Untitled Essay, 1946 Intelligence Overload These Days
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CONTENTS OVERVIEW ................................................................. vi INTRODUCTION: The Name of the Game: Let’s Define Our Terms ........... vii CHAPTER 1 HOW TO DECEIVE: Principles & Process 1.1 Deception as Applied Psychology....................................... 1 1.2 The Basic Principle: Naturalness........................................ 6 1.3 The Structure of Deception ............................................ 7 1.4 The Process of Deception............................................ 13 CHAPTER 2 INTERFACE: Deceiver versus Detective 2.1 Weaving the Web .................................................. 16 2.2 Unraveling the Web................................................. 17 CHAPTER 3 HOW TO DETECT: 10 General Principles 3.1 Cognitive Biases that Inhibit Detection .................................. 20 3.2 Overcoming Information Overload...................................... 20 3.3 The Analysts: Minimalists versus Compleatists ........................... 22 3.4 The Analyst’s Advantage............................................. 23 3.5 Categories ........................................................ 24 3.6 Know Your Enemy: Empathy & Inference................................ 32 3.7 Channels ......................................................... 34 3.8 Senses & Sensors.................................................. 35 3.9 Cultural Factors.................................................... 39 3.10 Asymmetries: Technological & Cognitive ................................ 40 CHAPTER 4 HOW TO DETECT: 20 Specific Methods 4.1 Finding Patterns of Congruity & Incongruity .............................. 43 4.2 The Plus or Minus Rule.............................................. 47 4.3 The Congruity/Incongruity Rule and the Analyst’s Advantage ................. 49 4.4 Jones’ Law of Multiple Sensors ........................................ 51 4.5 Whaley’s Law of Cognitive Triangulation ................................. 54 4.6 Resolving the Rashomon and the He Said/She Said Dilemmas ............... 56 4.7 What We Must Seek & Detect: Reversing the 5 Ws and 9 Categories ......... 57 4.8 Locard’s Exchange Principle .......................................... 58 4.9 Connecting Dots or Crossword Puzzling? ................................ 59 4.10 Mirror Imaging or M.O.? .............................................. 63 4.11The HUMINT Factor: Networking Small Worlds........................... 65 4.12 Gatekeepers and the Degrading of Information ............................ 70 4.13 Grading Source Reliability and Information Accuracy ....................... 72 4.14Setting Priorities.................................................... 73 4.15 Shannon’s Information Theory: Signals & Redundancy plus Noise ............ 75 Contents iii 4.16 Occam’s Razor versus Crabtree’s Bludgeon .............................. 76 4.17Data Banks........................................................ 78 4.18Indirect Thinking & the Third Option..................................... 80 4.19 The Intuitive Trigger: Busby’s Ombudsman ............................... 84 4.20Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)................................ 90 CHAPTER 5 VERIFICATION & FALSIFICATION 5.1 Passive & Active Analyses ............................................ 91 5.2 Tripwires & Telltales ................................................. 92 5.3 Traps............................................................. 93 5.4 Lures............................................................. 95 5.5 Provocations....................................................... 97 CHAPTER 6 BEYOND DETECTION & VERIFICATION 6.1 Before Detection: Anticipation & Other Proactive Measures .................. 98 6.2 After Detection: Triple Cross........................................... 99 CONCLUSIONS ........................................................... 101 Contents iv CONTENTS OF THE APPENDICES ......................................... 103 APPENDIX 1 TRIGGERS FOR DISCUSSION: 20 Sets of Maxims .......................... 104 APPENDIX 2 TOOLKIT: 10 Checklists & Rules of Thumb A2.1 A Typology of Perception (Whaley).................................... 114 A2.2 Bell-Whaley Deception Matrix (Summary)............................... 115 A2.3 The Nine Categories of Perception & Misperception (Whaley) ............... 116 A2.4 The Five W’s (Kipling & Lasswell)..................................... 116 A2.5 Three Lists of Cognitive Biases that Inhibit Detection Jervis......................................................... 117 Heuer ........................................................ 119 Bias Checklist.................................................. 121 A2.6 How to Induce Target Self-Deception (Whaley) .......................... 