Project Ireland 2040 National Development Plan 2018—2027 gov.ie/2040 Project Ireland 2040 | National Development Plan 2018-2027 Foreword 2 Chapter 1: Overview 3 1.1 Context 3 1.2 Introduction 4 1.3 The National Planning Framework and the National Development Plan 7 1.4 The National Development Plan in Context 7 1.5 Cross-Border and Brexit 8 1.6 Housing Challenge 8 1.7 Transitioning to a Low-Carbon and Climate-Resilient Society 9 1.8 Sustainable Employment Challenge 9 1.9 Preparing Ireland for the Knowledge Economy 9 1.10 Role of Public Investment 9 1.11 Expenditure Management Framework 12 1.12 Investment Priorities and the Planning Process 12 Chapter 2: Foundations 13 2.1 Introduction 13 2.2 Review of Existing Capital Plan 14 2.3 Infrastructure Demand and Capacity Analysis 14 2.4 IMF Public Investment Management Assessment 14 2.5 Shareholder Management Framework 16 2.6 Public Private Partnership Review 16 2.7 Conclusion 16 Chapter 3: Resourcing and Funding Reform 17 3.1 Overview 17 3.2 Public Investment Target 18 3.3 Exchequer Resources 2018-27 18 3.4 Total Resources: Exchequer and State-backed investment 19 3.5 Funding Linked to the Achievement of Strategic Outcomes under the NPF 19 3.6 Reform of the Capital Funding Model 19 3.7 Rural, Urban, Technology and Climate Action Funds 23 Chapter 4: A Connected Island 25 4.1 Brexit - Investing for Peace and Prosperity 25 4.2 A Strong All-Island Partnership 28 4.3 Investing in the Border Region 29 4.4 Advancing North-South Co-operation 29 Project Ireland 2040 | National Development Plan 2018-2027 Chapter 5: National Strategic Outcomes and Public Investment Priorities 31 5.1 National Planning Framework: National Strategic Outcomes 31 5.2 Alignment with the National Development Plan 32 National Strategic Outcome 1. Compact Growth 33 National Strategic Outcome 2. Enhanced Regional Accessibility 39 National Strategic Outcome 3. Strengthened Rural Economies and Communities 45 National Strategic Outcome 4. Sustainable Mobility 53 National Strategic Outcome 5. A Strong Economy, supported by Enterprise, Innovation and Skills 58 National Strategic Outcome 6. High-Quality International Connectivity 66 National Strategic Outcome 7. Enhanced Amenity and Heritage 69 National Strategic Outcome 8. Transition to a Low-Carbon and Climate-Resilient Society 74 National Strategic Outcome 9. Sustainable Management of Water and other Environmental Resources 83 National Strategic Outcome 10. Access to Quality Childcare, Education and Health Services 86 Other Public Investment Sectors 93 Chapter 6: Oversight and Implementation 99 6.1 Overview 99 6.2 Evidence-base for the National Development Plan 100 6.3 Role of Regional Investment Plans 100 6.4 Financial Oversight 100 6.5 Strengthened Governance Arrangements 101 6.6 Protecting the Quality and Value of Past Investment 101 6.7 Outcome of the Public Private Partnership Review 102 6.8 Investment by the Commercial State Sector 102 6.9 Construction Sector Working Group 103 6.10 Equality Budgeting 103 6.11 Headquarters of New State Bodies and Agencies 103 Annex 1 104 List of Acronyms 105 Project Ireland 2040 | National Development Plan 2018-2027 Foreword We are delighted to publish The National Development Plan 2018– 2027. This ambitious plan will drive Ireland’s long term economic, environmental and social progress across all parts of the country over the next decade. The plan is fully integrated with the new approach to spatial planning in Ireland in the National Planning Framework. Spatial planning guides, informs and influences the Our decisions as a society on how we make use of land choices we make which affect the fabric of our daily and geographic space are among the most important lives. It impacts on the distribution of people, on our decisions we will make. They impact on almost all jobs, businesses, houses, roads, public transport, aspects of our lives and those of the communities we education and health infrastructure, and on social, live in. The National Development Plan underpins cultural and sporting facilities. Such planning must be the overarching message of the National Planning supported by a significant commitment of investment Framework. We now have the opportunity to shape a resources, while also allowing for the flexibility to new model of the physical development of our country respond to future challenges. which can drive substantial progress in economic, social and environmental terms as an island in a By 2040 the population of Ireland is expected to grow European and in a global context. by over 1 million to 5.7 million people. The spatial planning approach set out in the National Planning The performance of the Irish economy and our ability Framework will support this growth. Its successful to realise its full growth potential in a sustainable way delivery will be critical to securing Ireland’s economic, are all inextricably linked and critically dependent on social and environmental sustainability over the next the quality of spatial planning. The National Planning two decades. Framework highlights the employment challenge in terms of enterprise, innovation