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Valustrat Dubai Real Estate Review Q1 2019

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Valustrat Dubai Real Estate Review Q1 2019 Real Estate Market 1st Quarter | 2019 Review Real VPI Residential VPI Residential VPI Office Estate Capital Values Rental Values Capital Values Performance -12.4% -9.0% -14.4% Q1 Y-o-Y Q1 Y-o-Y Q1 Y-o-Y Market Intelligence. VPI Simplified. ValuStrat Price Index Source: ValuStrat Source: ValuStrat Source: ValuStrat Key Indicators Source: REIDIN, DTCM, ValuStrat Residential Off-Plan Residential Off-Plan Residential Ready Residential Ready Residential Sales Ticket Size Sales Volume Sales Ticket Size Sales Volume Rents 1.59m 4,418 1.64m 2,677 94,929 AED Transactions AED Transactions AED p.a. 24.6% 4.8% 7.0% -0.9% -1.9% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Hotel Average Hotel Office Sales Office Sales Office Daily Rate Occupancy Ticket Size Volume Rents 465 78% 1.05m 387 968 AED Jan-Dec 2018 Jan-Dec 2018 AED Transactions AED/sq m p.a. -5.5% 2.0% -17.5% 64.0% -1.0% Y-o-Y Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Increase Stable Decline 1 | Dubai Real Estate Market 1st Quarter 2019 Review VPI ValuStrat Price Index Residential The valuation-based ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) for Dubai’s residential capital values, VPI - Dubai Residential Capital Values displayed an overall 12.4% annual fall in 16 Apartment and 10 Villa Locations [Base: Jan 2014=100] capital values, with quarterly declines of 3.2%. This downward trend resulted in 27.1% 110 citywide capital value loss since the peaks of 98.0 97.9 97.5 97.5 97.0 100 96.7 96.2 95.4 mid-2014. All established freehold locations 92.7 89.5 monitored by the VPI witnessed price drops 90 87.0 84.0 since the last quarter, ranging from 1.8% to 81.5 5.2%. On an annual basis, 5 out of 26 locations 80 measured saw single-digit declines, villas in 70 Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills and Al Furjan, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 as well as apartments in Dubai Sports City 2016 2017 2018 2019 and Jumeirah Village Circle. Capital values dropped more than 16% annually for villas Source: ValuStrat located in Jumeirah Islands, apartments in Palm Jumeirah, International City, Discovery VPI - Dubai Residential Rental Values Gardens, Business Bay, and The Greens. 16 Apartment and 10 Villa Locations [Base: Q1 2014=100] The Dubai VPI now also analyses residential 110 rentals. The rental VPI is a 100 index with a 98.8 97.6 98.7 97.4 base set for Q1 2014, it monitors 16 apartment 100 90.1 90.4 87.7 85.6 and 10 villa locations within Dubai’s freehold 84.0 90 82.7 market and compares similar units within 78.8 78.0 76.5 those locations on a quarterly basis. The Q1 80 2019 residential rental VPI in Dubai stood at 76.5 points, declining 23.5% since 2014, 70 softening 1.9% quarterly and 9% annually. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dubai’s net yields averaged 5.5%, with 2016 2017 2018 2019 apartments at 5.7% and villas at 4.5%. The Source: ValuStrat average residential occupancy rate stood at 88%. VPI - Dubai Office Capital Values 5 Office Locations Office [Base: Q1 2015=100] The first quarter ValuStrat Price Index for 110 Dubai’s office capital values stood at 74 points, suggesting that average capital values are 26% 100 91.8 92.0 91.5 91.3 lower than the same period during the base 91.4 88.7 90.0 89.3 90 86.5 82.7 year 2015, 14.4% lower than the same period 80.7 80 77.7 last year and 4.7% below the previous quarter. 74.0 Office space in Jumeirah Lake Towers witnessed the highest annual drop of 16.7% 70 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 and 6.5% QoQ, Barsha Heights was second in line with losses of 15% year on year and 7.7% 2016 2017 2018 2019 QoQ. Downtown Dubai and Dubai International Source: ValuStrat Financial Centre (DIFC) saw the least quarterly declines of 1.4% and 2.1%, respectively. For more details, please visit www.valustrat.com/vpi www.valustrat.com | 2 Macro-Economic Snapshot • Amidst a challenging economy, optimism was Dubai Population observed among companies in the emirate, with a recent survey from the Department of Economic Development reporting 59% 3,235,000 expected economic growth in Q1 2019, up 18% 2019-Q1 3,186,000 YoY 2018 • Dubai’s economy grew 1.94% for full year 2018 2,976,000 with its real GDP valued at AED 398 billion, as 2017 per latest report from Dubai Statistics Centre 2,699,000 2016 • Real estate activities rose 7% and contributed 25% of overall economic growth last year 2,447,000 2015 • The United States of America was the top foreign investor in Dubai, making more than 2,327,000 AED 14.3 billion (USD 3.9 billion) foreign