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Socio – Economic Analysis of the Programme Area

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Socio – Economic Analysis of the Programme Area Socio – economic analysis of the programme area INTERREG NEXT POLAND – BELARUS – UKRAINE 2021 -2027 1 | Table of Contents 1. Summary .............................................................................................................................................4 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................7 Diagnosis of the support area ....................................................................................................8 3.1. General information on the support area .......................................................................8 3.2. Population ............................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.1. Density of population ................................................................................................. 13 3.2.2. Population growth ....................................................................................................... 14 3.2.3 Population structure .................................................................................................... 15 3.2.4 Changes in population ............................................................................................... 17 3.2.5 Migration ......................................................................................................................... 20 3.2.6 Demographic trends .................................................................................................... 23 3.2.3 Summary .......................................................................................................................... 25 3.3 Labour market, education, health ................................................................................... 26 3.3.1 Employment ................................................................................................................... 26 3.3.2 Unemployment .............................................................................................................. 31 3.3.3 Education structure of unemployed persons ..................................................... 37 3.3.4 Free jobs........................................................................................................................... 39 3.3.5 Education ......................................................................................................................... 40 3.3.6 Health ................................................................................................................................ 49 3.3.7 Summary .......................................................................................................................... 59 3.4 Economy, heritage resources and tourism .................................................................. 62 3.4.1 Economy, competitiveness and digitalisation .................................................... 62 3.4.2 Research and development ...................................................................................... 74 3.4.3 Cultural and natural heritage resources ............................................................... 75 3.4.4 Tourist traffic .................................................................................................................. 79 3.4.5 Summary .......................................................................................................................... 87 3.5 Environment ............................................................................................................................ 90 3.5.1 Air ....................................................................................................................................... 90 3.5.2 Water ................................................................................................................................. 94 2 | 3.5.3 Protected areas and biodiversity ............................................................................ 98 3.5.4 Waste management .................................................................................................. 103 3.5.5 Energy and climate .................................................................................................... 104 3.5.6 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 108 3.6 Transport and infrastructure ........................................................................................... 108 3.6.1 Road and rail transport ............................................................................................. 108 3.6.2 Civil aviation ................................................................................................................. 115 3.6.3 Water transport ........................................................................................................... 115 3.6.4 Public transport ........................................................................................................... 116 3.6.5 Border checkpoints .................................................................................................... 117 3.6.6 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 119 3.7 Public institutions, functional areas and cross-border connections ................ 120 3.7.1 Organisation of public administration ................................................................ 120 3.7.2 Cross-border connections, cooperation of local institutions and local governments ................................................................................................................................ 126 3.7.3 Potential functional areas ........................................................................................ 135 4. Main obstacles to cross-border cooperation ....................................................................... 143 5. SWOT analysis of the support area .......................................................................................... 146 5.1 Economy and Innovation ................................................................................................. 147 5.2 Environment and its protection ..................................................................................... 148 5.3 Society and culture ............................................................................................................. 149 5.4 Safety and cooperation .................................................................................................... 150 5.5 Mobility (Digitalization and border infrastructure) ................................................. 151 6. Problem trees and solution trees analysist ......................................................................... 151 Economy and innovation ......................................................................................................... 152 Environment and its protecion .............................................................................................. 155 Society and culture .................................................................................................................... 158 Safety and cooperation ............................................................................................................ 160 Mobility .......................................................................................................................................... 162 List of tables, charts and maps ....................................................................................................... 164 3 | 1. SUMMARY The socio-economic analysis of the support area was developed as part of the Poland- Belarus-Ukraine Interreg NEXT Programme for the years 2021-2027, which is a continuation of over 15 years of cross-border cooperation. The purpose of the analysis is to diagnose major problems and developmental capacity in the support area. This will make it possible to prepare a thematic overview for the new version of the programme along with actions to solve identified problems and ideas on how to take advantage of the potential of the support area. The support area has been characterized in terms of: population structure and trends in the labour market, economic situation, natural and cultural heritage resources, tourist potential, state of the environment and transport connections. Institutions, functional areas and cross-border relations in the area of support were also analysed. In 2018, 19,886,000 inhabitants lived in the support area, of which 31% lived in Poland, 27% in Belarus and 42% in Ukraine. In each country there is a decrease in the population, moreover, this trend will continue in the coming years. The most favourable situation was observed in areas with large cities, as a result of people migrating to cities from rural areas. A natural decrease rate was recorded in the entire Belarusian and Ukrainian parts of the support area and in the Lubelskie Voivodeship in Poland. An additional obstacle is the fact that a large share of people of post-working age in the Belarusian part was noticed. In the Ukrainian part, however, the demographic burden is relatively low. In the upcoming time the main challenges in the programme support area will be: depopulation, natural decrease rates, as well as the negative net migration rate
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