Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 21St to 30Th October 2020

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL

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ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 60

Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 21st to 30th October 2020

st 21 October 2020

© NOCC October 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC.

ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction

This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n° 60 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 21st to 30th October 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020. This dekad from 21st to 30th October 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a South-West-North-Easterly direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action throughout the national territory, particularly in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions).

II. FORECAST SUMMARY II.1. For Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Waza, Kaele, Mindif, Kousseri, Maga, Yagoua, Bogo, Makari, Maroua, Mora and Mokolo in the Far North region; - Pitoa, Dembo, Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Guider and Poli in the North region; - Tibati and Ngaoundal in the Adamawa region; - Nkoteng, Ngoro, Obala, Bafia, Yoko, Mbalmayo, Eseka, Monatele, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko and Yaounde in the Centre region; - Betare -Oya, Belabo, Ngoyla, Batouri, Mintom, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Lomie, Mindourou and Yokadouma in the East region; - Ambam, Lolodorf, Djoum, Nyabizan, Kribi, Sangmelima, Ebolowa and Akom II in the South region; - Makam and Tonga in the West region; - Mundemba, Buea, Kumba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Idenau, Fontem and Ekok in the South West region; - Melong, Nkondjock, Dizangue, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Mouanko, Loum, Mbanga and Edea in the Littoral region. The following localities have a high probability of registering a decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean. They include; - Mora, Maroua, Bogo and Waza in the Far North region; - Dembo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Poli and Touboro in the region North; - Tignère, Ngaoundere and Meigangain the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai and Moloundou in the East region; - Lolodorf and Akom II in the South region; - Dschang, Mbouda, Bafang and Bazou in the West region; - Benakuma, Santa, Ndop, Kumbo, Fundong and Nkambe in the North West region; - Fontem, Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region.

II.2. For Précipitation A high probability of recording rainfall amounts much higher than historic values recorded for the same period and those recorded in the dekad of 11-20 October 2020 in the following localities: - in the South region (Campo, Akom II, Ebolowa, Nyabizan, Ambam, Djoum, Sangmelima, Zoetele, Lolodorf and Kribi); - in the South West region (Mundemba, Nguti, Mamfe, Eyumojock and Kumba); A high probability of recording rainfall amounts higher than historic values recorded for the same period and those recorded in the dekad of 11-20 October at Lomie in the East region. NB1: This dekad from 21st to 30th October 2020 will be marked by very heavy rainfall at Campo, Akom II, Ebolowa, Nyabizan, Ambam, Djoum, Sangmelima, Zoetele, Lolodorf and Kribi (South region); Mundemba, Nguti, Mamfe, Eyumojock and Kumba (South West region), with a high and permanent risk of registering cases of flooding in the flood plains and landslides on the hillsides in some of the above-mentioned localities.

III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th October 2020

1) For precipitation st th NB2: The dekad from 21 to 30 October 2020: will be marked by a significant decrease in rainfall amounts in the Guinea High During this period we expect: Savannah zone (Adamawa region), marking the progressive start of a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone the dry season. A high probability of recording; - very small rainfall amounts in Kousseri, Mora, Maroua, Waza, Bogo, Maga, Mindif, Kaele and Yagoua in the Far North region; - very small rainfall amounts in Rey-Bouba, Lagdo, Pitoa, Garoua, Poli, Tchollire and Touboro in the North region.

This dekad from the 21st to 30th October corresponds to the gradual end of the rainy season and the start of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (North and Far North regions). b) In the Guinean high savannah zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities below those (a) (b) recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Meiganga, Ngaoundere, Banyo, Tibati, Dir, Bankim, Tigeère and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region.

