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A-Share Research Highlights (CMS Research Center) HSI 22,915.28 -38.44 -0.17 1 本报告仅限被授权人内参 RICH资讯-发布最快的最新股票研究报告 请勿外传扩散，发现立停且不退费且追责，请知悉 www.181818.info Hong Kong Morning Daily Sep 16, 2013 (Monday) 晨会报告 HK Indices Last price chg % chg A-share Research Highlights (CMS Research Center) HSI 22,915.28 -38.44 -0.17 1. Automobile industry – comment on new air pollution control policy Finance 31,872.59 -27.79 -0.09 Properties 29,752.90 -234.2 -0.78 [Fang Xiaojian, Sept. 13, 2013] The State Council officially issued the Air Utilities 50,280.41 224.0 0.45 Pollution Prevention and Treatment Initiative, which includes six measures 13,407.88 -24.51 -0.18 to tackle automobile-related air pollution such as strengthening traffic Commerce&Industry HSCEI 10,538.94 -98.59 -0.93 management, upgrading fuel quality and accelerating the elimination of HSCCI 4,418.32 -0.02 0.00 “yellow label” vehicles (those that fail to meet the rudimentary emission HKSPGEM 428.67 3.00 0.70 standard). We believe the Initiative will have a huge impact on the automotive industry. Commercial vehicles will benefit from higher emission World Indices Last price chg % chg standards and the priority on public transport. New energy vehicles will be FTSE 100 6,583.80 -5.18 -0.08 further promoted. Automobile dismantling and inspection will also benefit. DAX 30 8,509.42 15.42 0.18 But the control on ownership volume and increased costs for usage would CAC 40 4,114.50 7.87 0.19 hurt consumption. Companies that benefit from the policy include: Weifu DJIA 15,376.06 75.42 0.49 High-Technology Group (000581), BYD (002594), Anhui Jianghuai S&P500 1,687.99 4.57 0.27 Nasdaq Automobile (600418), Zhengzhou Yutong Bus (600066), Anhui Ankai Composite 3,722.18 6.22 0.17 Automobile (000868), Miracle Automation Engineering (002009), China Nikkei 225 14,404.67 17.40 0.12 Automotive Engineering Research Institute (601965), etc. Asia-Pacific Last price chg % chg We believe these pollution prevention measures have great influence on Indices the auto industry: KOSPI 1,994.32 -9.74 -0.49 TWSE 1) Strengthening traffic management in cities and speeding up the 8,142.48 -25.72 -0.31 STI elimination of “yellow label” vehicles are good news for the bus and coach 3,120.30 -0.78 -0.02 India BSE 30 industry. According to data announced by the Ministry of Environmental 19,732.76 -49.12 -0.25 S&P/ASX 200 -22.91 -0.44 Protection previously, 350,000 large and midsize buses will become 5,219.63 obsolete by the end of 2015. Zhengzhou Yutong Bus, an industry leader, will benefit most. HSI One Year 2) Upgrading fuel quality and raising the emission standards will benefit 25000 Weifu High-Technology Group, a leader of tail gas treatment. 20000 3) Elimination of 5 million “yellow label” vehicles in the next two years will 15000 facilitate the development of the vehicle dismantlers. Miracle Automation Engineering will benefit from the policy. 10000 5000 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 2. Introduction of CMS foreign currency supply/demand indicator HSCEI One Year [Yan Ling, Sept. 12, 2013] Key points of view: 15000 A) Cross-border capital flows have increasing impact on China’s money 12000 supply and RMB exchange rate, with the progress in capital account convertibility and exchange rate regime reforms, as well as on monetary 9000 policy and asset prices. Increment in funds outstanding for foreign 6000 exchange is a key indicator in this respect. Therefore, we have introduced the analytical framework of funds outstanding for foreign exchange from a 3000 global perspective and CMS foreign currency supply/demand index, a Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 high-frequency coincident indicator. Source:Bloomberg B) CMS foreign currency supply/demand indicator can be used to predict China Merchants Securities (HK) high-frequency data of funds outstanding for foreign exchange. Under the Research managed floating exchange rate regime, RMB exchange rates against +852-3189-6888 various currencies can reflect the supply-demand condition of foreign currencies and is an important factor to judge the change of funds outstanding