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The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main

Trends 2016 – 2025

Lisbon, Portugal Christophe PILLOT September 20th, 2017 AVICENNE ENERGY

Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2016 • The Li- battery value chain Christophe PILLOT • xEV & ESS battery market + 33 1 47 78 46 00 • Forecasts & conclusions [email protected] THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

3000 400

Li-ion Li-ion Year year 300 / 195 M

/ / NiMH

2000 The Rechargeable Battery Tablets

Market and Main Trends 200 Units

2016 – 2026 Units 1000 165 M 100 Portable

Million PCs 0 0

Million 2000 2016 2000 2016 Tons of active materials Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

250000 3 Lisbon, Portugal 211 000 2,6 th September 20 , 2017 200000

2

150000 Tons 100000 $/Wh 1 50000 7 000 0,15 Christophe PILLOT 0 0 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 2000 2016 2000 2016 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 2 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments 120 000 The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends CAGR Li-ion 2010-2016: +25% 2016 – 2026 100 000

80 000 Others (, NAS, …)

60 000 Li-ion Lisbon, Portugal MWh NiMH September 20th, 2017 40 000 NiCD

20 000

0 Christophe PILLOT 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 [email protected] 3 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

The Rechargeable Battery 400 000 500 000 Market and Main Trends 450 000 2016 – 2026 350 000 400 000 300 000 Others (Flow battery, 350 000 NAS, …) 250 000 Li-ion 300 000

200 000 NiMH 250 000 MWh Lisbon, Portugal 200 000 September 20th, 2017 MWh 150 000 NiCD 150 000 100 000 Lead Acid 100 000 50 000 50 000 0 0

Christophe PILLOT

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 1990 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 4 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016 69 BILLION US$ in 2016 – Pack level1 8% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2006-2016)

The Rechargeable Battery 80 80 Market and Main Trends Others (Flow 70 70 OTHERS 2016 – 2026 battery, NAS, …)

60 60 AUTOMOTIVE 50 Li-ion 50 INDUSTRIAL 40 40

30 NiMH 30 E-BIKES

Billion US $ US Billion Billion US$ Billion 20 20 POWER TOOLS 10 NiCD 10 Lisbon, Portugal PORTABLE 0 0 September 20th, 2017 SLI

Lead Acid

2014 1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2016

1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc… INDUSTRIAL PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV Christophe PILLOT 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen + 33 1 47 78 46 00 DC converters, invertors…) not included concentrators [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 5 LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS

90 000 MWh - 23 B$ (1) CAGR 2006/2016 5 675 M small cells +23 % per year in Volume

Li-ion Battery sales, 2000: < 2GWh The Rechargeable Battery MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2016 Portable Phones Market and Main Trends 100 000 Electronics 17% 2016 – 2026 90 000 17%

80 000 Others 70 000 Portable PC 60 000 Industrial, 66%

50 000 ESS

Wh M Lisbon, Portugal 40 000 Auto, E-bus 2016: 90 GWh th September 20 , 2017 30 000 Auto, E-bus Excl. China 20 000 Auto, e-bus Auto, E-bus 17% China 10 000 Excl. China 33% - Electronic

devices

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2000 Electronic Christophe PILLOT devices Industrial, ESS (1) Cell level + 33 1 47 78 46 00 35% Others 5% [email protected] Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… 10% Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017 6 LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2016 WORLDWIDE

The worldwide Li-ion battery market The worldwide Li-ion battery market Company market share in 2016 in volume Company market share in 2016 in value(1) The Rechargeable Battery (small cells only) 6,4 B cells Estimated at B$ 31 in 2016 Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Others 3% 9% 8% 24% OTHERS 9% 31%

9% 10% Lisbon, Portugal 7% Zhuoneng 2% th September 20 , 2017 5% 5% 8% Optimum 4% 9% 2% BYD 4% 19% A123 CALB 7% 1% 2% AESC Microvast BAK 2% 2% COSLIGHT Others for Small cells: Chinese suppliers like Tenpower, DLG… YUASA First New Christophe PILLOT 1% (1) LIB battery pack market 1% Energy + 33 1 47 78 46 00 3% [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2017 7 LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 70% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT

The Rechargeable Battery LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 2016 Market and Main Trends pouch cell NMC 2016 – 2026 Cell Process 100% Margin Yield, Scraps Warranty 7% 4% 90% Operating profit 3%

