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Home , Nicholas Amer, Rached Ghannouchi, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali

54 Med.2012 Keys main trading partner, investor and source of technol- plement or an alternative to links with Europe, still its com- a prove will it whether and maintained be can role leadership remains regional nascent question ’s whether The forces. political emerging to out reaching and region the in allies former from itself distancing in constraints external and internal of free relatively been has NATO,government Turkish The to commitment renewed through themissiledefenceshield. its and , as a regional shock absorber, notably with regard to role its reflecting striking, particularly is ministration ad- Obama the with rapprochement Turkey’s settlement talks. Cyprus the of failure the or Israel rift with the freedoms, media over example for Turkey, to related concern of sources other position ondary important geostrategic actor and relegated to a sec- an as re-emergence Turkey’s to led uprisings Arab cumstances in and the Middle East. The cir- political changed to response in policy Turkish of evolution the on focuses paper this actors, tional key interna- of reaction the briefly examining After fleet-footed inadaptingtonewrealities. plicit with the com- degrees different to been had All alibrating. Russia, Turkey, Israel and others quickly needed rec- States, United the previously countries, European by region pursued this towards policies The tries. transformed , the Tunisian and Egyptian dictators, followed by the fall of and of protesters, by in Square Tahrir of month next the occupation the and 2010, December in vendor, Tunisianstreet a Bouazizi, Mohamed of suicide The German MarshallFundoftheUnitedStates, Senior Adviser Sir MichaelLeigh Following the Arab Uprisings Turkey’s RoleintheMediterranean Turkey: aNewPower intheMediterranean international perceptions of their coun- their of perceptions international anciens régimes. Turkey was the most Nicholas Sarkozy. ranean, set up on the insistence of French President Mediter - the for Union symbolic largely the of dent co-presi - became Mubarak President that point the ber States enjoyed close links with Arab regimes, to action plans remained largely dead letters. EU Mem- these event, the In reforms. governance and rights human for exchange in programmes EU in pation partici- and access, market assistance, financial ing offer- plans,” “action of negotiation the in ernments The EU had engaged with the region’s previous gov- required immediatere-examination. Mediterranean” the for “Union the and Policy, hood Neighbour- European the Process, Barcelona the of frameworks overlapping The over. were Brussels or Paris Rome, in pomp with received was Gaddafi Colonel when days The tenable. appeared longer Mediterranean no ties historical the and interests economic on based across colonies former and their countries European southern between tions rela- , and , in uprisings the With Europe’s ReactiontotheArabUprisings diver- marked gences overdevelopmentsintheregion. despite Europe, and States United the Arabia, Saudi , China, Russia, with relations its manage to and Turkey, into tensions sectarian of stability,regional restore help to spillover a prevent to are now challenges main Its partners. new identifying East, quickly adapting to changed circumstances and Middle the and Africa North in uprisings the lowing Overall, however, Turkey has manoeuvred adroitly fol- come totermswithCyprusandArmenia. to failure and Israel with rift record, rights human its Congress and in the wider public are more critical of in voices while administration, the with essentially is ogy.States Turkey’sUnited the with rapprochement In the case of Libya, the United States found a pru- a found States United the Libya, of case the In ternational response to the uprisings in North Africa. in- the orchestrating in lead the take to Europe and League Arab the for content was States United The the significanceofrise of politicalIslam. about and region, the in NATO’s role about flux, of state a in governments Arab with relations its about recovery,economic and prices oil on uprisings Arab time, same the At Washington was concerned the about the impact of the rights. to human of commitment universality administration’s the dating vali- exception”and “Arab the of fallacy the strating came untenable, the uprisings were seen as demon- be- position Mubarak’s As Israel. the with treaty peace especially, and, stability regional