Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.8, 2011 India: Inter-City Passenger Transport – Trends And Issues Raghu DAYAL Senior Fellow Asian Institute of Transport Development 13, Palam Marg, Vasant Vihar, New Delhi-110057, India Tel.: 91-11-26155309 Fax: 91-11-26156294 E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] Abstract: Primary focus of the paper remains land transport modes with a peripheral, though essential, reference to aviation. It profiles growth and development of passenger travel market in India. Along with a historical and evolutionary account of modal share underscoring the ecosystem in which the market has functioned, an imperative need for an optimal modal mix is suggested in the interest of the economy as well as environment. Pricing and cost matrix is an important element, so also the demand and supply analysis, particularly of rail services, for investment planning. Some essential features are catalogued by way of lessons learnt for an optimal modal share, which, in turn, implies judicious investments for capacity build-up and development. Keywords: Intercity transport, suburban, optimal modal split 1. INTRODUCTION Serving a land area of 3.3 million square km and a population of over one billion, India's transport system is one of the world’s largest. It consists mainly of roads, railways, and air services. In a few states, inland water transport plays a small supplementary role. And along its long 7,500 km coastline, India has 200 seaports. Since 1950-51, marking the commencement of economic planning era in the country, there has been a significant change in the modal split of passenger traffic. Passenger traffic in India has continuously increased since 1950-51, as much as 63-fold; rail traffic about 11-fold; and road traffic 212 times. Air traffic has also increased, 168-fold. The decade 1990-91 to 2000-01 registered a particularly high growth shared by all modes of transport, albeit larger growth was recorded by the road sector. Increasing population, growing urbanization, developing industry and economy, the very size and dimension of the country, and varied needs of the people are the contributing factors for a steady increase in country’s passenger traffic. 2. MODAL CHARACTERISTICS IN PASSENGER SERVICES While about 10 million of passengers travel by air in a month, Indian Railways (IR) carries almost twice as many in a day. Even so, IR accounts for less than 15% of country’s total passenger traffic output; roads having an overwhelming share, more than 85%. Although IR has steadily increased its throughput, its modal share has dramatically declined, from a share of over 85% of country’s freight and 74% of its passenger traffic to about 35% and 12% Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.8, 2011 respectively; roads have wrested the resultant traffic share, and now command a share of almost 65% in freight and 87% of passenger traffic. Air transport is increasing at rates higher than rail or road; even so, its proportion in total traffic remains less than 1%. Air transport has, of late, grown fast due to the emergence of low cost carriers, resulting in large expansion of air services on domestic routes. Table 1 Share of passenger traffic by rail, road and air Year Passenger km (billion) Percentage share Rail Road Air Total Rail Road Air Total 1950-51 66 23 0.2 89.2 73.99 25.79 0.22 100.00 1960-61 78 81 0.6 159.6 48.87 50.75 0.38 100.00 1970-71 118 210 1.6 329.6 35.80 63.71 0.49 100.00 1980-81 209 542 4.5 7,55.5 27.66 71.74 0.60 100.00 1990-91 296 768 7.0 1,071.0 27.64 71.71 0.65 100.00 2000-01 457 2,076 12.3 2,545.3 17.96 81.56 0.48 100.00 2005-06 616 4110 23.7 4,749.7 12.97 86.53 0.50 100.00 2006-07 696 4,883 33.5 5,612.5 12.40 87.00 0.60 100.0 Table 2 Compound annual growth rates of passenger traffic by rail, road and air transport:% Period Rail Road Air Total 1950-51 to 1960-61 1.68 13.42 11.61 5.99 1960-61 to 1970-71 4.23 10.00 10.31 7.62 1970-71 to 1980-81 5.88 9.95 10.89 8.65 1980-81 to 1990-91 3.54 3.55 4.52 3.55 1990-91 to 2000-01 4.44 10.46 5.80 9.04 2000-01 to 2005-06 6.15 12.54 14.02 11.50 2005-06 to 2006-07 12.99 18.81 41.35 17.00 Sources: Rail – Year Book, Indian Railways; Road – Transport Research Wing, Ministry of Shipping, Road Transport & Highways, and Plan XI Working Group on Road Transport; Air - Annual Air Transport Statistics, Directorate General Civil Aviation. 