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Uganda Deep Dive 2020

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Uganda Deep Dive 2020 Uganda - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 1 of 41 slaves, and an incidence of 7.6/1000 people Uganda � and a “B” response. US Trafficking in Persons Tier 2 watchlist rating. Section 1 - Executive Summary Sanctions & Terrorism: There are no sanctions Grey Lists: Uganda is listed by FATF & is against the country. Uganda is a Tier 2 proposed by the EU on their “Grey” list. (Moderate threat) PPI 2019 (Proliferation) Index Uganda is not listed by the US as a “Country of Country with a “Low” response score of Primary Concern” in respect of ML & FC. 295/1,300. Uganda has a “Low” impact score (3.957/10) in the Global Terrorism Index 2019. NRA: Uganda published its first NRA in 2017, Uganda is included in US Country Reports on with findings that domestically most proceeds- Terrorism. generating predicate offences are corruption, fraud, tax crimes, and counterfeiting of goods. Response & Resilience: FATF MER 4th round In terms of numbers of reported/detected results by ESAAMLG were 50/100 for technical cases, fraud is the most reported/detected compliance (40 Recommendations) & 0/100 crime, followed by tax crimes and corruption. for effectiveness (11 Outcomes). Uganda External or transnational threats are drug scored 3.63/10 for resilience (Low), ranked trafficking, human trafficking, smuggling and 29/54 for Africa in the OC Index. wildlife offences, as well as some elements of Indices: Uganda scored 34/100 and was rated tax evasion. “not free” in the 2019 Freedom in the World Organised Crime: According to the 2019 OC report and 59.5/100 for economic freedom Index, High Criminality - Low Resilience. (Heritage Foundation) described as “mostly Criminality 6.05/10, (ranked 12th highest of 54 unfree”. The Mo Ibrahim Index of African African countries. Main markets are illegal Governance (IIAG) scored Uganda 20th in timber (7/10), illegal mining (7/10), wildlife Africa at 55/100 (2017). The Basel AML Index crime (6.5/10) and drugs (cannabis (7/10). The 2017 ranked Uganda with a score of 7.95/10, main “Criminal Actors” are “Foreign ranked 10/146. Actors” (7.5/10), “State Embedded Overall Ratings: Uganda is rated the 35/40 in Actors” (7.5/10), “Criminal Networks” (6.5/10), SSA and 8/10 in East Africa, with an overall risk and “Mafia Style Groups” (5.5/10). score of 27/100 “Very High” risk, 30/100 “High” Corruption: TI CPI - 2019 - ranked 137/198, level for Threats and 23/100 “Low” level for with a score of 28/100, an improvement from Response, with a “Neutral” trend. 2016, where Uganda had a score of 25/100. Modern Slavery: The 2018 GSI Index: 16/51 FCN Rating: “Very High ” Risk 27/100 African countries, with 304,000 modern day Trend “Neutral” Uganda - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 2 of 41 Section 2 - Country Dashboard Uganda ➡ Neutral Capital & Population: Kampala / 45.7 million approx Political Leader: Yoweri Museveni, President (since 1986) GDP: US$27.4 billion (2018) - 1.7% of the SSA economy. Economic Sector Breakdown: Agri (28%), Ind (21%), Services (51%) Exports: coffee, cotton textiles, flowers, fish and gold to Kenya 17.7%, UAE 16.7%, Democratic Republic of the Congo 6.6%, Rwanda 6.1% and Italy 4.8% (2017). Imports: vehicles, capital equipment, petroleum products, medical supplies and cereals from China 17.4%, India 13.4%, UAE 12.2%, Kenya 7.9%, Japan 6.4%, Saudi Arabia 6.3%, Indonesia 4.4% and South Africa 4.1% (2017). Score: 27/100 “Very High” FCN Risk Rating (Average Country Score is 43 - SSA) Proceeds / Laundering Rank: 35/40 SSA - 8/10 Region EA range 10% - 12% GDP / 70-76% of Proceeds Organised Crime Costs of Corruption range up to approx (State 34 - 36% of Proceeds range up to approx 15 - 20% of Proceeds Embedded 7.5/10, Criminal Actors 6.5/10, Foreign Networks 7.5/10 & Mafia Style 5.5/10) Total Criminal Proceeds in Sub Uganda Higher (Inherent) Risk Factors Saharan Africa in US$ Billions - FCN 2020 (not including fraud and Customer Sector Geography corruption and tax evasion) Risks Risks Risks Customers with elevated Banks (in particular retail Major export / import exposures to criminal and corespondent banks) partner countries (trade activities such as: mispricing via IFFs). Mining Fishing drug trafficking, arms Money remitters, casinos, 10 2.5 trafficking, wildlife dealers in precious metals Near neighbour countries, Wildlife trafficking, human & stones, forex dealers, including DRC & CAR 2 Goods Piracy trafficking real estate & lawyers (gold). 9 & people smuggling, Afghanistan Pakistan, SE fraud, terrorism finance & & hawala dealers. Asia and Western Europe, Logging along with corruption (e.g as source and destination 12.5 PEPs) which also help countries with East African Modern Slavery facilitate these crimes & countries as transit 8.3 tax evasion as a high risk Countries (heroin) & concern also South America (cocaine) Drugs & South Sudan (arms). 