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The Impact of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict on the Economic Growth of Transcaucasia

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The Impact of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict on the Economic Growth of Transcaucasia ZN WSH Zarządzanie 2020 (4), s. 137-150 Studium przypadku Case study Data wplywu/Received: 15.06.2020 Data recenzji/Accepted: 14.07.2020/17.07.2020 Data publikacji/Published: 31.12.2020 Źródła finansowania publikacji: środki własne DOI: Authors› Contribution: Study Design (projekt badania) Data Collection (zbieranie danych) Statistical Analysis (analiza statystyczna) Data Interpretation (interpretacja danych) Manuscript Preparation (redagowanie opracowania) Literature Search (badania literaturowe) Farman Yusubau, Ph.D. A B C D E F Yanka Kupala state University of Grodno, Belarus ORCID 0000-0001-6165-6757 THE IMPACT OF THE ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF TRANSCAUCASIA WPŁYW KONFLIKTU ARMEŃSKO- -AZERBERDŻAŃSKIEGO W GÓRSKIM KARABACHU NA WZROST GOSPODARCZY ZAKAUKAZIA Abstract: The article deals with the frozen conflict between two sovereign States in Trans- caucasia: Armenia and Azerbaijan, which can be undermined at any time due to unresolved issues, and destroy the economy not only in the region. The purpose of the article is to elimi- 138 Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Humanitas. Zarządzanie nate this conflict with possible instruments aimed at eternal peace and ensuring economic security in the region. During the research, the author used methods such as analysis, syn- thesis, comparison, grouping, etc. The history and causes of this conflict have been studied. In the result of the analysis, it is concluded that the influence of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, today, in frozen form, has a negative impact, primarily on Azerbaijan’s economy since occupied over 20 percent of its territory, and, as a result of oc- cupation, destroyed towns, the entire infrastructure, and there was more than one million Azerbaijanis refugees. As well as part of the territory of Azerbaijan - the Nakhchivan Au- tonomous Republic-was blocked by Armenia. In turn, Armenia, because of its occupation policy, has also been blocked by Azerbaijan and Turkey, and thus does not allow its economy to grow. The Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has also become the main reason that global economic projects in the region have been implemented bypassing Arme- nia. Turkey is the only country in the region that does not have vested interests in the con- flict, and supports and fairly protects the interests of Azerbaijan on all international political and economic platforms. Officially Russia and Iran recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, like all countries of the world, but not enough strongly supported and continue to support Armenia, since both countries have their own political and economic interests in the Caucasus. It was revealed that the fear of war at any time and the existing problems did not affect the leading position of Azerbaijan in the Transcaucasia, and this country could be one of the guarantors of economic security not only in the region, but also in the world. It is determined that if this conflict is resolved by military means, local problems can cause the creation of a world-wide war, since Azerbaijan and Armenia are members of various world organizations-military blocs. Peaceful solutions to this conflict are proposed. Keywords: the world economy, the interdependence of Economics and politics, ethnogeo- political conflict, regional economic growth Streszczenie: Artykuł dotyczy zamrożonego konfliktu między dwoma suwerennymi pań- stwami na Zakaukaziu: Armenią i Azerbejdżanem, który może zostać podważony w dowol- nym momencie z powodu nierozwiązanych problemów i zniszczyć gospodarkę nie tylko w regionie. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie tego konfliktu z możliwymi instrumentami zmierzającymi do wiecznego pokoju i zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa gospodarczego w regio- nie. W badaniach wykorzystano takie metody jak analiza, synteza, porównanie, grupowanie itp. Przeanalizowano historię i przyczyny konfliktu. W wyniku analizy stwierdzono, że wpływ konfliktu armeńsko-azerbejdżańskiego na Górski Karabach, dziś w zamrożonej formie, ma negatywny wpływ przede wszystkim na gospodarkę Azerbejdżanu, który zajmował ponad 20 procent terytorium, z powodu okupacji zniszczonych miast, całej infrastruktury i ponad miliona uchodźców z Azerbejdżanu. Część terytorium Azerbejdżanu – Nachiczewska Re- publika Autonomiczna – została zablokowana przez Armenię. Z kolei Armenia ze względu na swoją politykę okupacyjną została również zablokowana przez Azerbejdżan i Turcję, co także nie pozwala na wzrost gospodarki. Konflikt armeńsko-azerbejdżański o Górski Ka- rabach stał się również głównym powodem omijania globalnych projektów gospodarczych w regionie z Armenią. Turcja jest jedynym krajem w regionie, który nie ma własnych kon- fliktów oraz wspiera i uczciwie chroni interesy Azerbejdżanu na wszystkich międzynarodo- wych platformach politycznych i gospodarczych. Oficjalnie Rosja i Iran uznały integralność terytorialną Azerbejdżanu, podobnie jak wszystkie kraje świata, ale niewystarczająco moc- no poparły Armenię, ponieważ oba kraje mają własne interesy polityczne i gospodarcze na The Impact of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict on the Economic ... 