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City of Brimbank City of Brimbank Population and household forecasts 2011 to 2036 population forecast Compiled and presented in forecast.id®. http://forecast.id.com.au/brimbank Table of contents About the areas 1 Drivers of population change 3 Population summary 4 Population, households and dwellings 6 Age structure 9 Household types 11 Components of population change 13 Residential development 15 Migration 16 Non-private dwellings 17 Births and deaths 18 About the forecasts 19 Causes of population change 21 About household and suburb life cycles 23 Forecast modeling process 26 Notes on base data 27 Glossary 30 About the areas The City of Brimbank is located in Melbourne's western and north western suburbs - 11 to 23 kilometres west and north west of the Melbourne GPO. Important Population 2013 Population 2036 Change 2013/36 Statistics 193,408 209,530 8.34% forecast.id 2010 forecast.id 2010 forecast.id 2010 City of Brimbank Legend City of Brimbank Small areas St Albans Local Areas Map data ©2013 Google - Terms of Use Report a map error Page 3 of 32 Drivers of population change The City of Brimbank went through its first rapid growth phase after the Second World War with the development of many suburbs around the original settlements at Keilor, Sunshine and St Albans. The primary housing market role that the City of Brimbank played during this period was to provide home owning opportunities for families and prospective families within the western suburbs of Melbourne. The importance of the City of Brimbank within the western suburban housing market of Melbourne has continued. There is significant pressure for residential expansion within Brimbank from both existing residents and from migrants, most notably from overseas, as well as areas to the east (in particular the Cities of Maribyrnong and Moonee Valley). It is assumed that a number of these patterns will continue into the future, notably flows into the City of Brimbank from the east and from overseas, as well as loss of population to areas within Melton Shire (Caroline Springs, Taylors Hill etc.). As residential opportunities are exhausted in Sydenham-Hillside and Delahey, newer development fronts in the southern areas of Brimbank, such as at Cairnlea, Deer Park, Derrimut and Sunshine North will increase in importance. The attraction of the area is a reflection on the significant amount of residential housing opportunities and the affordability of the area, relative to areas closer to central Melbourne. Local demand is relatively strong as the age structure of the City is conducive to producing large number of new households. This is due to the fact that there are large numbers of older children (late teens, twenties and even thirties) expected to leave home over the coming years. With the varied development phases and the overall size of the City, different areas within Brimbank have developed different roles within the housing market. Areas such as Keilor and Taylors Lakes are attractive to mature families looking to upgrade to their second and third home. Albion, Sunshine and St Albans have a significant component of rental housing, which attracts a large share of overseas migrants, as well as a more youth-oriented market, seeking affordable housing opportunities. Delahey and Sydenham-Hillside are just completing their rapid suburban growth cycles, while other areas such as Albanvale, Kings Park and Keilor Park were developed rapidly in previous decades. The variety of function and role of the City of Brimbank's suburbs means that population outcomes differ significantly across the municipality. There are also significant differences in the supply of residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and household futures within the City over the next five to ten years. Significant new 'greenfield' opportunities have been identified in Derrimut, Deer Park, Sunshine West and Sunshine North while there are some more moderate opportunities in Delahey and Taylors Lakes. Other areas such as St Albans (West), St Albans (East), Sunshine and Taylors Lakes are expected to have some growth in dwellings, but based predominantly on infill of vacant lots and