Secerno CARES Background Report BLEISWIJK Health Center (Zuid Holland , Muncipality Lansingerland)

Address Dorpstraat 3 2665 BG WOZ ( Property value ) Information Lansingerland (Bergschenhoek, Kruisweg, Berkel En Rodenrijs, De Rotte, Bleiswijk)

Date measurements/findings 2017 Muncipality Average WOZ (Real Estate) value €264,000 Average house price South Holland €329.532 Total WOZ (Real Estate) value (2016) Million €13,169 Average WOZ (Real Estate) value housing (2016) €226,000 Growth WOZ (Real Estate) value 2016 vs 2015 3.4% Number of WOZ (Real Estate) objects 25,894 Area municipality Lansingerland in hectares (2015) 5637 Residents 60232 https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2016/32/woz-waarde-stijgt-na-jarenlange-daling http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb/publication/?DM=SLNL&PA=70262ned&D1=0,2,6,16,20,25,28,31,41&D2=418,685&D3=3- 7&HDR=T&STB=G1,G2&VW=T

Population : 1 Jan 2017

Lansingerland %Population Population Bleiswijk 20% 11,919 Bergschenhoek 30% 18,075 Berkel en Rodenrijs 50% 30,048 100% 60,042

Total Residents Lansingerland 0-5 5-10 15-20 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 90-95 90+ Total 2017 4077 4615 4426 3960 2708 2456 3317 4293 4727 5337 4621 3784 3043 2811 2277 1623 1084 629 209 45 60042 2018 4100 4600 4500 4100 2800 2600 3400 4300 4700 5300 4800 4000 3200 2800 2400 1700 1100 700 200 50 61350 2019 4000 4600 4500 4100 2900 2700 3500 4400 4700 5200 4900 4100 3300 2900 2400 1800 1200 700 200 50 62150 2020 4100 4600 4600 4200 2900 2800 3700 4500 4800 5100 4900 4200 3400 2900 2500 1900 1200 700 300 50 63350 2021 4100 4600 4600 4200 3000 2900 3800 4600 4800 5100 4900 4300 3600 3000 2500 1900 1300 700 300 100 64300 2022 4100 4600 4600 4300 3100 2900 3900 4600 4800 5000 4900 4400 3700 3100 2600 2000 1400 700 300 100 65100 2023 4100 4500 4600 4300 3100 3000 3800 4600 4800 5000 4900 4500 3800 3200 2600 2000 1400 800 300 100 65400 2024 4100 4500 4600 4300 3200 3000 3900 4600 4800 5000 4900 4600 3900 3300 2700 2100 1500 800 300 100 66200 2025 4100 4500 4600 4300 3200 3100 3900 4600 4900 4900 4900 4600 4000 3300 2700 2200 1500 800 300 100 66500 2026 4100 4500 4600 4400 3300 3100 4000 4600 4900 4900 4900 4700 4100 3400 2800 2200 1600 900 300 100 67400 2027 4100 4500 4600 4400 3300 3200 4000 4700 4900 4900 4900 4700 4200 3500 2900 2300 1600 900 400 100 68100 2028 4100 4400 4500 4400 3300 3200 3900 4600 4900 4900 4900 4700 4300 3600 3000 2300 1700 900 400 100 68100 2029 4100 4400 4500 4400 3300 3300 3900 4600 4800 4900 4900 4700 4300 3700 3000 2400 1700 1000 400 100 68400 2030 4000 4300 4500 4400 3400 3300 3900 4500 4800 4900 4800 4700 4400 3800 3100 2500 1800 1000 400 100 68600