80% Proces Yield Overheads

70% 3% Depreciation Sales & Adm 3% 60% Cathode cost

Production cost Production SGA, overhead Lisbon, Portugal 50% R&D 22% th R&D September 20 , 2017 40% 6% cost Utility Energy, 6% 30% utilities 20% Labor 4% 6% 10% Material Direct labor 4% 0% Depreciation Separator 7% 14% Other materials Christophe PILLOT 11% + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells [email protected] Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017 8 LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND

CATHODE 211 OOO T in 2016 Revenues: 4,75 B$ CELL PACK CAGR 06/16: +14% MANUFACTURERS MANUFACTURERS

ANODE Revenues: Revenues: The Rechargeable Battery 104 000 T 22,5 B$ 31 B$ Market and Main Trends Revenues: 1,16 B$ 2016 – 2026 CAGR 06/16: +13% Gross margin: Gross margin: <10% <10% ELECTROLYTE 103 000 T Revenues: 1,4 B$ CAGR 06/16 : 19%

Lisbon, Portugal September 20th, 2017 SEPARATOR 1 500 M m² Revenues: 1,6 B$ CAGR 06/16 : 15%

ANCILLARY

Christophe PILLOT Revenues: 1,5 B$ + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016 9 2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES 2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by 2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, application (3C) by form factor (3C) The Rechargeable Battery 6000 Market and Main Trends CAGR 16-25: + 6% 2016 – 2026 60000 5000 50000 Other Portable

Electronics 4000 40000 Tablets 3000 30000 Lisbon, Portugal Portable PCs cells/year M 2000 th MWh September 20 , 2017 20000 1000 10000 Cellular Phones

0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Li-P Li-ion Pr

2005 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 Christophe PILLOT Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1) + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses [email protected] (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 10 X-EV MARKET CAGR 2016-2025:+ 17% 200 000 185 GWh Why x-EV ? 180 000 Definition & segmentation 160 000 X-EV worldwide in 2016 140 000 E-buses

The Rechargeable Battery

Market and Main Trends By country buses

2016 – 2026 - 120 000 110 GWh PHEV & EV in By car makers China

100 000 EV By battery chemistry

for & Auto E X-EV forecasts 80 000 PHEV

MWh Lisbon, Portugal AVICENNE ENERGY & other 60 000 HEV September 20th, 2017 45 GWh analyst forecasts 40 000 Battery chemistry forecasts 20 000 Battery cost forecasts - Christophe PILLOT X-EV battery forecasts 2016 2020 2025 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 11 Growth 2015-2016: +2% HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2016 From 1,8 M to 1,84 M HEV 1,8 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, Penetration of hybrids in the global sales,

2000 - 2016 2000-2016

2,0 30% JAPON OTHERS The Rechargeable Battery 1,8 20% Market and Main Trends Million 1,6 2016 – 2026 10% USA 1,4 0% EUROPE

1,2 Penetrationof HEV

2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 1,0 Gazoline price impact on HEV market in

0,8 the US Lisbon, Portugal

th 600000 4 September 20 , 2017 0,6 3

0,4 400000

year / Gallon /

2 $

0,2 200000 1 0,0

0 0 Gasoline

HEV sales HEVsales per

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Christophe PILLOT 2000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, , FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 12 PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE

World excl. China growth +14% China is leading the P-HEV Chinese Growth + 21% market thanks to high incentives Others US 6% 24% The Rechargeable Battery 300000 OTHERS CHINA Market and Main Trends +16% SAIC CHINA 2016 – 2026 30% 250000 BYD JAPAN OTHERS 2% EUROPE

200000 AUDI

) 38% PORSCHE

units HYUNDAI 120 000 150000 VOLVO

Lisbon, Portugal 100 000 Europe HEV HEV (

th -

P DAIMLER

September 20 , 2017 ) 100000 BMW 80 000 China HONDA units 60 000 USA

50000 MITSUBISHI HEV HEV ( - 40 000 VW P 20 000 0 FORD Others TOYOTA Japan

Christophe PILLOT -

2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 2010 GM 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017 13

EV SOLD WORLDWIDE

World excl. China growth +14% China is leading the EV market Chinese Growth + 68% thanks to high incentives Others US Other China 4% 16% The Rechargeable Battery 600000 GAC Market and Main Trends JAPAN Chana 4% 2016 – 2026 +35% JMC 500000 JAC EUROPE 21% BAIC CHINA 400000 Zhidou 55%

Zotye ) Kandi BYD 300 000

units 300000 Others China Lisbon, Portugal BOLLORE 250 000 th EV ( PSA September 20 , 2017 Honda 200 000 200000 MITSUBISHI ) DAIMLER

units 150 000

FIAT ( GM

100000 EV Ford 100 000 Europe USA VW 50 000 0 SMART Others BMW Japan

Christophe PILLOT Toyota -

2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 2010 Renault 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 NISSAN [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017 14

