Status of LFP industry and market in China & its readiness to support the transport electrification
Xiaoyu ZHANG, SynPLi Consulting
Email: [email protected] Agenda
Up-stream: LFP in China
Mid-stream: LIB in China
• LIB market: LIB for xEV application • Key LIB players assessment
Down-stream: transport electrification
• xEV market • Policy and strategy trend of main OEMs
Conclusions and outlook Up-stream: LFP in China
54,000 ton in 2013
Pylon Hangsheng
LFP in 2013: 3500 ton Up-stream: LFP in China
China 17%
More optimistic
Less optimistic Cathode active materials in 2025: > 330 000 Tons ASSUMPTIONS :
Portable devices: 2010-2025: +11% per year in volume World HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB
P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB
EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB Courtesy of Avicenne Energy LIB business revenues (10 8 RMB) 90 Mid-stream: LIB in China 80 70 Lishen 60 World: LIB demand @13CY ( 51,500 MWh) 50 ATL 40 BAK Others 30 BYD Nalon 20 Coslight Wisewod 10 Mcnair 0 Great power 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TCL Optimum China LIB supply @13CY ( 17,650 MWh) Veken Lishen Gxgk Po B&K ATL Oceansun Pr BYD UTL BAK HYB Cy AEE Coslight Tianmao 0,00 200,00 400,00 600,00 800,00 1000,00 First First Coslight BAK China LIB export BYD 4,0% @13CY: 7% ATL Japan Lishen Korea LEJ 25,9% 27,2% AESC Cy Pr Po&La China Hitachi Others Sony 42,9% Panasonic LG Chem SDI Courtesy of RealLi Research China LIB demand @13CY: 14000MWh Mid-stream: LIB in China
China LIB production @13CY (unit: 10 6 cell) 2010-2013 China LIB production (unit: 10 6 cell)
2013
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2012
Jan_Fev Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011
2010 China LIB production @13CY 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 4% Guangdong 3% 7% Chinese key power LIB players annual production capacity Guangxi Tianjin by 2012 (unit: million Ah) 7% 36% Jiangsu 400 7% 300 Jiangxi 200 Fujian 16% 100 Shanghai 0 12% 10% Hubei Others Mid-stream: LIB in China
Battery size, Company Market battery chemistry route Lishen Big, LFP Power tool, E-bike,xEV/ESS ATL Big, LFP xEV, ESS Big+Small, BAK xEV,E-bike LFP+NMC BYD Big, LFP xEV, ESS Gxgk Big, LFP xEV Optimum Big,LFP xEV CALB Big, LFP xEV,ESS Unipower Big, LFP xEV MGL Big, LMO xEV Wanxiang Big, LMO+LFP xEV, ESS AEEnergy Big, LFP+NMC E-bike Phylion Big, LMO/LFP E-bike, LEV Mid-stream: LIB in China
Energy density of LFP cell in China by 2012 (Wh/Kg)
CALB SE180
Phylion 40Ah
BYD C12
Lishen LP50
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
item Lishen BYD (E6) Wanxiang MGL AESC (GEN1) LG Chem (Volt)
Chemistry LFP LFP LFP LMO+LiNiO 2 LMO+LiNiAlO 2 LMO+NMC 31.5kWh 57kwh 138.7kWh 142.2kWh 24kWh 16kWh Battery 94.5Ah/333V 180Ah/316.8V 255Ah/544V 360Ah/395V 66Ah/360V 45Ah/355V Battery weight 446kg 800Kg 1,850kg 1,664kg 280kg 181.4Kg Cell unit 13.5Ah/3.2V 180Ah/3.3V 15Ah/3.2V 90Ah/3.95V 33.1Ah/3.8V 15Ah/3.7V Pack Energy density 71Wh/kg 71.3Wh/kg 75Wh/kg 85.5Wh/kg 85.7Wh/kg 88.1Wh/kg Module Miles Plugpower N/A Enerl N/A GM, Mitsubishi Partner LiFetech Eaton Guarantee 8 years 5 years 3 years 3 years 8 years 8 years Mid-stream: LIB in China
Roadmap on xEV battery development, released by China government in 2012
2012 2015 2020
4000 RMB/kWh 2000 RMB/kWh 1500 RMB/kWh Module:<100 Wh/kg Cycle: 2000 Cycle: 3000 Module: ≥ 150 Wh/kg Module: ≥ 300 Wh/kg
By 2015: Max speed of EV/PHEV passenger cars: ≥100Km/h . EV Range: ≥ 150 km. PHEV range (EV mode): ≥ 50km 2-3 top battery manufactures with production capacity: ≥10 Billion Wh/year
Total funding of 863 program(12 th FYP) on xEV/battery : 3 billion RMB
150 million RMB/each 2013-2015 What is China’s situation in the world by 2015 and 2020?
