ZN WSH Zarządzanie 2020 (4), s. 137-150

Studium przypadku Case study

Data wplywu/Received: 15.06.2020 Data recenzji/Accepted: 14.07.2020/17.07.2020 Data publikacji/Published: 31.12.2020

Źródła finansowania publikacji: środki własne

DOI:

Authors› Contribution: Study Design (projekt badania) Data Collection (zbieranie danych) Statistical Analysis (analiza statystyczna) Data Interpretation (interpretacja danych) Manuscript Preparation (redagowanie opracowania) Literature Search (badania literaturowe)

Farman Yusubau, Ph.D. A B C D E F Yanka Kupala state University of Grodno, Belarus ORCID 0000-0001-6165-6757

THE IMPACT OF THE ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT ON THE OF TRANSCAUCASIA

WPŁYW KONFLIKTU ARMEŃSKO- -AZERBERDŻAŃSKIEGO W GÓRSKIM KARABACHU NA WZROST GOSPODARCZY ZAKAUKAZIA

Abstract: The article deals with the frozen conflict between two sovereign States in Trans- caucasia: and , which can be undermined at any time due to unresolved issues, and destroy the not only in the region. The purpose of the article is to elimi- 138 Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Humanitas. Zarządzanie nate this conflict with possible instruments aimed at eternal peace and ensuring economic security in the region. During the research, the author used methods such as analysis, syn- thesis, comparison, grouping, etc. The history and causes of this conflict have been studied. In the result of the analysis, it is concluded that the influence of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, today, in frozen form, has a negative impact, primarily on Azerbaijan’s economy since occupied over 20 percent of its territory, and, as a result of oc- cupation, destroyed towns, the entire infrastructure, and there was more than one million refugees. As well as part of the territory of Azerbaijan - the Nakhchivan Au- tonomous Republic-was blocked by Armenia. In turn, Armenia, because of its occupation policy, has also been blocked by Azerbaijan and , and thus does not allow its economy to grow. The Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has also become the main reason that global economic projects in the region have been implemented bypassing Arme- nia. Turkey is the only country in the region that does not have vested interests in the con- flict, and supports and fairly protects the interests of Azerbaijan on all international political and economic platforms. Officially and recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, like all countries of the world, but not enough strongly supported and continue to support Armenia, since both countries have their own political and economic interests in the Caucasus. It was revealed that the fear of war at any time and the existing problems did not affect the leading position of Azerbaijan in the Transcaucasia, and this country could be one of the guarantors of economic security not only in the region, but also in the world. It is determined that if this conflict is resolved by military means, local problems can cause the creation of a world-wide war, since Azerbaijan and Armenia are members of various world organizations-military blocs. Peaceful solutions to this conflict are proposed.

Keywords: the world economy, the interdependence of Economics and politics, ethnogeo- political conflict, regional economic growth

Streszczenie: Artykuł dotyczy zamrożonego konfliktu między dwoma suwerennymi pań- stwami na Zakaukaziu: Armenią i Azerbejdżanem, który może zostać podważony w dowol- nym momencie z powodu nierozwiązanych problemów i zniszczyć gospodarkę nie tylko w regionie. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie tego konfliktu z możliwymi instrumentami zmierzającymi do wiecznego pokoju i zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa gospodarczego w regio- nie. W badaniach wykorzystano takie metody jak analiza, synteza, porównanie, grupowanie itp. Przeanalizowano historię i przyczyny konfliktu. W wyniku analizy stwierdzono, że wpływ konfliktu armeńsko-azerbejdżańskiego na Górski Karabach, dziś w zamrożonej formie, ma negatywny wpływ przede wszystkim na gospodarkę Azerbejdżanu, który zajmował ponad 20 procent terytorium, z powodu okupacji zniszczonych miast, całej infrastruktury i ponad miliona uchodźców z Azerbejdżanu. Część terytorium Azerbejdżanu – Nachiczewska Re- publika Autonomiczna – została zablokowana przez Armenię. Z kolei Armenia ze względu na swoją politykę okupacyjną została również zablokowana przez Azerbejdżan i Turcję, co także nie pozwala na wzrost gospodarki. Konflikt armeńsko-azerbejdżański o Górski Ka- rabach stał się również głównym powodem omijania globalnych projektów gospodarczych w regionie z Armenią. Turcja jest jedynym krajem w regionie, który nie ma własnych kon- fliktów oraz wspiera i uczciwie chroni interesy Azerbejdżanu na wszystkich międzynarodo- wych platformach politycznych i gospodarczych. Oficjalnie Rosja i Iran uznały integralność terytorialną Azerbejdżanu, podobnie jak wszystkie kraje świata, ale niewystarczająco moc- no poparły Armenię, ponieważ oba kraje mają własne interesy polityczne i gospodarcze na The Impact of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict on the Economic ... 139