XEV BUSES MARKET IN CHINA

xEV buses market in China: Rationales 132 000 xEV Buses sold in 2016 The Rechargeable Battery 140000 The Chinese government is working on addressing Market and Main Trends environmental issues. Central and local 2016 – 2026 120000 governments are engaged in subsidy policies to promote EV/PHV/FCV as new energy vehicles. The

100000 amount of subsidy for EV/FCV with low environmental impact is set high. As the subsidy 80000 policy is announced to be carried out until 2020, it is 116000 EV Bus predicted that this market will be on an expansion Lisbon, Portugal 88000 trend centering on EV. However, due to the th 60000 PHEV Bus September 20 , 2017 occurrence of the case of receiving subsidies illegally in 2015, the government has begun to 40000 strictly control the production of new energy vehicles after 2016. 20000 24000 16000 Christophe PILLOT 0 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 [email protected] 15 XEV BUSES MARKET IN CHINA xEV buses market in China: 132 000 xEV Buses sold in 2016 112 000 xEV Buses sold in 2015 YUTONG 18% 15% The Rechargeable Battery KINGLONG Market and Main Trends OTHERS 6% 2016 – 2026 33% KINGLONG ZHONGTONG ASIASTAR OTHERS 21% 12% 1% 53% ANKAI BYD 1% 3% DONGFENG FOTON ZHONGTONG 12% 1% 3% ASIASTAR Lisbon, Portugal GOLDEN GOLDEN BYD 1% ANKAI FOTON September 20th, 2017 DRAGON DONGFENG DRAGON 5% 4% 3% 4% 5% 2%

The new energy bus market in China is mainly made up of EV with a large amount of subsidy from the government, and there are many cases where older makers also produce PHV. As a result of the illegal receipt of subsidy occurred in 2015, publication of the company name and administrative guidance (penalty) from the government were carried out. Consequently, several makers including have Christophe PILLOT significantly reduced their market share in 2016, and old makers such as Yutong and Zhong Tong are expanding their + 33 1 47 78 46 00 market shares. [email protected] 16 LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION Korean companies start to move in Malaysia New production capacity in Europe and US

$ 562 M $ 562 M $ 360 M $ 600 M $ 1 700 M (1) 3-5 GWh 3-5 GWh 2-3 GWh 1 GWh 25 GWh Korea – 17% The Rechargeable Battery 2018 2018 2018 2019 2025 SAMSUNG Market and Main Trends $ 5 Bn LG 2016 – 2026 35 GWh SK 2017 EU -<1% Kokam SAFT USA – 2% FIAMM BOLLORE China – 53% LG Japan – 20% Johnson-Controls BYD Enersys GP Sony Lisbon, Portugal SAFT Lishen NEC COSLIGHT September 20th, 2017 Maxell ATL PEVE BAK YUASA B&K Wanxiang (A123) Others* – 7% SAMSUNG LG

Source: AVICENNE 2017 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 * OTHERS: Malaysia mostly (1) Government subsidies only [email protected] 17

THE LITHIUM ION BATTERY MARKET 2 FORECASTS 3 major limiters on batteries, for the development of 1- SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON CRITERIA 3- BATTERY COST Average Cell price The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 500 Margin Warranty 2016 – 2026 400 Overheads Sales & Adm

300 R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor $ / kWh / $ 200 Depreciation Scraps 100 Others Separator Electrolyte 0 Anode (1) Lisbon, Portugal 2- TIME TO MARKET 2010 2016 2020 2025 Cathode (1) th September 20 , 2017 • The research and development in this industry is very long Average Pack price and time consuming. 400 • Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Pack Cost Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony 300 Cell Manufacturing in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & Other Materials 200 polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago. Separator • LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) 100 Electrolyte

was invented in 1995 (20 years ago). kWh / $ Anode Christophe PILLOT • So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new 0 Cell Pack Cell Pack CellPack Cathode + 33 1 47 78 46 00 material in the battery industry. 2016 2020 2025 [email protected] (1) Active material only 18 HEV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS

HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured EV manufactured

5 100% 1,2 2,5 70 The Rechargeable Battery 4,5 90% 1,05 Market and Main Trends 2 1 60 2016 – 2026 4 80% 2

50 3,5 70%

0,8 World Excl.