more intense use of land. The Sunshine, St Albans and Sydenham town centres are also expected to experience in-centre residential development over the forecast period. Page 4 of 32 Historical migration flows, City of Brimbank, 2006-2011 Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id The population experts, October 2010. Page 5 of 32 Population summary This table summarises the total population for City of Brimbank and each of its small areas. This enables you to see how population change is affecting different parts of the LGA in different ways. Some small areas may be rapidly growing whilst others are stable or even declining in population. Continue to the forecast results section to see detailed forecasts of dwellings, age structure and household types for each of the small areas. Please note that population numbers in forecast.id for the 2011 base year are derived on from Estimated Resident Population from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. These differ from (and are usually higher than) Census counts as they factor in population missed by the Census and population overseas on Census night. They are generally considered a more accurate measure of population size than Census counts. Population summary Change between 2011 and City of Brimbank Forecast year 2036 Avg. annual Area 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 number % change City of Brimbank 191,084 196,590 201,691 204,100 206,437 209,532 +18,448 +0.37 Albanvale 5,288 5,541 5,555 5,576 5,617 5,665 +377 +0.28 Albion 4,537 4,660 4,722 4,720 4,746 4,785 +248 +0.21 Ardeer 2,967 3,146 3,253 3,336 3,414 3,526 +559 +0.69 Cairnlea 9,205 9,035 8,725 8,591 8,529 8,541 -664 -0.30 Deer Park 17,059 17,376 17,316 17,257 17,230 17,289 +230 +0.05 Delahey 8,853 8,617 9,879 10,182 10,204 10,262 +1,409 +0.59 Derrimut 6,239 8,439 8,249 7,963 7,791 7,690 +1,451 +0.84 Kealba 3,310 3,313 3,348 3,373 3,418 3,472 +162 +0.19 Keilor - Taylors Lakes (East) 7,923 7,863 7,864 7,860 7,900 7,969 +46 +0.02 Keilor Downs 10,805 10,504 10,336 10,284 10,279 10,298 -507 -0.19 Keilor Park & District 2,677 2,722 2,734 2,772 2,783 2,804 +127 +0.19 Kings Park 8,685 8,545 8,501 8,504 8,563 8,645 -40 -0.02 St Albans (East) 22,470 22,733 22,990 23,508 24,009 24,593 +2,123 +0.36 St Albans (West) 14,262 14,368 14,625 15,028 15,489 15,972 +1,710 +0.45 Sunshine 9,273 9,953 11,975 12,729 13,441 14,247 +4,974 +1.73 Sunshine North 11,107 12,166 13,265 13,510 13,439 13,484 +2,377 +0.78 Sunshine West 17,469 18,957 19,294 19,340 19,414 19,481 +2,012 +0.44 Sydenham - Hillside 12,088 12,332 12,159 12,152 12,353 12,574 +486 +0.16 Taylors Lakes (West) & District 16,867 16,320 16,901 17,415 17,818 18,235 +1,368 +0.31 St Albans 36,732 37,101 37,615 38,536 39,498 40,565 +3,833 +0.40 Sydenham District 48,613 47,773 49,275 50,033 50,654 51,369 +2,756 +0.22 Keilor District 10,600 10,585 10,598 10,632 10,683 10,773 +173 +0.06 St Albans District 48,727 48,959 49,464 50,413 51,479 52,682 +3,955 +0.31 Deer Park District 37,791 40,391 39,845 39,387 39,167 39,185 +1,394 +0.14 Sunshine District 45,353 48,882 52,509 53,635 54,454 55,523 +10,170 +0.81 Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id The population experts, October 2010. Page 6 of 32 Population, households and dwellings This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in City of Brimbank. The period 2011 to 2026, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes. It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population. Forecast population, households and dwellings City of Brimbank Forecast year 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Population 191,084 196,590 201,691 204,100 206,437 209,532 Change in population (5yrs) -- 5,506 5,101 2,409 2,337 3,095 Average annual change -- 0.57 0.51 0.24 0.23 0.30 Households 64,760 67,984 70,849 72,676 74,275 75,871 Average household size 2.93 2.87 2.82 2.78 2.76 2.73 Population in non private dwellings 1,285 1,461 1,597 1,716 1,764 2,036 Dwellings 66,227 69,689 72,746 74,641 76,281 77,921 Dwelling occupancy rate 97.78 97.55 97.39 97.37 97.37 97.37 Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id The population experts, October 2010.
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