Kaukazie. Ujawniono, że strach przed wojną i istniejące problemy nie wpłynęły na wiodącą pozycję Azerbejdżanu na Zakaukaziu, a kraj ten może być jednym z gwarantów bezpieczeń- stwa gospodarczego nie tylko w regionie, ale także na świecie. Ustalono, że jeśli ten konflikt zostanie rozwiązany za pomocą środków wojskowych, problemy lokalne mogą spowodować wojnę ogólnoświatową, ponieważ Azerbejdżan i Armenia są członkami różnych światowych organizacji-bloków wojskowych. Proponowane są pokojowe rozwiązania tego konfliktu.

Słowa kluczowe: gospodarka światowa, współzależność ekonomii i polityki, konflikt etno- geopolityczny, regionalny wzrost gospodarczy

Introduction

In the context of globalization and digitalization of the modern world economy, almost every region of our vast planet has points of conflict. Conflicts, problems, and tensions in relations always have a negative impact on the development of the country’s economy, and in the future — the region, and, as a result, the world econ- omy. One of the important reasons for creating a conflict between States is the ter- ritorial claim of one country to another: Nagorno-Karabakh, Crimea, Abkhazia, Pridnestrovie, and so on. unfortunately, there are more and more such examples in the modern economy every time. During the collapse of the , the Armenian country, taking advantage of the instability in the region, entered into collusion with the local authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh, through propaganda, instilling the idea of creating a mythical state “Great Armenia”, hostile to the local population – Armenians against the local population-Azerbaijanis, and presented a territorial claim to Azerbaijan and, thus, created the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, according to scientists A. Yamsky, K. Allahverdiev, R.G. Abdullatipov and a number of other authors, is con- sidered as a conflict between an ethnic group and a state, as ethnogeopolitical, as ethnopolitical123, etc.But, in my opinion, the roots of this conflict have a historically artificial character of creating the sphere of influence of imperialist countries in order to expand, strengthen and retain for many years, and, at the first opportunity, absorbing these countries and depriving them of their sovereignty, which is con- trary to international law of our time. The Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is still the main cause of military discord between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the destabilization of the Transcaucasian economy. According to Swedish scientist Svante Cornell, «of all the

1 R.G. Abdulatipov, Ethno-political conflicts in the CIS: supranational mechanisms of resolution, 1997. 2 K. Allahverdiev, The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the context of retrospective ethno-geopolitics, “Central Asia and the Caucasus” 2009, No 1, pp. 63-74. 3 A.N. Yamskov, Ethnic Conflict in the Transcaucasus: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh, “Theory and Society” 1991, Vol. 20, No 5, pp. 631-660. 140 Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Humanitas. Zarządzanie

Caucasian conflicts, the Karabakh conflict has the greatest strategic and regional significance. This conflict is the only one on the territory of the former Soviet Union in which two independent States are directly involved. Moreover, in the late 1990s, the Karabakh conflict contributed to the formation of opposing groups of States in and around the Caucasus»4.

1. The historical process of conflict occurrence

As we know, it is almost impossible to analyze an economy without a policy, especially one that is based on historical facts. Therefore, it is necessary to answer a number of important historical questions before analyzing the impact of the Ar- menian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on economic development in the region. First, it is necessary to find out whether native Armenians live in the major- ity on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Second, whether there was a statehood, as only some interested Armenian pseudo-historians claim, misleading modernity. All these questions can be answered by studying historical documents of the XIX century that are available in the archives of third countries, such as the Russian Fed- eration and Iran. After reading the documents of the «Gulistan tract» (1813) and the «Turkmenchay peace Treaty» (1828), between Tsarist Russia (the Russian Fed- eration) and Persia (Iran), it can be argued that there was no Armenian statehood in any form in Transcaucasia5. It is also possible to assume that the Armenian popula- tion in this region was significantly in the minority, since there is no mention of this people (ethnic group) before these historical documents. But after the conclusion of these agreements and treaties, at the initiative of Tsarist Russia, from the beginning of the XIX century, the Armenian population periodically moved to the territory of the Iravan Khanate (Yerevan), the Karabakh Khanate (Nagorno-Karabakh) and the khanate (Baku) from the territory of Persia (Iran) and Syria6;7;8;9;10 (Figure 1).

