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2020, the YEAR of the SUBURB? RCLCO Monthly Round-Up

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2020, the YEAR of the SUBURB? RCLCO Monthly Round-Up 2020, THE YEAR OF THE SUBURB? RCLCO Monthly Round-Up Gregg Logan, Managing Director Todd LaRue, Managing Director November 19, 2020 TODAY’S PANELISTS Joshua A. Boren Gregg Logan Todd LaRue Director, Business Development Managing Director Managing Director P: (310) 984-1757 P: (407) 515-4999 P: (512) 215-3157 E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected] (Moderator) 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 2 TODAY’S PRESENTATION – FIVE KEY TRENDS 1. The ‘burbs are booming – is it flight or trend or…? 2. Current housing market trends and “flight” 3. Demographic trends and flight • Opportunities for Single Family Rental 4. Rental housing markets national and select markets overview • Stronger rent growth in the suburbs than in urban market areas 5. Homebuilder design responses to pandemic 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 3 THE ‘BURBS ARE BOOMING…IS IT “FLIGHT” OR “TREND”? SUBURBS IN DEMAND • Strong housing recovery especially in lower density single family suburban markets • Low mortgage interest rates • Strongest growth in Starts, Permits, Single Family Homes Sales, in the South, largely suburban and rural; MPC’s performing extremely well • Greater 2020 median home sale price growth in suburban versus urban zip codes in some, but not all top U.S metropolitan areas • Tight inventory, rising costs, drive to lower cost areas • Many rental housing markets show stronger rent growth in the suburbs than in urban market areas • USPS data analyzed by Jeffries show an increase in Move-Outs* in Urban Areas and big coastal cities (NY, SF) especially in areas that are dominated by renters • Drivers: • Pandemic - working from home, desire for space, economics (unemployment, college students moving home) • Long term demographic trends * move-outs = mail forwarding requests 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 5 MIGRATION TO SUBURBS IN NEW YORK USPS Data Indicates Migration out of Urban New York City to Neighboring Suburban Areas SOURCE: Jeffries Migration Report 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 6 MIGRATION TO SMALLER MARKETS Large coastal cities have seen outflows (red), while midsize and small markets like Raleigh, Charlotte, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Austin, San Antonio and Boise have seen inflows (green). SOURCE: Jeffries Migration Report 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 7 NEW HOME SALES RECOVERY CONTINUES Sales of new single-family homes New Home Sales well up over 2019 pace 1200 50.0% ► Seasonally adjusted annual rate 1000 40.0% of 959,000 30.0% ► 3.6 months of supply of new 800 homes at the current pace 20.0% ► Average sales price of $405,000, 600 10.0% $326,000 median price Units (000s) 400 (September) 0.0% ► Drivers: low interest rates, 200 demographic shifts, desire for -10.0% more space - Covid 0 -20.0% ► Strong housing demand and low Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July August Sept supply bad for affordability 2019 2020 YOY Change (2019 - 2020) MOM 2020 Change Source: U.S. Census 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 8 SOUTH REGION LEADS IN NEW HOME SALES 2020 New Home Sales by Region 700 600 500 400 300 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept 100 Northeast 34 43 23 22 32 53 40 42 32 0 MidWest 97 81 74 75 74 79 126 99 93 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept South 391 381 365 332 420 495 561 636 563 Northeast MidWest South West West 252 211 150 141 172 214 238 234 271 Source: U.S. Census 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 9 MORE PEOPLE LOOKING AT LARGER HOMES (ZILLOW PAGE VIEWS) Zillow page view data by home size shows slightly more views for larger homes, which tend to be suburban in (June 2020 to June 2019) Source: Zillow 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 10 2021 FORECAST: CONTINUED STRONG NEW HOME MARKET (SFD) Factors that could alter this forecast: New Single Family Home Sales Trend and Forecast 1000 ► Rising costs – lumber, appliances ► Diminishing lot inventory (particularly 900 lower priced lots) 800 ► Rising Covid-19 cases impact consumers and businesses 700 ► Timing of deployment of a vaccine 600 ► Low interest rates are an inducement 500 to buy homes but slow supply growth and increasing costs will drive up Units (000s) 400 