник.kz, 2020) 26 Figure 10. Map of risks of exposure to emergencies in the Almaty region (ЧС- 26 ник.KZ, 2019) Figure 11. Number of earthquakes in Almaty (Mikhailova, N.N.; Sokolova, I.N.; 27 Velikanov, A.Y.; Sokolov, A.N., 2015) (Kinzhikeyev, S.; Restas A., 2019) Figure 12. The proportion of individual modes of transport in the total freight turnover 29 (Макаров & Макаров, 2015) Figure 13. Incidence of Damage to Japanese Railways by Natural Disasters (Tatsuo 30 Nogashi; Toshishige Fujii, 2000) Figure 14. Accidents on railway transport (Комстат МНЭ РК, 2018) 31 Figure 15. The number of dead and wounded in railroad accidents in the regions of 31 the Republic of Kazakhstan a.) dead b.) wounded (Kinzhikeyev.S, 2018) Figure 16. The railway system and its major (critical) elements 35 4 Sergey Kinzhikeyev Modeling recovery of railway system after earthquakes Figure 17. The maximum distance from the epicenter to the railway facilities that were 36 damaged (drawn by using data from (William & Byers, 2004), (Шекербеков, Разрушение транспортных сооружений при сильных землятресениях прошлого с 1895-1988 годы, 2010)) Figure 18. Changes in usability during response and recovery 38 Figure 19. Division of possible space of relative unusable track length 39 Figure 20. Seismological observation system in Kazakhstan (Mikhailova N. , 2016) 42 Figure 21. Seismological observation system in Japan (Милаярова И., 2017) 42 Figure 22. Observed fractions of collapse as a function of IM (intensity measue, 44 namely a_g) and an estimated fragility function (Baker & Eeri, 2019) Figure 23. Using GIS supports the estimation of the possible secondary effects, 46 damages and determination of the relative unusable track length Figure 24. Modelling the railway stations’ recovery
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