and skills of creating This National Development Plan sets out the in excess of 660,000 additional jobs in the period up significant level of investment, almost €116 billion, until 2040. Our future success rests on ensuring our which will underpin the National Planning Framework readiness for a changing world and the continued and drive its implementation over the next ten successful development of the knowledge economy. years. €91 billion in Exchequer funding for public Responding to this and to the risks and opportunities capital investment has been allocated and will provided by Brexit highlights the importance of be supplemented with substantial investment by adopting a strongly strategic approach to public commercial State Owned Enterprises. This increased capital investment in the National Development Plan. level of resources is expected to move Ireland close to the top of the international league table for public This National Development Plan is clearly aligned with investment. the delivery of the objectives of the National Planning Framework. The investment plans detailed in this This funding has the potential to transform the publication are an unequivocal demonstration of the experience of all of our daily lives over the coming Government’s commitment to making the National years. Whether we realise this potential will depend Planning Framework a reality. on our commitment to deliver on the ten National Strategic Outcomes detailed in the National Planning Framework. This document outlines, under corresponding Strategic Investment Priorities, how the new configuration for public capital investment over the next ten years will secure the realisation of each of the National Strategic Outcomes. The integrated strategy presented in the National Planning Framework and the National Development Plan moves beyond the business-as-usual approach that has contributed to unrestricted urban sprawl and the failure of previous spatial plans. This failure was a major contributory factor to the serious problems Leo Varadkar TD, Paschal Donohoe TD in the housing market and the major congestion and Taoiseach Minister for Finance and lengthy commute times experienced in our cities as Public Expenditure and well as the slow progress in meeting climate change Reform objectives. 2 Project Ireland 2040 | National Development Plan 2018-2027 M17/M18 Gort to Tuam Motorway. Source: TII Chapter 1: Overview 1.1 Context The National Development Plan 2018–2027 is the most recent in the series of such capital plans adopted since 1988. This included three multi-annual National Development Plans which spanned the period to 2006. The substantial levels of public investment undertaken under these plans over that period played a central role driving the economic convergence of the Irish economy and in enabling the substantial social progress achieved. Following the onset of the economic and fiscal crisis, 2015 capital plan, and also by a number of national the public infrastructure that had been put in place and international assessments, this has led to over the past two decades played a very important the development of some important shortfalls in role supporting the resilience and recovery of the the volume and quality of Ireland’s public capital economy. However, in the years following the crisis infrastructure. public investment was significantly constrained to safeguard the provision of essential public services. As highlighted in the 2017 review of the 3 Project Ireland 2040 | National Development Plan 2018-2027 Dublin Port The National Development Plan represents a forceful Figure 1.1: Ireland’s Population, 1996-2041 response to these deficits and identifies the strategic priorities for public capital investment for all sectors. 6.0 It is also anchored in learning some important lessons from previous experience in relation to public 5.0 investment, including: 4.0 • the need to identify priority areas for public 3.0 investment with a strategic importance in terms of the economy’s long-term growth, development 2.0 and sustainability needs; Poplation illion Poplation 1.0 • the requirement for a sharp focus on the 1996 2002 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 achievement of value-for-money from public 0.0 investment; and Source: 1996-2016 Central Statistics Office Census, 2021- • the importance of ensuring the affordability 2041 NPF Projections and sustainability of capital spending plans to The National Development Plan demonstrates the minimise the risk of overheating. Government’s commitment to meeting Ireland’s A fundamental underlying objective of the National infrastructure and investment needs over the next Development Plan is, therefore, to focus on continued ten years, through a total investment estimated at investment to yield a public infrastructure that €116 billion over the period. This represents a very facilitates priorities such as high-speed broadband substantial commitment of resources and is expected and public transport in better cities and in better to move Ireland close to the top of the international communities.