0-5 5-10 15-20 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 90-95 90+ 2017 6.80% 7.70% 7.40% 6.60% 4.50% 4.10% 5.50% 7.10% 7.90% 8.90% 7.70% 6.30% 5.10% 4.70% 3.80% 2.70% 1.80% 1.00% 0.30% 0.10% 2018 6.70% 7.50% 7.30% 6.70% 4.60% 4.20% 5.50% 7.00% 7.70% 8.60% 7.80% 6.50% 5.20% 4.60% 3.90% 2.80% 1.80% 1.10% 0.30% 0.10% 2019 6.40% 7.40% 7.20% 6.60% 4.70% 4.30% 5.60% 7.10% 7.60% 8.40% 7.90% 6.60% 5.30% 4.70% 3.90% 2.90% 1.90% 1.10% 0.30% 0.10% 2020 6.50% 7.30% 7.30% 6.60% 4.60% 4.40% 5.80% 7.10% 7.60% 8.10% 7.70% 6.60% 5.40% 4.60% 3.90% 3.00% 1.90% 1.10% 0.50% 0.10% 2021 6.40% 7.20% 7.20% 6.50% 4.70% 4.50% 5.90% 7.20% 7.50% 7.90% 7.60% 6.70% 5.60% 4.70% 3.90% 3.00% 2.00% 1.10% 0.50% 0.20% 2022 6.30% 7.10% 7.10% 6.60% 4.80% 4.50% 6.00% 7.10% 7.40% 7.70% 7.50% 6.80% 5.70% 4.80% 4.00% 3.10% 2.20% 1.10% 0.50% 0.20% 2023 6.30% 6.90% 7.00% 6.60% 4.70% 4.60% 5.80% 7.00% 7.30% 7.60% 7.50% 6.90% 5.80% 4.90% 4.00% 3.10% 2.10% 1.20% 0.50% 0.20% 2024 6.20% 6.80% 6.90% 6.50% 4.80% 4.50% 5.90% 6.90% 7.30% 7.60% 7.40% 6.90% 5.90% 5.00% 4.10% 3.20% 2.30% 1.20% 0.50% 0.20% 2025 6.20% 6.80% 6.90% 6.50% 4.80% 4.70% 5.90% 6.90% 7.40% 7.40% 7.40% 6.90% 6.00% 5.00% 4.10% 3.30% 2.30% 1.20% 0.50% 0.20% 2026 6.10% 6.70% 6.80% 6.50% 4.90% 4.60% 5.90% 6.80% 7.30% 7.30% 7.30% 7.00% 6.10% 5.00% 4.20% 3.30% 2.40% 1.30% 0.40% 0.10% 2027 6.00% 6.60% 6.80% 6.50% 4.80% 4.70% 5.90% 6.90% 7.20% 7.20% 7.20% 6.90% 6.20% 5.10% 4.30% 3.40% 2.30% 1.30% 0.60% 0.10% 2028 6.00% 6.50% 6.60% 6.50% 4.80% 4.70% 5.70% 6.80% 7.20% 7.20% 7.20% 6.90% 6.30% 5.30% 4.40% 3.40% 2.50% 1.30% 0.60% 0.10% 2029 6.00% 6.40% 6.60% 6.40% 4.80% 4.80% 5.70% 6.70% 7.00% 7.20% 7.20% 6.90% 6.30% 5.40% 4.40% 3.50% 2.50% 1.50% 0.60% 0.10% 2030 5.80% 6.30% 6.60% 6.40% 5.00% 4.80% 5.70% 6.60% 7.00% 7.10% 7.00% 6.90% 6.40% 5.50% 4.50% 3.60% 2.60% 1.50% 0.60% 0.10%

Muncipality Langsingerland Population Estimate Lansingerland 2017-2030 Author: Bart Waasdorp Department: Team Planontwikkeling & RO (Environment/Safety) Legal Version: 1.1 Date: 21 februari 2017 Filenumber: T17.03240

Age Group Composition Langsingerland

90+ 90-95 85-90 80-85 75-80 70-75 65-70 60-65 55-60 50-55 45-50 40-45 35-40 30-35 25-30 20-25 15-20 15-20 5-10 0-5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Ageing residents remain stable to 2021

Population Change

Death

Leaving Residents

New Residents

-2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500

Births 730 New Residents 1003 Leaving Residents -1943 Death -347 Nett Change 2016 -557 -0.92%

2017 Residents Lansingerland 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Facts Dorpsstraat 3 in Bleiswijk:  The first foundation stone was laid in 1983  2016 Value € 1,000,000  Average huis price in South Holland : € 329,532  Muncipality rent and costs € 40 to 60 per month http://www.huizenzoeker.nl/woningmarkt/zuid-holland/

Medical center and healthcare recovery hotel based in former Bleiswijk town hall The health center the following health care facilities and providers :

 Medical recovery hotel Bleiswijk (Herstelhotel Medisch Hart Bleiswijk)  Doctors practice “De Gruijl”  Physio therapist “Berkelhoek”  Child Physio Therapy  Kring Pharmacy Bleiswijk  “Laurens” home care  GGZ Nederland “Organisation for mental care and addiction facilities  GGZ Delfland – GR1PP  Lansingerland Practice for child psychology  SkinCare Medical Center Bleiswijk “Huidzorg Medisch Hart Bleiswijk”  Sport injury science Rotterdam  Midwife Center Lansingerland  Ergonomics, Diet and sports advice  Podiatrist - Feet Body and Mind Loes Schweers  Natural treatment Therapie Carole v/d Bosch  Home Care Shop “Medisch Hart Bleiswijk”

On 1 January 2007, the municipality of Bleiswijk joined the municipalities of Bergschenhoek and Berkel and Rodenrijs to form a new municipality called Lansingerland.