direct 2014 investment in 2018 according to Dubai Investment Agency (Dubai FDI) 2,214,000 2013 • Dubai Customs announced free zone trade jumped 23% YoY to AED 532 billion. However, 2,106,000 overall non-oil foreign trade displayed no 2012 change and was valued at AED 1.3 trillion • In conjunction with directives to ease doing business in the emirate, Dubai’s Department of Finance issued five economic and financial Source: Dubai Statistics Centre initiatives to support Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Consumer Price Index vs. Housing Index January 2016 – YTD • Population reached more than 125 3.2 million as of March 2019 120 • Dubai International Airport 115 (DXB) handled more than 89 110 million travellers in 2018, up 1.% and remained world’s 105 busiest airport in terms of 100 international passengers 95 • As of February, citywide Jul Jul Jul Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Jan Jan Jan Jan Jun Jun Jun Feb Feb Feb Feb Sep Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Nov Nov Nov Aug Aug Aug Mar Mar Mar May May May inflation rate sank 3.9% YoY and dipped 0.5% MoM 2016 2017 2018 2019 General Index (2014=100) • Housing and Utilities Expenses Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels plummeted 6.1% YoY and 0.5 Source: Dubai Statistics Centre MoM 3 | Dubai Real Estate Market 1st Quarter 2019 Review Residential Supply • Last year, recorded actual completions Residential Supply reached 20,364 units. Equivalent to nearly 2016-2020 45% of the initial total projections (’000 UNITS) • For 2019, expected supply was adjusted downwards to 42,176 apartments and villas. This number is 54% less than the preliminary supply forecast, more delays are expected during the year, mitigating excessive residential supply concerns 2020E • More than half of the remaining new build 14.2 56.7 591 apartments this year will be located in 2019E 7.7 34.5 549 Business Bay, Jumeirah Village Circle, 549 2018 Dubailand, Dubai Silicon Oasis and Dubai Sports City 529 2017 • A little over 70% of villas to be handed over 497 2016 this year are concentrated in two locations, Dubailand and MBR City • Eight off plan projects were announced during Existing the quarter, promising 774 apartments and New Apartments* 1,201 villas by 2023. Including Dubai Holding's New Villas* Burj Jumeirah Tower, Emaar’s Golf Grove and *May be subject to significant downward adjustment Arabian Ranches 3, Cherrywoods and Central Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, REIDIN, MEED Projects, ValuStrat Park at City Walk by Meraas Residential Sales • As prices kept on falling, sales volumes Ready Sales Volumes continued to rally for last 6 months perhaps with an anticipation of a bottoming-out market, as the first quarter saw off-plan sales 8.5% -0.9% increase 21.1% YoY and ready properties sales Last Year Last Quarter improve 8.5% YoY • Q1 saw the highest share (26%) of ready villa purchases priced between AED 1M - AED 2M since 2016 • Ticket sizes for both ready and off-plan saw considerable quarterly growth rates, off-plan up 24.6% and ready grew 4.8% Off-plan Sales Volumes • The average transacted ticket size for off-plan was AED 1.59 million and for ready properties 21.1% 4.8% AED 1.64 million Last Year Last Quarter • The median transacted price for ready apartments stood at AED 9,365 per sq m (AED 870 per sq ft), down 13.6% YoY and 1.4% QoQ • For ready villas, the median transacted price was AED 9,623 per sq m (894 per sq ft), down 8.7% YoY and 0.7% QoQ Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat www.valustrat.com | 4 Residential Rents • Overall residential asking rents fell 9.0% YoY Residential Asking Rents • However, on a quarterly basis asking rents -15.1% -9.0% dipped 1.9% Last 2 Years Last Year • Compared to the same period last year, listed rents were down 9.5% for apartments and 8.1% for villas • Average annual rents for 2-bed villas stood at AED 118,000, 3-beds at AED 164,000, and 4-bedroom villas remained at AED 217,000 -3.0% -1.9% Last 6 Months Last Quarter • Average rents per annum for studio apartments were AED 51,000, 1-bed at AED 71,000, 2-bed was AED 101,000, and 3-bedroom apartments were AED 132,000 • Residential occupancy in Dubai is estimated Source: REIDIN, ValuStrat at 88% Office Supply • An estimated total of 112,437 sq m (1.2 Office Supply million sq ft) gross leasable area (GLA) 2016-2020 was completed last year, bringing total (Million sq m GLA) office GLA at start of 2019 to 8.8 million sq m (95 million sq ft) • Two notable office buildings were completed during Q1, Huawei HQ with an estimated 8,175 sq m (88,000 sq ft) 0.15 GLA and Innovation Hub having 148,645 0.48 sq m (1.6 million sq ft) GLA.
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