123 A2.7 List of Psychological Responses to Incongruities (Brewer & Chinn) ........... 124 A2.8 Deception Analysis Triggers (Tiernan & FDDC) .......................... 124 A2.9 Deception Analysis Cognitive Framework (Tiernan & FDDC) ................ 125 A2.10 Checklist for Lies and Liars (Ekman) ................................... 126 APPENDIX 3 BASIC READINGS IN COUNTERDECEPTION A3.1 R. V. Jones, “The Theory of Practical Joking” ........................... 127 A3.2 R. V. Jones, “The Principles of Security” and the “The Principles of Deception” . 143 A3.3 R. V. Jones, “Unmasking Deception” .................................. 144 A3.4 R. J. Heuer, “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) ................... 147 APPENDIX 4 TIMELINE: 137 Landmark Concepts & Methods in Deception & Detection ..... 163 APPENDIX 5 RECOMMENDED READINGS (50) .......................................... 176 Contents v OVERVIEW This Textbook of political and military counterdeception is unique. It’s unlike any of your many familiar intelligence textbooks or field manuals. Those were designed to teach the intelligence analyst to perform certain set procedures — rather like a highly skilled accountant or manager — counting weapons and personnel, tracking their movements, and predicting their behavior. In sharp contrast, this Textbook has been designed to help the analyst faced with deception to also begin to think more like a detective solving a mystery. Specifically, it will help you think your way into the mind of a deceptive opponent. This Textbook gives a convenient overview of counterdeception, which is defined here as the detection of deception — and, by extension, the possible triple-cross of the deceiver. It is practical, having been designed as: ! a teaching tool for persons concerned with counterdeception, either as practitioners or potential victims; and ! an analytical instrument for counterdeception operations, specifically as a check-list to assure that all likely possibilities have been considered (“all bases covered”) in the detection or analysis of deception operations. The essence of this Textbook is its interdisciplinary foundation. It draws its evidence and conclusions from research on over a hundred different disciplines, all of which seek to detect the ruses of hostile deceivers. These “detectives” ranged from military and political intelligence intelligence analysts, through police detectives, forensic scientists, and business fraud examiners, to confidence artists and magicians who deal with deception as a professional necessity. Each of these disciplines has evolved through years of experience, of trial and error, various theories about and procedures for detecting deception. A few of these principles and methods (particularly those of forensic & physical scientists, cognitive psychologists, and magicians) are rather highly developed and consistently effective. Those of intelligence analysts are only modestly and often inconsistently effective. And those of most others are seldom little better than chance guesses. This text filters out most of the chaff to present only the more useful principles, solid evidence, and tested conclusions. Unlike most handbooks, primers, or introductory textbooks, this volume avoids the haughty airs of the traditional anonymous “Mr. Know-All” or some faceless committee. This Textbook will give the evidence and draw conclusions as this author sees them. All have been thoroughly field-tested in one or more disciplines and proven generally successful. They’ve been ruthlessly condensed from a ponderous manuscript representing nearly two decades of research on detection in general and specifically on detecting deception. That manuscript is stuffed with documented evidence, detailed analyses, lengthy arguments and counter-arguments, and raw opinions. Its weaknesses as well as its considerable strengths are there for anyone with enough time and background to weigh and judge. But the audience for this Textbook are the students in one or more intense and time-compressed introductory courses on the detection of deception. Thus, drastic cuts were necessary. However, to give the instructors of these courses maximum flexibility, somewhat more information than was strictly necessary has been appended to the main text. Examples: The Triggers for Discussion gives 20 sets of quotations that challenge the student. The Toolkit of basic checklists and rules of thumb includes a few supplementary as well as some alternative tools for the instructors to choose among. The Basic Readings section give 4 short texts, each focused on a specific topic that instructors may chose to use as the basis for classroom discussion or as a shopping list for term papers. And the Recommended Readings of 50 key books and articles has been lightly annotated to