0,8 China

3 60% 1,5 0,65 World Excl. 40 China World Excl. 0,8 1,25

2,5 China 50% 0,6 ion HEV

-

Million Million cars

Million Million cars kWh/ EV

Million Million cars 30 Lisbon, Portugal 1 0,45 2 3,9 40% %Li September 20th, 2017 0,4 0,35 0,5 1,5 3,0 30% 20 1,2 0,45 1 2,1 20% 0,5 0,2 0,3 0,8 10 0,24 0,5 1,1 10% 0,2 China China 0,1 0,18 0,08 0 0,02 0 0 0% 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 Christophe PILLOT 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 2015 2020 2025 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] HEV: 1kWh battery / car PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car 19 TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 2025 FORECASTS Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) needs (M$) CAGR 2016-2025: +17% CAGR 2016-2025: +12% The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 200 000 30000 2016 – 2026 180 000 25000 160 000 140 000 20000 120 000

100 000 15000

Lisbon, Portugal $ th 80 000 September 20 , 2017 M

MWh 10000 60 000 40 000 5000 20 000 - 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 2015 2020 2025 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV [email protected] EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China 20 X-EV BATTERY MARKET 2000 – 2025 IN M$ Cell Level Pack Level CAGR 2016-2025: +12% CAGR 2015-2025: +11% The Rechargeable Battery 30000 40000 Market and Main Trends 35000 2016 – 2026 25000 30000

20000 25000

15000 20000

$

$ M M M M 15000 Lisbon, Portugal 10000 September 20th, 2017 10000 5000 5000

0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 2015 2020 2025 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV Christophe PILLOT EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 21 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016 Lead Acid Batteries 2016 In volume (MWh) +367 GWh for > US $ 33,4 Billion

SLI 500 000 79% The Rechargeable Battery Industry, ESS Market and Main Trends Others (Flow 450 000 2016 – 2026 E-bikes battery, NAS, …) 400 000 Others 16% Li-ion 350 000 medical, marine, others… % In volume

300 000

NiMH 250 000

Industrial Batteries – Lead acid batteries GWh Lisbon, Portugal 200 000 58 GWh for US $ 10,4 Billion September 20th, 2017 NiCD 150 000 Telecom Lead Acid 100 000 22% 50 000 26% 8% UPS Other 0 44%

Stationary, ESS

2005 2010 2015 2016 Christophe PILLOT 2000 Motive + 33 1 47 78 46 00 % In volume [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 22

LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS From 90 GWh in 2016 to 300 GWh CAGR 2016/2025 +15 % per year in Volume Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015 350 000 2016: 90 GWh The Rechargeable Battery Auto, E-bus Auto, E-bus Market and Main Trends Excl. China China 300 000 13% 2016 – 2026 CAGR 15/25 30% (Realistic) 250 000 Others 16% Electronic Industrial, ESS 200 000 devices 6% Others Wh M 40% Industrial, ESS 22% 11% 150 000 Lisbon, Portugal th 2025: 300 GWh September 20 , 2017 100 000 Auto, E-bus China 22% Auto, E-bus Auto, E-bus China 50 000 Auto, e-bus Excl. 17% Excl. China 43% China 21%

- Electronic devices 6% Industrial, ESS

Electronic 7%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 devices Others Christophe PILLOT 18% 11% + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… [email protected] Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016 23 TAKEAWAYS Battery Market 2015-2025 RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET CAGR = +6% / Li-ion>+10% WORLDWIDE 2000-2025 847GWh Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications 628 GWh Others

In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li- ion for HEV 432 GWh LIB 325 GWh The Rechargeable Battery P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: MWh 210 GWh NiMH Market and Main Trends 15 B$ market in 2016 - 28 B$ in 2020 & 38 B$ in 2025 with NiCd 2016 – 2026 high numbers in China (2016: US$ 3,6 Billion for xEV and US$ 4,8 Billion for xE-Buses) Lead Acid EV expectations attract large Chemical companies 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards > 115 B$ 2,8 HEV will account for less than 3% of the auto sales in 2020 (Pack level) 94 B$ 17 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020

Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25 63 B$ 38 Lisbon, Portugal th Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, 43B$ 10 September 20 , 2017 30B$ but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid from 2020. 25B$ A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent 49 a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (+0%) for other application (ESS, stationary, LIB for xEV (+13%) LIB for Others* (+12%) industrial…) will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in Christophe PILLOT the next 5 years (CAGR 2016-2025) + 33 1 47 78 46 00 ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, [email protected] at the system level is under 150 $/kWh Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, … 24 THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT AVICENNE ENERGY The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 [email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

Lisbon, Portugal September 20th, 2017

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] 25