The Owner’s Role in Project Risk Management Committee for Oversight and Assessment of U.S. Department of Energy Project Management Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract Number DEAM01-99PO8006 between the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, con- clusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09518-2 (book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-54754-7 (PDF) Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org COMMITTEE FOR OVERSIGHT AND ASSESSMENT OF U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY PROJECT MANAGEMENT KENNETH F. REINSCHMIDT, Chair, Texas A&M University, College Station DON JEFFREY BOSTOCK, Lockheed Martin Energy Systems (retired), Oak Ridge, Tennessee DONALD A. BRAND, Pacific Gas and Electric Company (retired), Novato, California ALLAN V. BURMAN, Jefferson Solutions, Washington, D.C. LLOYD A. DUSCHA, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (retired), Reston, Virginia G. BRIAN ESTES, Consulting Engineer, Williamsburg, Virginia DAVID N. FORD, Texas A&M University, College Station G. EDWARD GIBSON, Jr., University of Texas, Austin THEODORE C. KENNEDY, BE&K, Inc., Birmingham, Alabama MICHAEL A. PRICE, Project Management Institute, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania Staff RICHARD G. LITTLE, Director, Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment (through November 2004) MICHAEL D. COHN, Program Officer DANA CAINES, Financial Associate PAT WILLIAMS, Senior Project Assistant v BOARD ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE CONSTRUCTED ENVIRONMENT PAUL GILBERT, Chair, Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas, Seattle, Washington MASSOUD AMIN, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis RACHEL DAVIDSON, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York REGINALD DesROCHES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta DENNIS DUNNE, California Department of General Services, Sacramento PAUL FISSETTE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst LUCIA GARSYS, Hillsborough County, Florida WILLIAM HANSMIRE, Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas, San Francisco, California HENRY HATCH, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (retired), Oakton, Virginia AMY HELLING, Georgia State University, Atlanta THEODORE C. KENNEDY, BE&K, Inc. SUE McNEIL, University of Illinois, Chicago DEREK PARKER, Anshen+Allen, San Francisco, California HENRY SCHWARTZ, JR., Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri DAVID SKIVEN, General Motors Corporation, Detroit, Michigan MICHAEL STEGMAN, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill WILLIAM WALLACE, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York CRAIG ZIMRING, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Staff RICHARD G. LITTLE, Director, Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment (through November 2004) LYNDA L. STANLEY, Executive Director, Federal Facilities Council MICHAEL D. COHN, Program Officer DANA CAINES, Financial Associate PAT WILLIAMS, Senior Project Assistant vi Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro- cedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Re- view Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confi- dential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Philip R. Clark, Nuclear Corporation (retired), Ernest L. Damon, Foster Wheeler Development Corporation (retired), Fletcher H. (Bud) Griffis, Polytechnic University, Henry J. Hatch, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (retired), Sam L. Savage, Stanford University, and Alan Schriesheim, Argonne National Laboratory (retired). Although the reviewers listed have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Andrew C. Lemer, The Matrix Group, Inc. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for mak- ing certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this re- port rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. vii Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 5 2 OWNERS’ ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES 8 Introduction, 8 Owner’s Role, 9 Development of Risk Management Excellence, 12 Managerial Attitudes Toward Risk and Uncertainty, 13 3 PROPERTIES OF PROJECT RISKS 16 Introduction, 16 General Project Risk Characterization, 17 Consequences of Increased Project Uncertainty, 18 Risk Management Strategies, 19 4 RISK IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS 22 Introduction, 22 Methods of Risk Identification, 23 Methods of Qualitative Risk Assessment, 24 Methods of Quantitative Risk Analysis, 31 Conclusion, 39 ix x CONTENTS 5 RISK MITIGATION 41 Introduction, 41 Risk Mitigation Planning, 41 Risk Response and Mitigation Tools, 42 6 CONTINGENCY 52 Introduction, 52 Definition, 52 Setting the Contingency, 55 Project Policies and Procedures, 58 7 ACTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT 61 Introduction, 61 Risk Management Plan, 62 Waterfall Diagrams, 62 Project Risk Register, 65 8 PORTFOLIO RISK MANAGEMENT 70 Introduction, 70 Program-Level Risk Analysis, 71 Project and Portfolio Budgets, 73 9 CONCLUSIONS 77 REFERENCES 79 APPENDIXES A Biographies of Committee Members 83 B Statement of Task 90 Acronyms and Abbreviations BICE Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment CD-0 critical decision 0, approval of mission need CD-1 critical decision 1, approval of system requirements and alternatives CD-2 critical decision 2, approval of project baseline CD-3 critical decision 3, authorization to complete implementation