3 to Higher Risk Sectors Theft 15 and/or Geography Risks Tanzania, Uganda, DRC, China & Vietnam (wildlife products) & UK (luxury cars). FCN SSA Country Risk Rating - “High” Threats - " GTI GSI INCSR TI CPI US TIP Overall WEF OC US Terror IUUF Index OC Index GFI IFF’s US END Wildlife FCN SSA Country Risk Rating - “Low” Response - " NRA Freedom OC Index FATF 40 FATF 11 Overall Governance GSI - Slavery Proliferation Seizures US$ Basel AML Index FATF/EU Lists Uganda - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 3 of 41 3. Country Information People & Geography: Uganda is a landlocked economy is made up of agriculture 28.2%, country in Eastern Africa, bordered to the East industry 21.1%, services 50.7% and these by Kenya, to the north by South Sudan, to the sectors encompass sugar processing, brewing west by the DRC, to the south-west by Rwanda, tobacco, tourism, cotton textiles & steel and to the south by Tanzania. The country is production as well as financial services, often referred to as ‘the land gifted by nature’ information and communications technology, thanks to it’s diverse landscape which education, hospitality and property encompasses the snow-capped Rwenzori development. Uganda exports coffee, cotton mountains, the Bujagali Falls, the Queen textiles, flowers, fish and gold to Kenya 17.7%, Elizabeth National Park and the immense Lake UAE 16.7%, Democratic Republic of the Congo Victoria, where Uganda’s capital Kampala is 6.6%, Rwanda 6.1% and Italy 4.8% (2017). The located. Kampala is the administrative, country imports vehicles, capital equipment, economic, legislative and judicial nerve centre petroleum products, medical supplies and for the country. Of its 45.7 million population1, cereals from China 17.4%, India 13.4%, UAE Uganda counts some 1.7 million of migrants 12.2%, Kenya 7.9%, Japan 6.4%, Saudi Arabia for 2019, and 735,000 emigrants. 6.3%, Indonesia 4.4% and South Africa 4.1% (2017). Recent History & Leadership: Uganda became a British protectorate in 1894, Environment: According to the Environmental and was given a legislative council in 1921. In Performance Index3, Uganda is ranked 1962 Uganda became independent, with 145/180 countries, with a score of 44.3/100. Milton Obote as Prime Minister. The period since then has been marked by violent Tourism: The total contribution of travel & conflicts, including an eight-year-long military tourism4 to GDP was UGX6,888.5bn dictatorship led by Idi Amin, and a lengthy civil (USD1,913.9 million - 7.3% of GDP in 2017. war against the Lord’s Resistance Army in the The labour force for this sector is more than Northern region. Despite Uganda’s troubled 229,000 in direct employment, representing past, the country has been experiencing 2.4% of the total employment rate in country. consistent economic growth and serves as an Some of the main tourist areas include: the economic hub for a number of neighbouring Bwindi National Park, Baha’i Temple, Fort Patiko countries like the Democratic Republic of the and the Mount Elgon National Park. Congo, South Sudan, and Rwanda. Uganda’s current president, Yoweri Museveni, is the Finance: In terms of remittances, the country country’s longest serving leader, having held has estimated inflows of US$1.29 billion (4.2% the position since 1986. He is also expected to of the GDP) for the year 2019 according to the stand again with the aim to retain his World Bank5. Connectivity-wise6, there is an presidency in the upcoming 2021 elections. internet penetration rate of 24% & 26.83 million mobile connections for the year 2020. Economy & Trade: In 20182, the GDP was With regard to access to the banking system, USD27.4 billion, which represents 1.7% of the 33% of the population over 15 years of age SSA economy. The government revenues hold bank accounts, 2.3% of the population amount to US$3.848 billion. The GDP per (over 15 years of age) have a credit card & 51% capita in 2017 was US$2,400. Uganda’s have a mobile money account. Uganda - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 4 of 41 4. Country Ratings Available information from leading sources produce over 60 ratings for Uganda, covering both threats and responses in fighting financial crime, sanctions, proliferation finance and terrorism & terrorism finance. Source Uganda � Source Uganda � Source Uganda � World Economic Forum 46.8 / 100 Transparency International (TI) 28 / 100 Proliferation Index - PPI Tier 2 Organised Crime Index* Corruption Perceptions Index* (137/198) Threat Moderate Threat Level OC Index 6.05/10 TI & Afrobarometer 46% Proliferation Index - PPI 295/ 1300 Criminality* Citizens Views and Experiences of Corruption Overall Bribery Rate Controls* Controls score Report OC Index 6.75/10 TRACE 58 Global Terrorism Index 3.957/10 Criminal Actors Bribery Risk Matrix (130/200)
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