The Least Cost Generation Plan 2016
THE LEAST COST GENERATION PLAN 2016 – 2025 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2013, the Authority developed a 5 year Least Cost Generation Plan (LCGP) that covered the period 2013 to 2018. An update of the LCGP has been undertaken covering a 10 year period of 2016 to 2025. The update involved review of the load forecast in light of changed parameters, commissioning dates for committed projects, costs of generation plants, transmission and distribution system investment requirements. In the update of the plan, similar to the Power Sector Investment Plan, prepared by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, the ”Econometric Demand” forecasting method was used at distribution level to forecast Commercial, Medium Industry and Large Industry customer category demand. A bottom up approach was used for Domestic customer category using the end-user method. A Base Case, Low Case and High Case scenario were developed for sensitivity analysis. The resultant demand forecast was 6.5%, 3.6% and 12% growth rate in energy demand for the Base Case, Low Case and High Case scenarios respectively. This growth rate is lower than the projection in the 2013 LCGP of 10%, 5% and 14% for Base Case, Low Case and High Case respectively. A number of energy supply options were considered including Hydro, Peat, Solar PV, Bagasse Cogeneration, Wind and Natural Gas. The planned supply considered already existing, committed and candidate generation plants/projects with their estimated commissioning dates aligned. We note that more than 80% of the generation will come from hydro. 1 In the demand supply balance, Figure E1 shows the demand and supply balance over the planning period.
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