for foreign exchange. CMS foreign currency supply/demand indicator can be observed daily for reference. Forecasts based on this model and the announced values have high goodness of fit. Please read the important notice on the last page. 1 of 11 RICH资讯提供：超级超前的【超】资讯 +顶级金股池 +全行业发布最快的股票研究报告 +核心投资内参 +QQ/微信会员资讯服务 【研究发现价值，RICH传递财富】全国免费咨询热线：400 668 0581； QQ：1078174455；微信号：RICH资讯，或：rich-4006680581 Hong Kong Morning Daily C) To predict funds outstanding for foreign exchange also requires the Last Global Commodity chg % chg reference to other high-frequency indicators such as the expectation of price RMB appreciation, HIBOR-LIBOR spread, Hong Kong dollar exchange Brent Oil 111.44 -1.16 -1.03 rates and other typical capital flow indicators in emerging markets. Under Gold 1,330.0 3.64 0.27 our analytical framework, both international and domestic factors should LME Aluminum 1,790.0 -22.00 -1.21 be considered when judging the trend of international capital flows in LME Copper 7,041.0 -19.00 -0.27 emerging economies such as China. Based on long-term observation, BDI 1,636.0 15.00 0.93 changes in international capital flows to various emerging markets in Asia API Coal 84.65 0.20 0.24 are highly correlated, and international capital flows in these markets are Exchange /Currency Last chg % chg generally one to three months ahead of that in China. /Bond Market price USD/RMB 6.16 0.00 0.00 USD/HKD 7.75 0.00 0.00 What to Watch 1999～2013 1-YR RMB NDF 6.21 0.00 0.00 EUR/USD 133.67 0.74 0.56 3-M Libor 0.52 0.00 0.00 3-M Shibor 4.66 0.00 0.00 ： Economic HK Nil 10 YR US T-Note Yield 2.88 -0.02 -0.69 Data US：Nil Brent Oil One Year Date Ticker Stock Name Earnings 预告的研报早知道+机构攻略 140 2013/09/16 01023 SITOY GROUP Final 超前预告的正式研报内容 + 120 Date Ticker Stock Name Issue Price +100 80 Nil 60 40 0581 20 0 668 2013年前8个月周均涨累计48.8%Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 + 调研/会议纪要 Gold Commodity One Year + 2000 RICH资讯-研究发现价值，RICH传递财富 1500 1000 500 0 Sep-12www.181818.info Jan-13 May-13 全国免费咨询电话：400 提供：发布最快的最新股票研究报告金股池：盘前彩信预告 LME Aluminum Commodity One Year 2500 2000 QQ：1078174455；微信号：RICH资讯，或：rich-40066805811500 1000 500 【超】资讯：超级超前的特供资讯 0 Sep-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 ： Source Bloomberg Please read the important notice on the last page. 2 of 11 Hong Kong Morning Daily China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) Stock Pool Update Weekly 2013-9-16 Stock Price Latest 12- Month Upside EPS EPS P/E 1-Month Short Name Rating Analyst Code Currency Price Target Price Potential Currency 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E Performance Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods 589 Ports Neutral HKD 5.15 5.30 3% RMB 0.55 0.56 0.64 7.4 7.3 6.4 -8.0% Ivy Zhao 1880 Belle Buy HKD 11.00 16.39 49% RMB 0.52 0.61 0.71 16.8 14.3 12.3 -8.6% Ivy Zhao 1368 Xtep Neutral HKD 3.51 4.00 14% RMB 0.27 0.27 0.29 10.3 10.3 9.6 -11.4% Ivy Zhao 2020 Anta Sports Neutral HKD 9.56 9.14 -4% RMB 0.49 0.53 0.57 15.5 14.3 13.3 -5.4% Ivy Zhao 1361 361 Degrees Neutral HKD 1.84 1.45 -21% RMB 0.29 0.28 0.28 5.0 5.3 5.2 -5.2% Ivy Zhao 1968 Peak Sport Neutral HKD 1.72 1.48 -14% RMB 0.16 0.17 0.19 8.7 8.0 7.1 8.9% Ivy Zhao 2331 Li Ning Buy HKD 5.68 5.20 -8% RMB -0.10 0.18 0.20 N.A. 25.7 22.7 12.0% Ivy Zhao 3818 China Dongxiang Buy HKD 1.23 1.47 20% RMB 0.04 0.04 0.05 26.4 23.3 20.8 -13.4% Ivy Zhao 953 Meike Neutral HKD 0.42 0.30 -29% RMB 0.04 0.05 0.06 9.3 7.3 6.1 16.7% Ivy Zhao 1234 China Lilang Buy HKD 4.43 5.25 19% RMB 0.41 0.41 0.47 8.6 8.6 7.5 -7.7% Ivy Zhao 891 Trinity Buy HKD 2.79 4.63 66% RMB 0.21 0.25 0.30 10.6 8.9 7.4 -14.7% Ivy Zhao 873 C Taifeng Bed Buy HKD 1.55 2.86 85% RMB 0.52 0.65 0.80 2.4 1.9 1.5 -5.5% Ivy Zhao Metals & Mining 1818 Zhaojin Mining Neutral HKD 6.44 6.00 -7% RMB 0.43 0.38 0.34 11.9 13.5 15.1 1.6% Li Xiang 2899 Zijin Mining Neutral HKD 1.82 1.69 -7% RMB 0.14 0.15 0.12 10.3 9.6 12.1 -1.1% Li Xiang 358 Jiangxi Copper Buy HKD 16.00 15.20 -5% RMB 1.02 1.05 0.85 12.5 12.1 15.0 4.0% Li Xiang 3993 Cmoc Neutral HKD 3.09 3.10 0% RMB 0.19 0.20 0.21 12.7 12.5 11.9 -4.3% Li Xiang 2600 Chalco Sell HKD 2.82 1.60 -43% RMB -0.28 -0.11 -0.10 N.A.
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