home prices, lower affordability and 300 impact demand 200 100 0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 Source: Fannie Mae 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 11 AFFORDABILITY ISSUES DRIVING MANY TO RENT IN SUBURBS Home prices have continued to rise faster than incomes, leaving many households unable to afford a single-family home and pushing additional households towards single family rentals Home Price to Income Ratio and Median Sales Price United States; 1970-2018 6.0 400,000 350,000 5.0 300,000 4.0 250,000 3.0 200,000 150,000 2.0 100,000 1.0 50,000 0.0 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Median Sales Price ($, RHS) Home Price to Income Ratio (LHS) Source: US Census Bureau; RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 12 EVOLVING LOW-MID DENSITY RENTAL PRODUCT LANDSCAPE Key Examples & Product Type Picture Neighborhood Location Development Strategy Geographic Focus Provide traditional single family product in Suburban SFD (MPC- Greenfield Lifestyle Suburb outlying suburbs or in MPCs. located in AHV Communities Sun Style) Greenfield Value Suburb areas with good school districts, proximate Belt Markets to other single family housing. Single-Story NexMetro, Christopher Alternative to multifamily apartments, Apartment-Style (also Economically Challenged Suburb Todd, Bungalows providing additional privacy and space at a referred to as horizontal Middle-Income Suburb Sun Belt & Rocky similar price point apartment) Mountain Region Greenfield Lifestyle Suburb Provide smaller, lower-priced single family BB Living Suburban SFA Middle-Income Suburb product in outlying suburbs or in MPCs. Sun Belt Markets Located in in-town locations just outside of RedPeak Platt Park Urban/Suburban Infill Stable Urban Neighborhood the urban core offering high-quality product Townhomes SFA or Small-Lot SFD Stable Suburb for lifestyle renters National Located in urban core locations, likely in Emerging Economic Center Urban Rowhome/SFA markets where high-density construction National High End Urban & Suburban isn’t feasible Source: Google Images; RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 13 POPULATION TRENDS The national age composition has meaningful impacts on the types and amounts of housing that people demand across the country, with significant growth expected among ages 30 to 49 and over 65 ► Significant population growth is expected to occur between the ages of 30 and 49. The number of people in this age bracket is projected to grow by 9.7% (8.1 million people) over the next 10 years ► Age when many people historically have gravitated to single family, transitioning from apartments ► Likewise, the number of people over the age of 65 is projected to grow by 32.3% (17.2 million people). Historical, Current, and Projected Population by Age United States; 2010, 2019, 2029 (p) 6,000,000 8.1 Million Additional People Between The Ages Of 30 and 49 5,000,000 17.2 Million Additional People Over The Age of 65 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 2010 2019 2029 Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 14 URBAN VS. SUBURBAN RENTAL MARKETS 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 15 NATIONAL – OCCUPANCY Suburban Urban Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 16 NATIONAL – EFFECTIVE RENT Suburban Urban Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 17 URBAN VS. SUBURBAN EFFECTIVE RENT CHANGE Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 18 AUSTIN – OCCUPANCY Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 19 AUSTIN – EFFECTIVE RENT Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 20 ATLANTA – OCCUPANCY Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 21 ATLANTA – EFFECTIVE RENT Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 22 CHARLOTTE – OCCUPANCY Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 23 CHARLOTTE – EFFECTIVE RENT Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 24 DALLAS – OCCUPANCY Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 25 DALLAS – EFFECTIVE RENT Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 26 DENVER – OCCUPANCY Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 27 DENVER – EFFECTIVE RENT Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 28 HOUSTON – OCCUPANCY Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The Year of the Suburb? | November 19, 2020 | 29 HOUSTON – EFFECTIVE RENT Suburban Urban Suburban - National Urban - National Source: RCLCO 2020, The
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