This dekad from the 21st to 30th October corresponds to the gradual end of the rainy season and the start of the dry season in the Guinea High Savannah zone (Adamawa region). c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; - below the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Ngoro, Yoko, Deuk, Nanga-Eboko, Ngambe Tikar and Minta ; around the average in Bafia, Monatele, Mbalmayo and Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) Obala; above the average in Yaounde, Eseka and Nkoteng in the compared to that recorded during the period October 11-20, 2020 (a) Centre region; Source: NOCC, October 2020 - below the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Garoua Boulai, Abong-Mbang, Batouri, Yokadouma and NB 3: Betare-Oya; above the average in Lomie; Around the average in This dekad from 21st to 30th October corresponds to: Ngoyla, Bertoua, Belabo, Messok, Moloundou, Mindourou and Salapoumbe in the East region; - the gradual end of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinea High Savannah - in abundance and around the averages recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Campo, Akom II, Ebolowa, Nyabizan zone (Adamawa region), and as well to the beginning of the dry and Ambam; in abundance and above the averages recorded in the season in the aforementioned regions; last dekad in Djoum, Sangmelima, Zoetele and Lolodorf; in - the extension of the long rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall abundance but below the average recorded in last dekad in Kribi in Forest zone (Centre, South and East regions), characterised by the South region. abundant amounts of rainfall in the South, the southern part of the Centre and East regions. d) In the high plateaux zone A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; This dekad will further be characterized, by a high concentration - below the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October of rainfall amounts during the first five days in the South region 2020 in Benakuma, Ndop, Batibo, Wum, Ndu, Nkambe, Nkun, and the southern part of the East and Centre regions followed by Bamenda, Kumbo, Nwa, Bali, Santa, Fundong in the North West a distinct decrease in the second part of the dekad. region; - below the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October NB 4: 2020 in Bazou, Dschang, Batie, Bana, Bangangte, Santchou, Bafang, During this period we note a high risk of registering cases of Bafoussam, Bamendjou, Foumban, Mbouda, Makam, Foumbot and floods, land/mud slides due to saturation of soils in high risk Tonga in the West region. zones in the South West and South regions. e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; -in abundance and around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in the localities of Mundemba, Nguti, Mamfe, Eyumojock and Kumba; below the average recorded in Buea, Tiko and Limbe in the South West region; - in abundance and around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in the localities of Yabassi, Ngambe, Mbanga, Melong and Loum; in abundance and below those recorded in the last dekad in Edea, Mouanko, Douala, Pouma, Penja, Dibamba, Dibombari, Yingui, Njombe, Manjo, and Dizangue in the 3 Littoral region.

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Makam and Tonga; Based on the historical maximum temperatures averages recorded for this around the historical average in Foumban, Koutaba, Bazou, Foumbot, Massagam, dekad for the period from 1979 to 2018, notably: 31.12°C in the Far North Magba, Mbouda, Dschang, Bafoussam and Bangangte in the West region; region; 30.9°C in the North region; 28.25°C in the Adamawa region; 27°C in -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Buea, the Centre region; 27.28°C in the South region; 27°C in the region East; Kumba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, 24.16°C in the West region; 24.68°C in the North West region; 25.85°C in the Tiko, Idenau, Fontem and Ekok; around the historical average in Nguti in the South South West region; and 25.2°C in the Littoral region; the following maximum West region; temperatures are expected for the dekad from October 21 to 30 2020: - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Melong, Nkondjock, - way above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Waza, Kaele Dizangue, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Kousseri, Maga, Mindif, Yagoua, Bogo, Makari and Maroua; above the Mouanko, Loum, Mbanga and Edea in the Littoral region. historical average in Mokolo and Mora in the Far North region; - way above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Dembo, Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Touboro and Guider; above the historical average in Poli in the North region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tibati and Ngaoundal; around the historical average in Meiganga, Ngaoundere, Banyo and Tignere in the Adamawa region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Nkoteng, Ngoro, Obala, Bafia, Yoko and Mbalmayo, Eseka, Monatele, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko and Yaounde in the Centre region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Betare-Oya, Belabo, Ngoyla, Batouri, Mintom, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang Lomie, Garoua- (a) (b) Boulai, Mindourou and Yokadouma; around the historical average in Moloundou in the East region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ambam, Lolodorf, Djoum, Nyabizan, Kribi, Sangmelima, Ebolowa and Akom II; around the historical average in Campo in the South region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Wum, Benakuma, Bali, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom, Ako, Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Munkep, Nwa and Fundong in the North West region.