affect could overthrow his that fearing Cairo, in Mubarak ident tious approach during demonstrations against Pres- cau- a adopted administration Obama the Initially tolerant formsofIslam. with compatible were values American that claimed President Obama’s June 2009 Cairo speech, which in realism, notably reform, for appeals and Egypt, to granted diplomatic between symbolised by the $1.3 billion of military aid annually oscillated tiative, Ini- Africa North and East Middle Broader istration’s racy promotion under the banner of the Bush admin- democ- ill-starred of bout a after States, United The The UnitedStates logue istoyieldconcreteresults. dia- this if purpose shared of degree to higher a show need sides both However, Turkey. with logue” dia- “political EU’s the to importance greater given and role geostrategic its to process reform internal Turkey’sin setbacks and negotiations accession EU from attention refocused has This East. Middle the and Africa North in role geopolitical key Turkey’s of Europe in awareness reinforced uprisings Arab The European norms,standardsandvalues. with line into systems political countries’ their bring to sought necessarily uprisings the by unleashed es not, however, was apparent that the diverse It political forc- Europe. Eastern and Central in “transition” for support its reflected strongly approach and lary vocabu- EU’s The government. of forms democratic towards move to “more” did that countries African policy framework tooffer“more” assistancetothoseNorth its adapted then and uprisings the of tions implica- the evaluate to weeks several took EU The position as a front-line state has led to divergences divergences to led has state front-line a as position Turkey’s critical stance towards the Assad regime and pervision MissioninSyria April 2012. Su- UN the establishing Resolution Council Security difficult negotiations, Russia voted in favour of the UN After UN. the and League Arab the of behalf on nan An- Kofi by forward put plan the through resolution” “peaceful advocate and Syria in model” Libyan “the of repetition any out ruled explicitly have sentatives repre- WesternRussian towards intervention. military move any of wary is and Syria to arms ship to tinued con- has Russia Jordan. probably and Lebanon bilise port of Tartus. It would weaken Iran and further desta- Syrian the at possibly,base and, naval ally its an of of A collapse of the Assad regime would deprive Russia much sharperreactiontoeventsinSyria. Russia’s for scene the set experience This critical. ing at regime change, Moscow became increasingly NATO operation wore on and was perceived as aim- the as But NATO’sintervention. facilitating thus cil, After much negotiation, it abstained in the Security Coun- Russia. to challenge major a posed regime, Gaddafithe of fall the and intervention subsequent NATO’s 1973, Resolution Council Security of tion adop- the to led which Libya, in conflict armed The and isclosetotheUnitedStates. , which propagates abroad towards allies, as views it which Iran, and Syria from away region the in tilt a be will effect overall the that to rise fears and Islam, with imbued governments of power the dislikes democracy, of establishment the about sceptical is It misgiving. with world the Arab in uprisings views Russia More however, Egypt. generally, and Tunisia in regimes new to itself has regions accommodated quickly contrasting Russia and minimal proved these to spillover tice, prac- In terms. geopolitical in and Asia Central and Caucasus North the to spillover possible in of both terms world Arab the in uprisings views Russia Russia repression bytheAssadregime. fallout from the armed uprising international in Syria and its the violent of much absorbed has Turkey as especially , and Washington between tions rela- strengthened have uprisings Arab the Overall, couraging European states to play the principal role. en- and protect” to right “the implementing for port sup- military and diplomatic between balance dent