1. Langsingerland main points in 2016  Residents as of 1 Jan 2017 60.042 1000 more than 2016 divided as follows : o Bleiswijk 11.919 (+ 135 inwoners) o Bergschenhoek 18.075 (+ 156 inwoners) o Berkel en Rodenrijs 30.048 (+ 712 inwoners)  The number of inhabitants is 180 less than the previous (estimated) forecast. An important reason is that in the previous forecast, housing construction 2016 was estimated to increase 380 homes, while the most current data shows an increase of 313 homes. A more limited increase in housing results in a smaller population growth rate (approximately -160).  Latest housing stock, numbers almost match the expected housing estimate made in July 2016: o Berkel and Rodenrijs: new building 141, demolition / merging 8, Hergerborch additional 61 o Bergschenhoek: new building 97, demolition / merge 5 o Bleiswijk: new building 30, demolition / merger 3

Total: New Build +268, Demolition / Merge -16, Hergerborch +61

 Additional observations are, that there were fewer people than expected in the age categories

o 20-40 years, -155 Less o 50-65 years: -205, Less o On the other hand, a more than expected increase in the age range o 0-50 years, +100.

There were more children than expected in the age range

o 0-10 years, also +100, of which more than 30 more births.

At the age of 65 there is no significant deviation from the previous year's forecast.

 In absolute numbers we find out over the past year: o Population growth is evenly distributed among young people, adults and seniors;  After a dip in 2015, there are now 730 births, 33 more than the forecast. This seems to be catching up with the previous year.  As expected, there are more and more residents in the age range of 20-25 years. This does not automatically mean that young people stay longer at home: the reason is that the contingent of young people continues to grow for 20 years, and does not move to other municipalities.

 On January 1, 2017, 730 babies were registered, which is in line with the relatively high birth rate in Lansingerland. In Berkel and Bleiswijk more babies were born than expected; In Bergschenhoek, the number of births was approximately equal to the forecast.  543 people have reached 66 years of age, reaching the age of AOW (State Pension), or may soon enjoy their private pensions.  With 60,042 inhabitants and 23,255 homes, the average household size is 2.58. This is almost the same as previous years.  Trends from the period 2001-2016 and the method of application in the forecast

A review of the building of houses and the increase of population per 5-year period gives an insight into the ratio of population growth and the increase in housing. For the period up to 2016, we use the official CBS figures. Before January 1, 2017 we use our municipal data. By mid-year, Statistics Netherlands will release the definitive population figures, after which we can correct the forecast as needed.

The graph below shows different trends over the last 20 years:

 The increase in the size of different age groups (the height of the lines), mainly due to the balance moves;  Increase in the the average age (shift to the right);  The number of births, related to the number of women aged 20-40 years;  The stable dip in the age group 20-25 years;

These observations form a basis for assumptions of population development. Because not all data is redirected, assumptions have been made where necessary. The uncertainty of the calculation model is therefore related to uncertainty about assumptions, and the uncertainty about extrapolating historical values.

This prognosis attempts to give the best possible indication of the development of the population of Lansingerland. Until 2030, the biggest uncertainty is housing construction.

The increase in population is strongly dependent on it. A smaller size of housing construction means that the population grows less rapidly.

One second uncertain factor is immigration: how many immigrants live in Lansingerland, or that migrants stay permanently in Lansingerland, and whether there will be family reunification.

3. Housing development Expectation. The figures for future housing construction are based on the following assumptions: - The expected housing for the coming years is based on land utilities plus private construction; - demolition of houses, additions other than construction, and administrative corrections are not taken into account. For the immediate future there is a reasonable picture of the properties to be delivered: these are under construction, a license has been requested, whether developers and corporations are in consultation with the municipality on the realization of housing plans. The scope is about 2 years, after which it is unclear how the housing market develops.

4. Migration balance and household size By 2030 there is a population growth, in conjunction with the increase in housing construction. From 2030 there is a stable situation, after which there will be a limited collapse in the housing market (if no longer being built). This force is based on the following assumptions:

 The moving balance of the population over 50 is zero  The composition and size of households in different age groups remains constant.