2.1 Factors impacting modal fares All modes of transport are striving for greater efficiency. The impact differs according to class of travel, distance of travel, fare structure, etc. In addition to rapid technological developments, there are a few uncertainties which may eventually affect the modal split. Structural change in the pricing of services provided by different modes of transport is an important factor. Presently, upper class rail passengers subsidize lower class rail travel. On the other hand, air transport fares in India are reported to be not covering full cost, and incurring losses, which may lead to an increase in air fares. Change in the price of fuel is another important factor; its impact on all modes of transport is not similar. An increase in price of fuel has more adverse impact on the cost of aircraft operation and its competitiveness inasmuch as cost of fuel accounts for a high proportion of total cost of its operation. Road transport is also adversely affected but not to the same extent as air transport. The impact of increases in fuel prices is the least on railways, as it is energy efficient and also uses electricity on most of the trunk routes. Presently, considerable emphasis is being placed on controlling greenhouse emissions. The aviation industry is likely to be soon covered by emission trading regime and air transport is Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.8, 2011 likely to be adversely affected by these moves. Railways may gain as it is more environment- friendly. On all accounts, it is railways which needs to really develop its capacity and services for an optimal share in country’s passenger market. 3. PASSENGER SERVICES – MAIN CATEGORIES India’s large population and continental distances make for a huge market for inter-city passenger travel. Passenger services may be divided into four categories based on the distance of travel: (i) intra-city services; (ii) suburban and short haul inter-city services up to a distance of, say, 150 km; (iii) medium haul services - between 150 and 750 km; and (iv) long haul services, in excess of 750 km. 3.1 Intra-city services Intra-city passenger transport is primarily the domain of road transport, with buses, taxies, auto rickshaws, private vehicles, including cars and two wheelers playing an important role. Non-motorised means of transport such as bicycles, cycle rickshaws and also animal driven vehicles have also a role to play, especially in smaller towns. Rail-based rapid transit or metro services in urban agglomerations are as a rule developed for dense corridors, generally developed and managed by respective cities or specialized agencies. 3.2 Suburban and short-haul inter-city services The short-haul inter-city services segment is, again, dominated by road transport. Road transport has the flexibility to adjust to different desired schedules and frequencies of service. While the ordinary Second Class rail fares are generally lower than public road transport services, the convenience factor afforded by road transport services makes up for it. Rail corridors in and around large cities are as a rule heavily congested. Although suburban traffic on IR continues to grow, there is a marginal decline in its proportion to total traffic, notwithstanding the enlargement of the concept of suburban traffic. About 50% of the increase in this category is accounted for by inclusion of the new category of suburban passengers, i.e., passengers travelling up to 150 km on season tickets. 3.3 Medium-haul services In the medium haul segment, say, for journeys between 150 km and 750 km, there is maximum competition among different modes, including railways, road transport and, to an extent, air transport. IR took a commendable initiative when, for this segment of passenger travel, it introduced a slew of Shatabdi Express trains, most of them covering distances up to about 500 km between major cities, which provide fast and convenient day-long return travel facility. Many foreign as well as Indian tourists and others prefer to travel, for example, to Agra from New Delhi by Shatabdi Express rather than by road or air and return in the evening by the same train. Whereas during 1995-96 Agra airport handled 62,600 domestic passengers, in 2006-07 it was left with no regular air service to handle. The medium-haul inter-city passenger travel segment is eminently served by IR operating a number of services, for example, the Vagai between Chennai and Madurai (492 km), the Godavari between Hyderabad and Vishakhapatnam (710 km), the Gujarat Mail between Mumbai and Ahmedabad (492 km), the Puri Express between the Kolkata and Puri (500 km), the Lucknow Mail between New Delhi and Lucknow (507 km), the Venkatadri between Hyderabad and Bangalore (763 km), the Mayur Express between Guwahati and Silchar (395 Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.8, 2011 km), the Deccan Queen between Mumbai and Pune (191 km), the Taj Express between New Delhi and Agra (200 km), the Flying Rani between Mumbai and Surat (263 km).