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Turkey's Role in the Mediterranean Following the Arab Uprisings

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Turkey's Role in the Mediterranean Following the Arab Uprisings Turkey: a New Power in the Mediterranean Turkey’s Role in the Mediterranean Following the Arab Uprisings Sir Michael Leigh ogy. Turkey’s rapprochement with the United States Senior Adviser is essentially with the administration, while voices in Keys German Marshall Fund of the United States, Brussels Congress and in the wider public are more critical of its human rights record, rift with Israel and failure to come to terms with Cyprus and Armenia. The suicide of Mohamed Bouazizi, a Tunisian street Overall, however, Turkey has manoeuvred adroitly fol- vendor, in December 2010, and the occupation the lowing the uprisings in North Africa and the Middle 2012 next month of Tahrir Square in Cairo by protesters, East, quickly adapting to changed circumstances and followed by the fall of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and of identifying new partners. Its main challenges now are Med. Hosni Mubarak, the Tunisian and Egyptian dictators, to help restore regional stability, to prevent a spillover transformed international perceptions of their coun- of sectarian tensions into Turkey, and to manage its tries. The policies towards this region previously relations with Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the pursued by European countries, the United States, United States and Europe, despite marked diver- Russia, Turkey, Israel and others quickly needed rec- gences over developments in the region. 54 alibrating. All had been to different degrees com- plicit with the anciens régimes. Turkey was the most fleet-footed in adapting to new realities. Europe’s reaction to the arab Uprisings After examining briefly the reaction of key interna- tional actors, this paper focuses on the evolution of With the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, rela- Turkish policy in response to changed political cir- tions between southern European countries and cumstances in North Africa and the Middle East. The their former colonies across the Mediterranean Arab uprisings led to Turkey’s re-emergence as an based on economic interests and historical ties no important geostrategic actor and relegated to a sec- longer appeared tenable. The days when Colonel ondary position other sources of concern related to Gaddafi was received with pomp in Rome, Paris or Turkey, for example over media freedoms, the rift Brussels were over. The overlapping frameworks of with Israel or the failure of the Cyprus settlement the Barcelona Process, the European Neighbour- talks. Turkey’s rapprochement with the Obama ad- hood Policy, and the “Union for the Mediterranean” ministration is particularly striking, reflecting its role required immediate re-examination. as a regional shock absorber, notably with regard to The EU had engaged with the region’s previous gov- Syria, and its renewed commitment to NATO, ernments in the negotiation of “action plans,” offer- through the missile defence shield. ing financial assistance, market access, and partici- The Turkish government has been relatively free of pation in EU programmes in exchange for human internal and external constraints in distancing itself rights and governance reforms. In the event, these from former allies in the region and reaching out to action plans remained largely dead letters. EU Mem- emerging political forces. The question remains ber States enjoyed close links with Arab regimes, to whether Turkey’s nascent regional leadership role the point that President Mubarak became co-presi- can be maintained and whether it will prove a com- dent of the largely symbolic Union for the Mediter- plement or an alternative to links with Europe, still its ranean, set up on the insistence of French President main trading partner, investor and source of technol- Nicholas Sarkozy. The EU took several weeks to evaluate the implica- dent balance between diplomatic and military sup- tions of the uprisings and then adapted its policy port for implementing “the right to protect” and en- framework to offer “more” assistance to those North couraging European states to play the principal role. African countries that did “more” to move towards Overall, the Arab uprisings have strengthened rela- democratic forms of government. The EU’s vocabu- tions between Washington and Ankara, especially lary and approach strongly reflected its support for as Turkey has absorbed much of the international “transition” in Central and Eastern Europe. It was fallout from the armed uprising in Syria and its violent not, however, apparent that the diverse political forc- repression by the Assad regime. es unleashed by the uprisings necessarily sought to bring their countries’ political systems into line with European norms, standards and values. russia The Arab uprisings reinforced awareness in Europe of Turkey’s key geopolitical role in North Africa and Russia views uprisings in the Arab world both in the Middle East. This has refocused attention from terms of possible spillover to the North Caucasus setbacks in Turkey’s EU accession negotiations