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Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Elections in Azerbaijan Political Infighting and Strategic Interests of Great Powers Elkhan Nuriyev* SWP Comments Two years after being elected President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev finds himself facing a mounting domestic political crisis. In the parliamentary election held on 6 November 2005, both the opposition and Western election observers recorded serious procedural violations and instances of election fraud. The government continues to maintain that all the conditions for fair, transparent, and democratic elections were fulfilled. After all, international organisations had made efforts to ensure that this was the case well in advance of the elections themselves. The United States, the most important external player in the region, let it be known that any attempt to tamper with the elections would prompt an unequivocal response on its part. But whereas international attention paid to the elections has focussed on the power struggles between the government and opposition forces, the dynamics within the ruling elite should not be neglected. Indeed, in the run-up to the elections, clear fault lines had formed within the government camp. In October 2003, two months before his the Minister for Economic Development, death in December that same year, Heydar Farhad Aliyev, who—probably not only for Aliyev, who had ruled the country with an unselfish reasons—pushed for economic iron fist since 1993, made sure that his son reforms. So whilst foreign observers con- Ilham would succeed him. Ilham Aliyev’s tinued to focus largely on a confrontation rise to power triggered a fragmentation in between the government and the oppo- Azerbaijan’s political power structure with sition, the domestic political situation was some members becoming engaged in open actually being shaped more by the bitter conflict. Indeed, the ruling elite split up struggle between the various groupings more markedly than before into influential that had formed within the government groups, and battles ensued to gain the ear camp. of the President and his closest aides. There The tension mounted as the parliamen- was nothing subtle about the clash between tary election drew nearer. The leading the Chairman of the State Customs Com- opposition parties became more vocal and mittee of Azerbaijan, Kamalladin Heydarov, the divisions between government factions a known hardliner of the ‘old guard’, and grew ever clearer. The leaders of the oppo- * The author, currently working as a DAAD-OSI Research Fellow at SWP, leads the Centre for International Studies SWP Comments 58 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where he is also Professor of Political Science at Western University December 2005 1 Map of above’ than ‘from below’. In late October Azerbaijan 2005 there were growing indications of a power struggle within the government, culminating in a purge at the highest levels which came as a surprise to many. A joint declaration issued by the Ministry of National Security, the Ministry of the Interior, and the General Public Prosecu- tor’s Office spoke of ‘uncovering a plot’. The alleged leader of this conspiracy was identified as former Parliamentary Speaker Rasul Guliyev, a former brother-in-arms of Heydar Aliyev who had fallen out with his one-time comrade and emigrated to the Source: © Spiegel online, 2005. United States because the Azerbaijani authorities had issued a warrant for his sition threatened a ‘colour revolution’ if arrest on allegations of embezzlement and the government failed to guarantee fair and corruption. just elections. The ruling elite suppressed Along with Guliyev, other senior repre- all attempts by the opposition to stage anti- sentatives of the government and the government protests and rallies in central country’s most influential oligarchs were Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. Some high- accused of having mounted a coup and ranking officials, who had publicly stated financing the opposition. This round-up of their loyalty to the President and supported troublemakers peaked when measures were the governing party, unofficially estab- taken against disloyal followers, including lished contacts with the opposition. The the dismissal and arrest of Minister for closer the day of the elections came, and Economic Development Farhad Aliyev (who the clearer it became that the population is not a relation of President Aliyev), Health was expecting a ‘colour revolution’ to take Minister Ali Insanov, Chief of Presidential place, the less these officials attempted to Affairs Akif Muradverdiyev, and Rafik conceal their sympathies for the opposition Aliyev, the CEO of Azpetrol, the biggest movement. Whilst the security forces oil company in the Southern Caucasus. did everything they could to prevent any In addition, the authorities in Azerbaijan destabilisation, the leaders of the opposi- tightened their control over domestic tion were convinced that a revolution was affairs and stepped up their surveillance the only way of toppling the Aliyev regime of all the country’s strategic assets. and