4 S.E. Cornell, Azerbaijan Since Independence, Routledge 2011, p. 35. 5 http://www.vostlit.info/Texts/Dokumenty/Kavkaz/xix/1800-1820/Prisoed_vost_armenii_II/281-300/286.htm; http://www.vostlit.info/Texts/Dokumenty/Kavkaz/xix/1820-1840/Griboedov_A_S/peresel_arm_1828.htm 6 I. Chopin, Historical monument of the state of the Armenian region in the era of its accession to the Russian Empire, St. Petersburg 1852. 7 S.N. Glinka, Review of the history of the Armenian people from the beginning of its existence to the revival of the Armenian region in the Russian Empire 1, 1831. 8 A.S. Griboyedov, Notes on the migration of Armenians from Persia to our regions, 1828. 9 V. Potto, Caucasian wars in separate essays, episodes, legends and biographies, Vol. 3, St. Petersburg 1899. 10 N.I. Shavrov, New threat to the Russian cause in Transcaucasia: upcoming sale of mugani to foreign- ers, St. Petersburg: Rus. meeting, 1911, p. 78. The Impact of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict on the Economic ... 141

Figure 1. Map of the South Caucasus 1919-1920 Rysunek 1. Mapa Południowego Kaukazu 1919-1920

Source: https://yandex.by/images/search?text=rpablik%20of%20map%20AZRBAJCAN%201918-1920&stype- =image&lr=157&source=wiz&pos=52&p=1&img_url=https%3A%2F%2Fde.academic.ru%2Fpictures%2Fde wiki%2F65%2FAzerbaijanDemocraticRepublicMap.png&rpt=simage.

Having settled under the protection and support of Tsarist and then Soviet Rus- sia, the Armenians, after a while, began to terrorize the local population-Azerbai- janis, and then attempt their lives and engage in ethnic cleansing, by expelling the indigenous population from their historical homeland, committing numerous gen- ocides. Thus, at the beginning of the XX century, with the help of the Soviet Union, a state – Armenia-was created on the territory of the Iravan Khanate. And then, in order to defuse the situation, the Soviet government, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh under the AzSSR, gave it autonomy, thereby enabling the countdown of the “time bomb”. In the same period, Arsr was transferred Zangezursky Mealsto and Getche, which separates the SSR from the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic1112 (Figure 2).

11 Sh. Barlas, Turkestan and the South Caucasus. XIX-XX centuries Dashnaks from Ferghana to Karabakh, Tashkent 2015. 12 A. Ruzinsky, If there were no Russia, there would be no Armenia – recognition of the former commander of the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri in 1994. 142 Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Humanitas. Zarządzanie

Figure 2. Results of the Armenian aggression of 1988-1994 Rysunek 2. Wyniki agresji Ormian z lat 1988-1994

Source: https://yandex.by/search/?clid=9582&text=Results%20of%20the%20Armenian%20 aggression%20of%201988-1994..&l10n=ru&rdrnd=491593&lr=157&redircnt=1583234250.1.

During the collapse of the Soviet Union, in the late 1980s, more than 300000 Azerbaijanis were expelled from the territory of Armenia, and, with the help of the Soviet army, in the early 1990s, Nagorno-Karabakh and 7 surrounding areas were occupied. During the occupation, local civilians – children, women and the elderly- were brutally and perversely killed, and the most bloody and merciless tragedy in the history of mankind was the Khojaly genocide. In the book “Black garden” by the British journalist and expert on the Caucasus, Thomas de Waal, published in 2003, was published a cynical recognition of the then “field commander”, the for- mer President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan that the Armenian population in Khojaly, the Armenians staged to intimidate Azerbaijanis: “Before Khojaly, the Azerbaijanis thought that we could joke, they thought that the Armenians could not raise their hand against the civilian population. We managed to break this “stereotype”. This is what happened”13.