139 Kaukazie. Ujawniono, że strach przed wojną i istniejące problemy nie wpłynęły na wiodącą pozycję Azerbejdżanu na Zakaukaziu, a kraj ten może być jednym z gwarantów bezpieczeń- stwa gospodarczego nie tylko w regionie, ale także na świecie. Ustalono, że jeśli ten konflikt zostanie rozwiązany za pomocą środków wojskowych, problemy lokalne mogą spowodować wojnę ogólnoświatową, ponieważ Azerbejdżan i Armenia są członkami różnych światowych organizacji-bloków wojskowych. Proponowane są pokojowe rozwiązania tego konfliktu. Słowa kluczowe: gospodarka światowa, współzależność ekonomii i polityki, konflikt etno- geopolityczny, regionalny wzrost gospodarczy Introduction In the context of globalization and digitalization of the modern world economy, almost every region of our vast planet has points of conflict. Conflicts, problems, and tensions in relations always have a negative impact on the development of the country’s economy, and in the future — the region, and, as a result, the world econ- omy. One of the important reasons for creating a conflict between States is the ter- ritorial claim of one country to another: Nagorno-Karabakh, Crimea, Abkhazia, Pridnestrovie, and so on. unfortunately, there are more and more such examples in the modern economy every time. During the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Armenian country, taking advantage of the instability in the region, entered into collusion with the local authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh, through propaganda, instilling the idea of creating a mythical state “Great Armenia”, hostile to the local population – Armenians against the local population-Azerbaijanis, and presented a territorial claim to Azerbaijan and, thus, created the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, according to scientists A. Yamsky, K. Allahverdiev, R.G. Abdullatipov and a number of other authors, is con- sidered as a conflict between an ethnic group and a state, as ethnogeopolitical, as ethnopolitical123, etc.But, in my opinion, the roots of this conflict have a historically artificial character of creating the sphere of influence of imperialist countries in order to expand, strengthen and retain for many years, and, at the first opportunity, absorbing these countries and depriving them of their sovereignty, which is con- trary to international law of our time. The Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is still the main cause of military discord between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the destabilization of the Transcaucasian economy. According to Swedish scientist Svante Cornell, «of all the 1 R.G. Abdulatipov, Ethno-political conflicts in the CIS: supranational mechanisms of resolution, 1997. 2 K. Allahverdiev, The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the context of retrospective ethno-geopolitics, “Central Asia and the Caucasus” 2009, No 1, pp. 63-74. 3 A.N. Yamskov, Ethnic Conflict in the Transcaucasus: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh, “Theory and Society” 1991, Vol. 20, No 5, pp. 631-660. 140 Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Humanitas. Zarządzanie Caucasian conflicts, the Karabakh conflict has the greatest strategic and regional significance. This conflict is the only one on the territory of the former Soviet Union in which two independent States are directly involved. Moreover, in the late 1990s, the Karabakh conflict contributed to the formation of opposing groups of States in and around the Caucasus»4. 1. The historical process of conflict occurrence As we know, it is almost impossible to analyze an economy without a policy, especially one that is based on historical facts. Therefore, it is necessary to answer a number of important historical questions before analyzing the impact of the Ar- menian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on economic development in the region. First, it is necessary to find out whether native Armenians live in the major- ity on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Second, whether there was a statehood, as only some interested Armenian pseudo-historians claim, misleading modernity. All these questions can be answered by studying historical documents of the XIX century that are available in the archives of third countries, such as the Russian Fed- eration and Iran. After reading the documents of the «Gulistan tract» (1813) and the «Turkmenchay peace Treaty» (1828), between Tsarist Russia (the Russian Fed- eration) and Persia (Iran), it can be argued
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