REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 60 Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 21st to 30th October 2020 st 21 October 2020 © NOCC October 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n° 60 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 21st to 30th October 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020. This dekad from 21st to 30th October 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a South-West-North-Easterly direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action throughout the national territory, particularly in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions). II. FORECAST SUMMARY II.1. For Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Waza, Kaele, Mindif, Kousseri, Maga, Yagoua, Bogo, Makari, Maroua, Mora and Mokolo in the Far North region; - Pitoa, Dembo, Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Guider and Poli in the North region; - Tibati and Ngaoundal in the Adamawa region; - Nkoteng, Ngoro, Obala, Bafia, Yoko, Mbalmayo, Eseka, Monatele, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko and Yaounde in the Centre region; - Betare -Oya, Belabo, Ngoyla, Batouri, Mintom, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Lomie, Mindourou and Yokadouma in the East region; - Ambam, Lolodorf, Djoum, Nyabizan, Kribi, Sangmelima, Ebolowa and Akom II in the South region; - Makam and Tonga in the West region; - Mundemba, Buea, Kumba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Idenau, Fontem and Ekok in the South West region; - Melong, Nkondjock, Dizangue, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Mouanko, Loum, Mbanga and Edea in the Littoral region. The following localities have a high probability of registering a decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean. They include; - Mora, Maroua, Bogo and Waza in the Far North region; - Dembo, Rey Bouba, Tchollire, Poli and Touboro in the region North; - Tignère, Ngaoundere and Meigangain the Adamawa region; - Garoua-Boulai and Moloundou in the East region; - Lolodorf and Akom II in the South region; - Dschang, Mbouda, Bafang and Bazou in the West region; - Benakuma, Santa, Ndop, Kumbo, Fundong and Nkambe in the North West region; - Fontem, Mundemba and Kumba in the South West region. II.2. For Précipitation A high probability of recording rainfall amounts much higher than historic values recorded for the same period and those recorded in the dekad of 11-20 October 2020 in the following localities: - in the South region (Campo, Akom II, Ebolowa, Nyabizan, Ambam, Djoum, Sangmelima, Zoetele, Lolodorf and Kribi); - in the South West region (Mundemba, Nguti, Mamfe, Eyumojock and Kumba); A high probability of recording rainfall amounts higher than historic values recorded for the same period and those recorded in the dekad of 11-20 October at Lomie in the East region. NB1: This dekad from 21st to 30th October 2020 will be marked by very heavy rainfall at Campo, Akom II, Ebolowa, Nyabizan, Ambam, Djoum, Sangmelima, Zoetele, Lolodorf and Kribi (South region); Mundemba, Nguti, Mamfe, Eyumojock and Kumba (South West region), with a high and permanent risk of registering cases of flooding in the flood plains and landslides on the hillsides in some of the above-mentioned localities. 2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th October 2020 1) For precipitation st th NB2: The dekad from 21 to 30 October 2020: will be marked by a significant decrease in rainfall amounts in the Guinea High During this period we expect: Savannah zone (Adamawa region), marking the progressive start of a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone the dry season. A high probability of recording; - very small rainfall amounts in Kousseri, Mora, Maroua, Waza, Bogo, Maga, Mindif, Kaele and Yagoua in the Far North region; - very small rainfall amounts in Rey-Bouba, Lagdo, Pitoa, Garoua, Poli, Tchollire and Touboro in the North region. This dekad from the 21st to 30th October corresponds to the gradual end of the rainy season and the start of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (North and Far North regions). b) In the Guinean high savannah zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities below those (a) (b) recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Meiganga, Ngaoundere, Banyo, Tibati, Dir, Bankim, Tigeère and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region. This dekad from the 21st to 30th October corresponds to the gradual end of the rainy season and the start of the dry season in the Guinea High Savannah zone (Adamawa region). c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; - below the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 in Ngoro, Yoko, Deuk, Nanga-Eboko, Ngambe Tikar and Minta ; around the average in Bafia, Monatele, Mbalmayo and Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) Obala; above the average in Yaounde, Eseka and Nkoteng in the compared to that recorded during the period October 11-20, 2020 (a) Centre region; Source: NOCC, October 2020 th th - below the average recorded in the dekad from 11 to 20 October 2020 in Garoua Boulai, Abong-Mbang, Batouri, Yokadouma and NB 3: Betare-Oya; above the average in Lomie; Around the average in This dekad from 21st to 30th October corresponds to: Ngoyla, Bertoua, Belabo, Messok, Moloundou, Mindourou and Salapoumbe in the East region; - the gradual end of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian - in abundance and around the averages recorded in the dekad from zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinea High Savannah 11th to 20th October 2020 in Campo, Akom II, Ebolowa, Nyabizan zone (Adamawa region), and as well to the beginning of the dry and Ambam; in abundance and above the averages recorded in the season in the aforementioned regions; last dekad in Djoum, Sangmelima, Zoetele and Lolodorf; in - the extension of the long rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall abundance but below the average recorded in last dekad in Kribi in Forest zone (Centre, South and East regions), characterised by the South region. abundant amounts of rainfall in the South, the southern part of the Centre and East regions. d) In the high plateaux zone A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; This dekad will further be characterized, by a high concentration th th of rainfall amounts during the first five days in the South region - below the average recorded in the dekad from 11 to 20 October 2020 in Benakuma, Ndop, Batibo, Wum, Ndu, Nkambe, Nkun, and the southern part of the East and Centre regions followed by Bamenda, Kumbo, Nwa, Bali, Santa,