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, October 2020)

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020, for the dekad from 21st to 30th October Wum, Benakuma, Bali, Kumbo, Munkep, Bamenda, Santa and Fundong 2020, there is a high probability of registering mean maximum temperatures: in the North West region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in th th - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11 to 20 October 2020 in Mindif, Kaele Mora, Maroua and Yagoua; around the average in Bogo, Tonga, Njimom, Malantouen, Koutaba, Magba, Massagam, Foumbot, Maga, Waza and Kousseri, in the Far North region; Bafoussam, Kouoptamo, Batcham, Bafang, Bangangte, Dschang, Bazou, th th - around the average recorded in the dekad from 11 to 20 October 2020 in Makam, Foumban and Mbouda in the West region. Dembo, Pitoa, Poli, Lagdo, Rey-Bouba, Touboro, Garoua and Tchollire, in the North region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, and Ngaoundal; around the average at Banyo and Tibati in the Adamawa region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Yokadouma, Batouri, Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, Betare-Oya, Belabo and Lomie; around the average in Ngoyla, Moloundou, Abong-Mbang and Bertoua and in the East region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Deuk, Bafia, Ngoro and Obala; around the average in (a) (b) Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Yoko, Monatele, Mbandjock, Messondo, Yaounde and Eseka; below the average in in the Centre region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Ambam; around the average in Djoum, Sangmelima, Kribi, Ebolowa, Zoetele, Akom II, Lolodorf, Nyabizan and Campo in the South region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Kumba and Mamfe, Eyumojock, Tiko, Idenau, Buea, Fontem, Muyuka, Nguti, Limbe in the South West region; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Mouanko and Douala; around the average Dizangue, Melong, Yabassi, Nkongsamba, Bare-Bakem, Loum, Manjo, Ngambe, Ndom, Edea, Yingui, Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) Nyanon, Pouma, Mbanga and in the Littoral region; compared to the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 (a) Source: NOCC, October 2020

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 30th October 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include: - Waza, Kaele, Mindif, Kousseri, Maga, Yagoua, Bogo, Makari, Maroua, Mora and Mokolo in the Far North region; - Pitoa, Dembo, Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Touboro Guider and Poli, in the North region;

- Tibati and Ngaoundal in the Adamawa region; - Nkoteng, Ngoro, Obala, Bafia, Yoko, Mbalmayo, Eseka, Monatele, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko and Yaounde in the Centre region; - Betare-Oya, Belabo, Ngoyla, Batouri, Mintom, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Lomie, Mindourou and Yokadouma in the East region; - Ambam, Lolodorf, Djoum, Nyabizan, Kribi, Sangmelima, Ebolowa and Akom II in the South region; - Mundemba, Kumba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Idenau, Fontem and Ekok in the South West region; - Melong, Nkondjock, Dizangue, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Mouanko, Loum, Mbanga and Edea in the Littoral

region.

b) For Minimum Temperatures -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Wum, Santa, Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same Benakuma, Fundong, Nwa, Bali, Kumbo and Bamenda in the North West period from 1979 to 2018, that is 23°C in the Far North region; 23.4°C in the North region; region; 19.8°C in the Adamawa region; 19°C in the Centre region; 20.2°C in the -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Buea, Muyuka, South region; 20°C in the East region. 17.1°C in the West region; 17°C in the North Kumba, Tiko, Limbe, Bamusso, Eyumojock and Mamfe; around the historical West region; 21°C in the South West region and 21°C in the Littoral region. For the average in Nguti, Fontem, Idenau, and Mundemba in the South West region; dekad from 21st to 30th October we expect minimum temperatures: -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Douala, Mouanko,

