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Sharpening EU Sanctions Policy for a Geopolitical Era Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, Clara Portela Sharpening EU sanctions policy for a geopolitical era Publications of the Government´s analysis, assessment and research activities 31/2017 ISSN 2342-6799 ISBN PDF 978-952-287-935-6 Publications of the Government´s analysis, assessment and research activities 2020:31 Sharpening EU sanctions policy for a geopolitical era Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, Clara Portela (eds.) Prime Minister’s Office Helsinki 2020 Prime Minister’s Office ISBN PDF: 978-952-287-935-6 Author and Niklas Helwig & Juha Jokela, Finnish Institute of International Affairs organization: Clara Portela, University of Valencia (Spain) Helsinki 2020 Description sheet Published by Prime Minister’s Office 27 May 2020 Authors Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, Clara Portela (eds.) Title of publication Sharpening EU sanctions policy for a geopolitical era Series and publication Publications of the Government´s analysis, assessment and research activities number 2020:31 ISBN PDF 978-952-287-935-6 ISSN PDF 2342-6799 Website address URN http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-287-935-6 Pages 203 Language English European Union, Common Foreign and Security Policy, sanctions, Brexit, United Kingdom, Transatlantic Keywords relations, International Relations, restrictive measures, economic sanctions, Russia, research, research activities Abstract The European Union (EU) increasingly uses sanctions in order to respond to breaches of international norms and adverse security developments in its neighbourhood and beyond. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of EU sanctions and discusses options on how to maintain them as an effective tool. The study identifies the withdrawal of the UK as one of main architects of the instrument and an increasingly unilateral and unpredictable US sanctions policy as key challenges. In addition, the EU’s machinery for planning, deciding, implementing and enforcing sanctions exposes vulnerabilities in an increasingly geopolitical environment. The current shifts in international relations constitute an opportunity to clarify the strategic nature of EU sanctions and to fine-tune the sanctions machinery. EU unity and a joint diplomatic approach to international crises are vital for the success of the policy tool. Consequently, the efforts to improve the instrument need to ensure member states’ ownership of EU sanctions policy. Our economic analysis of Russia sanctions and countermeasures reveals rather minor macroeconomic repercussions for the EU and Finnish economy. The efforts to sharpen EU sanctions policy is important for Finland as one of the smaller and export oriented countries in the EU given the increasingly turbulent world marked by geopolitical competition. This publication is part of the implementation of the Government Plan for Analysis, Assessment and Research. (tietokayttoon.fi) The content is the responsibility of the producers of the information and does not necessarily represent the view of the Government. Publisher Prime Minister’s Office Publication sales/ Online version: julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi Distributed by Publication sales: julkaisutilaukset.valtioneuvosto.fi Kuvailulehti Julkaisija Valtioneuvoston kanslia 27.5.2020 Tekijät Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, Clara Portela (toim.) Julkaisun nimi Sharpening EU sanctions policy for a geopolitical era Julkaisusarjan nimi Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja ja numero 2020:31 ISBN PDF 978-952-287-935-6 ISSN PDF 2342-6799 URN-osoite http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-287-935-6 Sivumäärä 203 Kieli englanti Euroopan unioni, yhteinen ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikka, pakotteet, Brexit, Iso-Britannia, transatlanttiset Asiasanat suhteet, kansainväliset suhteet, rajoittavat toimenpiteet, talouspakotteet, Venäjä, tutkimus, tutkimustoiminta Tiivistelmä Euroopan unioni (EU) käyttää yhä voimakkaampia pakotteita vastatakseen kansainvälisten normien rikkomuksiin ja turvallisuuspoliittisiin ongelmiin niin unionin naapurustossa kuin kauempana. Tämä tutkimus tarjoaa kattavan analyysin EU:n pakotteiden nykytilasta ja tarkastelee eri keinoja pakotepolitiikan kehittämiseksi. Tutkimuksen mukaan EU:n pakotepolitiikalle tuottavat ongelmia Ison-Britannian EU-ero sekä Yhdysvaltain yksipuoliset ja vaikeasti ennakoitavat pakotetoimet. Geopolitiikan korostunut rooli paljastaa lisäksi heikkouksia EU:n pakotteiden suunnittelu-, päätöksenteko- ja täytäntöönpanojärjestelmissä. Käynnissä olevat muutokset kansainvälisissä suhteissa tarjoavat tilaisuuden kirkastaa EU:n pakotteiden strategista luonnetta ja kehittää päätöksentekoa ja toimeenpanoa. Pakotteiden onnistunut käyttö