13 T. de Waal, Black garden. Armenia and Azerbaijan between peace and war, New York University, New York 2003, p. 353. The Impact of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict on the Economic ... 143

The current Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, always cynically refers to the concept of «the right of the people to self-determination», ignoring the prin- ciple of territorial integrity of the sovereign state of Azerbaijan. And when the local population (Azerbaijanis) were expelled from their native land - the territory of mod- ern Armenia and the occupied territories of Azerbaijan-the Armenian people and the authorities for some reason did not even remember the same concept of «the right of the people to self-determination». Pashinyan also refers to the «Sumgait pogroms» to justify the violence14. But, I would like to note that, first, the chronology of these events excludes Pashinyan’s justification, since the «Sumgait pogroms» occurred after the -ex pulsion of Azerbaijanis from Armenia, and, secondly, these pogroms were arranged by the KGB of the USSR with the help of representatives of the Armenian people themselves, which is confirmed by the recognition of the Soviet investigator Vladimir Kalinichenko, who investigated this «case». The purpose of these «pogroms» was to increase the incitement of hatred between Armenians and Azerbaijanis in order to distract them from the main problem15. And the main problem at that time was the loss of control and sphere of influence over these States. As a result of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, more than 20% of the territory of Azerbaijan was occupied, and as a result of the occupation, set- tlements and all infrastructure were destroyed, and more than a million Azerbaijani refugees appeared. In 1994, a ceasefire was reached under the Bishkek agreement. The UN security Council adopted 4 resolutions requiring the immediate and uncondi- tional return of the occupied territories, but, unfortunately, more than 25 years have passed, and all the decisions taken remain on paper without implementation.

2. The role of the modern economy of Azerbaijan in the Caucasus and the world

Despite all the difficulties, the modern Republic of Azerbaijan has found the strength, using the national energy heritage, under the leadership of the national leader – Heydar Aliyev, to begin to pursue a sovereign economic policy and develop the country’s economy. The only hasty policy, in my opinion, is the untimely of state prop- erty inherited after the collapse of the USSR, which led to the unjust enrichment of individuals and, thus, allowed the development of social inequality. But even this negative moment in the economy did not significantly affect the level of poverty of the population of Azerbaijan relative to the neighboring countries of Transcauca-

14 Interview with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the opening of the II Paris peace forum, 2019. 15 S. Kadyrova “about the Sumgait events from the first hand” – interview with the senior investigator for particularly important cases at the General Prosecutor’s office of the USSR from 1980 to 1992. 144 Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Humanitas. Zarządzanie sia. According to the , the poverty level that characterizes the country’s economy is 29% in , 28% in Armenia, and less than 10% in Azerbaijan, taking into account more than a million refugees. In recent years, there has been a positive trend in economic sectors in Azerbaijan. In particular, in 2018, growth was recorded in agriculture (4.6%), as well as in trade and services (2.7%), and real incomes of the population increased by 6.7%. According to the state program, the improvement of infrastructure in the regions is financed every year. The country’s stable and developing economy makes it more attractive for investors. Investments in the real sector of the economy are growing every year. The Russian Federation alone has invested $ 4.6 billion, and banks have lent about $ 1 billion in deindustri- alization for projects. In a short time, three satellites were successfully put into orbit and telecommunications facilities were laid along the bottom of the that connect Europe with Asia16. Taking advantage of its ideal geographical location, the current authorities, un- der the leadership of President of the Republic of Azerbaijan , have implemented world — scale transport projects: «North — South», «North — West» and «East-West». Azerbaijan is the only country in the region that takes part in all the above-mentioned projects, and has initiated and financed sections of railway lines related to these projects in some neighboring countries. The newly created transport corridors have opened up the possibility of free movement of goods and services and, in this way, have given impetus to the development of the competi- tiveness of European and Asian producers, as well as improved consumer access to these products and services. Already in its short existence, all projects have justified the effectiveness of the invested funds, and they have a huge potential for devel- opment for many years. The North-South transport corridor is the most optimal transport link from the Baltic States to , and the commodity market for trans- ported goods is estimated at more than 25 million tons per year. The Baku-- Kars railway (BTK), commissioned in 2017, was the missing link in the ancient project, which links Asia with Europe and is a profitable alternative East — West corridor. In the construction of the BTK railway, the Azerbaijani country was not only the initiator, but it also financed a significant part of the railway tracks in Georgia. The dynamics of transport along this corridor, after its commissioning, has been actively growing every year and, for such a short existence, prevails more than 17 million tons of goods per year. This transport link will also serve as another «lifeline» for the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, which is under blockade by Armenia.