-way below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mora, Bogo, Edea, Manjo, Dizangue, Mbanga, Yabassi, Penja and Nkongsamba; around the Maroua, and Mokolo; below the average in, Kousseri, Yagoua, Kaele and Waza historical average in Melong and Loum in the Littoral region. in the Far North region; -below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Poli, Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Dembo and Touboro; around the average in Garoua and Pitoa in the North region; -way below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tignère, Ngaoundere, Meiganga and Mbe; around the average in Banyo and Mbakaou; above the average in Tibati in the Adamawa region; -way above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Ngoro and Bafia; above the historical average in Eseka, Monatele, Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Nkoteng, Nanga Eboko, Ayos, Obala and Yoko in the Centre region; -way below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua-Boulai (a) (b) and Moloundou; below the historical average in Betare-Oya, Abong-Mbang and Mindourou; above the historical average in Belabo, Bertoua, Lomie, Batouri, Ngoyla and Yokadouma in in the East region; -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Campo, Kribi, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum and Zoetele; around the historical average in Nyabizan and Ambam and way below the historical average in Lolodorf, in the South region; -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dschang, Mbouda, Bafoussam, Bafang, Bazou and Bamendjing; above the historical average in Bagangte, Tonga, Foumbot, Magba and Foumban in the West region.

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b)

compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same period.

Source: NOCC, October 2020

Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th October 2020 in Kumbo, recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020, there is a high Benakuma, Fundong, Bamenda, Santa, Bali, Wum, Batibo, and Widikum; probability during the dekad from 21st 30th October of registering average below the average in Nwa in the North West region; minimum temperatures: - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th October 2020 in Nguti, th th - below the average recorded from the 11 to 20 October 2020 in Mora, Mundemba, Tiko, Kumba, Buea, Bamusso, Muyuka and Idenau; below the Waza, Mokolo, Maroua et Bogo, Kaele, Mindif, Maga, Yagoua and Kousseri average at Eyumojock, and Mamfe in the South West region.

in the Far North region; - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th October 2020 in Garoua and Pitoa; below the average in Guider, Lagdo, Dembo, Rey Bouba, Poli and Touboro in the North region; - below the average recorded from the 11th to 20th October 2020 in Banyo, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga; around the average in Tibati and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th September 2020 in Ngoro and Bafia; below the average in Eseka, Nkoteng, Yaounde, Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Yoko, Monatele, Nanga Eboko and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; (a) - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th October 2020 in Belabo (b) and Bertoua; below the average in Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Batouri, Betare Oya and Garoua-Boulai; below the average in, Ngoyla, Yokadouma and Lomie in the East region; - below the average recorded from the 11th to 20th October 2020 in Djoum, Akom II, Sangmelima, Ambam and Nyabizan; around the average in Ebolowa Lolodorf, Campo, Kribi and Zoetele in the South region; - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th October 2020 in Dschang, Bazou and Bangangte; below the average in Mbouda, Bamendjing, Magba, Tonga, Bafoussam, Bafang, Foumban, Foumbot and Makam in the West region; - around the average recorded from the 11th to 20th October 2020 in Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Penja, Melong, Douala, Mouanko, Nkongsamba, Manjo; andYabassi in the Littoral region; Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperature forecasts for the dekad from 21st to th 30 October 2020 (b) Compared to temperature figures registered for the dekad th th from 11 to 20 October 2020 (a) Source : NOCC, October 2020

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 21st to 30th October 2020, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to its historical values for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include:

- Mora, Maroua, Bogo and Waza in the Far North region; - Dembo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Poli and Touboro in the North region ; - Tignere, Ngaoundere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai and Moloundou in the East region;

- Lolodorf and Akom II in the South region; - Dschang, Mbouda, Bafang and Bazou in the West region;

- Benakuma, Santa, Ndop, Kumbo, Fundong and Nkambe in the North West region.

- Fontem, Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region.