By 2020
Courtesy of Fraunhofer ISI, ABEC 2013
If China can realize its planning and objective of battery cost and energy density, it will lead the world xEV market in the future. Down-stream: xEV in China Beijing, Jan. 2013 Beijing, Jan. 2014
Why we need to develop xEV in
China? Shanghai, Jan. 2013 Shanghai, Jan. 2014
Beijing: major sources for PM2.5 in heavy polution period (2013.1-2014.2 )
5% 12% ICE 42% Coal -fired 13% Industry Dust Others 28% Down-stream: xEV in China -National demonstration program-25 cities (2009-2012)
Nantong Xiangyang Objective Objective: 51,707 units Huhehaote Reality: 27,415 units HEV bus Chengdu 1218 HEV car Changchun Reality Tangshan 10495 FCV Jinan 9834 Xiamen EV bus xEV in 25 demo city 2009-2012.8 Suzhou Ev car Tianjin 2513 3305 Kunming EV utility Nanchang 16% 50 Shenyang ICE bus vs. HEV bus (RMB) Guangzhou Chongqing Public 800000 Wuhan Private Haikou 84% Dalian 600000 Zhengzhou Shanghai Changzhutan 400000 Incentive Hangzhou Beijing Margin Shenzhen 200000 Hefei
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 0 Down-stream: xEV in China
EV+PHEV: 500,000 units EV+PHEV: 5,000,000 units
2015 Pilote 2020 Large scale impossible China: EV+PHEV cars sales China LEV 13CY China Shandong: 85,600 LEV @12CY 17% >500,000 units 2014Q1 Passenger car 10% 2013 PHEV Small truck 2012 83% EV EV -QQ Beach wargon 2011 84% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Others China EV+PHEV cars sales @13CY China ICE vs. EV+PHEV sales BAIC Senova EV 0.08% BYD Qin (PHEV) 2013 Dongfeng Venucia e30 Zotye M300 EV 0.07% SAIC Roewe E50 2012 EV+PHEV BAIC E150 EV ICE JAC iEV 0.04% BYD F3DM PHEV 2011 BYD E6 EV
0 500 1000 1500 2000 1 100 10000 1000000 100000000 E-Bus in China
Bus sales in China China: 4 main bus OEM sales @13CY
2013 3.5m Yutong Ankai Jinlong Zhongtong Total bus Zhongtong Jinlong e-Bus Ankai Yutong Others 1 100 10000 OEM ：：：Yutong,etc. Type: EV bus OEM ：：：Jinlong etc. Cell ：：： LP2770134-20Ah Type: HEV System ：：： 16P168S Cell ：：：LP2770112-7.5Ah Voltage ：：：537.6V System ：：：108S 4P Energy ：：：172 kWh Voltage ：：：345.6V Mileage: 290 miles Energy ：：：10.4 kWh Vmax : 70Km/h Courtesy of Lishen, ABEC 2013 Global EV and PHEV in 2013 EU: EV+PHEV car sales @13CY (72,700units) Japan: EV+PHEV car sales @13CY (32,000 units) Netherland 6,0% Others 11% Norway Nissan Nissan NMC 10,8% 42,4% France 41% Mitsubishi Mitsubishi Minicab MiEV Truck Germany 41% Toyota Mitsubishi Minicab MiEV 14,1% United Kingdom Others 16,4% Mitsubishi i PHEV EV Toyota Prius PHEV Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Nissan Leaf World EV+PHEV sales @13CY (222,000 units) US: EV+PHEV car sales @13CY (96,300 units) JAC iEV Cadillac ELR BYD E6 GM Jan Porche Panamera S E-Hybrid Nissan Accord PHEV Tesla Fev Mitsubishi Minicab MiEV 7,9% Spark EV Ford USA Toyota Mar Fit EV Ford Focus Electric EU Honda Apr Mitsubishi Fiat 500e EV Opel Ampera PHEV Japan Mai Smart ED Daimler Fiat China RAV4 EV VW Jun Mitsubishi i Others i-MiEV Jul Ford Fusion Energi Focus EV Aug Fusion PHEV Volvo V60 PHEV Sep C-Max PHEV Prius PHEV Oct Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Modle S Nov Toyota Prius PHEV Leaf EV Dec Volt PHEV Nissan Leaf xEV Charging in China Charging station planning in China made by 400 Charging station and 19,000 charging point by 2013 State Grid @10CY 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 11CY-15CY 16CY-20CY Planning fixed in 