OCCASIONAL PAPER War in Mali Background study and annotated bibliography July 2012 - March 2013 Emy Lindberg www.nai.uu.se ISBN 978-91-7106-736-4 Emy Lindberg Contents Acronyms .................................................................................................. 4 Foreword .................................................................................................. 5 Summary of dominant arguments and perspectives, main themes and divergences .................................................................. 7 Causes and drivers of conflict ......................................................... 7 Solutions.......................................................................................... 8 Involvement of the International community ................................. 8 Humanitarian consequences ........................................................... 9 Divergent themes and notable perspectives ................................... 9 Summaries of the material by date ........................................................11 2012 January .........................................................................................11 May ...............................................................................................11 July ...............................................................................................12 November ....................................................................................13 December .....................................................................................13 2013 January .........................................................................................14 February .......................................................................................18 March ...........................................................................................27 References .............................................................................................. 32 Additional sources .................................................................................. 34 Websites of interest ................................................................................ 34 – 3 – War in Mali - Background paper and annotated bibliography Acronyms AFISMA African-led International Support Mission to Mali AQIM Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb AU African Union COPAM Co-ordination of Patriotic Organisations in Mali ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EEAS European External Action Service EUTM EU Training Mission Mali FDR United Front to Safeguard Democracy and the Republic FRIDE Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior HRW Human Rights Watch IBK Alliance Ibrahim Boubacar Keita ICC International Criminal Court MAA Arab Movement of Azawad MENA Middle East and North African Countries MNLA National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad MOJWA/ MUJAO Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NOREF Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre PKO Peacekeeping Operations RUF Revolutionary United Front UNHCR UN High Commissioner for Refugees UNMAS UN Mine Action Service – 4 – Emy Lindberg Foreword Not long ago, Mali was considered a beacon of stability and a model of dem- ocratic evolution in West Africa. The country then experienced a military coup in the capital in March 2012, followed by the usual post-coup volatility and uncertainty. In the immediate aftermath of the coup, armed insurgents swiftly took over half the country. It did not take long to dismantle a country that on the paper appeared to be functioning, stable and democratic. French troops intervened in the conflict in the north. Yet even if this intervention put a stop to the outright threat of the insurgents taking over the south and significantly shifted the balance of forces in the north, it did not end the conflict. The insurgents have dispersed into remote areas in the sub-region, changing their tactics to terrorist-like activities. Different forms of political negotiation and reconciliation are certainly needed in the region. With the current global clash between radical Islam and the Western “War on Terror”, northern Mali will probably continue to be contested terrain for a long time. In the meantime, a transition to democratic rule is planned for the country, with elections scheduled for July this year. In all likelihood, this will prove to be only an illusory end to an intense power tussle over state control in Bamako. In the following text, Emy Lindberg has gathered material from successive reports covering the conflict in Mali from its outbreak to the present. The text, in providing the conclusions of these reports in chronological order, al- lows the reader to follow the unfolding of events on the ground as well as the interpretations placed upon the crisis by a variety of experts. Mats Utas Head, Conflict, Security and Democratic Transformation Cluster Nordic Africa Institute, Uppsala June 2013 – 5 – Emy Lindberg Summary of dominant arguments and perspectives, main themes and divergences In the papers, reports, blogs and articles presented in this paper, there are a few main themes, which will be summarised in this first section of the background paper on the war in Mali and the international interven- tion. These themes are: Causes and drivers of conflict; Solutions; Involvement of the international community; Humanitarian consequences and Diverging themes and notable perspectives. Causes and drivers of conflict Several researchers point out that many analyses of flict. Actors such as the National Movement for the Mali and the ongoing violent conflict are, and have Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) rebelled because been, deficient. Perhaps this is because the crisis they had been excluded from deals with Bamako was unexpected both to outsiders and to Malians, and President Touré. However, as bargaining posi- as well as to the coup-makers themselves. Many tions changed, they chose to collaborate with France texts argue that the conflict and crisis have been (Boukhars 2013; Lacher and Tull 2013). over-simplified: they were, in fact, the culmination Local grievances are recognised as a motive for of many historical, social and political factors and and driver of the conflict. The rebellion by the Tu- triggers (Boisvert 2012, 2013; Boukhars 2013; Bøås areg and other northern peoples was born not only 2013b; Marchal 2012; Whitehouse 2013a, 2013b). of economic motives but also the failure by ruling This perspective is explored below. elites in Bamako to acknowledge their grievances. State failure, including weak and corrupt insti- Ethnicity is a major factor in Malian conflict dy- tutions, and unfulfilled promises from earlier peace namics both among the Tuareg themselves and settlements are, according to several researchers, between the different communities in the north. among the causes of conflict in Mali (Boukhars Some researchers stress that these ethnic grievances 2013; Bøås, 2013b; Bøås and Torheim 2013; Lebo- have a history of being used in political games. The vich 2013; Marchal 2012). This includes a govern- government uses them to play northern groups and ance system built on patronage in which ruling elites tribes off against each other. Ethnic discourses are in Bamako cooperated with regional power-holders also apparent in the current crisis, in which tensions in the north, in return for stability. They also col- between north and south and within the north are laborated with northern terrorist groups, which growing (Armstrong 2013; Boisvert 2012; Boukhars could safely pursue their economic interests, such 2013; Bøås and Torheim 2013; Guichaoua 2013a; as the extensive trans-border drug trade in the Sahel Lacher and Tull 2013; Marchal 2012; Whitehouse region. It is important to consider these “big men” 2013b). The military coup of March 2012 was also and the informal networks to understand why the built on military grievances with the government conflict in Mali began and continues (Bøås 2013a, (Boisvert 2012; Bøås 2013b; Marchal 2012). 2013b; Bøås and Torheim 2013; Galvin 2012; Several readings apply the concepts of power Guichaoua 2013a; Lacher and Tull 2013; Marchal balance and political marketplace more broadly and 2012; Utas 2012b, 2013a, 2013b). Another cause of emphasise the importance of the regional context conflict is thus identified as economic interests, or to understanding the causes of the conflict. Before greed. Frequently used concepts are elite bargains, the fall of Qaddafi, there was extensive collabora- power balance and the political marketplace. Many tion between Bamako, Algeria and Libya to control writers argue that the main stakeholders in the con- northern Mali. Several of the fighters who formed flict are seeking influence and financial gain (Bouk- the MNLA returned from Libya with weapons and hars 2013; Guichaoua 2013a; Lacher and Tull 2013; ammunition. The wider Sahelian region is also con- Marchal 2012). It is argued that central to the cri- nected to the crisis in Mali, since larger economic sis is a conflict between elites from different ethnic interests, including the trans-border drug and arms groups, which ally themselves with extremists when trade, affects the conflict (Boukhars 2013; Bøås this is considered beneficial to their cause (Lacher 2013b; Bøås and Torheim 2013; Ellis 2013; Guicha- and Tull 2013). At the moment, Bamako lacks alli- oua 2013a; Utas 2012b). The transnational terrorist ances in the north, and this is prolonging the con- groups involved have