16 Speech by Ilham Aliyev at the XVI annual meeting Of the Valdai international discussion club, Sochi 2019. The Impact of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict on the Economic ... 145

3. The impact of the conflict on the implementation of economic projects in the region

All implemented projects have a huge potential for development, as they reduce the distance and time of transported products, which, in turn, allows you to reduce the cost of goods and services and, thus, improve the well-being of people not only in the region, but also to ensure economic security throughout the world. Naturally, the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict made its adjustments in the implementation of these projects, not in favor of the territory and population of the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and the 7 enclosing regions of Azerbaijan and Arme- nia, despite its favorable location. According to the statistics Committee of Azerbaijan, there is a dynamics of GDP growth after the global crisis, which reached 4722 dollars by 2019. US per capita, which is ahead of Armenia ($4182). USA) and Georgia ($4346 USA). The dynamics of exports and imports of goods and services from the Transcaucasian countries, as shown in table 1 and figure 3, shows a significant advantage of Azerbaijan over Armenia and Georgia. Institutional reforms in Azerbaijan have also produced re- sults and improved the country’s position in the ranking of authoritative interna- tional institutions. According to WB Doing Business, Azerbaijan is ranked 25th and ahead of Armenia (41st place), but behind Georgia (6th place). In the Forbes Best countries for Business ranking, Azerbaijan (70th place) also found itself in a win- ning position relative to Armenia (81st place), but still behind Georgia (44th place). The dynamics of the growth of exports and imports of goods and services of the Transcaucasian countries in recent years, reflected in Table 1 and Figure 3, shows a significant quantitative advantage of Azerbaijan over Armenia and Georgia. For the current year 2019, there is also a positive trend in all sectors of the econ- omy. In the first half of the year, the economy grew by 2.1%, including 3.5% in the non-oil sector, 14% in the non - oil industry, and 7% in agriculture. I would like to note that the fear of war at any moment, the loss of more than 20% of the territory and the presence of more than 1 million refugees, did not affect the leading position of Azerbaijan in Transcaucasia. It can be assumed that, without these problems, this country could be one of the countries that guarantee economic security not only in the region, but also in the world (Table 1, Figure 3). 146 Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Humanitas. Zarządzanie

Table 1. The dynamics of the growth of export and import of products and services of the Transcaucasian countries in 2016-2018 in billion dollars USA Tabela 1. Dynamika wzrostu eksportu i importu produktów i usług krajów zakaukaskich w latach 2016-2018 w miliardach dolarów USA 2016 2017 2018 export import balance export import balance export import balance Azerbaijan 13,5 8,5 5,0 15,3 8,8 6,5 19,5 11,5 8,0 Armenia 1,8 3,3 -1,5 2,2 4,1 -1,9 2,4 5,0 -2,6 Georgia 2,1 7,3 -5,2 2,7 7,9 -5,2 3,4 9,1 -5,7

Source: own development according to the statistical committees: https://www.stat.gov.az, https://www.armstat.am/ru/, https://www.geostat.ge/en.

Figure 3. The dynamics of the growth of export and import of products and services of Azer- baijan, Armenia and Georgia for 2016-2018 Rysunek 3. Dynamika wzrostu eksportu i importu produktów i usług Azerbejdżanu, Arme- nii i Gruzji w latach 2016-2018 25

20

15 Azerbaijan 10 Armenia 5 Georgia 0 export import balance export import balance export import balance -5 2016 2017 2018 -10

Source: own development according to the statistical committees: https://www.stat.gov.az, https://www.armstat.am/ru/, https://www.geostat.ge/en.

Turkey is the only country in the region that does not have vested interests in the conflict, and supports and fairly protects the interests of Azerbaijan on all in- ternational political and economic platforms. Officially, Russia and Iran recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, as well as all the countries of the world, but at the same time they supported Armenia in every possible way and continue to sup- port it, since both these countries have their own political and economic interests in the Transcaucasia. For example, by placing its military base close to the border with Turkey on the territory of Armenia, as a member of the CSTO, Russia, repre- sented by Armenia, has an Outpost relative to NATO military bases, since Turkey The Impact of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict on the Economic ... 147 is a member of NATO. In addition, the main key infrastructure in Armenia is con- trolled and managed by Russia, especially in the energy sector. And Iran is afraid of connecting part of its territory (southern Azerbaijan) with modern Azerbaijan (Northern Azerbaijan), which was historically divided and captured during the war with Tsarist Russia in the XIX century. Connection is not excluded, especially if Azerbaijan does not have a conflict, and will continue to develop successfully eco- nomically and politically. Moreover, history has a similar example of a connection: the German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of .