2014: 1,549 Charging station and 238,559 charging point by 2015 Charging situation in big cities by 2013 State grid strategy Hangzhou Chongqing From 2014: Fast charging in Tianjin priority, followed by slow Point Shenzhen Station charging and battery swapping Shanghai Beijing 1 10 100 1000 10000 Down-stream: Policy trend on xEV in China Passenger cars EV driving range R (Km) Subsidy (10 3 RMB) 80≤ R＜＜＜150 150≤ R＜＜＜250 R≥250 R≥50 EV 35 50 60 ／／／ PHEV ／／／ ／／ ／／／ 35 Bus Bus length L (m) 3 Subsidy (10 RMB) 6≤ L＜＜＜8 8≤ L＜＜＜10 L≥10 Policy released on Sept. 17 th , 2013 EV 300 400 500 PHEV ／／／ 250 In addition: Subsidy for super capacitor and LTO battery fast charging EV bus: 150K RMB/unit NEV >30% for additional public transportation Foreign brand >30% in order to decrease local protectionism Ciaps’s take: 1. Some LEV can touch this subsidy (35K RMB/unit) if driving range >80Km 2. EV in priority in China, however, HEV not in subsidy range again (<30K RMB for HEV is to be realized in the near future, message in Mai 2014) 3. Local JV is needed to get these subsidies. Trend on electrified transportation in China Courtesy of SAIC, CHANA, FAW, IOP and D1EV Conclusions >90% LFP market is in China. Chinese LFP suppliers need to continue to improve material quality and higher performance/price ratio to face the future challenge not only in domestic market, but for exportation as well if applicable in the future . Collaboration between China & HQ will be meaningful with a bright perspective LFP battery remains the prior choice for ESS, e-bus, e-taxi in China, owing to its good safety and long cycle life. PHEV could be a good transition phase for private market before the improved charging infrastructure is fully available Standerization of EV batteries and battery charging system is necessary to be established soon, otherwise there will be invisible local protection Appropriate business model should be applied in different cities/regions to better promote the xEV development, especially for the private market Infrastructure and xEV should be developped together, for the moment, infrastructure of charging points/station for private market are in priority! Government should establish a fair, open and transparent game rules of all parties involved, without any preference. e.g. local catalogue of xEV should be re-discussed. Sometimes, Bonus is better than subsidies… HEV and LEV should be also given more attention by government Government’s intention should be well read by LIB/OEMs players, not just for funding/subsidy application China also needs to improve its energy structure (80% electricity comes from coal- combustion), if it cannot use more renewable energy to charge the xEV, even the EV is ZERO EMISSION, there will be pollution in other ways, since the electricity is not GREEN… Outlook China LFP battery is ready to support the transport electrification in China xEV reality route in China ① Two wheel→Three wheel→Four-wheel ② Low speed→High speed Increase of energy density cannot be sacrificed by safety that is in priority forever World In xEV, although fuel cell may be the ultimate choice, Lithium battery will definitely dominate this market in the following 10 years, so no matter LMP, LFP, LMO, NMC, OLO, OLS or Li-S, Li-Air, etc., at least, we will use LI . Global EV+PHEV sales could be doubled next year… Opportunities accompanied by chanllenges in China !