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The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018-2030

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The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018-2030 The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018-2030 Christophe PILLOT th September 18 , 2019 Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Lyon, France Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2018 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market Christophe PILLOT • Focus on xEV batteries + 33 1 44 55 19 90 [email protected] • Forecasts & conclusions AGENDA The market in 2018 by technology, applications & battery suppliers The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Li-ion components market & value chain xEV market in 2018 xEV forecasts up to 2030 Lyon, France Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2030 September 18th, 2019 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 [email protected] 2 OEM INVESTMENT IN VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION Carmakers to invest more than $90 Billion in EV Ford will invest $11 billion by 2022 to launch 40 new electric cars and hybrids worldwide The Rechargeable Battery Volkswagen plan to spend $40 Billion by 2030 to build electrified versions of its 300-plus Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 global models Daimler will spend at least $11,7 billion to introduce 10 pure electric 40 hybrid models Nissan pledged to launch 8 new electric vehicles and hit annual sales of 1 million electrified vehicles by 2022 Toyota will launch 10 Evs by the early 2020s and sell 5,5 million electrified vehicles, including Lyon, France hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, by 2030 September 18th, 2019 BMW will offer 25 electrified (12 fully electric) vehicles by 2025 GM pledging to sell 20 all-electric vehicles by 2023 Honda says two-thirds of total car sales to be electrified models by 2030 Chinese automakers, all have publicized aggressive investment plans Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 [email protected] Source: Ted Miller, Ford, AABC Japan 2018 (From Reuters Jan 2018 Publication) – Avicenne Energy 3 CARMAKERS TO INVEST MORE THAN $300 BILLION IN EV Mazda 0,3 FAW 0,3 Chery 0,4 Honda 0,5 Volvo 0,7 PSA 0,8 Tata (India) 0,9 Jaguar Land Rover 2,3 The Rechargeable Battery BAIC 2,5 Market and Main Trends BYD 3,9 2018 – 2030 Dongfeng 5 SAIC 5 Geely 5 Mahindra (India): 6 JAC 6 GAC 7 BMW 7 Great Wall (China) 8 Lyon, France GM 8 Tesla 10 Renault 10 September 18th, 2019 Nissan 10 Fiat Chrysler 10 Ford 11 Toyota 14 Changan 15 Hyundai 20 Daimler 42 Volkswagen 91 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 0 50 100 [email protected] Source: Reuters January 2019, Avicenne Energy 4 WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET OVERVIEW Battery market in value (2016-2018, global, $bn, all market segments, all technologies) Expected CAGR 18-30 (%) The Rechargeable Battery 95 +8% Market and Main Trends 88 2018 – 2030 82 Primary 14 ~ +2-3 % 13 (1) 12,5 Rechargeable +7-9% Lyon, France 81 69 75 September 18th, 2019 2016 2017 2018 Christophe PILLOT (1) Non rechargeable – Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, Avicenne – Based on selling price from manufacturer to retailer + 33 1 44 55 19 90 [email protected] Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, AVICENNE ENERGY 2019 5 THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Portable PC sold per Year (Million) 2000 400 Li-ion Year year 300 1500 / The Rechargeable Battery / NiMH 155 M Market and Main Trends 1000 200 Tablets Units 2018 – 2030 Units 500 100 164 M Portable PCs 0 Million 0 Million 2000 2018 2000 2018 Tons of cathode active materials Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh) 400000 3 Lyon, France > 340 000 2,6 th 300000 September 18 , 2019 2 200000 Tons $/Wh 1 100000 7 000 < 0,15 Christophe PILLOT 0 0 + 33 1 44 55 19 90 2000 2018 2000 2018 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 6 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2018 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (>70% market share) The Rechargeable Battery 400 000 700 000 Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 350 000 600 000 300 000 Others (Flow battery, 500 000 NAS, …) 250 000 Li-ion 400 000 200 000 NiMH MWh Lyon, France MWh 300 000 150 000 NiCD th September 18 , 2019 200 000 100 000 Lead Acid 50 000 100 000 0 0 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 7 LI-ION IN 2018 - MAIN APPLICATIONS >160 000 MWh - 31 B$ (1) CAGR 2008/2018 +24 % per year in Volume 2000: < 2GWh Li-ion Battery sales, The Rechargeable Battery MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2017 Portable Phones Market and Main Trends 180 000 Electronics 17% 17% 2018 – 2030 160 000 140 000 Others 120 000 Portable PC 66% 100 000 Industrial, ESS M Wh 80 000 Lyon, France Auto, E-bus 2018: 160 GWh 60 000 China September 18th, 2019 Auto, E-bus 40 000 Auto, e-bus Auto, E-bus China Excl. China 20 000 Excl. China 44% - Electronic 20% devices 2002 2016 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2000 Electronic Industrial, ESS Christophe PILLOT devices (1) Cell level 5% + 33 1 44 55 19 90 20% Others [email protected] Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… 11% Source: AVICENNE Energy 2019 8 Growth 2017-2018: +9% HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2018 From 2,3 M to 2,5 M HEV 2,5 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2000 - 2018 2000-2018 3,0 30% JAPON TOYOTA OTHERS The Rechargeable Battery 20% Market and Main Trends Million 2,5 2018 – 2030 10% USA EUROPE 2,0 HEV of Penetration 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1,5 Gazoline price impact on HEV market in the US Lyon, France 1,0 600000 4 th September 18 , 2019 3 400000 0,5 year 2 $ / Gallon 200000 1 0,0 0 0 Gasoline HEV sales HEV sales per 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Christophe PILLOT 2000 2016 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 + 33 1 44 55 19 90 [email protected] Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 9 PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE > 535 000 IN 2018 World excl. China growth +18% China is leading the P-HEV Chinese Growth + 100% market thanks to high incentives Others US 22% 600000 11% The Rechargeable Battery OTHERS Market and Main Trends CHINA CHINA 2018 – 2030 500000 +37% EUROPE 35% US EUROPE 400000 32% ) 200 000 China (+100%) units 180 000 300000 Europe 160 000 (+25%) HEV HEV ( Lyon, France - P 140 000 ) 200000 120 000 USA September 18th, 2019 (+40%) units 100 000 100000 HEV ( 80 000 - P 60 000 40 000 0 Others 20 000 Japan Christophe PILLOT (-30%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2010 - + 33 1 44 55 19 90 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2019 10 EV SOLD WORLDWIDE> 1,4 M IN 2018 World excl. China growth > 65% China is leading the EV market Chinese Growth > 65% thanks to high incentives OTHERS US 4% 17% 1600000 OTHERS The Rechargeable Battery 1400000 CHINA Market and Main Trends EUROPE EUROPE 2018 – 2030 1200000 16% US > 65% CHINA 1000000 63% ) 1 000 000 units 800000 900 000 China (+70%) EV EV ( 600000 800 000 Lyon, France 700 000 400000 ) September 18th, 2019 600 000 units 500 000 200000 EV EV ( 400 000 0 300 000 USA (+130%) 200 000 Europe (+30%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2010 100 000 Christophe PILLOT Japan (+50%) - + 33 1 44 55 19 90 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 [email protected] Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2019 11 BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS 2018-2030 Applications covered Parameters analysis The Rechargeable Battery Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Main segment trends Market and Main Trends Tablets 2018 – 2030 Power Bank Power need trends (volume, Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools weight, capacity, running time) Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Penetration rate for each Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars, Toys Chemistry, each form factor, Lyon, France Drones Hoverboard 2018 -2030 Forecasts September 18th, 2019 E-bikes Power tools Security lighting OEM strategies and positions Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV, E-buses Industrial motive (forklift) Main drivers & limiters Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large) Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 [email protected] 12 2030 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES 2000-2030 LIB market, MWh, by 2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, application (3C) by form factor (3C) The Rechargeable Battery 6000 Market and Main Trends CAGR 17-30: + 4% 2018 – 2030 60000 5000 50000 Other Portable Electronics 4000 40000 Tablets 3000 30000 Lyon, France Portable PCs cells/year M 2000 MWh 20000 September 18th, 2019 1000 10000 Cellular Phones 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 2000 Li-Pouch Li-ion Pr Christophe PILLOT Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1) + 33 1 44 55 19 90 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses [email protected] (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 13 TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.
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