1 Regional Population and Household Projections, 2011–2040
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Regional population and household projections, 2011–2040: Marked regional differences Andries de Jong1 and Coen van Duin2 The regional population and household projections for 2011 to 2040 presents future developments in the population and number of households per municipality in the Netherlands. This article discusses five important future developments. First of all, the population of the Netherlands will continue to grow over the next 15 years. Growth will be particularly strong in the Randstad (meaning the urban conurbation of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht), but on the periphery of the country the population is expected to decline. Secondly, the number of households is also expected to continue to grow strongly throughout the Netherlands – only in north-east Groningen and Zeeuws-Vlaanderen will growth level off or even turn to decline. Thirdly, although the size of the potential labour force has increased continuously over the last few decades, it is expected to decline significantly in the near future. Decrease in the potential labour force, already a fact in many regions, will spread to almost all regions. Only in a strip that runs from The Hague Agglomeration, through Utrecht, Greater Amsterdam and Flevoland to north Overijssel will the potential labour force continue to grow over the coming 15 years. Fourthly, ageing of the population will accelerate in the coming decades as the post-war baby-boomers enter the over-65 age group. Although the number of people aged 65 and older will increase throughout the Netherlands, the increase will be stronger on the periphery of the country (where the strongest population decline is also expected) than in more urbanised areas, such as the Randstad. Fifthly, the number of immigrants will increase significantly. Most immigrants currently live in the Randstad and this is not expected to change. 1. Introduction The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Statistics Netherlands (CBS) published the fourth regional population and household projections in October 2011. The regional projections are published every two years and presents future developments in the Dutch population in each municipality, according to age, gender, ethnic group and household type. The new regional projections cover the period from 2011 to 2040. The projections aim to present the most likely future developments. Actual future developments may differ from these to a greater or lesser extent. The regional population and household projections for 2011 to 2040 can be found online at www.pbl.nl, www.cbs.nl and www.regionalebevolkingsprognose.nl. The methodology used in the projections is described for example in De Jong et al. (2005; 2007). 2. Background to the regional projections 2011–2040 The projections for 2011 to 2040 provide an update of the 2009 PBL and CBS regional projections and are based on the most recent national CBS population and household projections of 2010/2011. CBS predicts stronger population growth for the country as a whole than was estimated in the previous national projections – an increase up to 17.8 million in 2040 compared with the previously predicted 17.5 million. As a result, the growth figures provided in the previous regional projections will change for some municipalities. The most recent regional developments in birth and death rates and internal and international migration were included in the new projections. Assumptions new housing construction were also updated, based on the most recent data. This resulted in additional changes compared with the previous regional projections. One of the largest uncertainties for the coming 15 years is the rate of new housing construction, as it is very difficult to make realistic predictions in this respect. The credit crisis has had a significant impact on the construction of new housing, with a strong decline in the number of houses built in 2010. Partly based on the national housing projections of the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO, 2010), it seems highly probable that new-housing production will remain at a low level in the coming years. In response to the credit crisis, many municipalities have postponed 1 PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 2 Statistics Netherlands (CBS) 1 or cancelled their housing development plans. For example, the city of Amsterdam will carry out construction of the IJburg II residential area in phases (Amsterdam, 2011) and the municipality of The Hague has postponed its housing development plans within the Kijkduin Master Development Plan (The Hague, 2011). Postponing or cancelling development plans, considering the increase in population growth expected in the new CBS projections, may lead to increased pressure on the future housing market. This is potentially a particular problem in the Randstad, where the increase in the number of households may exceed the increase in the official housing stock. The regional projections assume that this may result in an increase in new forms of housing, such as containers made suitable for living purposes, in particular for students. It is as yet unclear what the long-term effects of the credit crisis will be on the housing market and what impact they will have on spatial planning. Haffner and V an Dam (2011) expect the results of the crisis to remain apparent for some time, although with great variation between regions. The long-term effects of the global crisis will be less apparent in growth regions than in shrinkage regions. 3. Strong population growth versus considerable population decline The population of the Netherlands increased by over 1 million between 1995 and 2010 (see Figure 1). However, growth was not stable during this period: it levelled off in 2003 but began to increase again 5 years later. Population growth is expected to continue over the coming 15 years, resulting in a population of 17.5 million in 2025. million 18 17 16 15 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Figure 1. Population, between 1995 and 2025 Source: population projections 2010–2060 (CBS) The population of the Netherlands has been increasing for several decades. However, on a regional level growth is no longer self-evident, and in some regions on the periphery of the country the population is now in decline. This is the case in east Groningen, the Delfzijl region and south Limburg. A slight decline is also seen in a number of other areas on the periphery of the Netherlands, such as the Achterhoek region, Zeeuws-Vlaanderen and north Friesland. Population decline is also seen in the Randstad, especially in the areas to the south-east of Rotterdam – in the eastern and south-eastern parts of South-Holland. The population also decreased in the Delft en Westland region between 2000 and 2005, but this has since once again turned into growth. In contrast to the regions that experience decline, there are also regions with above-average growth. These are mostly in the Randstad – in the large and medium-sized cities and surrounding municipalities. Continued population growth is expected for the Netherlands as a whole up to 2025. However, this national trend no longer applies to all the Dutch COROP (Coordination Commission Regional Research Programme) regions. Three types of regional growth can be seen; regions with strong population growth, regions with considerable population decline and regions where growth is close to zero – and for which it is not possible to predict whether the result will be growth or decline. 2 Map 1 shows the population growth between 2010 and 2025 based on the current regional projections for the 40 COROP regions. There are four regions with a population decline of more than 2.5%: east Groningen, Delfzijl region, Achterhoek region and Zeeuws-Vlaanderen. The decline in these regions totals about 25,000 people. Decline is also expected in south-east Drenthe and the three Limburg regions, but this is expected to remain below about 2% up to 2025. Adding these regions to the previously mentioned decline regions brings the total decline to about 50,000 people. The population decline predicted for the Achterhoek region, north Limburg, the middle of Limburg and south-east Drenthe is expected within a few years. It is predicted to continue throughout the projection period in these regions as well as in the regions already experiencing population decline. According to De Klerk (2010) and Latten and Kooiman (2011), regional differences in perceived attractiveness as places to settle play an important role in the growth or decline of particular regions. This attractiveness is low in regions on the periphery of the country, leading to a decline in population over all age groups. The projections show that both young people and families will move away from these regions and that few immigrants will take their place. The population decline is also due to natural population decline. For example, the birth rate in south Limburg has been low for some time, and far below the population replacement level. Furthermore, the death rate is high in these regions due to the ageing of the population. All these trends result in population decline; few families and therefore few children, many old people and therefore high death rates, and the migration of young people and families away from the regions with almost no replacement by immigrants. This also results in lower pressure on the housing market in these regions, and therefore generally leads to lower house prices compared with other regions (see Van Dam, 2010). In contrast to this decline, strong population growth will also take place; particularly in the west of the Netherlands. Strong growth regions are found in both the northern and southern wings of the Randstad. The northern wing includes Greater Amsterdam and the surrounding Zaanstreek and Flevoland. The Utrecht region is also expected to achieve growth of almost 10% up to 2025. The southern wing of the Randstad includes the The Hague Agglomeration and the adjacent Delft and Westland regions.