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African Security in 2013: a Year of Disequilibrium? by Morten Bøås with James J

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African Security in 2013: a Year of Disequilibrium? by Morten Bøås with James J Report April 2013 African security in 2013: a year of disequilibrium? By Morten Bøås with James J. Hentz Executive summary Africa’s security is currently standing at a crossroads. Relatively high African growth rates in combination with the increased institutional strength, credibility and legitimacy of the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have led to greater confidence in Africa’s ability to deal with its security challenges. However, the continent is also confronted with significant security challenges that could have severe ramifications across several countries and regions. This is vividly illustrated by the attack against the gas plant at In Aménas in Algeria. This well- planned attack occurred a few days after the French intervention in the conflict in Mali. As a force for disequilibrium the attack and its tragic consequences have dramatically transformed the security dynamic of the whole Sahel region and the many local conflicts in the area. In 2013 the Sahel could become the epicentre of the next episode in the so-called “war on terror”, and the outcome of the conflict there is far from certain: a decisive military victory is unlikely in this desert and mountainous region. This report analyses the security trends, scenarios and dynamics in Africa, describing and identifying issues and hotspots likely to manifest themselves in 2013 by focusing on five broad and interlinked regional scenarios: West Africa and the Sahel; the Horn of Africa; and Central, East and Southern Africa. The report will to a lesser extent comment on the role, power relations and dynamics of the AU and subregional organisations such as ECOWAS, the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the Southern African Development Community in the quest for peace and security on the continent. Security cannot be seen in isolation from economic issues, so the economic outlook for Africa in 2013 is also briefly addressed. External actors are still playing an important role on the African continent and their relationship to African security is also addressed. The focus is on the role of traditional African external players such as France et al., but also on emerging powers such as Brazil, China, India, Russia, Qatar and Turkey. The importance of the latter group of countries is clearly increasing, but as the French intervention in Mali vividly shows, it is still the traditional external powers that assume leadership roles in times of dire crisis. It is hard to envision that, for example, Brazil, China, India or Turkey would assume the kind of role in the immediate future that France took in northern Mali. The report concludes by highlighting processes and dynamics that are of particular importance to Norway and Norwegian interests in Africa. NOREF Report – April 2013 Economically speaking Africa, also bounced back after Introduction: a note on Africa’s regions experiencing the combined negative economic effects of This report analyses the security trends, scenarios and the global financial crisis and the uprisings in North Africa, dynamics in Africa, describing and identifying issues and where economic growth virtually stagnated in 2011. Growth hotspots likely to manifest themselves in 2013 by focusing is therefore expected to accelerate to 4.5% in 2012 and on five broad and interlinked regions: West Africa and the 4.8% in 2013, and parts of this growth are being reinvested Sahel, the Horn of Africa, Central Africa, East Africa, and more wisely than in the past, i.e. in infrastructural and Southern Africa. industrial development. West Africa is expected to grow at a rate of 6.2% in 2013, East Africa and Central Africa at Drawing the boundaries between Africa’s regions is neither around 5%, and Southern Africa at 4.5%. As this is taking easy nor self-evident, and some readers may disagree with place during a global economic recession, it is quite the placing of one or two countries for the purposes of this impressive. However, oil-exporting countries will experi- report. For example, it can be debated whether the Central ence most of this growth, whereas those relying on other African Republic (CAR) belongs to Central Africa or the exports and in particular the European market may grow Horn of Africa. But the main issue is not geography as at a lower rate (e.g. Kenya and several West African such, but how geographies of violence and insecurity countries). If Europe’s debt crisis worsens, it could have manifest themselves in Africa. The subregional case severe effects for Africa and affect not only the economy, studies should therefore not be seen in isolation from but also peace and security. There are several reasons for each other or as static signposts on a permanent map, but this, but lower earnings from tourism and exports of goods as dynamic zones. All conflict is locally grounded and it is and services will mean even fewer jobs and less money in important that we acknowledge this, but we also need to circulation. This could come on top of reduced European understand the connections that sometimes – but not aid, foreign direct investment (FDI) and remittances from always – emerge during times of conflict and how these African migrant workers in Europe, and have ramifications connections are positioned within a long-term framework for peace and security issues in several fragile African of histories of both collaboration and conflict across space countries. and time. This is already obvious in the case of the attack on the In Aménas natural gas plant in Algeria. Africa’s share of global FDI is increasing as a consequence of Asian and Latin American demand for natural resources triggering a boom in international commodity prices that 2012: a good or a bad year for Africa? increased resource-seeking investment in Africa. This is In general 2012 was not too bad for Africa. Some new good, but these investments have so far not been trans- conflicts emerged, some old ones returned, but while none lated into greater economic opportunities for the popula- of the existing conflicts found a permanent settlement, no tion at large. The level of job creation is simply still too low, major new ones broke out either, and with one important which is an important issue because Africa has the world’s exception (e.g. the In Aménas affair in Algeria), none of the youngest population and it is growing rapidly. Hundreds of existing conflicts spilled over into other countries and millions of young Africans will be leaving school over the regions in a significant way. next decade looking for jobs that currently do not exist and are not planned for either. Africa’s youthful population is In 2012 the Sahel found itself facing post-Qaddafi repercus- not only increasing, but it is also better educated than ever sions in the form of returning labour migrants and Tuareg before. There is therefore a double potential here, one fighters, but until the first weeks of 2013 even the turmoil in positive, the other negative. If Africa can tackle its employ- Mali remained centred on the northern areas of that country. ment creation needs, this young surplus population could It is noteworthy, for example, that there has been no spillover become a huge economic benefit and a comparative effects so far in neighbouring Niger, which also has a history advantage. However, if African growth does not become of Tuareg resistance against the state. In West Africa, more employment intense, the same youthful population Senegal came through an important test of governance when may become a powder keg of enormous dimensions. President Abdoulaye Wade gave up his attempt to cling to Security may be the main priority in Mali, the Sahel and the power after losing the election. Nigeria may remain caught DRC, but there will never be sustainable peace in these between crisis and world power status, but even the deaths areas without people-centred development that can provide and disruption caused by the Boko Haram rebellion were not economic opportunities to the youthful masses. able to significantly weaken the Nigerian state. Ethiopia must also be congratulated for its handling of the death of Meles As 2012 was coming to its end, an old conflict once more Zenawi in accordance with the constitution, and even if manifested itself. Because it took place in one of the most fighting once more flared up in North Kivu in eastern obscure and little known countries on the continent, i.e. the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the conflict did not CAR, it did not create many international headlines as the spread beyond a few districts. It was never a threat to the sta- rest of the world was preparing for Christmas celebrations. bility of the whole country and in February leaders from the However, for the long-suffering population of the CAR, this Great Lakes Region signed a UN-brokered accord in Addis was important, and because the way in which this rebellion Ababa designed to bring peace to the troubled eastern DRC. manifested itself also says something more general about 2 NOREF Report – April 2013 conflict patterns in fragile African countries, it is worth- concerning citizenship and belonging. while examining what actually happened. This is an issue not only in Kenya, but integral to much The rebellion started in late November 2012 when three conflict on the African continent, whether it comes in the former rebel factions who had signed a peace agreement form of an autochthony-informed discourse or not. It is in 2007 came together under the banner of the Seleka present in Côte d’Ivoire, the DRC and Mali, but also in alliance, accused the government of President François Liberia, Cameroon, Kenya, the Southern African region, Bozizé of failing to honour the terms of the 2007 agreement and even in Somalia (with the issue of the Bantu Somalis).
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