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Important Note Important Note Airport Authority Hong Kong (AAHK) is responsible for preparing the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) Master Plan 2030 and commissioning the associated consultancies. At different stages of these consultancies, the consultants produced various documents for AAHK’s consideration, culminating in the production of final reports. Where a final report was not produced, the consultants’ work was consolidated into the HKIA Master Plan 2030 Technical Report. As the reports were produced at different times, they may contain outdated or inconsistent contents. The HKIA Master Plan 2030 was not drawn up solely on the basis of the various consultancies commissioned by AAHK, but also has incorporated input from relevant airport stakeholders as well as AAHK’s own input on the basis of its solid experience in airport operations. Hence, for any differences between the consultancy reports and the HKIA Master Plan 2030, the latter and the Technical Report should always be referred to. Airport Authority Hong Kong July 2011 HKIA 2030 Primary Traffic Forecast AIRPORT AUTHORITY OF HONG KONG Variation to Contract Ref: C004-09 FINAL REPORT 30 July 2010 International Air Transport Association 800 Place Victoria, B.P. 113 Montreal, Quebec Canada H4Z 1M1 Tel: +1 (514) 874 0202 Fax: +1 (514) 874 2662 www.iata.org Preface IATA is pleased to submit this report presenting HKIA 2030 primary traffic forecast. it summarizes the approach followed and provides HKIA forecasts for passenger traffic, cargo traffic and movements. Contacts Mr. Laurent Delarue, Head of Airport Consulting, IATA Consulting, is responsible for this project and remains at your disposal for any inquiries concerning this document at the following coordinates: e-mail: [email protected] Address: International Air Transport Association 800 Place Victoria, P.O. Box 113, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H4Z 1M1 HKIA 2030 Primary Forecast – Final Report 3 Table of Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................... 3 Chapter 1 Executive Summary .................................................................................. 17 Chapter 2 Introduction ............................................................................................... 28 1. Context and Objectives........................................................................................ 28 2. Methodology ........................................................................................................ 29 2.1 Overall approach and structure of the report................................................................................... 30 2.1.1 Step 1 – Current and Historical Situation................................................... 30 2.1.2 Step 2 – Demand Growth Drivers .............................................................. 30 2.1.3 Step 3 – Demand and Movement Forecasts ............................................. 31 2.1.4 Step 4 – Industry Interviews....................................................................... 32 2.2 Data Sources................................................................................................................................... 33 2.2.1 PaxIS/AirportIS Traffic Database ............................................................... 35 2.2.2 Travel Agents Bias ..................................................................................... 36 2.3 Forecasting approach...................................................................................................................... 37 2.3.1 HKIA forecasting model ............................................................................. 37 2.3.2 Mainland China regions forecasting models.............................................. 39 2.3.3 The regression analysis module ................................................................ 39 2.3.4 The adjustment module.............................................................................. 45 2.3.5 The movement module .............................................................................. 47 2.3.6 Sensitivity analysis ..................................................................................... 48 Chapter 3 Current and Historical Situation................................................................. 50 3. Passenger Market ............................................................................................... 50 3.1 Mainland China................................................................................................................................ 50 3.2 Greater PRD.................................................................................................................................... 51 3.3 Hong Kong International Airport ...................................................................................................... 52 3.3.1 OD/TT and Regional Segmentation........................................................... 52 3.3.2 Airline segmentation................................................................................... 57 3.3.3 Route network ............................................................................................ 57 3.3.4 HKIA competitive position .......................................................................... 65 4. Cargo Market....................................................................................................... 69 4.1 Mainland China................................................................................................................................ 69 4.2 Greater PRD.................................................................................................................................... 70 4.3 Hong Kong International Airport ...................................................................................................... 71 4.3.1 OD/Transshipment and Regional Segmentation ....................................... 71 4.3.2 Cargo traffic by flight type .......................................................................... 75 4.3.3 HKIA Competitive Position on GPRD ........................................................ 76 HKIA 2030 Primary Forecast – Final Report 4 Chapter 4 Demand Growth Drivers............................................................................ 78 5. Economic Development....................................................................................... 80 5.1 Economic Development of Hong Kong ........................................................................................... 80 5.1.1 Past Economic Development..................................................................... 80 5.1.2 Future Trends for Economic Development ................................................ 82 5.2 Economic Development of Mainland China .................................................................................... 83 5.2.1 Historical Overview .................................................................................... 83 5.2.2 Outlook for Economic Development .......................................................... 83 5.3 Economic Development of the Pearl River Delta Region (PRD)..................................................... 84 5.3.1 Historical Overview .................................................................................... 84 5.3.2 Future Trends............................................................................................. 85 5.4 Economic Development of the Yangtze River Delta Region........................................................... 87 5.4.1 Historical Overview .................................................................................... 87 5.4.2 Future Trends............................................................................................. 87 5.5 Economic Development of Rest of Mainland China........................................................................ 89 5.5.1 Bohai .......................................................................................................... 89 5.5.2 Rest of Mainland China.............................................................................. 90 5.6 World Economic Development ........................................................................................................ 91 6. Regulation and Policy: Air Service Agreements .................................................. 92 6.1 Hong Kong....................................................................................................................................... 92 6.2 Hong Kong and Mainland China ..................................................................................................... 95 6.3 Mainland China................................................................................................................................ 96 6.3.1 US – China agreement............................................................................... 96 6.3.2 Regional Air Service Agreements .............................................................. 96 6.3.3 Open-skies ................................................................................................. 97 6.3.4 Domestic sky deregulation......................................................................... 97 6.4 Cross-Strait Direct Links.................................................................................................................. 98 7. Regulation and policy: Trade Agreements..........................................................
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