55 Med.2012 Keys 56 Med.2012 Keys lead Ankara and Jerusalem to reappraise their relations. time in well may region the in developments but likely, un- seems run short the Turkeyin and Israel between reconciliation A effectively influence. Saudi and and Iranian counters region the in role moderating a play More broadly, Israel would benefit if Turkey manages to contributed toitsrapprochement withWashington. role in Syria has distanced Ankara from Teheran and Turkey’ssucceed. Syria to stability restore to efforts Turkey’s if beneficiaries major the of one be would However this need not be a zero-sum game as Israel Mediterranean region with far-reaching implications. the in alignment political new a become may which rael has reinforced its links with Cyprus and Greece, of 2008/2009 and the flotilla incident in May 2010, Is- winter the in Gaza in Lead Cast Operation ing Turkey,with relations Israel’s in follow- rift the Since commercial andpoliticalconsiderations. both on based been have to seems that decision a in Israel to supplies gas off cut Company Holding Gas Natural state-owned partly Egypt’s 2012, April In Eilat. of port Sea Red Israel’s at rockets katyusha to Israel and Jordan, and the inept firing of Grad-type pipeline gas the on attacks terrorist frequent to led which Peninsula, Sinai the in especially order, and law of breakdown the about concerned was Israel Nonetheless, Israel. with treaty peace the of gation abro- for press least, at term short the in not, would Brotherhood, Muslim elections, parliamentary 2011/2012 the won which the that appeared it when overthrow,abated Mubarak’s somewhat with pillars, these of one of loss possible the at Israel in Alarm tifadas andtheArabuprisings. have come under strain since the two Palestinian in- which , with ties economic and political its eration with Jordan is close. Israel seeks to preserve Israel to concentrate on other issues. Security coop- allowed has cold, however Egypt, with Peace egy. Egypt provide the regional pillars of its security strat- and Jordan with treaties peace Israel’s region. the of countries the towards policies pragmatic pursed long have reasons, different for Turkey, and Israel The IsraeliPosition tion andatleastapartialconvergenceofviews. Turkey’sposi- for Moscow in understanding growing pressure to reassess its position. under There may well be a come will Moscow however, continue, gees refu- of outpouring and violence the If Russia. with one person was killed and dozens wounded. In re- In wounded. dozens and killed was person one which in rallies protest of repression violent the ing 2011, Teherandur- visited Gül February Abdullah TurkishPresident In brother.” “my as Damascus in al-Assad Hafez Bashar President addressed dogan Rights Human for Prize International Gaddafi the accepted Erdogan Minister Prime 2011, December as cently re- As ties. commercial and political close veloped little showed de- it which with regimes the about Ankara squeamishness uprisings, Arab the Before Close RelationswiththeAnciensRégimes in Libya andSyria. out broke conflict violent and overthrown were region the in partners political Ankara’s when tion Turkishposi- vulnerable a in citizens and companies put it However terms. business in off paid have to Turkey’s own Thus “neighbourhood policy” seemed at decade. first past the during trade total Turkey’s Trade with Muslim countries rose from 12 to 20% of to evacuate itscitizens. operation major a undertook Turkey strife, civil of outbreak the With country. the in present zens citi- Turkish 25,000 some and companies Turkish $15-$17 billion in Libyan contracts outstanding with were there regime Gaddafi the of fall AK the On party. the to close entrepreneurs Anatolian of class therising especially business, Turkish to benefits considerable brought countries relations neighbouring with pragmatic Turkey’s flourishing trade. a cross-border to leading concluded, agreements from trade free travellers and abolished were states for neighbouring obligations Visa East. Middle the in states other and Syria Jordan, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, with trade of expansion considerable a to led It aspiration behindthispolicy. neighbours”the with expressed problems “zero gan facilitator, eschewing political conditionality. The slo- ment, invest- as well as Turkey’s and own role as a mediator and trade promoted that Africa North and uprisings, Turkey pursued a policy in the Middle East proach taken by the EU. In the ap- years before the Arab schoolmasterly the with contrast in countries, neighbouring towards policy in pragmatism of tue Recep Tayyip Erdogan, since 2002, have made a vir- Minister Prime by headed Turkishgovernments The T urkey’s PragmaticNeighbourhoodPolicy in a ceremony in Libya. Early in 2011, Mr Er- Mr 2011, in Early Libya. in ceremony a in AOs usqet eiin o nae n military in engage to and decision subsequent NATO’s March, in 1973 Resolution Council Security call for a no-fly zone, the adoption of United Nations League’s Arab the Benghazi, of people the against threats Gaddafi’s Libya, in war civil of