politiikan välineenä vaatii EU:lta yhtenäisyyttä ja yhteistä diplomaattista lähestymistapaa kansainvälisiin kriiseihin. Kun pakotepolitiikkaa kehitetään, on tärkeää varmistaa jäsenmaiden omistajuus EU:n pakotepolitiikassa. Venäjän vastaisista pakotteista ja Venäjän vastatoimista tehty taloudellinen analyysi osoittaa, että niiden makroekonomiset vaikutukset EU:n ja Suomen talouteen ovat olleet melko vähäisiä. Pienille ja vientivetoisille EU-maille kuten Suomelle EU:n pakotepolitiikan terävöittäminen on merkittävää kiristyvän geopoliittisen kilpailun maailmassa. Tämä julkaisu on toteutettu osana valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimussuunnitelman toimeenpanoa. (tietokayttoon.fi) Julkaisun sisällöstä vastaavat tiedon tuottajat, eikä tekstisisältö välttämättä edusta valtioneuvoston näkemystä. Kustantaja Valtioneuvoston kanslia Julkaisun Sähköinen versio: julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi myynti/jakaja Julkaisumyynti: julkaisutilaukset.valtioneuvosto.fi Presentationsblad Utgivare Statsrådets kansli 27.5.2020 Författare Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, Clara Portela (red.) Publikationens titel Sharpening EU sanctions policy for a geopolitical era Publikationsseriens Publikationsserie för statsrådets utrednings- och forskningsverksamhet namn och nummer 2020:31 ISBN PDF 978-952-287-935-6 ISSN PDF 2342-6799 URN-adress http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-287-935-6 Sidantal 203 Språk engelska Europeiska unionen, gemensam utrikes- och säkerhetspolitik, sanktioner, Brexit, Storbritannien, Nyckelord transatlantiska relationer, internationella relationer, restriktiva åtgärder, ekonomiska sanktioner, Ryssland, forskning, forskningsverksamhet Referat Europeiska unionen (EU) använder i allt högre grad sanktioner för att svara på överträdelser av internationella normer och utmanande säkerhetsutvecklingar. Denna studie ger en omfattande analys av det nuvarande tillståndet av EU-sanktioner samt diskuterar alternativ för hur de kan behållas som ett effektivt verktyg. Studien identifierar två huvudsakliga utmaningar: tillbakadragandet av Storbritannien som en av de viktigaste aktörerna för instrumentet och en ensidig och oförutsägbar amerikansk sanktionspolitik. Därtill avslöjar EU:s apparat gällande planering, beslutande, genomförande och verkställande av sanktioner sårbarheter i en alltmer geopolitisk omgivning. De rådande förändringarna i internationella relationer utgör en möjlighet för EU att klargöra sanktionernas strategiska syfte och finjustera sanktionssystemet. För ett framgångsrikt tillämpande av detta politiska verktyg krävs enighet i EU och en gemensam diplomatisk inställning till internationella kriser. Följaktligen måste ansträngningarna för att förbättra instrumentet säkerställa medlemsländernas ägarskap av EU:s sanktionspolitik. Vår ekonomiska analys av Rysslands sanktioner och motåtgärder avslöjar endast små makroekonomiska följder för EU:s och Finlands ekonomi. Skärpning av EU:s sanktionspolitik är viktigt för Finland, som ett av de mindre och exportorienterade länderna i EU. Den här publikation är en del i genomförandet av statsrådets utrednings- och forskningsplan. (tietokayttoon.fi) De som producerar informationen ansvarar för innehållet i publikationen. Textinnehållet återspeglar inte nödvändigtvis statsrådets ståndpunkt Förläggare Statsrådets kansli Beställningar/ Elektronisk version: julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi distribution Beställningar: julkaisutilaukset.valtioneuvosto.fi Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 14 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................. 14 1.2 Objectives of the study ................................................................................................ 16 1.3 Methods and structure of the research project ............................................................ 17 1.4 Structure of the report ................................................................................................. 18 2 Sanctions in EU foreign policy ............................................................... 22 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 22 2.2 Introducing EU targeted sanctions .............................................................................. 26 2.3 Evolution of EU sanctions ........................................................................................... 27 2.4 Decision-making, implementation and enforcement ................................................... 30 2.5 Evaluating the effectiveness of sanctions ................................................................... 37 2.6 Challenges ahead ....................................................................................................... 43 KEY CHALLENGES FOR THE EU’S SANCTIONS POLICY ............................. 49 3 The
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