Statistics Netherlands has data on the size of Lansingerland households of recent years. The household size per age group is stable or slightly growing. The household is calculated according to the age of the main occupant. In a multi-person household, this is often the oldest man. The household size, according to the age class of the main occupant, is given

0-15 Year Children, donot own house, resident aged between 25-50 years 15-25 Year Average 1,5 people per household 25-50 Year Average 3,1 people per household 50-75 Year Average 2,3 people per household (increasing trend) 75-85 Year Average 1,6 people per household (increasing trend) 85+ Average 1,3 people per household (increasing trend)

Based on historical data, the effect the new building has on the population composition can be determined. There are some clear developments:

 Of the 15-20 year olds, more than 19% leave in the next five years (study, housing in the city). This is a constant percentage.  There is a fairly unambiguous distribution of newcomers to age category:

Years Perc 0-5 9,6 % 5-10 11,4 % 10-15 4,3 % 15-20 0 % 20-25 0 % 25-30 6,2 % 30-35 27,9 % 35-40 23,0 % 40-45 10,9 % 45-50 4,4 % 50-55 1,6 % 55-60 0,7 % 60 + 0 %

Furthermore, the average family size at in-homes is 2.41, similar to previous years. An example: Per 100 newly built houses there will be 23.0% x 100 x 2.41 = 55 people aged 35-40 years.

5. Births related to the historical population data of the municipality In the pre-Vinex era there were about 500 births per year. The Vinex delivered both more homes and children: the number of births rose sharply in the years around 2010. After that, the number of births decreased to around 700 per year. The expectation is that the number of births will rise slowly to 750 a 800 per year. The TFR (number of births per 1,000 women per age) in Lansingerland is a third overall higher than the Dutch average. The TFR of the Netherlands declines slowly, as Lansingerland remains the same. Because housing construction is phased over more than a decade, the assumption is that the TFR remains well above the Dutch average and slowly declines until 2030. From that year, a TFR will be held between that of Lansingerland (weighs slightly heavier) and the Netherlands. A town like Lansingerland appears to be more loved by households with young children than a large municipality.

TFR (number of births per 1000 women per age) in Lansingerland

Age Women 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 Nederland Current 0,2% 2,5% 9,2% 13,1% 6,8% 1,2% Lansingerland 2017 0,4% 4,6% 12,8% 16,9% 7,8% 1,4% Lansingerland 2030 0,3% 3,8% 11,4% 15,4% 7,4% 1,3%

TFR (number of births per 1,000 women per age)

The birth rate directly affects the number of children in different age groups in Lansingerland:

The age range from 0 to 4 years (pre-school) and 4 to 12 years (primary education) stabilize as seen throughout Lansingerland. Per core or per district, there may of course be an increase or decrease depending on the age structure of the district in question. The number of children in high school age will increase slightly in the coming years.

6. Composition of population for the next 13 years : The population composition changes gradually. It is hardly noticeable, but by showing both the history of the past 17 years and the future 13 years in a chart, the differences are rapidly rising. The number of inhabitants aged 35- 55 years has grown sharply in recent years, but is now stabilizing. The number of 65 plus has shown a steady rise, which continues in the coming years. In thirteen years there are 50% more 65 plus than now. Also the age group below it will continue to grow in the coming years. The group of 25 to 35 years has been fairly large in the past but will grow. The reason is the absolute size of the number of young adults, of which a large part continues to live in their own municipality.

7. Sterfte, gerelateerd aan de historische bevolkingsgegevens van de gemeente Voor de sterfte wordt aangehouden dat de wijziging van leeftijdsgroepen het resultaat is van verhuizingen en overlijdens. Uit CBS-gegevens blijkt dat de sterfte tot 55 jaar binnen de gemeente Lansingerland zeer gering is, en weinig invloed heeft op de bevolkingsprognose. Bij de hogere leeftijdsgroepen is gekeken hoe een leeftijdsgroep (bijvoorbeeld van 60-65 jaar) na 5 jaar is veranderd. Deze veranderingen zijn voor de prognose geëxtrapoleerd. Het resultaat daarvan

Death, related to the historical population data of the municipality For mortality, it is maintained that the change in age groups is the result of relocations and deaths. CBS data show that

mortality to 55 years within the municipality of Lansingerland is very small, and has little impact on the population forecast. Higher age groups looked at how an age group (for example, 60-65 years) changed after 5 years. These changes are extrapolated for the forecast. The result after this:

Age Group Decrease (Years) after 5 Years 55 – 60 0,5% 60 – 65 2,3% 65 – 70 4,7% 70 – 75 8,1% 75 – 80 16,3% 80 – 85 31,6% 85 – 90 50,4% 90 – 95 65,8%

Compared with the period around the turn of the century, it has been observed that the decline has decreased. People are thus older, or are less likely to move out of Lansingerland at a later age, or more seniors move to institutions within the municipal boundaries.