and and Central Asia and in geopolitical terms. In prac- Keys internal reform process to its geostrategic role and tice, spillover to these contrasting regions has given greater importance to the EU’s “political dia- proved minimal and Russia quickly accommodated logue” with Turkey. However, both sides need to itself to new regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. More show a higher degree of shared purpose if this dia- generally, however, Russia views uprisings in the logue is to yield concrete results. Arab world with misgiving. It is sceptical about the 2012 establishment of democracy, dislikes the rise to Med. power of governments imbued with Islam, and fears the United States that the overall effect will be a tilt in the region away from Syria and Iran, which it views as allies, towards The United States, after a bout of ill-starred democ- Saudi Arabia, which propagates Sunni Islam abroad racy promotion under the banner of the Bush admin- and is close to the United States. 55 istration’s Broader Middle East and North Africa Ini- The armed conflict in Libya, which led to the adop- tiative, oscillated between diplomatic realism, tion of Security Council Resolution 1973, NATO’s symbolised by the $1.3 billion of military aid annually subsequent intervention and the fall of the Gaddafi granted to Egypt, and appeals for reform, notably in regime, posed a major challenge to Russia. After President Obama’s June 2009 Cairo speech, which much negotiation, it abstained in the Security Coun- claimed that American values were compatible with cil, thus facilitating NATO’s intervention. But as the tolerant forms of Islam. NATO operation wore on and was perceived as aim- Initially the Obama administration adopted a cau- ing at regime change, Moscow became increasingly tious approach during demonstrations against Pres- critical. This experience set the scene for Russia’s ident Mubarak in Cairo, fearing that his overthrow much sharper reaction to events in Syria. could affect regional stability and, especially, the A collapse of the Assad regime would deprive Russia peace treaty with Israel. As Mubarak’s position be- of an ally and, possibly, of its naval base at the Syrian came untenable, the uprisings were seen as demon- port of Tartus. It would weaken Iran and further desta- strating the fallacy of the “Arab exception” and vali- bilise Lebanon and probably Jordan. Russia has con- dating the administration’s commitment to the tinued to ship arms to Syria and is wary of any move universality of human rights. At the same time, towards Western military intervention. Russian repre- Washington was concerned about the impact of the sentatives have explicitly ruled out any repetition of Arab uprisings on oil prices and economic recovery, “the Libyan model” in Syria and advocate “peaceful about its relations with Arab governments in a state resolution” through the plan put forward by Kofi An- of flux, about NATO’s role in the region, and about nan on behalf of the Arab League and the UN. After the significance of the rise of political Islam. difficult negotiations, Russia voted in favour of the UN The United States was content for the Arab League Security Council Resolution establishing the UN Su- and Europe to take the lead in orchestrating the in- pervision Mission in Syria in April 2012. ternational response to the uprisings in North Africa. Turkey’s critical stance towards the Assad regime and In the case of Libya, the United States found a pru- position as a front-line state has led to divergences with Russia. If the violence and outpouring of refu- turkey’s Pragmatic neighbourhood Policy gees continue, however, Moscow will come under pressure to reassess its position. There may well be a The Turkish governments headed by Prime Minister growing understanding in Moscow for Turkey’s posi- Recep Tayyip Erdogan, since 2002, have made a vir- tion and at least a partial convergence of views. tue of pragmatism in policy towards neighbouring countries, in contrast with the schoolmasterly ap- proach taken by the EU. In the years before the Arab the Israeli Position uprisings, Turkey pursued a policy in the Middle East and North Africa that promoted trade and invest- Israel and Turkey, for different reasons, have long ment, as well as Turkey’s own role as a mediator and pursed pragmatic policies towards the countries of facilitator, eschewing political conditionality. The slo- the region. Israel’s peace treaties with Jordan and gan “zero problems with neighbours” expressed the Egypt provide the regional pillars of its security strat- aspiration behind this policy. egy. Peace with Egypt, however cold, has allowed It led to a considerable expansion of trade with Iraq, Keys Israel to concentrate on other issues. Security coop- Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and other states in the eration with Jordan is close. Israel seeks to preserve Middle East. Visa obligations for travellers from its political and economic ties with Morocco, which neighbouring states were abolished and free trade have come under strain since the two Palestinian in- agreements concluded, leading to a flourishing tifadas and the Arab uprisings.
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