4. Economy in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan

The economy in the occupied Azerbaijani territories of Nagorno-Karabakh and in the 7 surrounding regions is supported by the help of Armenian diasporas living in various countries. This assistance is self-serving and is aimed at making a profit for personal purposes, not to improve the quality of life of the population living in these places. Basically, Finance is invested in the extractive sector of the economy, which brings a quick income with minimal investment, as evidenced by the ratio of income growth and GDP growth rate and the reasonable discontent of local resi- dents. In order to save money, Azerbaijani prisoners of the Karabakh war are forci- bly forced to work in natural fields for mining. By the way, I would also like to note that among these individuals there are also captured Azerbaijanis-Russian citizens who visited the graves of their ancestors and relatives after the ceasefire agreement17. Almost the entire territory of the occupied Azerbaijani lands of Nagorno-Kara- bakh and the 7 surrounding regions, as a result of the war, has turned into ruins and needs to be revived, restored and improved. Because of the need to return the oc- cupied lands as soon as possible, the local illegal government and foreign so-called «investors» do not think about these issues. On the contrary, these same individuals, using their influence and opportunities, undermine any attempts to resolve the con- flict for their further profit, to the detriment of the local population. Also, in order to maintain geopolitical influence in Transcaucasia, some countries with imperialist views are also not interested in resolving this conflict. It should be borne in mind that if the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict does not find a peace- ful solution, in accordance with international law and accepted documents within the framework of the OSCE and the UN Charter, the Azerbaijani country has the right to liberate its occupied territories by any means, including military means. If it is solved by military means, local problems can cause a world-wide war, since Azer- baijan and Armenia are members of various world organizations-military blocs.

17 https://az.sputniknews.ru/karabakh/20180309/414370198/plennye-azerbajdzhancy-armenia-rezoljucii- sboon.html, https://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/blogs/83781/posts/35998. 148 Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Humanitas. Zarządzanie

Therefore, if there is an urgent need to resolve the conflict by military means, then other States that are allies of the military blocs should not interfere in the internal Affairs of Azerbaijan, so that the local conflict does not become a world problem.

Summary

Thus, according to the above analysis, it can be concluded that the influence of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, currently in a frozen form, has a negative impact only on the economy of Azerbaijan, since more than 20% of its ter- ritory has been occupied, and as a result of the occupation, settlements and all infra- structure have been destroyed, and more than a million Azerbaijani refugees have ap- peared. Because of the possibility of a conflict breaking out at any time, it can cause the destruction of countries not only in the region, but, in consequence, all over the world. Therefore, a peaceful solution to the problem is necessary, and this should be of interest not only to the conflicting parties, but also to the world community. It is determined that the fear of war at any time did not affect the leading position of Azerbaijan in Transcau- casia. It can be assumed that, without these problems, this country could be one of the countries that guarantee economic security not only in the region, but also in the world. In my opinion, the peaceful resolution of the conflict requires the intervention of the in- ternational community and organizations not only by making a written decision on the withdrawal of Armenian troops and gangs from the occupied lands of Azerbaijan, but also by taking concrete actions. For example, the condemnation of official representa- tives of the authorities of the Armenian Republic and the so-called «Nagorno-Karabakh Republic» on all world political and economic platforms (events), the introduction of economic and political sanctions against the Republic of Armenia as a whole, as an oc- cupying country, as well as to citizens of any country that are directly related to financial transactions in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. And it is necessary to maintain the adopted sanctions against the country and these individuals until this conflict is resolved. However, if the measures taken do not yield their results for uncertain reasons, and there is still an urgent need to resolve the conflict by military means, then other States that are allies of the military blocs should not interfere in the internal Affairs of Azerbaijan, so that the local conflict does not become a world problem.

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Author’s resume: Farman Yusubau, Ph.D. in Economics – works in the field of international cooperation, in particular, specializes in the development of a mechanism for the development of bilateral economic cooperation between Belarus and Azerbaijan.

Nota o Autorze: Farman Yusubau – doktor nauk ekonomicznych. Działa w dziedzinie współpracy międzyna- rodowej, w szczególności specjalizuje się w opracowaniu mechanizmu rozwoju dwustronnej współpracy gospodarczej między Białorusią a Azerbejdżanem.

Contact/Kontakt: Farman Yusubau, Ph.D. Yanka Kupala State University of Grodno, Faculty Of International Economic Cooperation, Department Of International Business And Marketing, 23 Gasparchaya str., Grodno, Belarus e-mail: [email protected]