9 IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors a) In the agricultural sector: - floods, landslides and mudslides, following a very significant increase in the quantities A high risk of recording cases of: of rainfall and waterlogging in the South-West and Littoral regions; • des truction of crops in smallholder farms and plantations, fruit trees, etc. in the flood - flooding in certain urban areas, particularly in the South-West, Littoral and South regions. prone plains of the North West, South West and Littoral regions due to heavy rains and floods; • degradation of stocks or reserves of agricultural products, as well as other d) In the livestock sector: speculations matured but not yet harvested due to humidity, in the North-West, Centre, A high risk of recording cases of; South, East, South-West, West, and Littoral regions; - numerous cases of epizootic diseases due to a large drop in minimum temperatures in • Post harvest degradation of certain agricultural products (cocoa, egusi, etc.), due to some localities in the southern part of Cameroun, in the West, North West, South West, humidity and low sunshine in the Centre, South, East, Littoral, South West and North Centre, East and South regions; West regions; - degradation of pastures in many localities in the West and North West regions due to • rotting of tubers and roots in the soil due to waterlogging in the North-West, South- rains, which stimulate the growth of weed; West, Centre, East, South, West and Littoral regions; • increased weed proliferation and disease as a result of continuous rainfall in many e) In the water and energy sector: localities in the Centre, East, South, North West, South West, West and Littoral regions; A high risk of recording cases of; • flooding of crops in low lying areas of the North-West, South-West, Centre, South, East, - destruction of electricity production and transmission equipment and materials West and Littoral regions, following intense rains. (poles, transformers etc...) as a result of intense rains accompanied by strong winds, as well as lightning in the South, South West and Littoral regions b) In the health sector: • contamination water catchment areas by polluted runoff in the South, South West,

A risk of recording cases of: West, Littoral, Centre, West and East regions. - an increase in cholera cases in many localities and some large agglomerations in the monomodal rainfall forest zone (Douala, Bakassi, etc.), some localities in the Bimodal rainfall f) In the Public Works sector: forest zone (Kribi, etc.) due to polluted runoff and floods; A high risk of recording cases of: - an increase in cases of other water-borne diseases (yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), -degradation of road works in the South West, Centre, South, East and Littoral following the poor quality of drinking water, in the five agro-ecological zones and regions, due to heavy rains coupled with clogged waste disposal channels; particularly in precarious areas and large agglomerations; -destruction of bridges and culverts in some communities in the Southwest, Littoral, • an increase in cases of respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma Centre, South and East regions due to intense rains. attacks, etc.), in most localities in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones especially in the Centre, South and East regions; g) In the environment and biodiversity sector: • proliferation of malaria vectors in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; High risk of recording cases of: • proliferation of general pathologies, in adults, people suffering from obesity, hypertension, • landslides and/or mudslides due to heavy rains and waterlogging in the Littoral and systemic disorders in children, women in menopause, people suffering from diabetes, in most South West regions; localities of the country during this period. • flooding in the coastal zone, particularly in the localities of Limbe, Tiko in the South c) For the urban planning sector: West region; Douala, Yabassi, Edea, Mouanko, Loum, Mbanga, Penja and Melong in the A high risk of registering cases of: Littoral region, Kribi, Campo, Nyabizan in the South Region, as well as the large agglomerations in the country. - destruction and degradation of edifices and engineering structures, following heavy rains accompanied by violent winds in large conurbations of the South, South West and •accidents caused by trees and/or tree branches falling on roads.

Littoral regions due to heavy rains;

th th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the decade from 11 to 20 October 2020

High Guinean Mono-modal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Far Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre Regions North Adamawa East North Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 23,1 23,3 20,7 19,8 19,6 20 16,3 16,1 21,2 20,3

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ Success rates of Forecasts (%) 81 77 79 78 77 81 80 79 80 78 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 30,5 30 28 27 27 27 23,83 24 26 25,4 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 77 81 80 79 81 77 79 78 82 80 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(mm) 23-53 54-85 86-176 177-179 180-202 203-234 234-241 203-238 233-262 182-204 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 77 91 98 100 100 100 98.6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector ▪ continue the harvesting of certain crops such as roots and tubers etc. according to the agricultural calendar proposed by NOCC.

b) In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly in localities experiencing decreased minimum temperatures during this period; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases.

c) In the livestock sector ▪ pursue organization of vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases in the five agro-ecological zones of the country;

For more information contact, www.onacc.cm BP: 35414 House no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. + (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected], [email protected] or [email protected]