Distribution of men-women

The ratio of male-female in Lansingerland is about 50% -50% till the age of 70 years; The deviations of this distribution are too small to be taken into account separately. After the 75th year, the ratio between men and women is different. The ratio per January 1, 2016:

Age (Year) Men Women 70-75 47% 53% 75-80 48% 52% 80-85 46% 54% 85-90 38% 62% 90+ 31% 69%

8. Sheltered housing (nursing and care homes) The sheltered residence is based on data from 2000 - 2016 from Lansingerland and the CBS. The percentages of the different groups who can no longer live independently:

Perc Of the Age 23,9% 85+ 4,6% 75-85 7,8% 50-75 1,7% 0-50

These are people with physical or mental disabilities.

The graph shows that extramuralization has increased sharply over the last 10 years, but in the meantime it stabilizes. At the highest age (over 95 years) there is a continuing need for intramuralization.

9. Surveys of number of residents Lansingerland The data used in this overview until 1 January 2017 are the population numbers determined by CBS and Citizen Affairs (Burgerzaken). The forecasts from 2017 are rounded to 100s per age group and at the highest age group in fifty. The summation of the age groups may therefore differ from the total.

Age Nederland Age Utrecht Age Zuid Holland Age Groningen

18-49 18-49 18-49 18-49 23% 26% 25% 50-64 26% 26% 50-64 28% 24% 50-64 30% 50-64 65-74 65-74 65-74 65-74 14% 15% 14% 75-84 22% 75-84 75-84 21% 75-84 23% 22% 14% 12% 12% 85+ 11% 85+ 85+ 12% 85+

Extra-Intra Nederland Extra-Intra Utrecht Extra-Intra Zuid Holland Extra-Intra Groningen

34% 41% Extramuraal 42% Extramuraal 42% Extramuraal Extramuraal Intramuraal Intramuraal Intramuraal 59% 58% 58% Intramuraal 66%

Group or Individual Group or Individual Group or Individual Group or Individual Nederland Utrecht Zuid Holland Groningen

Lead by Lead by Lead by Lead by Group Group (BGG) Group (BGG) 9% Group (BGG) 8% 8% (BGG) 10% Lead by Lead by Lead by 31% Lead by 31% Individual Individual 31% Individual 39% Individual 60% 59% (BGI) 53% (BGI) (BGI) 61% (BGI) All All Personal All Personal Personal Care (PV) All Personal Care (PV) Care (PV) Care (PV)

SOM Somatic (Medical Condition/Restriction) Conditions by Province PG Psychogeriatric Condition/Restriction PSY Psychiatric Condition/Restriction VG Mentally Challenged in Understanding ZG Mentally Challenged in Context 35.0% LG Physically Challenged 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% Zuid Holland 10.0% Gelderland 5.0% 0.0% Nederland SOM0 SOM6 SOM7 PG65 PSY18 VG0- VG18 ZG LG -64 5-74 5+ + + 17yr + Nederland 4.9% 5.9% 30.9% 12.8% 16.6% 4.4% 16.4% 0.9% 7.2% Utrecht 5.4% 5.9% 30.6% 13.2% 17.3% 4.5% 16.2% 1.5% 5.4% Gelderland 4.7% 5.9% 31.3% 11.7% 16.2% 4.5% 17.7% 1.1% 7.0% Groningen 4.7% 5.7% 27.7% 10.0% 19.9% 4.9% 16.9% 1.2% 9.0% Zuid Holland 5.3% 6.0% 31.7% 14.4% 17.1% 3.8% 15.0% 0.7% 6.0%

medischhartbleiswijk– BLEISWIJK (South Holland)

Dorpstraat 3 2665 BG

Other Care Homes showing number of Residents.

BUS Stops

Train Stops (NS)

Supermarkets Albert Heijn, JUMBO, LIDL

Hospitals

Source: file:///C:/Users/barry/Downloads/Bevolkingsprognose%20gemeente%20Lansingerland%202017-2030.pdf