Electric Power Research Institute, Inc

Plug-In Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure Florida State Projections 2010 – 2030

Mark Duvall Director, Electric Transportation and Energy Storage Florida PSC Workshop on EV Charging Stations September 6, 2012 Nationwide Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales (As of June 30, 2012)

To Do- Add Tesla Roadster into Other

Sources: Automotive News, hybridcars.com © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2 The Introduction of PEVs is Outpacing the Intro of HEVs (More models, greater sales numbers)

Source: US Department of Energy © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 3 BMW ActiveE trial BMW i3 Launch 2013 Audi A1 E-Tron Chevrolet Volt since begins 2012 Launch 2014 2010 BYD e6 Launch 2013 CODA Sedan Launch BMW i8 Launch 2014 Nissan LEAF since BYD F3DM Launch Early 2012 Cadillac ELR Launch 2010 2013 Ford Focus Electric Ford C-MAX Energi Chevrolet Spark 2014 Tesla Roadster since Launch Early 2012 Launch Late 2012 Launch 2013 Hyundai BlueOn 2008 Launch 2014 Fisker Karma Honda Fit EV Launch Ford Fusion Energi Launch 2011 Late 2012 Launch 2013 Kia Ray Launch 2014 2012 2013 2014

Mitsubishi I Launch Tesla Model X Launch Mitsubishi Px-MiEV Early 2012 Scion iQ Launch 2013 Launch 2014 Late 2012 smart fortwo electric Toyota FT-EV Launch Volkswagen E-Bugster drive Launch 2012 2013 Launch 2014 Tesla Model S Toyota RAV4 EV Volkswagen E-Golf Launches Mid-2012 Launch 2013 Launch 2014 Toyota Plug In Prius Volvo C30 Electric Volvo V70 PHEV Source: Launches Early 2012 Launch 2013 Launch 2014 EEI

5 New PEVs per year (thousand vehicles) (thousand per year PEVs New

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Low Medium High

5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Electricity consumption (TWh/year) consumption Electricity 0.5 0.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Low Medium High

6.6 kW charge power, PHEV40, weekdays

100 10 kVA 15 kVA 25 kVA • Local distribution transformers are 37.5 kVA among the first equipment 10 50 kVA 75 kVA impacted 100 kVA • Charge power is the likely 240V 30A dominant factor determining 1 impact, not time-of-day 240V 15A

0.1 • Charge power is increasing— Remaining Capacity (kVA/Customer) automotive OEMs trend to about a four-hour charge time

0.01 – 19.2 kW is the maximum for 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 residential AC charging Potential PEV Customers Average Peak Summer Demand Per Household (KW) • TOU rates and other off-peak Tesla (240V80A) 19.2 charging programs mitigate PEV (240V@32A) 7.7 upstream impacts but offer limited PEV (240V@15A) 3.6 PEV (120V@12A) 1.4

help to local transformers SanFrancisco, CA 3.0 Feeders – Especially true with clustering Hartford, CT 4.3 Dulles, VA 4.6

South Bend, IN 6.0

2 A.M. (6.6 KW/EV)

8 P.M. (3.3 KW/EV)

12 A.M. (3.3 KW/EV) 8 P.M. (2.0 KW/EV) 2 A.M. (3.3 KW/EV) 12 A.M. (2.0 KW/EV) 2 A.M. (2.0 KW/EV) SMART CHARGING PEV Fleet Projections Can Be Used to Estimate the Number of EV Charging Stations Needed in Florida

• Combines vehicle charging with solar power and battery storage along with smart grid interface • EPRI analysis showed capability to provide for entire station with normal commute patterns

EPRI’s Advanced Solar Charging Station combines PV (2kW per space) with energy storage and could effectively ‘stand alone’ at infrastructure

Location show is in Knoxville, additional locations in Chattanooga, Nashville, Memphis. Coming to NY.

120V – Level 1 Portable cordset Use any 120V outlet Up to 1.44 kW

DC Fast Charging Up to ~ 50 – 60 kW Fast, expensive 240V – Level 2 Standard not yet in place Permanent charge station (EVSE) Typ. 3.3 – 6.6 kW, but up to 19.2 kW © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 17 Planning and Implementing Infrastructure

• Infrastructure can be expensive ~ $1500 home, $2500+ public Public • Focus on Residential – 95% of vehicles end day at home – Lower residential cost, improve convenience Workplace •Workplace –2nd priority in terms of use • Public Charging Residential – Critical vs. convenience – where there are roads, their will be PEVs – Public charging does only two things – Enable BEVs to operate safely and confidently – Increase electricity use in PHEVs

 “Shared charger” is the Vehicle parks fraction of time spent whenever a charger is charging relative to the time available, and remains in spent parked. parking spot.  Dashed line is load shape, or actual charger use.

Vehicle only charges if total electric miles throughout the day are increased from charging everywhere, versus just This is the number at home. of chargers actually in use divided by the  Dashed line is load total vehicle fleet. shape, or actual charge in use.

When BEV100s are only allowed to charge when needed, they charge nearly the entire time. Again, very little benefit is seen for shared-charger model.

100% of population within 5 miles of charge station

• Likely to significantly increase

customer acceptance of BEVs Charge Profiles Pac (Leaf) Pac (iMieV) 60,000 – Expect DC charging in PHEVs Constant Current (CC) Constant Voltage (CV) 50,000 also Starting Battery Empty

40,000 s) t • Equipment falling in price, a (W r 30,000 e installation and service costs will w o P be dominant expenses 20,000

10,000 Constant Constant Voltage (CV) – Demand charges Current (CC)

0 • Uncertain how to financially 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Time (min) sustain a significant network • Careful planning can minimize the number of charge spots