outbreak The key’s popularityinNorthAfrica. him credibility with the earned demonstrators and increased Tur This - government. of form democratic a to way give to and people the of will the heed to Mubarak on call to leader international first the was increasingly bridled at domestic dissent. Mr Erdogan was himself who Minister Prime demonstrations a to attractive scarcely popular by challenged ing be- country Muslim major a of leader long-standing Turkey.a of spectacle the Cairo, with rivalry Despite for issues fundamental more in raised 2011 February resignation Mubarak’s to leading protests The 2011 elections. Ghannouchi, Rached leader of the Ennahda party, which won the October with particular in engaged and ouster Ali’s Ben welcomed Turkey initial hesitation, After prudence. with movement protest the of focus Turkish attention, and at first the usual government viewed the outside was Tunisia cautious. events leading up to these momentous changes was jor challenge to Turkey. Turkey’s initial reaction to the and the uprising and repression in Syria posed a ma- NATOa under Libya in umbrella intervention military in Mubarak with coupled Libya, in Gaddafi Muammar and Egypt Hosni President later and Tunisia, in Ali Ben Abidine El Zine President of overthrow The Africa T opinion followingtheuprisings. the with complicity Turkey’s However, question. clear Ankara of May 2010. has also sought to mediate in on the Iranian nu- winter incident flotilla the the and in 2008/2009 Lead” Cast “Operation lowing fol- Israel with rift the until Israel, and Syria between talks brokered several It citizens. British and on French ican, Iran with occasions to obtain the release of imprisoned intervened Amer- Turkey bility. sta- regional to contribution its for community tional nomic benefits and earned plaudits from the interna- This “good neighbour” policy brought concrete eco- cal referencestotheseevents. ellipti- most the only made he visit, the during marks urkey’s ResponsetotheUprisingsinNorth rankled with sections of Arab of sections with rankled régimes anciens provide a focus for deeper relations. Overall, TurkeyOverall, relations. deeper for focus a provide could investment and Trade,tourism institutions. lar between democracy with an Islamist tinge and secu- balance a finding in experience its Turkeyshare can Africa. North with relations economic and political There is considerable scope for Turkey to develop its rangements. ar- commercial new securing in and Libya in jects pro- billion $15-17 Turkey’s resurrecting in gress pro- some made delegation Turkish The Egypt. in emphasis on secularism in remarks before his arrival based. Clearly they did not appreciate Mr Erdogan’s be should order constitutional future Egypt’s which that an outside power should lay down principles on idea the rejected but Turkey for respect expressed election, parliamentary the won subsequently which Brotherhood, Party,Muslim tice the of emanation an Jus- and Freedom Egyptian the of Representatives estinian state. Pal- a of establishment the over rhetoric heightened his echo not did and Gaza to visit proposed his out ruled They Cairo. in leaders military from response He was met by public adulation businesspeople. but by a more measured 200 by accompanied 2011, September in Libya, Tunisiaand Egypt, to visit a for Buoyed by these developments, Mr Erdogan set out grading ofTurkish diplomaticrelationswithIsrael. down- the and incident flotilla Gaza the over Israel from apology an for demand Ankara’s by boosted world were Arab the in popularity and confidence of tone in official Turkish pronouncements. proponents Turkish self- other and change. There was no mistaking a certain party,triumphant Ennahda sia’s Tuni- of leader Ghannouchi, Rached by Turkey on Minister heaped was that praise the Foreign by gratified visibly were and Minister Prime Turkish The to anend. war civil the bringing on proposals forward put and office leave to Gaddafi for called Erdogan Mr May, strators from burning the Turkish flag in Benghazi. By NATOthe demon- to prevent sion not did operation conver- Turkey’s workers. Turkish evacuate to tion opera- large-scale a in engaged and waters Libyan to vessels naval sent Turkey and operation, NATO the to round came Erdogan Mr Nonetheless, gime. re- the with concluded had companies Turkish that contracts multi-billion-dollar under Libya in working human were Gaddafi citizens Turkish 25,000 while and the prize rights accepted Erdogan Mr after months four just occurred events These guard. off Ankara caught resolution the enforce to measures