gaining power for themselves. Many people were astonished to see Consequently, the political process in such a young President—who had pre- Azerbaijan cannot merely be characterised viously been thought of as weak—strike as a power struggle between the govern- so firmly. Some observers even found Ilham ment camp represented by the party “New Aliyev’s actions reminiscent of his father’s Azerbaijan” and the opposition block style of rule. There is the possibility that dubbed “Freedom”, but also as a conflict the President feared powerful ministers between factions within the ruling elite. and oligarchs since they had considerable amounts of capital at their disposal and enjoyed good standing within social and A Conspiracy political circles. Evidently he also feared within the Ruling Elite? that influential members of the govern- In actual fact, the latest turbulence in ment striving for more radical reforms Azerbaijan has more likely come ‘from might go over to the opposition. Indeed, SWP Comments 58 December 2005 2 Aliyev did find himself faced with a rather abroad. Azpetrol is one of the most success- tricky situation in which some prominent ful companies in the region and earns mas- figures might have been prepared, under sive dividends not just for its owners, but certain circumstances, to join the oppo- also for the state. Since the former Minister sition in a bid to force a ‘changing of the for Economic Development Farhad Aliyev guard’, or at least weaken the President’s and his brother Rafik Aliyev—who until powers. recently headed up Azpetrol—are now out At the same time, Aliyev’s preventive of the picture, the holding will probably measures against influential factions with- either fall into the hands of a new oligarch in the government shifted the balance of or be nationalised. power and upset the longstanding political Clearly, Aliyev felt that he had become equilibrium within Azerbaijan. So the a hostage of the representatives of his purge of individuals undertaken in October father’s ‘old guard’, who may have sought duly triggered a political crisis. Such major to topple him at the next best opportunity. political upheavals shortly before the par- In that sense, he can be viewed as the victor liamentary election, in addition to the in the first round of a power struggle, i.e., official accusations levelled against minis- as a President who managed to tighten ters and oligarchs supposedly out to seize his control over the top political echelons power, speak volumes about the relations in the period leading up to the elections. within the ruling elite. Those who stand Nonetheless, the ruling elite still contains accused of preparing a coup against the numerous representatives of the ‘old current President have probably already guard’, though they will have to step down been found guilty, and it is not difficult to sooner or later and make way for politi- imagine the methods that might be used cians belonging to a younger generation. to conduct the investigation or guess how objective they might prove to be. Having said that, the purge did enhance The Opposition the President’s public image and damaged In recent years the opposition in Azerbaijan the opposition parties by establishing links has become increasingly resolute in its between Guliyev, corrupt members of the attempts to induce radical change in the government, and opponents of the regime. country and has developed a scenario of a However, the standing of the government change of government by revolution. On party “New Azerbaijan” suffered a severe two occasions, once before and then also blow because all the high-ranking officials immediately after the presidential election who had been arrested had belonged to it. held in autumn 2003, opposition leaders In the end, when former Health Minister launched an unsuccessful bid to bring Insanov confessed to his involvement in the down the regime, but unlike the ‘Rose coup, many supporters of the ‘old guard’ Revolutionaries’ in neighbouring Georgia, were chased out of the governing party. they failed to garner any substantial sup- Now there is no ruling out the possibility port from outside the country. After the that ‘clean-up measures’ will continue until presidential election, which was manipu- all key posts in the country have been filled lated to ensure a smooth changeover and with new faces loyal to the President. maintain the ruling Aliyev regime, the Most likely, a new battle for the redistri- authorities smashed the opposition, which bution of the private property of the former had simply run out of time. Those in ministers and oligarchs will begin. The government used every conceivable method major holding, Azpetrol, will no doubt be at their disposal to gain influence over the the most sought-after prize, since it has domestic political situation in Azerbaijan. infrastructure and sells almost 70 per cent Subsequently, the leading opposition of all petroleum products in Azerbaijan and parties took a long time to get back on their SWP Comments 58 December 2005 3 feet again and barely managed to mount a acterised by widespread electoral fraud.

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