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Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 21St to 30Th September 2020

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Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 21St to 30Th September 2020 REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC-NOCC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 57 Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 21st to 30th September 2020 September 2020 © ONACC September 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). Production Team (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. E ng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I.Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°57 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 21st to 30th September 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment th th st th of the forecasts made for the dekad from 11 to 20 September 2020. This dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a south-west-north-easterly direction II. FORECAST SUMMARY In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action throughout the national territory, particularly in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions). II.Forecast Summary II.1. For Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Tibati and Banyo in the Adamawa region; - Nkoteng, Yoko, Monatele, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Ngoro, Yaounde, Eseka, Obala and Bafia in the Centre region; - Lomie, Betare Oya, Belabo, Batouri, Mbintom, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Abong Mbang, Moloundou, and Mindourou in the East region; - Djou m, Sangmelima and Ambam in the South region; - Wum in the North West region; - Mundemba, Buea, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Idenau, Fontem, Ekok, Nguti and Kumba in the South West region; - Melong, Nkondjock, Dizangue, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Mouanko, Loum and Mbanga in the Littoral region. The following localities have a high probability of registering a decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean. They include; - Mora, Maroua and Bogo in the Far North region; - Tibati, Mbakaou, Mbe, Ngaoundere, Banyo and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - Dschang, Mbouda, Bafang, Bamendjing and Batcham in the West region; - Widikum, Fundong, Kumbo, Nwa, Bali, Bamenda, Santa and Benakuma in the North West region; The localities of Tibati and Banyo in the Adamawa region, have a high probability of recording an increase in daily temperature differences during this dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020. II.2. For Precipitation A high probability of recording rainfall amounts much higher than historic values registered for the same period and those recorded in the dekad of 11-20 September 2020 in the following localities: - Mbanga, Melong; Loum and Penja in the Littoral region; - Bazou in the West region; - Bali and Santa in the North West region; - Mundemba, Kumba, Nguti and Mamfe in the South West region. A high probability of recording rainfall amounts around the historic values and the average recorded for the dekad of 11-20 September 2020 in the following localities - Bafia, Ngoro, Yoko, Nkoteng, Monatele, Obala, Eseka, Mbalmayo and Yaounde, in the Centre region; - Abong-Mbang and Belabo in the East region. 2 NB1 : This dekad from 21st to 30th September 2020 will be marked by; - rainfall amounts much higher than the average recorded during the last dekad in Mundemba, Kumba, Nguti, and Mamfe (South-West region), Bali and Santa (North-West region), Bazou (West region), Mbanga, Melong, Loum and Penja (Littoral region), with a high risk of flooding in some of these localities; - A significant decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the last dekad in the Centre, South and East Regions. This will result in cold spells, with a high risk of registering many cases of respiratory diseases (flu), many cases of rheumatic diseases, as well as respiratory diseases in domestic animals (poultry, pigs, goats, etc.). III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 21st to 30th September 2020 1) For precipitations During this period we expect: NB2: This dekad from the 21st to 30th September will be marked by a significant decrease in rainfall amounts in the Sudano Sahelian zone, a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone Far North and North regions. A high probability of recording; - rainfall amounts lower than the average recorded during th th the dekad of 11 to 20 September 2020 in Kaele, Mindif, Maroua Maga and Yagoua; around the average at Kousseri, Mora, Bogo and Waza in the Far North region; - rainfall amounts around the average recorded during the (a) dekad of 11th to 20th September 2020 in Touboro, Dembo, (a) Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Pitoa, Tchollire and Poli, below the average in Garoua and Guider in the North region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities around those recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th September 2020 in Tibati and Meiganga; lower than the average at Banyo, Ngaoundere and Tignere in the Adamawa region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - higher than those recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th September 2020 in Obala, Monatele, Mbalmayo Eseka, Nkoteng, Bafia, Ngoro, Yaounde and Yoko in the Centre region; - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th September 2020 in Garoua-Boulai Bertoua, Lomie, Betare- Oya, Moloundou, Batouri Yokadouma, Belabo, Ngoyla and Mbintom and above the average at Abong-Mbang and Belabo in the East region; - higher than what was recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th September 2020 in Lolodorf, Djoum, Nyabizan, Ebolowa and Zoetele; around the average in Sangmelima, Akom II, Kribi and Campo in the South region. st th d) In the high plateaux zone NB3: This dekad from 21 to 30 September 2020 corresponds to A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; (1) the continuation of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North - much higher than the mean recorded in the dekad 11th to and North regions), Guinea High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), High 20th September 2020 in the localities of Bali and Santa; PlateauFigure 1: zoneVariations (West in rainfalland North amounts West during regions), the current and dekad in (b)the compared Mono- tomodal that recorded rainfall around the average recorded in the last dekad in Nkambe, Forestduring thezone period (Littoral September and 11 South-20, 2020 West (a) regions). Source: ONACC, September 2020 Fundong, Benakuma, Ndop, Wum, Nkun, Bamenda, (2) the effective start of the long rainy season in the forest zone with bimodal Batibo, Ndu and Nkambe; below the average recorded in rainfall (Centre, South and East regions). This is reflected in the expected the last dekad in Nwa and Kumbo in the North West increases in rainfall amounts in these regions. region; - much higher than the volume recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th September 2020 in the locality of Bazou; higher than the average in Dschang, Santchou, Bafoussam, NB4: During this dekad, because of the already saturated soil, and high rainfall Bamendjou, Bafang and Bangangte; around the average amounts, we note a high risk of recording cases of floods, landslides and/or recorded in, Mbouda, Makam, Foumbot, Foumban and mudslides due to waterlogging and heavy rainfall in the Littoral, North-West Tonga in the West region. (Ndop), West (Foumban, Foumbot, etc.) and South-West regions. e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - much higher than what was recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th September 2020 in the localities of Mundemba, Mamfe, Kumba and Nguti; around the average at Eyumojock and below the average at Buea, Tiko and Limbe in the South West region.
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