57 Med.2012 Keys 58 Med.2012 Keys instability thereisamajorpreoccupation inAnkara. continued and state Syrian the of fragmentation of risk The uncertain. outcome the and fragile tremely ex- remains situation the But Europe. and States ed Unit - the from appreciation it earned operations tary mili- cease to Assad Mr pressuring Syria’s in and strife civil from fallout the absorbing in role Turkey’s refugee flow. the with coping in support international and lence in Turkey, refuge leading Ankara to demand an end to the vio- taken had citizens Syrian 25,000 some 2012 April By army. Syrian the with confrontation Turkey rejected such moves, which could draw it into opposition. Syrian the arming and Syria within zone Turkey,into buffer corridor a humanitarian a of ment establish- the about grew Speculation violence. the However, these international initiatives failed to stem fire observermission. cease- Nations United subsequent the to and Syria in transition political for plan League Arab 2012 ary end to the violence and gave its support to the Janu- an demanded Ankara policeman. Turkish a cluding in- others, many injured and refugees two killed der bor- the across fired shots 2012, April In refugees. of flow increasing an faced Turkey regions. border in situation economic the on impact severe a had Syria spread, Turkey imposed trade sanctions, which in violence the As Syria. with border 877-kilometre Turkey’s across business flourishing this in decline The uprising against the Assad regime led to a sharp ness withSyria. Gaziantep, of province which became a major centre for cross-border busi - border the to especially benefits economic major bringing Syria, with links ment with the Assad regime. Turkey developed close Party rapproche- major a Workers’engineered Erdogan Mr (PKK), Kurdistan the for support Syrian and water, territory, over conflict of decades lowing Fol- challenge. greater far a posed has Syria in ings ments in North Africa, the brutal repression of upris- develop- by comforted been balance, on has, role While Turkey’s ambition to play a regional leadership Syria pation iswiththesituationinSyria. preoccu- immediate its though Africa, North in ence influ- stabilising certain a exercise to placed well is al stability. ostrategic actor with a key role in bolstering region- Arab the ge- Turkey’sa sealed as have re-emergence world in developments recent Overall, tries. coun- Arab the in many change political of to proponents appeals population Muslim dominantly pre - a with state Western-oriented open, wealthy, relativelyTurkey’s a Nonetheless, as olution. image for the past ninety years following the Kemalist rev- continuing and rulers Ottoman country’s the under reforms with beginning century, a than more over evolved model Turkish The elsewhere. applicable directly not “model”is its that mean pre-eminence Sunnite and population its of composition ethnic the state,” “deep the by domination political and secularism imposed of period long its past, toman Turkey’sindeed, And East. Ot- Middle the and rica the Turkish model guiding the uprisings in North Af- Government leaders in Ankara have rebuffed talk of Russia. with divergences to led and Arabia Saudi and Iran with rivalry sharpened stance Turkey’s contrast, By an imbroglio in the midst of the sovereign debt crisis. Syri- the contain to seeking governments with rope, Eu- in too, well, chimes It world. the around reach over- avoid to seeking and politics domestic with preoccupied Washington in administration an with well chimes This Europe. and States United the on tentially, an exporter of stability, reducing the burden po- become, Turkeyhas region, the in emerging es By swiftly switching its commitment to the new forc- neighbours” policy. with problems “zero previous government’s the of failure effective the of advantage political take to ing previous leader, the CHP has been unable or unwill- a party that became increasingly nationalist under its to unable As government. the to challenge effective an mount been has party, opposition centre-left main country’s the (CHP), Party People’s publican Re- the leadership, new under Even opposition. the policy among the Turkish public and the weakness of home, this owes much to the low salience of foreign any paying price in terms of without domestic or international opinion. At uprisings, Arab the following cessful in turning its “neighbourhood” policy around, suc- remarkably been has government Turkish The Actor T urkey’s Re-EmergenceasaGeostrategic